Blood will out: Russian mercenaries

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Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist in New York. I'm your host, John Fassman. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. Just a few countries recognize Taiwan's sovereignty. China sees it as a renegade province and tends to lash out at anyone who hints otherwise. But one small European country is standing up to such wrath. Unbowed and pets provide their owners companionship and comfort even in the hardest of times. Included in the exodus of Ukrainians are lots of four legged companions. But first, After more than three weeks of war, Russian forces continue their onslaught against Ukraine. Mariupol remains under a devastating siege, and on Monday morning, the Kremlin demanded that soldiers in the city surrender. Ukraine refused. Russia's military is still trying to encircle Kyiv. Overnight, a missile hit a shopping mall in the city, killing eight people. But reports say that forces advancing on the capital have stalled. Ukraine has been holding off the Russian armed forces better than anyone predicted at the outset. But it's not just Russia's military that they're fighting.

The Wagner group has Been fighting all over the world.

Shashank Joshi is the Economist defense editor.

Of course, it's been fighting in eastern Ukraine, where there's been eight years of war between Kiev and Moscow. But it's also fought in Libya, in Syria. It has been active more recently in the Central African Republic, in Mali. And now, according to the British government, they're entering the Russia, Ukraine war that kicked off last month.

So what is the Wagner Group?

Basically, John? It's a private military company, what you might call a mercenary outfit. And it's not a single group, as the name suggests. It's a shadowy network of companies, entities, that kind of thing. And according to the European Union sanctions list, and it's on the sanctions list, it was founded by Dmitry Utkin, who is a former Russian soldier. And ironically, for a man now involved in a denazification campaign in Ukraine, he's covered in Nazi tattoos. The group is thought to be funded by a man called Yevgeny Prigozhin. He's sometimes been called Putin's chef. He's a restaurateur, and he has provided lots of the funds. Prigozhin is also known, by the way, for funding the Internet Research Agency, the big troll farm that operated against America in the 2016 elections. So, all in all, I think you get the picture here. This is not just a sort of autonomous private company that does its own thing. This is really an instrument of the Kremlin.

But why does the Kremlin need a private army? Doesn't Russia have a huge military on its own?

Russia does have a huge army, but Nonetheless, even with 190,000 troops committed to Ukraine, it's. It's struggling. It's struggling because it has split its effort across a number of different places. It's trying to capture Kiev, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Odessa, all of these cities. And it's become very obvious it doesn't have the manpower for it. So it is stretched. So one reason is to get that manpower in. But there's others as well, right? Mercenaries are unaccountable. You can deny your link to them, as the Kremlin did in Syria. It's also a way for the Kremlin perhaps to downplay its casualties. Casualties in Ukraine have been very heavy, perhaps 5, 6, 7,000. And mercenaries dying is a lot better for your domestic audience than conscripts dying.

And are the Wagner group the only mercenaries on the ground? Is Russia bringing anyone else in?

They're certainly bringing lots of other people in. I think they really do need boots on the ground. And I think the most interesting arrivals are the fighters from Chechnya. Now, Chechnya is this southern republic in Russia, and Chechen fighters, they've cultivated this image as fearsome fighters that's partly rooted in their resistance to Russian soldiers in the first Chechen war in the 90s and the second Chechen war in the late 90s, in the early 2000s. And they're sort of renowned for their brutality and their effectiveness. There were reports of Chechens fighting Americans in Afghanistan, and they kind of carry this sort of almost mythological aura around them. We've definitely seen Chechens involved in the fight. And then there are others from further afield as well. We have seen the Russian government whip up support from Syrian mercenaries. Of course, Russia has been fighting in Syria on behalf of the Assad regime. And Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who's Ukraine's president, says that more than 16,000 foreigners have volunteered to fight on the Russian side in the war so far. I think those numbers are exaggerated, but I think it is clear Russians are keen to get Syrians involved.

We've also been hearing reports of foreigners coming in on the Ukrainian side to fight. How does this compare? What's the relative scale of fighters?

I think the Ukrainians don't have all that many foreigners. They have a pretty big army themselves. They have lots of territorial defence units, lots of volunteers on their own side. But I think it helps cultivate this sense of international sympathy and support. Right. This is in some ways, like the international brigades of the Spanish Civil War, a cause that is seen as righteous and just, a sort of small, beleaguered state against an overpowering aggressor. And it's attracted attention from all across Europe. I think these numbers are very small. But what it does, I think, is lend the Ukrainian cause this sense of being almost a kind of cosmopolitan fight for justice rather than a narrow Ukrainian fight for survival.

On the Russian side, do you think these paid troops, these mercenaries, are as effective as trained soldiers?

Well, I think they have some advantages, John. So I think one of the key advantages is the. That as you look at the Russians prepare to assault cities like Mariupol, encircle Kiev, that there's a question over how effective Russian troops, Russian conscripts, even Russian professionals, are going to be in fighting brutally, street to street, against people whom they were told not that long ago were their Slavic brothers. How much are they willing to actually take that fight into those cities in the brutal way that it needs Now? Chechens and Syrians are not going to have the same compunction about fighting their way through and perhaps harming civilians in the way that's going to be required. The Wagner mercenaries have been repeatedly accused of human rights abuses. This is not a fighting force that has military lawyers peering over its every move. Journalists that have investigated the Wagner group have been killed in the past. So I think there's a purpose here that goes beyond just raw manpower. And also I do wonder if some of these units might also be serving as blocking detachments. In other words, units that sit behind the main force and prevent the Russian troops from defecting or from surrendering or from deserting. We've seen blocking detachments used in militaries in the past. Russia used them in the Second World War against Germany on the Eastern Front. And I think that Chechens are more likely to be willing to shoot a poor Russian conscript who tries to desert than an average member of the Russian military might be instead.

Well, do you think these external forces could change Russia's fortunes? Could they determine the outcome of the war?

In short, no. I think that Russia is still going to struggle. I think that they're not going to recruit all that many people in the grand scheme of things, certainly not enough to be able to totally alter their ability to storm cities. And I think there are substantial downsides to mercenaries as fighting forces as well. A lot of these mercenaries are ex military forces. Yes, they have some combat experience, but there are increasing reports that Putin is really scraping the barrel here, that they've had to lower the standard of recruit to get enough people for Wagner and for similar organizations that they're hoovering up. Ex convicts with no training and violent, untrained rabble isn't going to make for an effective fighting force. The Chechens, of course, have a lot of experience. They're probably going to be more cohesive. But if I look at many of these other groups, the Wagner group in Syria, for example, tried to assault a US Position, and they were bombed into oblivion. The Russians just disclaimed responsibility. We still don't know how far the Russians will actually claim responsibility for these forces in the field. And then even if they can take these cities, which is not guaranteed when it comes to occupation, how effective do we think an average fighter from Idlib province or from Grozny is going to be in controlling the streets of Kherson or Kharkiv, I think it's going to lead to some pretty nasty consequences. It's going to provoke a significant backlash from the Ukrainians. To me, the whole thing smells of desperation. You know, I think Putin is clutching its straws, having had a much harder time than he expected taking over this country.

All right, Shashank, thanks so much for joining us.

Thanks for having me, John.

Foreign.

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China is the world's most populous country and its second biggest economy. It's used to throwing its weight around and smaller countries are used to falling in line. But one unlikely place in the northeast corner of Europe is standing its ground. With a population of just over 2 million people, or around 1:10, that of just Beijing, Lithuania is hardly a geopolitical rival. But a diplomatic spat over Taiwan has enraged the Chinese Communist Party. It has hit the tiny Baltic state with sweeping sanctions. And with nearby Russia on the rampage, Lithuania has good reason to feel threatened on two fronts.

In the last couple of years, there has been a dramatic change in Lithuania's relationship with China.

James Miles is the Economist China Writer at large.

Lithuania used to have a close relationship with China. China saw it as a potential economic partner in Europe of some importance. But since 2020 and the election then of a China skeptic centre right, government relations have rapidly deteriorated.

Tell us how the spat between China and Lithuania came about. How did the two countries find themselves in this situation?

The immediate cause of this determination dispute arose over the naming of a Taiwanese office, not an official diplomatic mission, in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, that Lithuania allowed to be named the Taiwanese representative office. And that's simply unacceptable to China, which believes that the word Taiwanese suggested some degree of recognition of of Taiwan in effect as an independent country. And China believed that Lithuania was in effect discarding its agreement to only recognize one China and as a result launched sweeping economic sanctions against the country.

And what have those sanctions included?

In the past, China has tended to be selective with its economic sanctions, imposing them on certain products. In this case, it has been sweeping Lithuania's exports to China, some raw materials coming from China to Lithuania, as well as exports generally to China, including Lithuanian components. So this has been deeply unsettling for some business people in Lithuania, as well as politicians in Europe and further afield who wondering whether this is a new style of sanction by China that may have implications for other countries that offend China in the future.

So it's unusual. Has China been this vindictive toward other countries?

Well, it's certainly been vindictive to a number of countries, and Australia is one that has felt this acutely over the past year or two in the wake of its calls for an open, independent investigation of the causes of the pandemic, focusing on the possible origins of that in China to ensure that were there.

To be a virus of pandemic potential that would originate anywhere else in the.

World, we can learn the lessons from that. And that's what Australia is focused on.

And I've written to all the G20 leaders to the end, I don't want to express an opinion about it. I want to know.

And this has outraged the Chinese government, which has responded with trade sanctions against Australia, affecting a wide range of products there. Australia's economy is actually much more exposed to China's. And the economic pain in Australia is much greater than the pain now felt by Lithuania, which only exports 1% of its total exports to the People's Republic.

Even so, the sanctions sound like an expensive problem. Are you surprised that Lithuania did not cave?

It's been very difficult for Lithuania, and certainly opinion in Lithuania has been by no means unanimous in terms terms of support for the decision. Some opposition politicians have criticized it. Indeed, the president himself in January called it a mistake. But of course, this comes at a time when profound skepticism about China is not only taking hold in Lithuania, but across the West. I spoke to the Lithuanian Foreign minister, Gabrielas Landsbergis, who said that countries should be free to make their own choices and shouldn't be bullied by others.

It's no longer a question, at least from my perspective. It's not a question of a name of representative office.

It's about the possibility to make sovereign choices.

Some people ask, you know, why should Australia want to really look into how Covid started? Why would the country do that, having so many ties with China, but they.

Have a sovereign right to do that.

They shouldn't be punished.

So it's about.

It's about sovereignty.

I have to and in Lithuania's case, concerns about China are intermingled with concerns about another big authoritarian country that is posing a challenge, and that's obviously Russia. Lithuania borders on Kaliningrad, which is an exclave of Russia, where the Russian Baltic Fleet is based. It also borders on Belarus, from where, of course, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has in part been launched. And so the Lithuanians see in the conflict in Ukraine evidence of China cozying up to a power that is disturbing violently the European order. And so Russia and China combined are seen as a problem. And for that reason, I think it's going to be politically very difficult to roll back this decision, even if there was a will to do so.

And is China getting any international support for its position or has it isolated itself?

Well, the European Union, of course, is looking at this very closely and has taken up the case in the World Trade Organization, even though there are some officials certainly who wonder whether Lithuania was right to take this step, giving the Taiwanese mission in Vilnius this particular name. It's had backing in that from key Western countries. America, Britain, Japan, Australia have all signed up to the same effort in the wto. It may take a long time to grind through the system of litigation in that body. Nobody's expecting any quick verdict against the Chinese. But that is seen in Lithuania as an encouraging sign of broad Western support on this particular issue, even though there may be some misgivings within the European Union as to how this all came about.

Thanks so much for joining us, James.

Thank you, John.

When I got on a train out of Kyiv and went to sanctuary to Lviv with a lot of other Ukrainians who had just packed up what they could grab in 20 minutes to take their lives with them. We had suitcases and of course, the number of pets, tiny cats and dogs on this train was immense.

Richard Ensor is the Economist, Ukraine correspondent.

So many people couldn't bear the thought of leaving their cats and dogs behind. And it's just a testament to how important people's animals are to them these days that they grab them in, even in the wartime.

But loved or not, as I understand it, it's usually quite difficult to get pets into Europe. What have the regulations look like this time?

The irony of all of this is if you were a Ukrainian who wanted to bring your dog into the EU before the war, it was extraordinarily difficult. There are requirements for you to carry a pet passport for your puppy. You need to have proof of shots for rabies and other kinds of vaccines. And this paperwork would mean it's actually quite Difficult for a lot of Ukrainians to travel with their pets. However, a lot of that red tape, just as it has been waived for migrants themselves and refugees themselves, the EU has announced that a lot of this paperwork need no longer apply. So for people crossing into Poland, for example, it's no longer necessary to show all of this paperwork. You can just go through. That's not true everywhere. In Hungary, they're still requiring paperwork. And I even heard incredible stories of people forging puppy pet passports in Hungarian so that they could travel across the border with their pets.

And have there been lessons learned from previous refugee crises?

If you look at recent refugee arrivals to Europe, a lot of these origin countries, places like Syria, Afghanistan, even Western Africa, these are places that are not only very far away. And therefore, taking a tiny puppy with you on a boat across the Mediterranean Sea, for example, is not so practical as just driving or taking it with you on the train. But also, these countries do not quite have this postmodern, what the sociologists call the humanization of pets that's so popular in the west and indeed is very popular in Ukraine. We're talking about people who treat their pets like a member of the family, who make sure they've got very nice things to eat, who want them to sleep on the bed with them, that kind of inclusion. And that's why you see so many Ukrainians taking their pets with them.

Europe has changed regulations, but how has the attitude toward pets changed compared with previous wars?

Of course, it's natural to want to evacuate from a war with your family, but pets were for so long considered outside of the family for many generations ago. And you can look no further than the Second World War and how pets were treated. In London during the Blitz, for example, the government actually set up euthanasia clinics and told people to dispense with their animals because they said it would be humane, because they would spare the animals the horrors of war. So people lined up to kill their cats and dogs in the Second World War. And it contrasts starkly with the kind of love, attention, and care that Ukrainian pets are getting from their owners today.

So are there many pets left in Ukraine itself?

Not everybody who has fled has been able to to take their pets with them. Some of them were trapped outside of their hometown when the war arrived, and their animals are stuck in a place that they don't feel safe going to. Other people just felt like they couldn't take their pets with them. And so you've seen these kinds of de facto dog hotels spring up for people to have their pets placed under care. And I've heard a lot of stories from people who have turned into wartime babysitters for pets, trying to make sure that these. These animals have a little bit of safety, a little bit of food, making sure that they, just like everyone else, can get through this awful war. Of course, not everybody has fled Ukraine. There are people staying behind in big cities with their animals. And you can see that on the streets, in apartments, and of course, in the bomb shelters themselves. In places like the metro stations of Kyiv, deep underground, people are huddled there with their families, but also with dogs, cats, you know, rabbits and any other pets that you could care to name, because this is something that you really want to hold close when you're in a moment of deep instability.

I couldn't agree more. Richard, thanks so much for joining us.

Thank you.

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. If you like us, give us a rating on Apple podcasts and you can subscribe to the economist@examiner.com intelligenceoffer. See you back here tomorrow.