Bloc can tackle? ECOWAS and Niger’s coup

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Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist. I'm Jason Palmer.

And I'm Ora Ogunbi. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

America's Republican presidential hopefuls have been courting a very particular special interest group, Moms for Liberty. We look at what the moms are fighting for and ask whether aligning with their agenda will help or harm the candidates.

And what's the world's best flag? Your patriotism might lead you to choose your countries, but a good flag isn't just a pretty symbol, it must be effective as well. Our correspondent has some tips for designing better banners.

First up, though, Two weeks ago, when Niger's government fell in a military coup, many leaders of other West African countries hoped to halt the contagion. The chaos might be giving ideas to ambitious generals in their own armies. The most strident opposition to the coup came from Bola Tinubu, the president of neighboring Nigeria and current chair of the Economic Community of West African States, or ecowas. The regional bloc condemned the coup and soon offered an if Niger's ousted president, Mohammed Bazoum, was not restored by this past Sunday, a military intervention could follow. When that deadline arrived, the junta closed Niger's airspace and the military filled a stadium with cheering supporters who beheaded a rooster painted in the colors of the former colonial power, France. The threatened military intervention did not didn't come, but it might. Still, ECOWAS is now set to meet again in two days time. Either way, a regional bright spot in the fight against rampant jihadism has darkened, and it's not even clear that Niger's people want saving from their new military rulers.

By setting such a tight initial timeline, ECOWAS really has put itself now in quite a tight spot, and the hunters more or less called their bluff.

Kinley Salmon is an Africa correspondent for the Economist.

For now, they are basically playing for time by naming another extraordinary summit to happen this Thursday. But all the while, Niger's prospects are frankly looking worse and worse. And the junta is busily entrenching itself in the capital.

And you told us a week ago that you thought it was quite uncertain that Herkaras would be able to follow through on that military threat. How likely would you say war is right now?

Well, there's still a lot of uncertainty. I think despite the deadline passing, without anything too dramatic, there are many reasons why war could still happen. Leaders of the states that make up ecowas, they've got a lot of reasons to worry about Niger. I mean, they fear for one, that the jihadist chaos that really has engulfed the whole region of the Sahel, Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso could spread south into their countries. When I was recently in Niger, I spoke with some people who've been internally displaced. One mentioned that his brother was kidnapped by jihadists and then three months later his nephew was also taken and he's simply never seen them again. So that worry for other countries of that kind of chaos is very real. Several countries also, I think it's fair to say, are keen to set an example to ward off the possibility of coups in their own countries. And they've drawn a pretty clear line in the sand. And so I think the group may find it difficult now to accept anything less than a full reinstatement of Mr. Bazoom or at a very minimum, his freedom. But General Chiani doesn't look terribly likely to provide, certainly not a full reinstatement. And even releasing Mr. Bazum is proving pretty challenging. So things aren't looking too good, but there's still wiggle room. Talks are still happening, so it isn't yet inevitable.

So what is it that you think is going to ultimately tip the scales here?

Well, much depends on Nigeria, the biggest neighbor to Niger and the biggest state in West Africa. A war would be costly and there's clearly some domestic opposition to an intervention, particularly in the north of Nigeria, which borders Niger. A high level official in Abuja told me just yesterday that backchannel talks are still ongoing, emphasized that war was really a last resort. And the Senate of Nigeria itself, which under the constitution should also be required to approve any intervention unless there's an imminent danger to the country, and doesn't seem that keen to back the intervention either. So Nigeria's sort of domestic politics is one big question and another is that there's not seemingly a huge amount of support from other big regional powers. Algeria to the north of Niger and Chad to the east both oppose the use of force. And then even within what's normally Ecowas, you've got Mali and Burkina Faso, both run by juntas who said, in fact, that they would fight alongside Niger in the event of any intervention. Whereas other parts of Ecowas, places like Senegal, Ivory coast and Benin, have indicated that they would support the intervention in some form if it were to take place. There's a lot of politics and a lot of calculations going on to see still how this will play out.

And what about Nigeriennes themselves? What do they want here? Do we know?

It's a crucial question and very hard to answer. We actually did some polling on this with a firm called Premise Data who were able to do very quickly surveys. What they found, I should emphasize, isn't representative of opinion across the country just because of the sheer speed at which they did it and the relatively small sample size. It was reflective particularly of urban male and relatively educated Nigerians, many of them, though not all in the capital. But it does still provide a pretty striking snapshot of some of the mood in the country. It found, for example, that close to 80% of Nigerians who responded supported the actions of the junta. It suggested that over 70% of respondents think that the junta should stay in power for an extended period, or at least until new elections are held. Those are pretty high numbers. And when asked about international or regional intervention in Niger, about half of them said they were in favor of that. But far from that actually being an indication of support for Ecowas, when they followed up and said, well, by who? An alarming sort of 50% of those who said they'd be keen on some sort of intervention said they'd prefer it to be by Russia, presumably because they think it would support the putschists over the border in Mali. Wagner Group has been doing exactly that. So pretty sobering results in terms of Ecowas perspective of thinking about overturning the sut. Although, as I say, they are only a snapshot.

And if this does come to a military intervention, regardless of how much it's supported on the ground, what do you think we can expect?

Well, Ecowas has had some success with interventions in the region before, and this time around, they're probably hoping that as soon as the troops mass on the border or even sort of step across that parts of the Nigerien army, the junta may fold. But there's also a real risk of a difficult and bloody campaign. You know, Niger is a much larger and more complex country to intervene in than most of the ones that ecosystem have done. Before, their most recent was in the Gambia, which is about 100 times smaller. And of course, Niger has a Western trained army that seemingly at least supports, supports the junta. If there is a real fight, there's a risk that ECOWAS troops find themselves stuck in a three way fight between the junta's forces and jihadists as well. And the real wildcard in a way is whether there may be some involvement of the Wagner group. There have been some reports that Niger has requested assistance from Wagner. They certainly traveled to neighboring Mali where Wagner operates, and had conversations with the junta there. So the risks are really very high, that this could spiral quite badly. And that would leave a trail of real humanitarian distrust. And ECOWAS in past conflicts haven't always been, how can we say, extremely careful about civilian lives. And there's also the question of just where all this ends up. If ECOWAS forces did succeed in restoring Mr. Bazoon, there is a risk he could be perceived as something of a puppet of foreign forces, particularly if there was any hint of French involvement in the operation.

So let's put aside talk of military intervention for a moment. What chances do you give to diplomatic resolutions here?

Well, certainly diplomacy's ongoing. I mean, just on Monday, the US Deputy Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland was in Niger, met with some members of the junta, but her redact wasn't terribly positive. She didn't seem to have met some of the key players. She talked about it being difficult, so that doesn't look great. The international community is still trying to pull other levers. Aid has been stopped, other pressure is being put on. But the coup leaders, for their part, keep trying to whip up skepticism of the west, particularly of France. And so these efforts, you know, in the end may lead nowhere. The sort of last hope rests on the summit this Thursday between ECOWAS leaders deciding what to do.

But if that gets nowhere and the junta continues to rule in Niger, what do you think that means for the wider region?

Well, unfortunately, pretty bad news. Niger was making some progress under Mr. Bazoum combating the jihadist threat. Deaths were falling there, for example, unlike over the border in Mali and Burkina, where they've been really skyrocketing. And we know from experience there that juntas running the shop tend to do worse actually on fighting jihadists and reducing violence. So there's now a big worry that that violence in the Sahel spreads deeper into Niger, spreads further across West Africa and really causes greater death and destruction, not just for the Sahel, but for West Africa as a whole.

Kenley, thank you very much. For your time.

Thank you. Moms for Liberty is coming under attack by the left. That is a sign that we, we are winning this fight.

This is Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida.

Let me tell you something. You start messing with our kids, we've got problems.

He was addressing a gathering of Moms for Liberty, a new group largely of mothers, which was born out of the pandemic anti mask movement in 2021.

Rebecca Jackson is the Economist's Southern correspondent.

DeSantis wasn't the only big shot at the event on June 29.

Don't mess with America's moms.

Former President Donald Trump, the current frontrunner, was there to court the group, too.

I'm thrilled to be here with the proud patriots of the Moms for Liberty.

In total, five presidential hopefuls were at the four day event, and they all committed to battling what they call the indoctrination of children.

What does Moms for Liberty mean when they say indoctrination?

What they're really talking about is children's education. The group attends school board meetings across 45 states. And basically what they're trying to do is influence school curriculum and advocate for removing parts of that curriculum and books from library shelves that they find inappropriate. We've got to fight for this. This is our kids that we're talking about. This is Nikki Haley, one of the presidential hopefuls speaking at the event. She was interviewed by Tiffany justice, one of the three Florida moms who founded Moms for Liberty in 2021. You know, I saw the protesters outside, right? And I appreciate that because that's what my husband and every military man and woman fight for is the freedom of speech. To be able to do that, I don't love the sexualizing children part. I'll just be clear about that. Right. We don't have to agree on it, but they can say it. Moms for Liberty started off campaigning against mask mandates during the pandemic. Now their main crusade is to remove mentions of LGBTQ rights, critical race theory, and gender ideology from school books.

And if they've managed to attract the big shots from the Republican presidential race, then it sounds like this message is landing.

Well, to some extent it is. They claim that they now have 120,000 members across America, and they're pretty well known. But jumping head on into America's thorny culture wars has certainly given them an important place in the world of Republican politics. We want to normalize to our children everything that is not good. This is Carolina Stube. She's the national director of Hispanic Outreach for Moms for Liberty. And she's a mom herself. Everything that was bad, they're calling it good. They're normalizing the recreational sex. They are normalizing masturbation into little children.

So when Catalina says they, who is she referring to?

When she says they, she seems to be referring to the somewhat nebulous left, which includes librarians, teachers, and most of all, Democrats. This is the program. In the program of diversity and inclusion and sex education that they are pushing in all the schools, even for boys. They are teaching how to put your. Your entire hand inside your body. This is not sex education. I was shocked at this, to say the least, and pretty skeptical that this was what was being taught in schools. But the underlying message to change what kids are learning is exactly the message that Ron DeSantis, the governor of Catalina's state of Florida, has been pushing. A Florida school district has pulled 176 books from its libraries to comply with a new state education reform law championed by Governor Ron DeSantis. These laws mean that teaching kids about LGBT people has become a lot harder in Florida. I would have expected that the Moms for Liberty conference would be held in Florida, or at least another Republican state. But in fact, it was held in Philly. But locals in Philly were not pleased that the moms were coming to town. At the conference, Moms for Liberty members warned me to watch out because Antifa, an anti fascist group, had come to protest their event. I went to find out if that was true. Can I interrupt me for a second? Sure. I'm a journalist. I was told by Moms for Liberty that Antifa is here. I don't even know if they would know Antifa if Antifa bit them in the ass. This is just a whole bunch of people who care about our city and.

Don'T want to see fascists here.

They're chanting, these moms for Hitler have got to go. They've got a sign that says Philly is a trans city, another that says read and get woke. Go back to Florida. Go back to Florida. Even though the moms say that what they care about is really educating their children, the protesters definitely see them as a threat.

And there were some pretty serious allegations being thrown around there at the mention of fascism and Hitler and so on. How much of that characterization is fair?

Just a week before the conference, one of the chapters sent out a newsletter in which they quoted Adolf Hitler. They said, he alone, who owns the youth, gains the future. And in June, the Southern Poverty Law center designated them as an anti government extremist. Group with a crusade to dismantle public schools and promote anti LGBTQ curriculum. Moms for Liberty wholly rejects that claim. In fact, they do have lesbian mothers as part of their group. I spoke with one of them. Okay. Hey, I'm glad I wasn't wearing my heels, girl. Thank you so much. I'm sorry to be taking your time when things are so busy. You're fine, sweetheart. Tia Bess is Moms for Liberty's director of Engagement. I really want there to be transparency in education. I asked her what she made of the concerns that Moms for Liberty is anti gay or even racist. I say it's not true. You know, why would I be the National Director of engagement? And I'm a lesbian. You know, if they were anti lgbtq, I wouldn't even have this position. If they were racist, I wouldn't have this position either. Tia is a black woman, and she came off to me as extremely media savvy. In some ways, she epitomizes the ascent of Moms for Liberty into the heart of Republican politics.

So mixed in with the shocking stuff is a reasonable amount of sense, then, within Moms for Liberty. Do you think they're being unfairly demonized?

Some of what Tia is saying is wholly rational. Nobody wants to show children pornography in school. But there's a subcurrent within the group that's a little more extreme. Catalina, the Colombian American mother who we heard earlier, is convinced of some more outlandish ideas. She thinks that leftists are purposely introducing the devil's number into her children's homework. You see this number 666, all over the homework of your kids. They did it in purpose. That paranoia extends to how they treat media, too. I experienced some of this when I was walking around the hotel lobby at the event. The scariest moment came when a woman in a suit walked up to me in the hotel lobby. She claimed to be a detective and asked to see my driver's license. As she was taking photos of it, I was chatting with her a bit, and she said that she wanted to check that I wasn't antifa. It turned out that she was indeed a cop, had voted for Donald Trump, definitely found journalists dubious, and told me that she didn't think all proud boys were extremists.

And there's clearly a force there for people who consider themselves to be on the inside of this, right? Do you think that Moms for Liberty will be a strong force in the next election? If they've already drawn the big players from the Republican Party for Republicans.

It definitely could. But despite the movement's crazy rise in recent years, CBS News poll from 2022 suggests that 85% of Americans actually oppose banning books that contain political ideas that they disagree with. And this past spring, only one third of the school board candidates that Moms for Liberty endorsed won their seats. Whipping off maternal fervor may help Republican politicians in their primaries, but an allegiance to Moms for Liberty could really hurt them in the general election.

Thanks very much for joining us, Rebecca.

Thanks for having me, Jason.

Every day in Tiananmen Square in Beijing, there is a flag raising ceremony at sunrise. So just as the sun appears over the Forbidden City, the flag is unfold, raised and is soon waving triumphantly in the breeze. Now, it's not always accompanied by a full band and military detail like the one you're hearing now, which is for the first flag raising of the year. But I'm not really interested in the pomp and ceremony. I'm interested in the flag itself.

Daniel Franklin is the Economist deputy US Editor.

So the Chinese flag is deep red. It has five yellow stars, and it's instantly recognizable. That's the critical thing for a flag. Now, the Chinese government explains what it all means. The red color is for revolution, and the larger star represents the Communist Party and the smaller ones represent Chinese people. But the flag just works on multiple levels. It's recognizable, it's memorable, and it has clear symbolic meaning. All in all, it's a good flag.

So what made you start thinking about the Chinese flag?

When I started thinking about flags more broadly, not just the Chinese flag, but flags as symbols, national symbols, but also more local symbols. And what makes a good design? And what makes a bad design? When do they not work? A really good flag is actually really important. Think of the symbolism of Ukraine's flag right now, fluttering in many places around the world as a symbol of support for Ukraine, featuring quite often actually on our covers here at the Economist. Or a flag like Canada's with its red maple leaf, instantly recognizable and carried on backpacks all over the world, advertising the country. But unfortunately, not all flags work as well as these do. And that set me thinking about, well, what is good flag design and how to make flags better.

Okay, so if you think that the Chinese flag is a good one, then tell me what makes a bad flag. By the way, there are no wrong answers here, as long as you don't say the Nigerian flag.

Well, often the mistake is that flags are simply too cluttered, too much stuff in them. One of the worst flags that I've seen is the Minnesota flag, which is a cornucopia of imagery. Three dates back from the 1800s. A French motto, a river, a Native American riding away on a horse in the background, and in the foreground, a farmer tilling the land. It's very easy to forget and very badly designed with far too many small details. But happily, they're getting rid of it and a new one will replace it next May.

So if, like the people of Minnesota, you realize that your flag isn't the prettiest, that it's over cluttered, how do you go about changing it?

Well, first of all, you have to want to change it. I think you also need a degree of political support to change a flag. It's an important symbol, and often, even if a flag is not very well designed, people can be quite attached to it and don't want to change it.

Over the past year, New Zealand has.

Been caught up in a frenzy of.

Flag waving as the nation considers whether to replace the Union Jack with a silver fern.

So New Zealanders had their own version of this tussle over a flag several years ago when they had a very elaborate process of contemplating changing their flag, which features the Union Jack and looks not very different from Australia's. The people of New Zealand have a unique opportunity to decide the future of our flag. In the final referendum, your vote counts help decide which flag we stand for and how we're represented to the world. And after a long, drawn out process with lots of designs, voters in the end rejected switching to a new flag in a referendum in 2016.

Several months and $17 million later, it looks like New Zealand is going to keep its flag. The first results of a referendum show that more than half of voters want to stick with their current one.

So fair enough, they didn't like it. They stuck with their existing flag. But sometimes when there's a will to do it and when there's a good alternative, it's very obvious when a flag needs to change.

So what exactly makes a good flag? Basically, Daniel, if you had to design one for your hypothetical kingdom, where would you begin?

Well, I'd be a dreadful flag designer, but there's a whole field of study called vexillology which studies what makes for a good flag. And if you saw the show the Big Bang Theory, you may remember that Sheldon Cooper, one of the lead characters, tried his hand at becoming one.

Hello, I'm Dr. Sheldon Cooper. Over the next 52 weeks, you and I are going to explore the dynamic world of vexillology. Hang on, Dr. C. What's vexillology? Vexillology is the study of flags. Cool.

For vexillologists, there are three main things that make a good flag. First of all, keep it simple. Don't clutter it too much. Pretty good test is whether you can have a child look at it and remember it and design it from memory. So, for example, Japan's flag, a very simple red circle that would pass the test. Secondly, make it something meaningful that resonates. So think of Israel's Star of David or the Soviet hammer and sickle. Maybe it's a bit too far to have an AK47 rifle as used by Mozambique. But anyway, meaningful symbolism. And finally, be distinctive. You really don't want a situation where your flag looks just like somebody else's. So for example, Indonesia and Monaco try to see the difference, spot the difference between those two flags. Or Romania and Chad. Best to have a flag that is like no other and really has its own character. So for example, a flag like Nepal's, which is an irregular shape, the only flag in the world that does that, or a flag like Switzerland's, which is one of only two that is square rather than rectangular. And don't be afraid to make the change. So it's perfectly possible to do this successfully. There's one particular case that I like of a city in America in Idaho called Pocatello, which was judged to be in last place in a survey of vexillologists back in 2004among city flags in America. And it did change. It changed it in 2017. And in a survey last year, the new flag ranked 11th in the country. So, you know, good on Pocatello.

Well, good on them. Daniel, thank you so much for joining us.

Thank you, Ore.

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