The Next 36 Months in D2D Roofing Sales (Dead, Dying, or Booming?)

What is the next 36 months of door to door roofing sales look like? Is door to door dying or is now the time to double down, or should you be looking for another job? All that and more is what I'm going to answer in this video. Because recently I interviewed Marcus Sheridan. You can check it out here. And we talked about what homeowners want out of a roof, barring experience. And a gentleman named Joe made this comment, basically saying, hey, it sounds like door to door is dying. And, and how can I adapt door to door to the new modern way that homeowners want to buy a roof? Now, I've covered this in the 2025-2028 Roofing Market report. It's free. There's a link in the description. You should get a copy right now. There's no catch and you should read it. But there's a part that I didn't fill in as much and that was the gaps around why door to door is going to get harder but addressing whether or not it's going to go anywhere for good. And let's turn our attention to what this actually looks like in a practical setting before we do. Welcome or welcome back. My name is Adam Bensman and I'm really excited to help you get a first mover advantage in your market by seeing what's coming and again, taking the first moves so you can make even more sales. Now let's get started. All right, now if we take a look at this circle which represents all of the roofs that people will buy. So this is going to, we're just going to call it the roof market, say roof replacement market. And we could specify that this is residential roofing sales. Now if we look at this market, there are different segments of this market and I'm going to break them down. This segment right here represents homeowners. I'm going to use HO for short, shopping for a roof. Now, these are the people, if we look at it, have a high level of awareness, meaning they know that they have a roof problem or a roof that needs to get replaced. A high level of awareness and a high search intent. Okay, These are people that are jumping on Google and looking for a roof replacement. Now, outside of this segment is another segment right here. And these are the people who. It's on their radar. But the urgency, which I'm going to make a list here, their urgency to, to get the problem fixed is, let's say, not that high. So as a result, they're not actively searching out a roof replacement, but they will be Receptive to an ad if they see it in an ad, or I'm going to call it DM. DM, direct mail letter. I know DM in our day and age stands for DMs and slipped into someone's DMs, but I mean direct mail letter. And again, these are the people that, that aren't necessarily like the problem is hot, it's on my mind. I need to jump on the Internet right now and find a roofer. But it's the people that are sitting there thinking to themselves, oh man, I know I got to get that roof done soon. I'm just going to put it off. We'll wait till next year. And then they see an ad that calls to them. Maybe it's a promotion, some sort of free upgrade or a discount on stone coated steel or class four impact resistant shingle, or a financing offer that creates enough urgency for them to say, hey, you know, it's been on my radar. But finally now, now I'm going to take action. So that's that segment right here. Okay? Now this entire area that is untouched on this left hand side of the screen here are homeowners who have no idea that they even have a problem. Okay? That they have a roof problem. If and when I talk with folks who do door to door sales, specifically in the storm damage environment, they will report up to 90% of the roofs that they sell. The homeowner falls into this category of not even being aware of the fact they have a problem. Now, as I outline in the 2025-2028 Roofing Market report, I do share that door to door sales is getting harder. Homeowners are favoring working with companies that have a tech forward experience that they're giving instant answers to, online estimators, easy, fast scheduling and a transparent experience. Now, at the same time, the entire market segment that's right here, they don't even know that they need to replace their roof. This is the segment where door to door is. And all I'm going to repeat is and always will be ripe all of this. Which again is this graph to scale. You decide? I don't know. Share it with me in the comments below whether you think these percentages are accurate. You know, it's just shy of 50% of the of people that need a new roof have no idea that they have a roof problem. And this could be blended even in the retail environment. People not knowing that it's time for them to replace the roof, that they should or need to replace the roof. And this Market, again, as people move further from this side over here actually will create less competition in the door to door space. Now, again, the level of awareness for someone who has no idea if they have a roof problem, low, their search intent low, their urgency low. And this is why folks that have experimented with going from door to door sales to the retail sales can often struggle because the sales experience is different. When you're showing up at the door, your job is to identify a problem that most people had no idea even existed, get the homeowner to take ownership of the problem, and then get them to take action. So if we look at the three levers that need to be moved in a buying experience, which I'll outline here, lever level, one is awareness of the problem. Okay. Two is a high need and three is under recognition of the brand. So when we look at retail sales, people are aware of the problem, they know they need a roof. And if they jump online and search your company out, they now are aware of your brand. But in the door to door landscape, when we are looking at this segment of people right here, again, a homeowner has no idea that they even need a roof. They are not aware of the problem, they don't know they need a new roof and they've never heard of you. So when we sell in each of these different methods, again, this being more of a retail environment right here, retail, and this one being more of a storm damage environment, they are very different sales experiences. And as you can see as we outlined each of these, when you're selling retail, you spend a lot less time here. And when you're selling storm, you spend a lot more time here. They're actually the inverse. Now there's good news and bad news, and let's break that down here. Here. The good news is that door to door, let's actually switch colors here. The good news is that door to door is not dead. Okay? And in my opinion, it will not die. It will not die entirely. Now, there are companies that have been built on door too. And don't get me wrong, I am all for having diversity in your lead sources, but there are companies. In fact, I have a friend of mine who sold his roofing company for tens of millions, many, many tens of millions of dollars. And they don't spend any money on marketing. They're strictly door to door and they're in many states. So door to door is not dead. It is not dying. However, door to door is getting harder. And what's happening here is we are seeing a wave and I break this down again in that report, in the 2025-2828 Roofing Market report, because the new era of homeowners have different buying patterns and their buying patterns, they're just less receptive to people showing up unannounced. I've talked to some members of ours in RSRA in Florida as an example, really competitive states where people just straight up aren't showing up to the door. So your threats also include at the moment over saturation. But I have some good news to share on that front because things are changing and again, so let's just say competition is a problem. Now. What's happening right now is, is that we've reached peak shingle production. And I'm hitting these numbers off the top of my head. This is ARMA data and by the way, if anyone finds that I misquoted these, please just drop a comment. I'm going from my memory here, from the data that was shared from a distributor in Peak Covid, there was 172 million squares of shingles produced in 2024. And that number had been slowly increasing since COVID So 2020 up here to 2024, the production just continued to increase and we saw that through again. Availability of shingles and pricing going up. It was just the absolute boom. Well, we ended up dropping down to about 160 million this year, projected down to about 140 million to level out. What we're essentially seeing is pre 2020 roofing demand. And what's happened here, this is again looking at the forecast of the industry, is that we have seen a surge in the amount of companies. So here's the number of roofing companies and here's the years for 2020 and then we'll put 2025 and again the amount of companies just kept increasing and that's the trend of the new companies. But if we put a cross reference here on the demand, our demand is actually doing this and that's the inverse the demand. So. So we are going to see more companies struggling. And my prediction over the next few years, we're going to see a lot of these smaller companies that were born in the boom end up busting through these difficult times. I do think we're kind of right at the point of this bubble of door to door being a really big challenge because there's just so many people and we're starting to see all the changes for the storm damage folks. We're seeing the raise in the rising deductibles, the limited coverage from ACV or rps. Policies. We're seeing carriers fighting claims higher than ever before and the process being dragged out. So now all these changes are coming to a head, but this sliver of the market right here is just not going anywhere. So the good news is, door to door. Nah, it's not dead. Will it go away for good? No, it's always going to be there. But we got to get ready to adapt to how it's getting harder now. Although door to door is becoming more difficult, it makes it even more important for you to have a solid pitch at the door. So jump into this very next video and I'll help you ace it in just 10 seconds.