Bibi blues: Israel’s fraying consensus

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The Economist. Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from hi, I'm your host Jason Palmer. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. Subsidies that partially cover the costs of energy. Efficient home renovations are one of those everyone wins situations. If those subsidies get the incentives right. Italy has not, and it's struggling to walk back the super bonus that's crippling its budgets. And the hit series Bridgerton Position positions itself as a modern period drama, a blend of old and new sensibilities. And thanks to some unexpected arrangements, it's made string quartets more fashionable than they have been in centuries. First up, though, It has been, from any perspective, a terrible couple of weeks for the war in Gaza. Hundreds of of thousands of Palestinians sheltering in Rafah in southern Gaza have had to uproot again. Israel Defense forces seized and shut the Rafah crossing into Egypt and have been ramping up what they have claimed is a limited operation there. In Israel's halls of power, too, small skirmishes have grown swiftly, bigger. For months, generals have grumbled that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not have a plan or seem to want one for what will happen in Gaza after the war. But on May 15, Yoav Gallant, the defense minister in Israel's war cabinet, said the quiet part out loud. He hinted at Mr. Netanyahu's indecision, calling it in essence, a decision that leads to a dangerous course. It wasn't just him. Another member of the Unity cabinet, Benny Gantz, threatened to leave the government next month if there's no post war plan. The pressure on Mr. Netanyahu is not only coming from within. America's national security advisor has been in the region building a long sought plan for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, something that could force Israel to curb its war aims. Earlier this week, the International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor requested that judges issue arrest warrants for Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gallant. And three more European countries, Norway, Spain and Ireland, announced they would recognize Palestine as a state. Zanny Minton Beddoes, the Economist's editor in chief, recently visited Israel and those tense halls of power.

It was my first trip since October 7th and I came back profoundly depressed. The politics is unbelievably grim. The diplomatic pressure on Israel is growing internationally, and I'm not sure that within Israel there is a recognition of just how bad that situation is.

Zanny and our Jerusalem correspondent Anshel Pfeffer found plenty of disquiet. Even beyond what's been making headlines the.

Last week, we've had a flurry of diplomatic, political and even legal developments here regarding the war. Two key ministers of the war cabinet warning of a lack of strategy for who can take over Gaza after the war. At the same time, US National Security Advisor Jay Sullivan has been here once again pushing the American Saudi plan, which is a way out of the war, but very unpalatable to Benjamin Netanyahu. There's been really so many different developments and still not clear how any of these are going to lead to a ceasefire and end of this war.

And Anshul paint us a picture here. What is the nature of the disagreement as regards Israeli sort of internal politics at this stage?

So Netanyahu's position is that Israel has to destroy Hamas has to continue the battle in Gaza until a certain unspecified point in time where it can be satisfied that Hamas is no longer a credible threat. The problem is that Netanyahu won't agree to having any serious discussion, both within the cabinet and in the broader Israeli sphere, over what the strategy is on the day after. What will fill this vacuum that's already been created in Gaza. And what we've seen in the last few days is this debate, or almost a lack of a debate. But ministers demanding that there should be a discussion coming out in the open. Both Gallant and then Benny Gantz publicly challenging the Prime Minister to put forward a strategy. Now, this is a small war cabinet at the time of war, and you have the two most senior ministers after the Prime Minister publicly challenging him. It's a level of dysfunction, of political dysfunction. I think that even by Israeli standards is unprecedented.

It's as though Lloyd Austin, the US Defense Secretary, were publicly trashing President Biden. And privately, the security establishment was absolutely visceral in their criticism of Netanyahu. He has no plan. He refuses to think about the day after. And so these exhortations that you hear from American officials, they want the Israelis to come up with a plan in Gaza. The security establishment wants to do that too. It's just Bibi Netanyahu who does not want to do that. And he doesn't want to do it because he's in hock to his extremist far right members of his coalition and knows that if he does come up with a plan, the only possible sensible plan, they will go crackers and that will be the end of him. And all he is thinking about, and I heard it again and again, is his own personal political survival.

Well, the first question to ask is, what is on the table? We know that Mr. Netanyahu is happy with a forever war. What is it that Mr. Gantz and Mr. Gallant are proposing instead?

Well, Netanyahu's challenges right now are the two senior ministers in his war cabinet, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who is a right winger, a hawk, but he also thinks that Israel should not be occupying Gaza and therefore has presented his plans for a Palestinian administration to take control of the vacuum created in Gaza. Benny Gantz, who joined the war Cabinet immediately after October 7, is also Netanyahu's main centrist rival. He's looking at a more detailed plan and he's also got more room for maneuverability over a possible Palestinian, he calls it entity rather than state at this point. They're the ones who are now challenging Netanyahu publicly.

The military establishment and the sort of broad non Netanyahu political establishment broadly agree that it's a catastrophe. Israel remains a kind of occupying power and maintains responsibility for Gaza and sort of occupies it. Basically, you need to have a Palestinian, non Hamas, based loosely on a sort of technocratic Palestinian Fatah administration, probably with security support. You know, uae, as mentioned, Egypt, Jordan, the details differ, but there's been quite a lot of very, very detailed planning going on that is necessary for the immediate day after to create the security situation that you will need to provide real humanitarian assistance, to provide the kind of basic tents and provision that you're going to have to have for people. That should ideally be part of a much broader pathway that includes a pathway to a two state solution. But it could also ideally include movement between Saudi Arabia and the US For a security guarantee, which altogether leads you to a path. As you know, Jason, we've been arguing for for months in the pages of the Economist that leads to a better future for the region. A two state solution has to be part of this, but it's not going to happen tomorrow morning. But there has to be the political leadership that is not just sort of nihilistically saying no, no, no, no, no. And in fact, sort of. And although Netanyahu isn't saying this, his far right coalition partners are basically saying they want to reoccupy and resettle Gaza. There has to be someone who is powerful enough and bold enough to say that is not the path forward.

But the path forward is clearly not a straightforward thing to find. I mean, in a nutshell, what are the obstacles?

There are two major obstacles that when they are presented to the Israeli public, they kind of pull back into fear. One is the idea of the Palestinian Authority taking over in Gaza. The Palestinian Authority is discredited, both because it's weak. It lost control of Gaza back in 2007 and it hasn't even condemned what happened on October 7th. So many Israelis see it. Even though the Palestinian Authority is a political opponent of Hamas, they see them somehow to blame for what happened in October 7th. So Israelis still have a problem when the Palestinian Authority is presented as an alternative to being Gaza. And the other issue is the Palestinian state. Israelis are in no place now to even contemplate. So when Benny Gantz puts forward what the strategy has to be, he can't really go all the way and mention the Palestinian Authority of the Palestinian State because he's worried of losing the support that he now has in the polls.

Zani, what's your take on that?

This is something that was a real shock to me. I'd heard from American officials. You have to understand that Israel is in a state of trauma, that Israeli citizens are in a state of trauma and they can't yet think about things like a two state solution. That's something I've heard again and again in Washington. Being there in Israel brought that Home very, very clear to me. And so there is a sense of a country that feels extraordinarily vulnerable. And it's worth remembering that there are 100,000 Israelis displaced not just from near the Gazan border, but from the north of Israel because of the Hezbollah attacks. And that seems too many people still to be sort of existential. And seems to me that unless there is some mechanism for moving Hezbollah back towards him, that the line is the Litany river in the north, that there is very real risk of something happening there in the coming months.

And Angel, I've learned to be circumspect about even so much as contemplating the end of Benjamin Netanyahu's political career. But I'm tempted to ask what you think about his position right now.

Netanyahu has never been weaker. He's basically beholden to the far right for his political survival. And we're seeing in the polls that the level of trust in him is at rock bottom. And something really intriguing is happening here with Israeli public opinion. On the one hand, Israelis have turned against Netanyahu. We see 70% of Israel's impulse saying Netanyahu should be replaced. But at the same time, Netanyahu is still dominating the public discourse. And in a way, he is the one still deciding the narrative. And until his opponents, and we're beginning to see that the fact that Gantz and Galland in obviously coordinated moves of openly challenge Netanyahu is, I think, the beginning of a moving of the public narrative, not just against Netanyahu personally, but against his message of absolutism and rejecting any ideas until, as he claims, their total victory can be achieved. So I think the public narrative is beginning to change, and not just against Netanyahu personally, but against his message. But it's going to. It still is. It's a gradual process. It's not going to happen overnight. And the problem is that those who are opposed Netanyahu, they're not very well coordinated. They're rivals among themselves. They have different ideas.

But what about the more direct political threat here? Benny Gantz, war Cabinet minister, a direct political rival to Mr. Netanyahu, has threatened to leave the government in the absence of a post war plan. What happens if he follows through on that threat?

Benny Gantz, on his own, can't bring Netanyahu down. Even if he and his centrist party leave the coalition, Netanyahu still has a majority. And as we've seen with Netanyahu over all the years, he's going to do everything he can to stick in power. The real pressure can ultimately only come, I think, from President Joe Biden. And that's where Netanyahu will finally reach this critical juncture, whether he sticks with the far right or he accepts this Saudi American plan, which could perhaps salvage some of Netanyahu's extremely tarnished legacy. Some people who say that they know what Netanyahu is thinking have told me recent days that when push comes to shove, he will take that option. I'm not seeing any signs of that yet, but that really is the only major lever of pressure now on Netanyahu.

I just don't think within Israel there is a recognition or a realization of just how much the country is becoming seen as an international pariah. They are very focused internally and understandably so. Everyone's fed up with Bibi. But there isn't perhaps yet a recognition, at least amongst the broader Israeli population, of quite just what the catastrophic consequences of his nihilism will be.

Zanny and Shaul, thank you both so much for your time.

Thanks for having me.

Thank you.

Foreign. Okay, one last time on this what are you doing tomorrow? I have a suggestion. Check out our subscriber only Saturday edition. Tomorrow is the last freebie episode of the Weekend Intelligence, our kickback show that dives into poignant, compelling, and sometimes very personal stories. From our quote correspondence. It's the last freebie. That is, unless you've heroically already signed up for Economist Podcasts plus, in which case, thanks for keeping the lights on over here. If not, I have a deal for you, my friend. Until the end of the month, you can get half off a subscription to Economist Podcasts plus, just a couple of bucks a month, you'll get access to the Weekend Intelligence all our weekly analysis shows our long form series the works. Just search for Economist Podcasts. Do it now while it's cheap.

Hi, this is Christy from Back to the Bar. You've probably heard about GLP1 weight loss medications and the side effects that can come with jumping in too fast. That's why ILIB Noom makes getting started easy. Their microdose GLP1 program begins with a smaller dose and gradually scales up based on how your body reacts. The Noom GLP1 microdose program starts at $99 and is delivered to your door in seven days. Start your microdose GLP1 journey today at noom.com that's n o o m.com Noom micro changes big results average weight loss 8 pounds in first month meds and personalization based on clinical need and not available to all individuals medications are not reviewed by FDA for safety, efficacy or quality pricing based on first month only.

Anyone who owns a home knows how this can go. You decide to spruce the place up a little and a small job becomes a big job or more jobs. Next thing you know, the renovation budget is blown. Well, the Italian government certainly knows the feeling. It launched two incentives to encourage homeowners to spend on environmentally friendly renovations. But now politicians are worried that they're taking a wrecking ball to the public finances.

Italy's Finance Minister, Giancarlo Giorgetti has said that these subsidies give him a stomach ache.

John Hooper is the Economist's Italy correspondent.

It is a fiscal equivalent of King Kong that has been loosed on the Italian public accounts and is just running amok.

And before we get into the way it's gone wrong here, tell us what the plan was supposed to be.

Well, this goes back to 2020 of the pandemic, when the left populist government of Giuseppe Conte was looking for a way to stimulate the economy and they introduced a subsidy to pay homeowners who invested in increasing the energy efficiency of their homes 110% of the price of of any of those improvements. So solar panels, heat pumps, lagging, etc. The other initiative that was introduced covered 90% of the cost of doing up the front of a building. Now, the cash was not to be reimbursed directly. It would come in the form of tax credits. But those tax credits are so you can in fact get cash.

So I can almost see how this is going to go. But how did it play out at first?

Well, in one sense, the scheme has worked. Italy since the pandemic has done rather better than both France and Germany. And that's largely due to a construction boom. In fact, the Italian construction sector has grown by almost a third over those years, whereas elsewhere in Europe it's stood pretty much still. The problem is that it has come at a huge price because the treasury now is committed to forking out over the duration of this scheme no less than 219 billion euros. Now, that's 10% of Italy's GDP last year and more than all that Italy is getting from the European Union's post Pandemic recovery fund.

So how did the bill for all this get so high though?

Well, there are a number of reasons. First of all, it was mighty popular, particularly the so called super bonus, which gave you 110% of what you spent. Who wouldn't like a deal like that? Added to which there has been fraud on A very considerable scale, an estimated 16 billion euros already. And then there's something that is not exactly what you think of when you think of fraud.

But.

Well, let me put it this way. You want to put lagging in your extensive Tuscan retreat, Jason. Right. So you come to me as the builder and I say to you, Jason, hand on heart, I can't do this for less than 20,000, let's say. But why should you care? Because you're going to get 22,000 back. Well, at that point I can then say to you, but of course, if we agree that the price that we submit to the government is 40,000, you're going to get 4,000 back. Actually, you could get a lot more because we can split the difference between that. Just making some allowance for the fact that I'm going to have to pay a bit more tax. So in a way, the Super Bonus had built into it temptation, almost irresistible temptation to fraud. And that seems to have been a major reason why this bill has kept on going up and up and up. The final reason is that the politicians, knowing that this was such a popular scheme, decided not to do anything about it until very recently.

But now the bill is coming due, surely they're going to have to.

Yes, they are doing so. In fact, the latest move has been introduced by the government of Giorgio Meloni and what they are doing is they're spreading out the use of these tax credits over 10 years. But already the scheme has done a huge amount of damage to Italy's public accounts. Last year's deficit was far bigger than originally projected. And already the Super Bonus, just by itself, without the other scheme, has cost the treasury over 120 billion euros. It looks very much as if the belt is going to have to be tightened come the autumn with an austerity budget that the politicians were rather reluctant to introduce with the European elections coming up.

John, thanks very much for your time.

My pleasure.

Jason.

Pitbull does not make the kind of music you would describe as romantic.

Rachel Lloyd is the Economist's Deputy Culture editor.

Listeners are unlikely to swoon when they hear the American rapper's lyrics. Some of the lyrics are more likely to make you scowl than smile. And yet, when a couple gets to kissing in a horse drawn carriage in the new season of Bridgerton, they do so to a string quartet cover of his tune from 2011, Give Me Everything thing. Remove Pitbull's braggadocio, add some staccato violins and you take a song from gross to engrossing. Bridgerton as well as its spin off, Queen Charlotte positions itself as a modern kind of period drama.

The time has come for the social.

Season Tighter She Did Breathe, Mama.

The first four episodes of season three will release on Netflix on May 16th. The second set of episodes will arrive on June 13th. Bridgerton is one of the television mega hits of recent years. According to Netflix, viewers spent almost 1 billion hours watching the first season and nearly 800 million with the second. Internet searches for corsets and wisteria have soared since the show premiered. It's also made string quartets the most popular they've been in centuries. The soundtrack sets the tone for the show's blend of old and new sensibilities. It's full of classical crossovers, like this string quartet rendition of Harry Styles, Sign of the Times. It also features covers of of songs by Ariana Grande and Taylor Swift. Vitamin String Quartet performs many of the show's tracks. The group saw streams jump by 350% in the weeks after Bridgerton debuted. Leo Flynn, the group's brand manager, says interest has stayed high. The most popular songs have more than 20 million streams apiece on Spotify, and in fact, the popularity is such that the quartet has recently announced plans for a tour of more than 40 cities across America. According to research by the Royal Philharmonic Orchestra, people are interested in going to pop classical events more than almost any other kind of orchestral concert. In 2023, they ranked second, just behind concerts featuring hits from musicals. Fever, an entertainment booking platform, has been organizing string quartet concerts by Candlelight since 2019. Such events are now hosted in more than 150 cities worldwide and have been attended by some 3 million people. Its programme includes evenings dedicated to the music of Adele and Ed Sheeran, and its performers have included Vitamins String Quartet playing the Bridgerton soundtrack. Just as string quartet reinterpretations provide the backdrop to the courtships in Bridgerton, they're also popular choices for weddings today. Betrothed couples looking to show off their elegance and refinement have long booked string quartets, but many now forego bark for Beyonce. I spoke to the founder of one string quartet based in London. She said that some 40% of her clients specifically request Bridgerton style music as something both classy and up to date. Of course, Bridgerton is not the first pop culture sensation to influence fans behaviour or preferences. The Queen's Gambit, a miniseries released on Netflix in 2020, made chess cool for a time. Sales of Chess sets exploded. Fans of the Top gun movies in 1986 and 2022 felt the need for speed but they also felt the need to rush out and buy a pair of Ray Ban aviators and challengers. A new romance drama about professional athletes has popularised a tennis court aesthetic which includes short white skirts and sweater vests. There have been more than 19 million videos with the tag on TikTok. Some music purists may sniff at this trend, but Bridgerton is in the business of shaking up tired genres. Audiences for classical fare have typically skewed male and middle aged or older, but many of the people listening to Vitamins String Quartet are young women aged between 14 and 35. Modern tunes help demystify a rarefied art form and bring in these younger audiences. Fever says that more than 60% of first time visitors had never been to a concert with classical instruments before, so if Bridgerton continues to hit a sweet note, it may have a harmonious effect on the classical music sector as a whole.

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. The show's editors are Chris Impey and Jack Gill. Our deputy editor is John Jo Devlin and our sound designer is Will Rowe. Our senior producers are Rory Galloway and Sarah Larnyuk. Our senior creative producer is William Warren, our producers are Maggie Khedifa and Benji Guy and our assistant producer is Henrietta McFarlane. With extra production help this week from Emily Elias, Peter Granitz, Jonathan Day and Ben Lowings. We'll all see you back here tomorrow for the weekend. Intelligence. You know the one I was mentioning before Sam.