Action pact: NATO’s Ukraine role

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Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist. I'm your host Jason Palmer. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. Last week we told you about Italy's presidential election when it seemed the probable winner would be Mario Draghi, the prime minister. But the incumbent was re elected. Mr. Draghi stayed put and somehow the political scene changed anyway. And here are two ideas you wouldn't naturally put TikTok and nuns. Our correspondent meets with the sisters of a convent dedicated to spreading the word across all media. Turns out some of TikTok's most creative content is second to nones. First up, though, In a press conference with Hungary's President Viktor Orban yesterday, Russia's President Vladimir Putin gave his first public remarks on Ukraine since December. He blamed America for using Ukraine as a pawn to stop the spread of Russian influence.

And.

And he warned that Russia's concerns about the expansion of NATO were being ignored. In response, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said America was open to continued dialogue with Russia about Ukraine.

Well, here's our view. We don't know what President Putin is going to do and it is our responsibility to and it's an imperative to keep the door to diplomacy open. That does not mean that we are going to not stand by our own values, which includes our belief that and the belief of NATO countries that it should be up to NATO members to determine who is able to join NATO. And, and that the door to that should be open for now.

As at least 100,000 Russian troops crowd at Ukraine's borders, those doors to diplomacy are open. Yesterday, Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson was in Kiev speaking with Ukraine's leader, Volodymyr Zelensky. Russia's and America's foreign ministers spoke on the phone. And as all those international efforts at de escalation play out, NATO, founded in 1949 in response to the threat of Soviet Russia has a renewed sense of purpose.

Europe faces perhaps its greatest security challenge since the end of the Cold War, which puts NATO back at the center of transatlantic politics. Secretary General, thank you very much for speaking to us. So I wanted to speak to the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, a Norwegian, about how he sees the situation. What is your best assessment of what President Vladimir Putin is intending to do?

There is no certainty about exactly what he's going to do, and maybe no final decision has been made, but there is a real risk for an armed attack on Ukraine. Once again.

Anton Laguardia is the Economist's diplomatic editor. He spoke to Mr. Stoltenberg in Brussels on Monday.

Mr. Stoltenberg has been doing a lot of media at the moment, talking to lots of journalists to send two or three messages. Firstly, the allies are united.

We are ready. We have conveyed in many different ways also in meetings with Russia in our written proposals that we are ready to sit down.

Secondly, they are firm. And third, to warn the Russians that what they're doing is likely to be counterproductive.

If Russia once again moves into Ukraine because they are afraid of too much NATO close to the borders, they will get the exact opposite. There will be more NATO at Russia's borders.

And given that Mr. Stoltenberg told you that there's a real risk of an invasion, does that suggest to you that diplomatic channels are failing?

So Mr. Stoltenberg says there's a real risk of war that is undeniable given the number of troops, troops that are there. But he also keeps open the possibility that this is a very brutal form of diplomacy and that the Russians are seeking some kind of diplomatic advantage as a result of it. In other words, it might be a big war or a big bluff from the Russians, and NATO has to be prepared for both options.

We are both preparing for a potential large scale Russian military invasion of Ukraine. And they are getting more and more capabilities that indicates that they have the capacity to do so. But they're also preparing for smaller operations. For instance, false flag operations inside Ukraine, sabotage attempts to topple the Ukrainian government, the democratic elected government, and of course also cyber attacks.

But there's still the shadow of a potential military response on the part of NATO.

Well, they're being very careful. Nobody, NATO is saying there's going to be a military response in Ukraine itself, but they are saying they're willing to reinforce the allies within NATO should the Russians act. In other words, they want to extend reassurance to the allies.

And you mentioned that this is the biggest crisis that NATO has faced since the end of the Cold War. What sense did you get that Mr. Stoltenberg thinks it demonstrates NATO's value, its purpose.

So the main message that Mr. Stoltenberg wants to send is of NATO standing united. Mr. Stoltenberg wants to demonstrate that NATO is central to security in Europe. And it's good not just for Europe, but also, he says, for the United States in its bigger positioning towards Russia and China.

As long as we stand together, Europe and North America, that's good for Europe. It's actually quite good also for the United states to have 29 friends and allies when they deal with, for instance, the security consequences of China. No other big power has as many friends and allies as the United States has in NATO. So that's the main reason, that's the main lesson, is that we need to stand together. I don't believe in North America alone, I don't believe in Europe alone. I believe in North America and Europe together. And we see that now. There is a Canadian, he told me.

That NATO represents 50% of the world's defense spending and of the world's economic might. This is important in any context of discussing Ukraine, but also in the wider context of protecting NATO and the transatlantic alliance. As long as they remain united, he suggests people will not try to take them on.

But the European Union has its own ambitions when it comes to defence. I mean, how does this muscle flexing from NATO fit into the EU's ambitions?

On that score, I think it shows who is a real guarantor of security in Europe, and I think it's NATO and the United States, because the United States is part of that alliance, the Europeans, particularly the French. But others think Europe should do more, should be able to project power, should be able to act when needed. But the real weakness there's a lack of capacity.

The European Union cannot defend Europe, meaning that 80% of NATO's defence expenditure come from non EU allies. This is partly about resources, but also about geography. We have Norway and Iceland in the north, but important for the North Atlantic, we have Turkey in the south, and then in the west, we have the United States, Canada and United Kingdom. And all of this is important for European security.

It's worth remembering that just a few years ago, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, said NATO was brain dead. I think it is showing that it is far from brain dead and that in fact it is the main force that is able to flex military muscle.

And so, all told, at this crucial moment, what's your takeaway from the conversation you had with Mr. Stoltenberg.

I think two things. First of all, NATO's own sense of purpose is now clear. After the end of the Cold War, it wasn't quite sure what its purpose was, so it talked about out of area or out of business. In other words, expeditionary operations in places such as Afghanistan. It also focused on counterterrorism and a host of other security threats. Now, the territorial defense of the alliance in Europe is central core business. The need for that has been proven and reinforced. I think also that the importance of America in European security has been shown. Again, it's the Americans that have helped to marshal together the response. They have obviously spoken to the European Union, the individual members, and NATO. But the third thing is I think there's a worry which is that although many allies are delighted that America is back after the years of uncertainty of Donald Trump in America, they also know that Donald Trump himself may be back or a Trump like president may return, or that even a mainstream future president will want to focus more on Asia and worry less about Europe. So I think the Europeans are on notice that they have to do more themselves to look after their own security.

Anton, thank you very much for your time.

Thank you.

For more analysis like this from our international network of correspondence, take out a subscription to the Economist. Get a great introductory deal@Equality.com IntelligenceOffer the link is in the show Notes.

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Italy has a new president, or at least a new presidential term has started. Proclamo Eletto Presidente La Repubbblica Sergio Mattarella On Saturday, after 8/10 rounds of voting, lawmakers at last settled on the incumbent 80 year old Sergio Macarella. It wasn't what he had planned for himself, and his acceptance speech was less than eu. Mr. Mattarella talked of duty prevailing. In short, he said he'd do the job, but not because he wanted to. Going into the contest, Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who leads a coalition government, had been widely tipped for the job, including here on the show. But in what's a rarity for Italian politics, stability prevailed.

The re election of Mr. Mattarella had always seemed like a good idea, and indeed, the arithmetic was so complicated that it seemed like a possible outcome. But the problem was that he had repeatedly ruled himself out.

John Hooper is the Economist's Italy and Vatican correspondent.

My understanding is that he only changed his mind after Mario Draghi, the Prime Minister, took him aside at a ceremony and said to him, everything else is deadlocked, and whatever your personal feelings, your country needs you.

And the last time we spoke, which was just last week, all of the talk was around what a surefire winner Mr. Draghi seemed to be. What changed?

Well, the election of an Italian President is not unlike that of a Pope. And there's a saying that surrounds conclaves, that he who goes in a pope comes out a cardinal. And that's really what happened on this occasion. Mr. Draghi was indeed a marginal favorite, I would say. But the more that the voting went on, the more the talks continued between party leaders, the more it became apparent that he just didn't have enough support. The biggest group within the electoral college was formed by the lawmakers and regional delegates of the Five Star Movement. And a lot of those people have had reservations about Mr. Draghi being too much of an establishment figure. The second biggest group was the League. And the League's leader, Matteo Salvini, had said right from the start that he thought that Mr. Draghi was better off doing the job that he was doing already, that of Prime Minister. So that really left Mr. Draghi with the center left Democratic Party, with support, oddly enough, from the far right as well, who are out of government, and then a rag bag of independents and smaller parties. So he just didn't have the momentum that was needed.

Okay, so the broadly progressive five star movement gets its say, the right wing league gets their say, but in the end, everyone stays put. Does that leave things where they were when last we spoke?

Absolutely not. Huge damage has been done during this presidential election, particularly on the right. Mr. Salvini tried to and failed to impose a candidate of the right, and in doing so, he really made them look rather foolish. And then changed his mind, threw his weight behind what you might call the Mattarella option, and did so without consulting his main ally, Giorgio Meloni, of the Brothers of Italy party on the radical right. And the result of that is that the right looks now very, very disunited. At the same time, the Five Star Movement came out of it equally split between supporters of the leader, Giuseppe Conte, and supporters of the Foreign minister, Luigi Di Maio. So all around, it looks like a battlefield after the battle. And this will have an effect going forward on a number of the players in Italian politics.

There is only about a year until the next elections. What do you expect from Mr. Draghi and his coalition in that time?

Well, I think that the big change as far as the government is concerned is that the parties have been weakened and Mr. Draghi, now that he is no longer in the running for the presidency, doesn't really have to worry about his popularity. Now, that's very important because he faces having to introduce lots of reforms and make lots of investments in order to get Italy's full share of the EU's post communication pandemic recovery funds. And some of those reforms are going to be unpopular with vested interests represented by those parties. He can really brush aside those concerns and go ahead. His position in that sense has been greatly strengthened. And that's very good news, not only for Italy, but also for Italy's EU partners.

So, on balance, as ugly as the procedure of it all has been, it seems as if all of this has been relatively good for Italy, bringing stability, taking some of the heat out of the extremes of Italian politics.

Yes, I think so. For now, at least. I think that the bonus that Mr. Draghi has enjoyed is not going to last forever. The closer that we get to the election, the more fractious the parties are going to become. But for the moment, yes, a messy procedure, an ironic conclusion, but ultimately quite good for Italy.

John, thank you very much for your time.

My pleasure.

The Pope doesn't do his own tweets. News flash for anyone who doesn't know.

The laughter that you can hear comes from Sisters Orian Pietra, Rene and Danielle Lussier. They're two nuns at the Daughters of St. Paul Convent outside Boston, and they call themselves the Media Nuns.

Johnny Williams writes for the Economist.

So Daughters of St. Paul was founded in 1915, and their mission is to minister to people through every form of media. They run a publishing house, they host their own podcasts, they record their own music. But most recently, they've actually become pretty popular because they've gone viral on TikTok, the video sharing app. They have about 155,000 followers on their account, and their videos have gotten more than 15 million views. So they become somewhat of an Internet sensation and actually earn their own hashtag, which is nontalk, which sounds like a.

Martial arts weapon, if you ask me. But if their mission is to cover all media, then why are they so popular on TikTok?

Well, you should see for yourself, Jason. If you get off your phone and search for non talk on TikTok, you will very quickly see some of their videos pop up.

Right, okay.

You're washing my dishes.

Sorry.

And there they are. It looks like they've done a big egg coloring project.

Yeah, they did that for Easter. If you take a look at this other one, there's one nun that's hiding from another sister in a box.

Yeah, no, I see that.

To surprise her. Yeah.

Hiding is a. I mean, I'm surprised a nun fits in a cupboard that small, but that's fun.

And as you can see at the end of most videos, one of the nuns has this conspiratorial grin. Their posts blend life in the convent with popular culture, riffing off of other trends that are happening on TikTok. But they're making their own nunified version, as they say.

And it couldn't be more clear that they're having a lot of fun making these nunified videos.

Yeah. And their cheerfulness largely explains why they are so popular on TikTok. It was honestly one of the most fun interviews I've ever done when I spoke with them.

I do not know how cesarelathia fit in that little cupboard. I don't know either. She sat in there for a really.

Long time, but the videos actually took a while to get right. At the beginning, they told me this really, really funny story about how they tried to prank an elderly sister, and it did not go as well as they expected it to go because we.

Actually have, like, pulled pranks on other sisters who were not ready for it, and it totally backfired. So we were like, okay, look, we're not reliving that experience.

But overall, their manner is just infectious, isn't it?

And I suppose that all of this infectious cheerfulness is in keeping with the mission to cover all the media. But how are they dealing with the popularity they've got on TikTok?

You know, they're generally unfazed by their newfound fame. At the beginning, they were surprised. They were fielding calls from Greece and Italy and England and people wanting to interview them. But what they really care about is the interactions that they have with people online. And they pray for everybody who comments and everybody who follows them online.

It is something that we do pray about, and we pray for the people commenting and we pray for the people watching them. And often, like, we dialogue with the people in the comments, which is like, super life giving.

One of the things that the sisters told me is that TikTok is helping people realize that nuns are just regular people like everybody else. And their online interactions actually have led to conversations about faith and even to friendships.

It's been really enlightening to see, like, how curious people are. The most, like, common comment is like, I was first on Prison Talk, and now I'm on Nun Talk. How did I get here? How did I get here? I'm in the depths of TikTok and I'm here for it.

You know, it has to be said, you don't come across nones online all that often or really out in the world all that often.

No. Convents have been shrinking over the past few decades, and it follows the downward trends that you see in religion across the board, especially in America. Today, There are about 41,000 nuns in the country, down from 160,000 half a century ago. But some still find it compelling. And ultimately, for the sisters, it's about connection. That's what they found as nuns and what they have found on TikTok.

God took our little gift, our little, like, 30 second video, and said, this is a gift for these people. We didn't know what it meant to go viral, per se.

Thanks very much for joining us, Johnny.

Thank you for having me, Jason.

And so we got phone calls from, like, morning shows.

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. If you like us, leave us a rating and a review and see you back here tomorrow.