The Roofing Recession Has Begun - Moves to Make Now

The roofing industry is changing quickly, and if you're not keeping up with the trends, it means you're falling behind. And that's why I want to share this video with you. It's a highlight reel of the most significant trends coming to the roofing industry. This is pulled from my 2025 to 2028 Roofing Market Report: Future Trends Every Company Must Know or Get Left Behind. Get a free copy in the link in the description and enjoy this video. What does the next 36 months of door-to-door roofing sales look like? Is door-to-door dying, or is now the time to double down? Or should you be looking for another job? All that and more is what I'm going to answer in this video. All right, now if we take a look at this circle, which represents all of the roofs that people will buy, so this is gonna— we're just gonna call it the roof market, say roof replacement market, and we could specify that this is residential Roofing sales. Now, if we look at this market, there are different segments of this market and I'm going to break them down. This segment right here represents homeowners. I'm going to use HO for short, shopping for a roof. Now, these are the people, if we look at it, have a high level of awareness, meaning they know that they have a roof problem or a roof that needs to get replaced. A high level of awareness and a high search intent, okay? These are people that are jumping on Google and looking for a roof replacement. Now, outside of this segment is another segment right here, and these are the people who, it's on their radar, but the urgency, which I'm gonna make a list here, their urgency to get the problem fixed is, let's say, not that high. So as a result, they're not actively searching out a roof replacement, but they will be receptive to an ad if they see it. Now, this entire area that is untouched on this left-hand side of the screen here are homeowners who have no idea that they even have a problem, okay, that they have a roof problem. And when I talk with folks who do door-to-door sales, specifically in the storm damage environment, they will report up to 90% of the roofs that they sell, the homeowner falls into this category of not even being aware of the fact they have a problem. This is the segment where door-to-door is and all, I'm gonna repeat, is and always will be right. All of this, which again, is this graph to scale? You decide. I don't know, share it with me in the comments below whether you think these percentages are accurate. You know, it's just shy of 50% of the, of people that need a new roof have no idea that they have a roof problem. And this could be blended even in the retail environment, people not knowing that it's time for them to replace the roof, that they should or need to replace their roof. And this market, again, as people move further from this side over here, actually will create less competition in the door-to-door space. So if we look at the 3 levers that need to be moved in a buying experience, which I'll outline here, lever— level 1 is awareness of the problem, okay? 2 is a high need, and 3 is under recognition of the brand. So when we look at retail sales, people are aware of the problem, they know they need a roof, and if they jump online and search your company out, they now are aware of your brand. But in the door-to-door landscape, when we are looking at this segment of people right here, again, a homeowner has no idea that they even need a roof. They are not aware of the problem. They don't know they need a new roof, and they've never heard of you. So when we sell in each of these different methods, Again, this being more of a, uh, retail environment right here, retail, and this one being more of a, uh, storm damage environment, they are very different sales experiences. And as you can see, uh, as we outlined each of these, when you're selling retail, you spend a lot less time here, and when you're selling storm, you spend a lot more time here. They're actually the inverse. Now, there's good news and bad news, and let's break that down here. The good news is that door-to-door is not dead, okay? And in my opinion, it will not die. It will not die entirely. However, door-to-door is getting harder. And what's happening here is we are seeing a wave, and I break this down again in that report, in the 2025 to 2028 Roofing Market Report, because the new era of homeowners have different buying patterns. And their buying patterns, they're just less receptive to people showing up unannounced. So let's just say competition is a problem. I do think we're kind of right at the point of this bubble of door-to-door being a really big challenge because there's just so many people. And we're starting to see all the changes. For the storm damage folks, we're seeing the raising, the rising deductibles, the limited coverage from ACV or RPS policies. We're seeing carriers fighting claims higher than ever before and the process being dragged out. So now all these changes are coming to a head. But this sliver of the market right here is just not going anywhere. So the good news is door-to-door, nah, it's not dead. Will it go away for good? No, it's always going to be there. But we got to be ready to adapt to how it's getting harder. I think I'm going to wait to do my roof. You've been hearing this more and more, and the data backs it up. A rising amount of homeowners are delaying home improvement projects, and it's for one very peculiar reason. So in this video, I'm going to share with you what you can do in the home and two, how you completely transform the conversation so you can not only win the business, but you can win it today. So what I want to break down is a few pieces of data so you can understand why what we're— I'm going to show you today can be so powerful. And then give you the actual scripting process that you can start using in the home. All right. So let's start with one of the reasons people don't delay, as in they take action, is because they see in their mind's eye and say, okay, this is going to increase my home value, therefore it's a good decision. So does roofing increase home value? I'm guessing some of you might be saying yes and others saying no. And I think it is an answer like this. It depends. And it depends on the product and how you position it. And that's what we're going to be covering today, because as we see all of these consumer trends shifting and the data supporting it, homeowners are stuck in their houses longer than they have been in the past. During the 2020 times, interest rates were so low. And now, no matter what home you're in, if you sell your house and buy another house at about the same value, but you're in today's interest rates, your mortgage is going to nearly double. On top of that, the real estate market is down. So people are staying put. They don't have a vision to move, which changes how they look at their roof. Now, reason number 2 is that the insurance landscape is changing. As insurance coverage drops, deductibles increase, and homeowners' out-of-pocket expense goes up. People don't want to deal with paying for a roof and then another hailstorm or windstorm or hurricane coming in 3 years and having to do what? Pay for it again. So here's the opportunity. The opportunity is to shift how you sell from selling maintenance items to selling forever roofs. Your forever roofs, maybe it's StoneCoated Steel or Standing Seam. These are durable, long-lasting products that do a few things. One, they actually increase home value. They increase home value. And that's why I say it depends, because an asphalt shingle only increases home value if the home needed a new roof. But the metal roof increases the home value because it's the last roof they'll ever need. Number two, insurance premiums are often reduced. You got to check with the agent to make sure, but the impact resistance and fire resistance will typically yield a bit of a savings on their premiums. And then number 3, they're gorgeous. They stand out and they're unique and people love that. So here's how you bring this to life. If you're not doing this already, offering a best, better, good package is really important paired with incredible financing. What we do is this: we sell against what everybody else is doing. And what everybody's doing is they're coming in selling asphalt shingles and you sell against it like this. This is the script part you're going to want to take notes on. Hey, Mr. Homeowner, I'm really excited to go over a few roof options for you. I'm guessing that most of the people you're talking with are showing you asphalt shingle roofing systems like this, which we have and we can walk through. But I want you to understand a few things. An asphalt roofing system is a cost. It's a high price and it's expensive. And we can put one on your roof. We'll do a great job at it and it should last. 20 to 30 years. That's again, assuming that there's no hail, wind, or hurricane between then. And the way that I want you to look at an asphalt roofing system is like the most expensive maintenance item on your home because it is, it has a service life just like tires for your car, but we're gonna add a zero to it. So that's an asphalt roofing system. But what I wanna turn your attention to first is this beautiful roofing system. It's stone-coated steel. Now this stone-coated steel roofing system is going to do a few things differently than asphalt. See, asphalt is an expense. Well, stone-coated steel is an investment. Asphalt system, you're gonna replace again. Stone-coated steel system, this is the last roof you ever get. Asphalt system, higher insurance premiums. Stone-coated steel system, lower insurance premiums. Asphalt system, No significant change in home value when new. Stone-coated steel— increase in your home value. Now picture this: driving up to your house after a long day at work and looking up at your roof and having the most beautiful and unique roof in your neighborhood, knowing you're never going to need to replace it again. You're never going to need to think about it ever again. You're going to be saving money on your insurance premiums. And the value of your home will increase. Which roof system would you like to talk more about with me today? This, my friend, is the opportunity to shift from selling roofs to increasing people's home value and getting today decisions. Here are 3 ways that you need to adapt to using the contingency agreement in the future as our industry shifts. All right, so adaptation, change, Number 1, states like Florida and Minnesota have passed laws requiring contractors to provide a dollar amount on a contingency agreement. So gone are the days in those states of saying, "Hey, sign this contingency agreement. Whatever the insurance company says, we're gonna work with them. We're gonna get it figured out and that's the amount owed and then you owe your deductible." But we've seen a lot of changes happening. And the first one is that in some states, you can't just say, "We're gonna do it." Now there's good news with this though. And that good news is that many of us, when I say us meaning contractors, are shifting from relying on storm work and playing in the storm damage restoration space with a retail focus and a retail mindset. So here's what I want to do. One, you can still use a contingency agreement, and many contractors like those in Florida and Minnesota are putting a dollar amount on the contract. Now some people freak out and say, "Hey, well then the next guy's gonna come price shop me." But when you present it the right way and you explain how you came up to that scope, it can set in the prospect's mind the right way, and because it is, the amount of damage that if you are doing this the right way should be covered. Let's move into condition number 2 that you got to be aware of. Deductibles. Deductibles are higher. So one of the risks that we are running into when using a contingency agreement in today's time is people will have a special deductible for hail and wind, a percentage of home value or some sort of limited coverage, whether it's an RPS policy or an ACV policy. And what this means is that homeowners' expenses are variable. And what I mean by that is, in the past, it used to be, hey, your deductible is $1,000. The homeowner can wrap their mind around it and like, hey, I know I got to pay the $1,000. But when the deductible is variable, we have no idea how much they're going to pay. Homeowners can get a little gun-shy not knowing what their expenses and be a little scared to sign anything. So this is something we need to be aware of. And the defensive strategy for you is to have an open conversation with homeowners about how this process works and what they can be prepared for. Because whenever homeowners are spending money, it doesn't matter what they're spending on, nobody likes surprises. So we want to stay ahead of the game with proper education and clear communication so we can set realistic expectations for how it works. Now, the third risk that you have to be aware of is the growing trend of managed repair programs and right-to-repair programs. Now, these are different, but they are handled in a similar situation. In fact, I've had conversations come up in RSRA of people saying, hey, you know, I had a contingency signed, they filed the claim, they got approved, and then the homeowner had the insurance company reach out, say, hey, you can use someone within our managed repair program. So it's just something to be aware of as you begin using these contingency agreements that you may get to a point where a homeowner says, hey, thanks for getting me approved, we're all good. But then the carrier comes through and says, hey, you can use someone on network and it'll save you X amount of dollars. How do you compete with that? Now, you might be able to, but I've found it to be quite difficult for most. So what do we do? Do we continue using a contingency agreement or do we move away from them? Love to hear from you and hear your opinion as to why. Because there's pro contingency and anti contingency. And I see both sides. And now I want to share with you my perspective. Now, my perspective is this: I think they're going to become more obsolete as time goes on. But we're not there yet. The reason that I think that they're still viable now is because of how it creates the relationship with a customer. When you start a relationship with someone, and you have an agreement of how it works, you create a strong foundation in a strong relationship versus doing all of this work for nothing. These are the 3 pillars of a future-proof roofing company. Now, it's no secret that the industry has undergone seismic shifts over the last 36 months. When we look backwards, material prices have been outta control, interest rates have gone up, Consumer spending has slowed down. The insurance companies are rewriting the rules for the insurance game. We see less people wanting to actually go to work. We see private equity coming into the industry with literally billions of dollars. There's been a lot of changes, and as I've seen these changes, well, the history can predict the future. So I start thinking, what is the next 36 months of roofing look like? And that's when it hit me. It was time for me to do the Roofing Industry Report, and I just published it, and you can get your copy now. It's the 2025 to 2028 Roofing Market Report: Future Trends Every Company Must Know or Get Left Behind. Now listen, this report that I'll be breezing through right here is available in the link in the description, or if you go to roofmarketreport.com. So what I did is I sat and I stared at this. In fact, I used this very whiteboard behind me And I started drawing out all of these different patterns that I saw. And in fact, I'm just going to sketch it out. Pattern number 1, all of these changes fall into this one bucket, the word culture. All of these changes. Now, culture is a word that's often thrown around by people. They're saying, oh, we have good culture, we don't have good culture. And culture is like what you put up on the wall. But culture is real simple. Culture is how people feel about working with or working for your company. That is how I define culture. Now, let's get into number 2. The next thing that I saw is all of these trends boiled into this other bucket that I labeled convenience. Okay? Convenience. Now, convenience is homeowners have this growing desire to get things now. We want instant information, right? We want to be able to have an appointment when it's convenient and works for us. I don't want to have to miss work to sit and talk to you about my roof. And then, and then the third bucket hit me, and that is cost-effective. Now don't think that we are done because we are just getting started. These three buckets are what I call the timeless strategy. Now what I mean by timeless is that there's one constant in business, and that is change. Right? But here's my clock. There's 12, 3, 6, and 9. As time goes on, our business will be threatened by the latest greatest adjustments in technology and AI. But what we need to ground us through all these changes is a timeless strategy. As the tech changes, it bolts into the strategy. If we look at this in other terms, we see that the game of business has been a consistent strategy. The game of marketing has been a consistent strategy. So now I want to turn my attention back to this report and share how these buckets really will, if you adopt them fully, shape how you build your company regardless of the technology that changes and the AI that changes and all that. Okay, so here's the 3 buckets. Now, the 3 C's: culture, convenience, and cost-effective. But these 3 buckets, when we look in culture, culture is what's gonna give you the competitive advantage in the highly competitive landscape that is recruiting. I believe that moving forward in the next 3 years, commission-only sales jobs will be a thing of the past because companies will be providing more leads, a more fragmented sales process that will demand higher sales per rep because of the tech enablement to offer salespeople more streamlined processes, which means they're able to take more appointments, which means they'll be paid a base plus commission. So being that there's going to be more competition and maybe even remote opportunities available, the recruiting landscape is going to be driven by culture. Who does someone want to actually work for? Now, my prediction is that private equity groups are going to struggle the most with retention because of how rapidly they change and how quickly they grow. That's a prediction because people don't like change. Okay? You're also going to see in the bucket of culture is retention. Are you going to be able to keep people on board or are you the kind of person that just hires folks and says, "Hey, you know, I did it, so can you. Here's the training. Why don't you just go make money for yourself?" No, no. People need to find a place where they feel like part of something bigger, where they're supported, where they're doing their best work. All right? Next on the list is the customer experience. This is going to be a key differentiator moving forward. If you don't provide an amazing customer experience, your business is on thin ice, and that begins internally. If the team isn't really satisfied and happy with what they're doing at work, how could they broadcast joy and, and joy and happiness and tender care to your customers if they're not feeling it on their own? And this boils down to these last two buckets of leadership and accountability. Without strong culture, there is a lack of of leadership. And without leadership, there's no accountability. And accountability is one of the most common struggling points I hear from roofing company owners all over the place. Next bucket is convenience. What I shared before is that homeowners, they want instant information. They want an easy buying process, a hassle-free experience to leverage AI and clear communication. Now, all of that, when we bundle that up into the bucket of convenience, what we see is the ability to adapt regardless of the technology. We know the theme is people want things easy, they want it now, they want hassle-free, they want clear communication. And when you start looking at the most common complaints about roofing companies, or contractors in general, it is usually down to communication and professionalism, which you could almost group into just one category in and of itself. Now, when we get back into this, the final bucket is cost-effective. Now, you may be wondering, uh, cost-effective does not mean a race to the bottom in offering cheap prices. What it means is that you offer financing and you emphasize ROI. This is also a huge opportunity for upselling and cross-selling as we see more market share of the residential roofing market growing for— okay, 75% of the market is asphalt shingles, 25% is the rest, okay? Metal roofing, et cetera, tile roofing, and so on. We are seeing that the smaller market, 25%, growing even more. So this is the time for you to offer those upsells as homeowners emphasize longevity and ROI. Now you see how all of these things, the 3 buckets, culture, convenience, cost-effective, become the foundation, the pillars of a future-proof company where everything, the time and strategy, fits together. And when you embody this system, you, my friend, will build a profitable, future-proof company that you love. The top earners in roofing sales in 2025 to 2028 will be doing these 5 things, and I'm sharing them with you now to give you the first mover advantage, because you'll be doing all 5 of these things, and in a year or so when everyone else catches on, they're going to be trying to play catch-up. As we get into the items on our list here, I want to start off with number 1, and you're going to see why in just a minute this is so important. Number 1 is that the top earners of 2025 to 2028 will be tech-enabled. Now, what do I mean by that? With tech enablement in AI, it will reduce the amount of administrative tasks and potentially running around that sales reps like yourself or maybe your team are going to need to do. So in the past, people strove to be the, the $1 million per year producer. But if you think from a practical standpoint, If a sales rep has to drive out to the house, hop up on the roof, do an inspection, take photo and video, update the CRM, put together the estimate, blah, blah, blah, get down off the roof, there's all of this workload. But through tech enablement, we will see that a sales rep who may have to invest, let's say, 3 to 4 hours per homeowner between appointments and administrative load, averaging out follow-ups and drive time, that might shrink down to 1 hour or even less. Now, as a result, the salesperson's capacity will increase. What is important is that you use all of the tech at your fingertips to reduce your workload and increase your capacity. When you do this, you are going to be able to earn more money. Number 2 on the list is using AI. And by the way, I should add in here tech enablement, meaning drones, in software, okay? Just so we have a distinction for this next category, which is using AI to streamline their workflow and work processes. Now, I recognize that many roofing companies will be doing this on behalf of the salespeople. They'll be setting up workflows and automations and AI agents. This is what I mean by using AIs. Whether you're in sales or whether you are in a management role, You thinking through using AI can change the game. As simple as something like this, using, let's say, otter.ai or any of the other tools that can just record on your phone. So for you in a sales role, you can use AI to streamline or find the most efficient routes, help keep you on track, update your CRM, record your meetings, use it for coaching feedback, use it for advice when you get a text message from a homeowner, homeowner and you don't know quite how to respond. Using it for sales training by doing roleplay, research, advancing your skills, jumping on and saying, hey, what are the top 5 sales books that I should listen to? Summarize them, put them into a list, give me de— like, it is amazing what is out there and how quick you can learn. So using AI to streamline your process, this, my friend, is so important for you to be a top earner in 2025 to 2028. Now, let's continue on our list here. Number 3 is the ability to learn how to sell over text. And I'm going to add in email. And the only reason for that is because when I sell— when I say sell over text, I mean sell in the written form. Because it is amazing what gets lost. So, to sell over text and email is an entirely different skill set that many people, myself included, struggled to learn. Because selling in person, we're in the same room, we have this energy and a captive audience, but selling over text and email is an entirely different animal. All right, let's get into number 4 on the list. Number 4 is to learn how to sell over the phone. You know, Cody Landels, who built Reimagine Roofing, he was the CEO of Reimagine Roofing, good friend of mine, fellow mentor in RSRA, built his company and he's selling millions per month over the phone. In fact, we did an RSRA members-only event at Cody's office, his physical location, touring him around, even secret shopping the company. In this way of serving homeowners that seems futuristic now is going to become commonplace. And there's a lot that gets lost when you're used to selling in person like this. And again, having the physical presence and the body language and the ability to really hold people's attention When you lose all that, it requires different sets of skills. And if you heard— and I don't remember the exact number at today's time— but Cody measures his average call time, and the average call time is about a third of what most people spend with a homeowner in the house. A third. And it's over the phone. Which brings us— let's wrap up with number 5— is a sales process. And this is more important now than ever before. But this process really needs to be focused on 3 things. And I'm gonna go ahead and, and list these out so you can see them. We're gonna go 1, 2, and 3. Okay? The sales process needs to be focused on ROI because homeowners are staying in their home longer because of feeling trapped due to rising interest rates when everyone purchased or refinanced during COVID times. So in that era when people were, hey, I'm gonna be moving in, you 3, 4, 5 years. I just need a roof to get by. Now people are looking at ROI and longevity because they say, hey, this might be the last roof I ever sell, which is why it is so important in sales to have an upsell path or an upgrade offering higher-end roofing, whether it's Class 4 impact-resistant shingles, metal roofing like standing seam or stone-coated steel, some sort of ultra-premium product along with cost-effective solutions. Now, cost effective does not mean a race to the bottom. Cost effective means you have the ability to kick butt offering financing. This right here, these are the 5 different things that you need to be doing if you want to be a top earner in '25 to '28, because adaptability is the new strategy. And those that act now like you, you will get the first mover advantage. Now, click the link in the description to get a free copy of this report and pay very close attention to this page.