After Abe: Japan’s new prime minister

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Hello and welcome to The Intelligence on Economist Radio. I'm your host, Shashank Joshi, filling in for Jason Palmer. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. The World Health Organization has a tiny budget and limited powers. And if Donald Trump is reelected, America will walk out. But during the pandemic, it has been quietly effective, fighting misinformation and supporting international cooperation on vaccines and public health. And we look at what the Prophet Muhammad had to say about puppies. In Egypt, the pandemic has pushed up the demand for pets, but a debate over the role of dogs Islam reflects a deeper power struggle in the country between mosque and state. But first, in Japan, last month's abrupt resignation of Abe Shinzo left a void in a difficult time. The country's longest-serving Prime Minister had tried to revitalize the economy and revamp the constitution, and boost national pride by hosting the Olympics. The woes of 2020 have left all that in doubt. Now, a successor has emerged to take on the job. Yesterday, Suga Yoshihide was elected as president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, all but guaranteeing he'll become prime minister after a parliamentary vote tomorrow. He was Mr Abe's chief cabinet secretary and promised continuity.

We must overcome this crisis so that each person in Japan can feel safe and have a stable life. In order to do that, we need to carry on Prime Minister Abe's measures and move forward with them.

I believe it is my mission to do so.

Mr. Suga was never really seen as a candidate for the top job. He had the reputation of being a behind-the-scenes operator rather than a public leader. And in fact, he told friends that he preferred the shadows to the spotlight, that he thought he could be more effective in a less prominent public role.

Noah Snyder is our Japan correspondent.

But he has been a crucial part of Mr. Abe's team. In fact, he was one of a small group who encouraged Mr. Abe to run again for prime Prime Minister a second time and really pushed him in the direction of focusing on economic policies and revitalising Japan's anaemic economy.

Mr Abe was a strong, even a statesman-like leader on the world stage. What do we know about Mr Suga as a person?

So he comes from a very different background from Mr Abe. And so Mr Abe was, of course, the grandson of a former Prime Minister and the son of former foreign minister. Mr. Suga, by contrast, grew up as the son of a strawberry farmer in a snowy rural prefecture in Japan's north. After leaving home, he moved to Tokyo and started out working in a cardboard box factory. He worked his way through university and eventually entered city politics in Yokohama, near Tokyo, rising really from nothing to the national parliament. In a country known for hard work, or even overwork, Mr. Suga's work ethics are the stuff of legends. He's known to wake up every morning at 5 AM, embark on a regimen of sit-ups and strolls before holding a regular breakfast meeting.

That's his personality. What about his political career? Has he accomplished anything?

Well, his rise in and of itself to such heights is perhaps an accomplishment in and of itself. But he really was shaped by his family past. Mr. Suga's experience as the son of a farmer and the citizen of Japan's most rapidly aging and one of its most rural and depopulated prefectures has made him aware of the importance of economic reforms. And he has throughout his career been active in efforts to boost competition, reduce regulations, and try to spark a bit of dynamism in an otherwise anemic economy. So he worked early on in his career on the privatization of Japan Railways. And during Mr Abe's tenure, he pushed for reforms to the protected, overly coddled, some would say, agricultural sector. He pushed to bring down mobile phone rates. He supported increasing the number of foreign workers allowed into Japan. All of which, again, sort of grew from recognition of the structural challenges that Japan faces as an ageing society.

Despite all of that, Japan's economy is still anaemic, as you put it. What are Mr. Suga's options for fixing it?

Well, his first challenge will be managing the fallout from COVID-19, which has battered Japan's economy. He's promised to be the candidate of continuity, and that was really how he secured support for his unlikely run for the prime minister's job. As the architect and one of the key figures in implementing the Abenomics agenda, he has a credible claim to being a candidate who can carry it forward. And so he's promised to maintain Japan's loose monetary policy. He's expressed support for the Bank of Japan's current direction. He's promised to keep the fiscal taps flowing. But down the road, he's going to have to take on some of the tougher, naughtier structural problems: aging, low productivity, shrinking workforce. He's floated several important ideas, suggested, for example, digitizing Japan's archaic government services. And those would be welcome reforms, both from the perspective of Japanese people, but certainly the Japanese business world. The long-term puzzle is Japan's debt situation, and Mr. Suga stepped into a long-running, rather thorny debate over whether Japan will need to continue raising its consumption tax. Mr. Abe did so twice, and both those tax hikes were ill-timed and sent the economy spiralling. Mr. Suga said that Japan would need to raise its consumption tax at some point, though he walked his comments back a bit and suggested that that moment would be quite a long ways off.

Mr. Abe was prime minister during a period in which America, Japan's chief ally, was increasingly at loggerheads with China, Japan's rival but also its major economic partner. And he managed to keep reasonably good relations with both. How do you think Mr. Suga will be able to walk that tightrope?

Mr. Suga doesn't have the same profile, certainly on the world stage, that Mr. Abe does, nor has he expressed as much interest in foreign affairs and diplomacy throughout his career. Mr. Suga has yet to prove himself, and this will be one of his signal tests, whether he can continue to keep Japan active globally in the way that Mr. Abe did.

Mr. Abe was Japan's longest ever serving as Prime Minister. Does Mr. Suga have any hope of replicating that?

It would be an ambitious goal. He's going to have to navigate a rather tumultuous period, as we've discussed in global affairs, but also an unruly party. Mr. Abe's long-serving tenure has meant that there are a lot of other aspiring leaders chomping at the bit. For now, Mr. Suga has consolidated the support of the major factions in the Liberal Democratic Party, Japan's ruling party, and Suga, again, by promising stability and continuity, has won their backing to serve out the remainder of Mr. Abe's term, which runs until September of 2021. His first step, however, is deciding what to do about potential snap elections this fall. It would be a bold move, and it might signal that Mr. Suga is really willing to step out of the shadows.

Noah, thank you very much.

Thank you for having me.

Healthcare can feel complicated. That's why Optum uses technology to connect the people and processes that make healthcare easier, more affordable, and more effective. We're making it clearer for you to know exactly what your benefits cover and to help you better manage your health. We're coordinating care between your doctors, and your technology. We believe better, simpler healthcare is always possible. That's healthy optimism. That's Optum. Visit optum.com to learn more.

Outside the headquarters of the World Health Organization, the American flag still flutters with the rest. But if Donald Trump has his way, by July next year, it'll be gone.

We will be today terminating our relationship with the World Health Organization and redirecting those funds.

In May, Mr. Trump announced America's withdrawal from the agency, citing its handling of COVID-19 and relations with certain member states.

China has total control over the World Health Organization, despite only paying $40 million per year compared to what the United States has been paying which is approximately $450 million a year.

The Director-General of the WHO, Dr. Tedros Adhanom, gave a tearful response.

The virus thrives on division, but is thwarted when we unite.

How is it difficult for humans to unite to fight a common enemy?

The coronavirus pandemic has cast light on the agency's shortcomings as well as its strengths. To cope with future crises, it's going to need more money and more muscle.

I think on balance the World Health Organization has done a very good job on COVID-19.

Natasha Loder is our health policy editor. She recently interviewed Dr. Tedros in Geneva.

The WHO has a lot of roles both in and out of pandemics. One of its main roles is to identify good public health measures and offer countries support where they need it. They've been really quick on the uptake on misinformation. The director general of WHO warned about misinformation very early on.

But we're not just fighting an epidemic, we're fighting an infodemic.

Fake news spreads faster and more easily than this virus. And is just as dangerous.

They've worked very hard with technology companies to try and deal with this. And then just think of the volume of science that has been pushed out on a daily basis. They have to digest it and put that out as new rules and guidelines. And they're also the main forum on which countries cooperate on health. And so that's why you're seeing the WHO being quite a key player on vaccines.

So it sounds like it's been very active a lot of it behind the scenes. But I suppose when it has made mistakes, that's been in the public eye, hasn't it?

Yes, very much so. One of the things it's criticised for is being slow to call a public health emergency of international concern. Now, part of the reason that it would have been slow is because China didn't give enough information about the nature of the outbreak that it was facing. And also, it's advised by this internal body, which isn't really strictly speaking WHO. And so it's not exactly acting completely independently. Another criticism is, well, it didn't criticise China. That's not a good criticism because it's not allowed to criticise member states. That power that it used to have for ticking them off was taken away a number of years ago. Where we can criticise WHO is they have been a bit slow on issuing guidance for fabric masks in the community. So about April of this year, there was increasing pressure for the WHO to sort of make a much firmer recommendation about whether we should all be wearing fabric masks. Now, WHO is an evidence-based organisation, and it felt that there wasn't enough evidence to support the use of fabric masks. And so they did stall for a while until they felt there was a firmer evidence base.

Natasha, you mentioned China, and it's of course China that has prompted President Donald Trump to say that he will pull out of the WHO. He thinks that the organisation is in hock to the Chinese. How likely is that to happen, do you think?

On the point of the WHO being in hock to China, that's just nonsense. If anything, it's in hock to America. America is its biggest donor. It provides about 1 in 10 of its staff, and they even have Reese's Peanut Butter Cups in the vending machine in WHO headquarters in Geneva. So this is an American-driven and led organization through and through. Now, I interviewed Dr. Tedros a couple of weeks ago, and he told me he did try and convince the Trump administration to stay in the WHO. And the response that he got was that there were a number of conditions, one of which Tedros said was completely unacceptable. Whether or not America stays in the WHO is really going to depend on the outcome of the American presidential election. Joe Biden has said that America will stay. And it's assumed that if Trump wins, that he will fulfil his promise to take America out of the WHO.

So America supplies not just the candy in the vending machines, but also a significant proportion of the WHO's budget, as you say. How would the WHO cope without its biggest donor?

That remains to be seen. It's got this tiny budget, about $2.5 billion a year, which is piddling. This is the sort of amount of money that some sub-regional hospital in the US might spend. Worse is that of that $2.5 billion, it's actually only free to spend about 20% of that, because 80% of that money comes in the forms of contributions that are tied to specific projects. And the problem is essentially that member states don't give the WHO enough money. I mean, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation gives it about as much as Britain. You've also got Rotary International, the National Philanthropic Trust, And these NGOs are giving way, way, way more than countries like China, like Canada, like Australia, like France. And that's very surprising.

So if the WHO had more cash, would that fix the problem?

No, absolutely not. What it needs is more power, actually, more muscle. And at the very least, it needs to be able to be transparent about which countries it thinks are not doing well and are not reporting as they should be. If we want to be able to get on top of the pandemics of the future, we need an organisation that has the power to investigate and also to take information from other sources. And the big question is whether the member states are ready to give WHO that power, because what that means is that WHO could also be free to highlight countries like Britain and America when they're failing in their responses.

And if the WHO doesn't get those powers, is its future in doubt? And what's at stake?

No, the WHO's future is not in doubt. It's just too much an integral part of the health system to go. What is in doubt is the extent to which we're going to be able to respond to these pandemics in future. A year ago, the risks of a weak global health system were really hard to calculate. And today we can see them. It's cost us trillions of dollars. And it's cost us about 900,000 lives so far. So I do think that there's going to be a lot of effort put into thinking about how we're going to respond better next time.

Thank you, Natasha.

Thank you, Shashank.

Dogs are said to be man's best friend. Assuming, of course, you're not a cat person. In Egypt, as in so many places during the pandemic, the lack of human company and more time spent at home means that puppies have become increasingly sought after. But the rising popularity of very good boys has become a bone of contention for Islamic leaders in the country.

There's a debate in Islam over whether dogs are pure in the eyes of God, which on a more basic level really boils down to the question Can a devout Muslim keep a dog as a pet?

Roger McShane is our Middle East editor.

Last month, Egypt's Grand Mufti Shawki Allam said, "Yeah, it's possible for a Muslim to live with a dog and still worship God." In fact, he even went a bit further, saying, "Every living animal is pure." But that has raised the hackles of more conservative clerics.

Why are conservative clerics seemingly anti-dog?

Well, they base their argument on certain hadith, which are sayings about the actions and the words of the Prophet Muhammad. So, for example, you have a hadith that says angels will not enter a house if there is a dog present. Obviously, that's not a good one for the dogs. Another hadith warns that Muslims who keep a dog will have some of the spiritual rewards from their good deeds taken away. Again, not great for the dog. But there are qualifications to these hadith. And this leads to considerable debate online and in the mosque. And so, for example, the angels don't seem to mind entering a house if the dog is outside. And in general, it seems like it's okay to keep a dog if you're going to use it for activities like herding or hunting or farming or as a guard dog. One of the more contentious issues is a dog's saliva.

What's wrong with a dog's saliva?

So a lot of Muslim scholars think a dog's saliva is impure, and this is based on another hadith that goes, I'll say it exactly, "Cleanse your vase which the dog licked by washing it 7 times, and the first is with earth," and that means soil. So basically, if a dog licks you, you have to do an awful lot of washing. But Egypt's Grand Mufti, he said that if you clean yourself before praying and then a dog licks you, it's cool, there's no need to rewash.

So what does the Quran say about all of this?

So this is one of the problems. The Quran actually says very little about dogs, and scholars point to instances when The Prophet Muhammad prayed with canines, and his followers are even said to have raised puppies. You know, this debate came up a few years ago actually in Egypt when a religious advisor to the president was photographed shaking the paw of a dog. And it was a very cute photograph, but of course it was criticized by more conservative clerics. So he pointed to the story of the Seven Sleepers, and that's a story about a group of young men who hide out in a cave in order to escape religious persecution. And as the story goes, they take a 300-year nap while their dog is stretched out at the entrance of the cave keeping watch. So of course, this shows that dogs are great pets. I mean, the dog kept watch for 3 centuries, right? But conservatives note that the animal was not actually in the cave with the sleepers.

So is this really about the theology of dogs, or is there something else going on?

No, no, the debate in Egypt right now is much more about sort of power than it is about pets. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Egypt's president, he wants to assert more control over Islam. He's relatively moderate when it comes to religion, not so much with politics, but with religion, yes. So in order to assert more control, he's using Dar al-Ifta, which is the state's Islamic advisory board, and that's led by the Grand Mufti who has issued this ruling on dogs. At the same time, he's trying to somewhat diminish Al-Azhar, which is the Sunni world's most prestigious center of learning, but it's also pretty conservative. So lately, Dar al-Ifta has been espousing these relatively progressive views in order to sort of win over the public. So for example, before the ruling on dogs, the Grand Mufti came out and condemned sexual harassment, which is a very big problem in Egypt. And in general, the Grand Mufti says He wants to make it easier for Muslims to practice their faith. And, you know, that's a pretty popular message, whether you own a dog or not.

Thank you, Roger.

Thank you, Shashank.

That's all for this episode of The Intelligence. If you like us, give us a rating on Apple Podcasts. And see you back here tomorrow.

Health care can feel complicated. That's why Optum uses technology to connect the people and processes that make health care easier, more affordable, and more effective. We're making it clearer for you to know exactly what your benefits cover. And to help you better manage your health, we're coordinating care between your doctors and your technology. We believe better, simpler healthcare is always possible. That's healthy optimism. That's Optum. Visit optum.com to learn more.