3 Trends Roofers Are Whispering About Right Now & What This Could Mean

Could these 3 trends that roofers are reporting to me be an indicator of where we're at as an industry and what might be coming? Well, I'll let you be the judge. I am so grateful for the opportunity to talk with a lot of roofers at the Florida Roofing and Sheet Metal Association annual convention, which is a massive event not just for Florida roofers because folks from all over the country fly in. And whether it was in private conversations while I was hanging out in the TAMKO booth or with a group of contractors at the social gathering we held in the evening, or joining other industry experts on a Roofers Coffee Shop panel, these 3 trends continued to emerge. I'm going to share them with you one by one to help you digest this information and possibly adapt your company to best serve your homeowners. Welcome or welcome back. My name is Adam Bensman. I am thrilled to have you here. Let's rock and roll. Trend number 1. Roofers kept sharing with me that their homeowners were using AI to compare estimates from other roofing companies. Now, I know that this might seem like common sense and you might have been using AI yourself to evaluate whether it's a car buying decision or truck buying decision or buying any product for that matter. But homeowners began using AI to not only compare the estimates, but to start vetting roofing companies. Now, this is a whole different landscape than what we've discussed in the past, which was how SEO was replaced by what was known as AEO or answer engine optimization. And then later, conversations like the one I had recently with Marcus Sheridan about how websites need to be optimized for AI agents to go source their information. This is a way that homeowners are using AI to say, hey, compare these estimates, compare these roofing companies. But the byproduct of that was most fascinating to me, and that is homeowners now essentially have a roofing expert consultant to help them make decisions, which means that homeowners are being armed with incredible information to ask very intelligent follow-up questions to their roofing companies. Now, I recently filmed a video which you can go back and watch to run an experiment running 3 estimates through AI to share with you what I found and how you may wish to prepare your estimates to, again, provide a better experience not only for your homeowners, but so AI gets a clear read on who you are as a company and can make an accurate recommendation. So if you're not already keeping this in mind, it may influence how you wish to prepare your estimate, what information to include in your estimates. So that way, when a homeowner who's trusting AI to make a recommendation, you're able to help give AI all the information it needs to truly get a clear snapshot on your company. Now, that's trend number 1. Now I want to ask and just get you thinking, How will you change your estimates to appeal to AI in a way that it can make accurate recommendations? Well, that's for you to figure out and go watch my previous video if you haven't seen it already. Now, trend number 2, I had multiple roofing companies share with me that sales cycles have extended to 2 and even 3 years, meaning homeowners they ran an estimate for 2 years ago or 3 years ago continued to delay the project, and now they're getting the phone call to get the roof done. Now, one might be able to say, hey, well, Florida is a unique market. There's a lot of second homes. Maybe people had less of a sense of urgency to replace those homes. All of that could be true. Could it be pressure from insurance carriers saying, hey, we're no longer going to write a policy for the roof because it's X years old? All of that could be true. But it's interesting to see this emerging trend of homeowners saying, hey, I didn't want to do the roof before, but 2 or 3 years later they're making the decision now. So could this be a further sign of potential economic uncertainty in buying patterns where homeowners are delaying these large projects for, for as long as humanly possible? It could be. But when we pair that with another trend that was opened up in this longer sales cycle is an increase in repairs. Now, this is curious to me because as the economic pressure that many homeowners may have been experiencing or reporting, they might be looking for more cost-effective solutions to solve roof challenges or roof problems now. And for that reason, repairs may be a little bit more enticing than they were in the past. In fact, I had one roofer share with me that he had done— was it 2 or 3 repairs? I can't recall the exact number from the conversation, I know it was multiple before the homeowner called back to have them finally replace the roof. And what was interesting is the roofer says, hey, you know, I just— if they would have just done the roof the first time, it would have saved them money. But again, if homeowners are thinking cost effective, then the repairs might make more sense to them logically. Now, the reason I want to share this trend with you is because with all of these trends, we may see this as a threat. Homeowners don't want to make buying decisions. They want to move forward with repairs. But the savvy roofing company owner or manager or salesperson will be spotting these opportunities and looking for better ways to serve their homeowners. I want to share a few of those ideas with you right now. Idea number 1 is if you weren't marketing for repairs in the past, this might be an opportunity for you to begin doing that. Now, I've been pretty vocal in the past about my position on repairs. I wasn't a really big fan of them, but like any wise person, I might look at things I said in the past and not agree with them. And I will say that in today's changing times, repairs can be a big opportunity to generate new leads and new business from. In fact, I had a couple of roofing companies share with me that if it weren't for repairs, they don't know how their door-to-door sales team would stay afloat. So where's the opportunity? The opportunity here is to, one, market for repairs and to enhance your sales process to share true-to-life stories that you're having with homeowners who've delayed projects or repair projects to later replace them, that it could in fact actually be more expensive to repair it once, repair it twice, repair it 3 times, and then replace the roof versus replacing it now. Plus, the chances of interior damage reduce dramatically with one full replacement versus multiple repairs. And if we compare that with a very strong sales process, leveraging incredible financing offers, then you know what, maybe a $3,000 repair as an example may look less appealing than a full roof replacement for just a few hundred dollars as a monthly payment. Again, these are for illustrative purposes only, and it's up to you to work with your financing partner to provide the best financing offers for your homeowners. Now, trend number 3. And this one can get a little scary. And that is a lot of Florida roofing companies have reported extreme revenue decline. In fact, some companies have reported up to 75% reduction in revenue. Now, these are anecdotal stories based on conversations that I've had with roofers. No, I didn't get a chance to peel back the curtains and get a look at their books. I want to share with you the conversations I was having. The spirit of this, I think, has been pretty consistent among many roofing companies, especially those that are not in a storm market. Now, as we begin looking at the data and there was a recent study conducted, which I'm going to pull up here so I can cite accurately, was conducted by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University in an article published, The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity, First Quarter 2026. And as you can see up on this screen, From 2024, we had a dip. 2025, we kind of went into single digits, by the way, 1, 2%, maybe a little higher than 2%. And in 2026, we're between that 1, 2% range with an estimated sharp decline to about a half a percent growth in Q1 of 2027. Now, as we observe all of this data, it doesn't mean it has a crystal ball and it is definitely not doom and gloom. It's important to note the relevance of these studies as we begin to take in this information, because remodeling activity is a catch-all and includes elective projects. But what this could be an indicator of is economic patterns or buying patterns of homeowners. Now, when I see things like this and I pair it with conversations around reduction in revenue, conversations that I'm hearing about lead costs going up, lead volume going down, and homeowners extending the timeline to replace a roof, favoring repairs over replacement, it does paint a picture. And what that picture can mean for all of us is just thinking how to run a lean, healthy, smart business while we protect our margins so we can maintain the financial integrity to survive these turbulent times that as we go through a downswing in the cycle. Now, observationally, I have seen, of course, since around 2020, a huge run for the roofing industry. And starting about last year, that run has turned into, well, not a great trend that's being reported from roofers all over the country. But like most things, we have upswings, we have downswings. And it is not— now is the time to run a smart, lean company, finding the opportunities to serve homeowners. Because over every structure in America is a roof. And I shouldn't say every— maybe if it's in construction, there's no roof. Maybe if it's uninhabited, there's no roof. But if folks are living in that house, there's a roof. And at some point in time, that roof will need to be replaced. Not want, not desire, but need to be replaced. So my call to action to you is to stay strong through these times. Run a smart business, spot these opportunities, Look ahead at what's coming and start making those moves now. And if you want help, I invite you to join us in the trenches of the Roofing Strong Alliance. Now membership is available at no additional cost to the TAMKO EDGE certified contractors. You can click the link in the description to learn more or apply to join.