Containment or complacency? Covid-19 in Japan

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Hello and welcome to the intelligence on Economist Radio. I'm your host Patrick Lane, filling in for Jason Palmer this week. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. In Ugandan politics, the race for votes runs through the recording studio. Pop stars are also leading political figures. The president Uweri Museveni is faces a challenge from the self styled ghetto president, a musician called Bobby. Wine and turtles have an unfortunate habit of eating plastic discarded by us humans that ends up in the oceans. Why do they do? Could be because to a turtle, plastic smells like lunch. But first, In the coronavirus pandemic, Japan has seemed to be an outlier compared to its neighbors. The country has reported relatively few cases of COVID 19 around 1900. There has been optimism about its ability to contain the virus, but that optimism may have been misplaced. Over the weekend there was a rise in infections. Tokyo saw a record 63 new cases on Saturday and even more 68 on Sunday. The government has now banned people from America, China, South Korea and most of Europe from entering the country. The total number of cases and deaths is still low compared with many other countries. Yet the increase at the weekend is raising concern that Japan is set for a second wave. On Saturday, the Prime Minister Abe Shinzo warned the nation that Japan is in and precarious situation and Just about holding up. He promised to unveil an economic package of unprecedented scale within 10 days to mitigate the impact. The prime minister had been accused of complacency over the virus, even insisting until last week that the Tokyo Olympics would go ahead as planned. But after this sudden rise in cases, the country will be on high alert.

Well, there's been a jump in the increase of infections in Japan, and particularly in Tokyo, where infections last week were running at about a day. And then over the weekend that jumped by about half to nearly 70 a day.

Dominic Ziegler is the Economist's senior Asia correspondent.

And the big question that the authorities can't yet answer accurately is what's behind these infections? Some think that at least a portion are due to people coming back to Japan from overseas. That's almost certainly happened, but not everywhere. There's also been a couple of clusters, notably in a hospital in the northeast of Tokyo. But what is worrying experts is they're not sure how. Now the pace of local transmission is quickening, and they're clearly struggling to trace back those who are causing the infections.

One puzzle, as seen from outside the country at least, is why coronavirus apparently hasn't taken hold in Japan hitherto. Why do you think that is?

Well, it's notable that so far the number of infections in Japan are relatively low. They're under 2000 now. That's not entirely uncommon across East Asia. Bear in mind that all East Asian countries are seared by the memory of previous epidemics, in particular the SARS epidemic of 2003. So from that point of view, when the coronavirus became an issue in China very quickly, neighboring countries, including Japan, did what they could to track and to block infections. That's one reason. Another reason is that Japan has habits of hygiene and social conformity which help in fighting infections. So for instance, when earlier this year the government urged people to wash their hands more, they did so. But I would say that there's since been a certain degree of complacency and that what we're seeing now in terms of increases in infections is rattling that complacency.

Is that complacency being shared in government? I mean, has the government been too complacent up till now?

I think the government has been too complacent. It hasn't led from the front in this. And one reason might be confidence that the measures that have been taken, including the closure of schools last month, work. But another suspicion has to do with the Olympic Games that Tokyo was going to host in July for As long as the government wanted to claim that those Games would go ahead, it probably was not inclined to sound the alarm too much about growing cases of the coronavirus.

Well, if they were hoping to go ahead with the Olympics, if that was really what they were hoping to do, well, they've given up that idea, haven't they? In the past week, Shinto Abe, the Prime Minister, has been forced to cancel the Games.

That's right. I mean, to many people it was obvious a long time ago that he would have to do so. There was a reluctance on the part of the government to cancel them. But also there was a contractual issue. If both the International Olympic Committee and the government could not agree to postpone, then one side or the other could be held legally liable. So it took the agreement of both sides. And it's rather interesting that now that bubble has been burst, there's now more frankness about the pandemic. But the postponement of the Olympics is a big blow to Abe Shinzo, the Prime Minister. It was, after all, intended to cap an extraordinary political career. Mr. Abe himself was instrumental in winning the Games for Tokyo in 2013. But beyond Mr. Abe, it was also meant to showcase Japan Inc. Corporate Japan had had its confidence, the stuffing knocked out of it. Since the bursting of the property and stock market bubbles in the late 1980s, American tech companies have overtaken previous Japanese giants. The Olympics was meant to showcase all the great companies of Japan, from Toyota that claimed it was unveiling a flying car, to the all singing, all dancing toilets made by Toto, the lavatory manufacturer. So, yes, this is a blow for both the government and for corporate Japan. A big question now hangs over the vast amount of stuff, sponsorship, over $3 billion that many corporates were strong armed into coughing up. What happens to that money? Do they get any back? Will they have enough to be able to recommit sponsorship if the Games are held in 2021, which is the current plan. Although bear in mind that the course of the pandemic could mean that even 2021 appears too early.

Dominic, a lot has changed in the past week with the postponement of the Olympics and the increase in the number of cases at the weekend. But what's the immediate prospect now for, say, the Japanese economy?

Well, bear in mind that even before COVID 19, the economy was running on empty. In the last quarter of last year, it shrank quite sharply. Almost certainly the economy is now in recession. And bear in mind that none of the intended high spending by tourists and visitors coming for the Olympic Games well, none of that is going to come about. So in response to a rather bleak prognosis, the Prime Minister is rushing through a fiscal stimulus package worth about 30 trillion yen. That's about $300 billion, about half of which is spending. The other half is loans that should be passed within the next 10 days or so. But even that package will appear inadequate if, as I think is possible, the increasing acceleration of infections in Japan means that the government has to take much sterner measures to attempt to prevent the spread of the virus.

And do you think that those changes are now inevitable?

They're not yet inevitable, but I think they're highly likely. We haven't heard much about the possibility of this from the central government, but then a few weeks ago, Prime Minister Abe did pass a new emergency law giving the government certain extra powers in case there is a need for a lockdown. In practice, it's the prefectures and the municipalities that have the powers to do this. And note that Governor Koike Yuriko of Tokyo last week warned about the possible need for a much stricter lockdown. It would be a lockdown of the world's biggest megalopolis if you include the outlying areas around central Tokyo, over 30 million people. And in the last few days I think more and more Japanese are starting to understand what's ahead of them.

Dominic, thank you very much for your time.

Thank you Patrick.

To follow all of the economists coverage for the COVID 19 pandemic and how it is swiftly reshaping the world, visit economist.com Coronavirus. Around the world, leaders and politicians have responded to the coronavirus pandemic differently. In Uganda, where borders and schools are closed, MP Bobby Wine has released a new song with Nubian Lee Coronavirus Alert, advising people on how to stay safe. It's not the first time the politician has picked up the mic. He was a singer long before entering politics with a devoted following for his dance hall reggae tracks. Now Mr. Wine is running for president in next year's elections, challenging the 70 year old Uwheri Museveni, an autocratic leader who has ruled the country for 34 years. Mr. Wine is not the only singer to take up politics. At least half a dozen other musicians are also running for office. And Mr. Museveni himself has enlisted a team of musicians to sing his praises. Musicians play a large role in Ugandan politics and they use their songs and influence to connect with younger voters who are upset with the status quo.

Uganda has one of the youngest populations in the world. Four out of every five people here are under the age of 30.

Liam Taylor writes about Africa for the Economist, based in Kampala.

So what you have is you have young people, especially in cities, especially in the poorer parts of cities, who are feeling really frustrated because the same man, Yoweri Museveni, has ruled the country with an iron grip for 34 years. He's now in his 70s, and he's planning to run again at an election next year. And that frustration is finding its expression in music, especially in the songs of Bobby Wine. And if you walk around a place like Kampala, which is the capital, you'll find that music is everywhere, from uptown nightclubs to ghetto studios. That music is vibrant, it's dynamic, and it's youthful, whereas politics is completely the opposite.

So why are singers getting involved in politics?

So there's obviously a whole load of different reasons why singers get involved in politics. But when you listen to the lyrics of somebody like Bobby Wine, what really comes across very clearly is his frustration and passion about the way that life is, especially for the poorest people in places like Kampala. I met with Bobby Wine to talk about this, and that passion really came across.

Music has always been a political tool all along, only that we artists had not known how powerful it can be, because my lyrics was about the expression of the anger and the vibe that was going on in the ghetto. Having come from the ghetto, it was more of a representation of a ragtag society.

And besides Bobby Wine, who are the other pop stars in Ugandan politics?

So from the start, Bobby Wine's career has been entwined with that of two other big rivals called Bebe Cool and Jose Chameleon. And basically, this rivalry is a clash of egos. It's about proving who is the best. But especially with Bebe Kool and Bobby Wine, there is also a political edge, because Bebe Kuhl is the son of a former cabinet minister, and he's always been very outspoken in his support of the ruling party. Whereas Bobby Wine, on the other hand, he has styled himself as the ghetto president, somebody who speaks up for the common man. In 2007, for example, there was a big gathering of Commonwealth leaders in Kampala. The authorities started shutting down roadside stalls, demolishing makeshift dwellings and the like. Bobby Wine rushed to the recording studio with one of his collaborators, Nubian Lee, and recorded a song called Ghetto, which talked about the injustices of this. The lyrics are in Uganda, but give you an example, one of them says, on the day the queen comes, the poor man is going to be cleared away. Before these three characters arrived on the scene, Music in Uganda was Congolese bands and long guitar ballads. And then in the early 2000s, they burst through and everything changes. They're writing their own songs. They're bringing this unique Ugandan vibe from one of Jose Chameleon's songs from the time called Mamma Mia. Jose Chameleon has said he wants to run for lord mayor of Kampala in the election next year. He says his experience as a musician connects him with the people.

I've been a public servant for the last 20 years. I've been singing for the lowest class of people in my country and sing for the highest class. So I. I can identify both of them.

And behind them trails a whole chorus of other singers who are talking about entering politics or recording songs for politicians. The thing about being a musician in Uganda is you earn very little money from actually selling your songs because most of the music is pirated. So in order to make money, you need to either do concerts or endorse products, or, especially when election season comes around, a great way to get money is to perform at rallies. We're also seeing some singers like Bobby Wine and Joseph Chameleon following in their footsteps and saying, we want to run for office ourselves. In some cases, there may be an element of calculation to that. They're probably hoping to make themselves enough of a nuisance to be bought off by more established politicians. But it will certainly give a more musical flavour to the elections next year.

What does the political establishment think? How's President Museveni reacted?

So remember, this music is youthful and it's urban, whereas Museveni is an old man who is an never happier than when he is roaming around his fields with his cows. His own personal taste, he's said in the past, is for church songs, army tunes and Jim Reeves, who is a 1950s Nashville crooner. But Massevony is also a very skillful politician and he sees the power that music has. So, for example, he once released his own version of a folk song, which he kind of spun as a traditional rapid. In the 2016 election, he put up Ragasinger as the ruling party's candidate for lord mayor. Also in that election, he recruited a whole host of stars, including both Jose Chameleon and Bebe Cool, to record a campaign anthem for him.

So when you're out and about in.

Kampala, is all the music you hear about politics?

Not at all. I mean, lots of music here is about love, about dreams, about getting rich. It's the same as it is all over the world. But there is that political undercurrent increasingly to lots of the tracks you hear now. The problem is that when it comes to playing them on radio stations, radio DJs are quite nervous about playing some of the more political tracks, especially those from Bobby Wine. I spoke to a radio programmer at one station who told me he just won't play any political music anymore. And as for Bobby Wine, he's effectively blocked whenever he tries to perform in public. He's recently been trying to consult his supporters about his presidential campaign. They get arrested, tear gassed. Although he's very, very popular, it's going to be very hard for him to win that election next year because the playing field is so tilted. Opposition candidates in the past, even when they have been popular, have not come close, at least officially, to beating Mr. Museveni. But of course, that doesn't mean that his music is not still popular, as we've seen with his coronavirus song he's released this week, which is now being played all over the place, and people still enjoy the rhythms. In fact, in the 2018 Parliamentary Christmas Party, he grabbed the microphone to sing one of his biggest hits, and even the ruling party politicians were getting up to dance.

Liam, thanks very much.

Thank you, Patrick.

To get a lot more analysis like this, subscribe to the Economist, a trusted source of information and, well, intelligence for 175 years. Just go to economist.comradiotherapy 12 issues for $12 or 12 pounds. Billions of pounds of plastic can be found floating in our oceans, tempting the creatures that live there. From land to river to sea, the flow of far too much of our plastic waste. For turtles, like many other species, this can be a fatal attraction. A recent study from the University of Exeter found more than a thousand turtles a year are dying because of plastic. Now scientists have a new theory as to what's attracting turtles to eat our refuse.

Turtles have this unfortunate habit of seeking out plastic and eating it. And of course, they don't have the digestive tracts to break up plastics once it gets into their guts. And often this kills them.

Matt Kaplan is the Economist's science correspondent.

Researchers for a long time have questioned whether or not this might be down to an issue of mistaken identity. Having the plastics look like some of the things that turtles eat. You look at a plastic bag floating around in the ocean and you look at what many turtle species eat, which are jellyfish, and you go, oh, turtles can't tell the difference between jellyfish and, you know, Sainsbury's bags. I get that. But the thing is, turtles eat a lot more than sainsbury's bags. They're eating all kinds of plastic. So that led a lot of researchers to say, well, okay, mistaken identity. There's some logic there, but is that what it really is?

So what's their theory about what's really behind why turtles are gobbling up shopping bags and lego and plastic spoons and whatever else?

A team of researchers was looking at birds feeding in the ocean, and they noticed that birds seemed particularly attracted to a compound called dimethyl sulfide, which is found on all kinds of rubbish, particularly plastic that's left out for a long period of time. And animals that smell that stuff, even when it's on plastic, will eat it. At least seabirds do. And this led the researchers behind the turtle work, based out of university of Florida, a team led by Joseph Fowler, to question whether or not it was some sort of colonization of plastics floating in the sea that were leading turtles to have effectively to follow a siren smell, an odor that was making them think that the plastics were food, when in fact, it was not.

So the turtles are reacting as the seabirds do.

Well, that was the question that the researchers wanted to get an answer to. So Dr. Fowler and his associates set up an experiment that involves loggerhead turtles, which are among the turtles that are ruined by plastic quite often. And they put 15 of these animals, which were all just five months old, into an arena where the turtles would be exposed to nothing initially, and then an odor would be released. And the odors were generated from one of four samples. One of those samples was clean water. They would blow the odor of clean water into the space, and they monitored the turtle behavior. Another one was turtle pellets, which are made of all kinds of stuff that turtles like to eat, like shrimp. And another one was the odor of freshly chopped up plastic bottles. And the final odor was plastic bottles that had been left in the ocean for five weeks to kind of get kind of icky and then chopped up.

Which of the four proved the most popular?

To their surprise, the turtles responded nearly identically to the icky bottles that had been floating in the water for five weeks, as they did to the turtle pellets. As I'm sure you can imagine, turtle pellets go over pretty well with turtles. They like that stuff. And so the turtles, when they were exposed to that odor, they kept their nostrils up and out of the water for quite a lot longer. They were up for three times longer, and then they took twice as many breaths. They were up there, rather amazingly, plastic bottles that had been left in the ocean for five weeks and then chopped up. That odor drew exactly the same response as the turtle pellet odor, which means that regardless of what we may think turtles eat. Turtles seem to believe that the smell of encrusted plastic bottles is just delicious. Precisely what we do about it. Other than keeping plastic out of the ocean, though, that's a trickier problem.

Matt, thank you very much.

You're welcome, Patrick.

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. If you like us, give us a rating on Apple Podcasts. See you back here tomorrow, Sam.