Dam and blast: Ukraine launches counter-offensive

Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm your host, Ore Ogunbiyi. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. China's crimes against the Uyghurs in Xinjiang have been subject to heightened international scrutiny over the past few years. Many of the persecuted fled abroad, And now they're being pressured to stay silent about the suffering that they endured. And how's work? Perhaps you're lucky enough to share a cubicle with the world's loudest typist, or the department printer has died for the fourth time this week, or just as you've managed to focus, that fire alarm goes off again. Our columnist has some advice for staying sane in the office. First up though, a major evacuation is underway in the Kherson region of southern Ukraine this morning after a dam across the Dnipro River was destroyed. Torrents of water are cascading downstream, and at least 8 different towns and villages have already been submerged by the rising tide. Despite protests from the Kremlin, Ukrainian officials insist Russia is to blame. The governor of the Kherson region warned that flooding would reach critical levels in the coming hours, and accused the Russian army of committing what he called another act of terror. Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, has also laid the blame with Moscow, calling the destruction of the dam a war crime. The Kremlin may have a good reason to want the area flooded and impassable. The attack has come at a time when all eyes are on a much-anticipated Ukrainian push into Russian-occupied territory.

We've been waiting for a Ukrainian counter-offensive for months, and it looks like that offensive is now underway.

Shashank Joshi is The Economist's defense editor.

What isn't clear is whether the attacks we're seeing unfold, particularly in southeastern Ukraine, are probing, designed to test Russian lines and stretch them wide open, or whether the main effort is still to So tell us, how has this long-anticipated counter-offensive unfolded? Well, we've had weeks of what we call shaping activity. So we've had Ukrainian long-range missile strikes against Russian logistics and command posts. We've had cross-border raids into Russian territory, into Belgorod, in the last couple of weeks as well. We've had all kinds of probing activity to test the Russian defences. And what's happened is that on Sunday, Ukrainian forces then launched what Russia's defense ministry claimed was a large-scale assault on 5 different axes in Donetsk province. That's in the southeast, that's one half of Donbas. And Western officials are telling us that this is probably the start of the offensive alongside other attacks on other parts of the front. We saw attacks around Bakhmut, for example, a town in Donetsk that's been the locus of fighting for much of the past year. We have seen Ukrainian attacks up in the north in Luhansk province, which again has been fairly quiet recently but seems to be hotting up again. There have been some pushes in Zaporizhzhia in the south, but the most public attacks, the ones with the most images coming out on social media, came in a place southwest of Donetsk city in and around fairly small settlements. And what the sources are telling us is that Ukraine probably advanced by around 5 to 6 kilometers in these areas.

And is this what analysts are expecting from the counter-offensive?

I think the general view was that Ukraine would try and cut the so-called land bridge. That's the territory that stretches from Russia proper west all the way across the Sea of Azov coastline, connecting it to Crimea, the peninsula that Russia occupied and annexed back in 2014. And there was a sense perhaps that Russia would focus its main effort on the city of Melitopol, which is a city in the south. And if it got to Melitopol, it would be able to use its long-range artillery to put that land bridge at risk. The attacks that we're seeing are probably a little bit further to the east of that. If you look at the attacks in Donetsk, they're occurring probably about 125 kilometres due north of Berdyansk, which is another port city, also due north of Mariupol, the other crucial port city that Russia took last year. So perhaps a little bit further east than we expected, but nonetheless, squarely aimed down at that southern territory, that key connective territory that Russia was relying on to keep Crimea. It may also have come perhaps a little bit later than many Western officials expected. Certainly we thought it might start weeks ago. Some officials I spoke to were even getting a little bit impatient waiting for Ukraine to commit.

And Sascha, how much do we know about the full extent of Ukraine's plans here?

You know, honestly, not very much. We perhaps have a broad sense of what it's trying to achieve, which is take back its territory, launch a hammer blow on Russian positions. But actually Ukraine's government has maintained a pretty robust policy of information lockdown. We had a tweet on Sunday, for example, from Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine's defense minister, quoting a lyric from Depeche Mode, "Words are very unnecessary, they can only do harm." So in other words, we're seeing Ukraine try and achieve operational security, avoid giving away any details of these operations, trying to preserve the element of surprise. And what I think is happening is that we're still in a phase where Ukraine wants to keep Russia guessing about where the main focus of the attack will come, where the main breakthrough will be attempted. They're trying to stretch the Russian forces, which explains why you're seeing attacks as far north as Luhansk and in Donetsk and in a number of other places. They're trying to confuse the Russians. And indeed, to some extent, that's why we're also confused, because we're also looking at the same bits of information, trying to understand what's happening. What I do think is the case, looking at the images and the videos we have available, we have not yet seen signs of the best Ukrainian equipment, the most modern Western tanks, the most modern Western kit being committed to the fight yet. And I think that gives us a hint that these are still probing attacks that are designed to try and look for or open up more gaps in the Russian lines.

And if these are still probing attacks, when do you think we'll get a clearer picture of what Ukraine's plans are here?

To some extent, we're reliant on social media, particularly Russian bloggers who post pictures of what they see at the front lines. And I think if we begin to see large volumes of Ukrainian equipment that comes from the brigades that we know Ukraine has been building up with Western assistance, the brigades which have, for example, German Leopards or British Challengers or some of the most modern American infantry fighting vehicles. I think that would give us a sense that here is where Ukraine is attempting a breakthrough. I think we would also see very heavy volumes of artillery fire because of course Ukraine would need to do that to suppress the Russian defenses while it tries to break through Russian minefields, Russian trenches, Russian fortifications, all the defenses that I've been talking to you about on the show over the last few weeks. So we're going to see that kind of engineering equipment, the bridging equipment, the mine clearing equipment, come out. And I think we'll begin to see signs of it at the point of breakthrough. But look, the fog of war is very thick. And even with all of this incredible open source intelligence, these social media images, these snippets of video footage we have coming out today, I think this still shows us that a lot of what goes on on the battlefield is beyond our immediate visibility.

And Shashank, what will you be watching out for as the offensive continues?

I'll be watching out for a few things. One of them is where the Ukrainian main effort is. I still think there's some confusion about that. Is it going to be in Zaporizhzhia towards Melitopol, as many of us thought? Is it going to be further towards the east, perhaps towards the southeast? Or is it going to surprise us? Is it going to come somewhere completely different? I think we can't say that with any definitive certainty just yet. I'll also be looking at how Ukraine synchronizes other elements of its military and national power to support an offensive. So for example, what we also saw on Monday was a purported radio address by of President Vladimir Putin on Russian stations in regions bordering Ukraine, announcing that Ukrainian forces had crossed the border, that martial law had been declared, that there would be a nationwide military mobilization. And it turned out this was a deepfake. This was an AI-generated piece of propaganda. And my suspicion is that we're beginning to see Ukraine ramp up some of this information warfare to compound the confusion, to make it more difficult for Russia to understand what's going on. So I'll be watching that. And finally, I'll be looking very closely for signs of Western equipment appearing on the battlefield, signs that the most capable offensively equipped Ukrainian brigades are beginning to appear, whether that's French tanks, German tanks, other armor. I think that's what I'm going to be watching very closely in the hours and days ahead.

Shashank, thank you so much for joining us.

Thanks very much.

[Speaker:GHION.AI] In 2017, China started a mass incarceration campaign in the northwestern region of Xinjiang. It rounded up more than 1 million Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities, according to UN experts, and put them into what it called vocational training schools. But these schools were manned with armed guards who had shoot-to-kill policies for people trying to escape. And survivors told stories of rape, torture, and other human rights abuses.

Alice Su is a senior China correspondent for The Economist and the co-host of our sister podcast, Drum Tower.

It soon became clear that these facilities were not training centers. They were indoctrination camps, and they were ordered by Xi Jinping, China's president. He launched a security crackdown on Xinjiang after several deadly attacks against civilians by Uyghur extremists in 2013 and 2014. There are leaked speeches where Xi Jinping calls for absolutely no mercy on the minorities who are going to be put in those camps.

And what does the Chinese government have to say about these camps?

Well, at first the government called them fake news. Here's Wang Yi, the former foreign minister, in 2019. The foreign minister invited journalists and diplomats to tour the region. He said, "I promise you, you will find absolutely zero evidence of these so-called concentration camps, and you will find no signs of oppression." But later, after journalists did visit the region and reported on the camps, the government admitted that they did exist. However, it said that they were just vocational schools. And in 2019, the governor of Xinjiang claimed that everyone had graduated and was now in stable employment.

Okay, so bring us up to speed. What's happened since then? Have the Uyghurs returned to some semblance of a normal life?

So it's not completely clear because at the height of the crackdown, from 2017 to 2019, there were these obvious visible camps in the middle of Xinjiang's major cities. There seemed to be a turning point in 2019 when some of the people in these ad hoc camps were released, but at the same time, many were transferred to prisons for more formal and long-term detention.

So Uyghurs are still suffering in Xinjiang. Has international pressure then continued?

In 2021, several Western countries sanctioned Chinese officials because of Xinjiang. America called China's actions genocide, and several other countries had declared them crimes against humanity. But now China is trying to normalize what happened in Xinjiang. It's dismantled the most obvious signs of repression, and it's bringing foreign delegations, especially from developing countries, to come to Xinjiang. But the biggest obstacle to their narrative is Uyghurs who live abroad and whose families are still suffering. Now China is trying to silence them too.

How so?

One way that the government tries to silence Uyghurs abroad is by using their families. So I spoke to one Uyghur whose name is Koser Wyatt. He's 26 years old and he lives in Boston in the U.S. His father was in a camp for 2 years and he was released in 2019. So Koser decided to give a testimony about what had happened to his family. As soon as he spoke up, he was cut off from all of them. For 2 years, Koser didn't know anything about what was going on to his parents back home. And in 2021, he got really worried because of COVID and because of the lockdowns that were happening all over China. So he started calling his local police, and surprisingly, they agreed to connect him to his parents, but the condition was that he had to stop speaking out.

And he basically threatened me.

He said, "If you are not silent, how can I let you speak to your parents again?" He said, "Just like a family has a rule, a country has a law, and anyone goes against that gets punished." Koser told me about how he has been wrestling with the choice between keeping quiet and having contact with his family, even though every time they talk, there's a security agent in the room so they have to censor everything they say, or if he should speak up in public and lose touch with them again.

And Alice, is this a dilemma that people are facing throughout the Uyghur diaspora?

Yes, it is. And it's something I have been hearing about more and more in the last 2 years. So earlier this year, I traveled to Istanbul in Turkey, which has one of the largest Uyghur diasporas outside of China. There I met a woman named Negara who told me an incredibly harrowing story. So Nigara was not an activist. She went to Turkey as a student, and she grew up in a very apolitical family. She never thought that anything would happen to her. But like many other Uyghurs, she lost touch with all of her relatives in 2017 when the camps were rolled out. It was so sudden.

At first, I didn't take it seriously.

I just thought they meant they wouldn't call me for a few days and that would be it.

When I asked why I couldn't call them, my mother was angry.

She said, "Don't ask why or what happened, just do it." Then she hung up the phone.

And did she manage to speak with them again?

So in 2021, Negara got a friend request on WeChat, which is, you know, the messaging app that all Chinese people use. It turned out to be a security official from back home, and at first he said that he was going to help her find her family, but then soon he started harassing and manipulating her. He would send her 10-second voice notes of her mother's voice that she hadn't heard in years, and then he would ask her for things like money or revealing pictures of herself. Eventually, Nagara had a mental breakdown, and she decided to cut that security agent off, even though it would mean losing touch with her family. And Nagara's experience is just one example of how the Xinjiang police are still able to reach and control Uyghur's across borders, even when they are far away.

And did you reach out to the Chinese government during your reporting? What did they have to say?

We reached out to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and to the Xinjiang regional government, and the Foreign Ministry responded. They said that there are anti-China forces who are fabricating ludicrous reports to smear Xinjiang, and they said these reports are not worthy of a response. They also said that Xinjiang is now stable and prosperous, and people of all different ethnicities are living and working happily.

And Alice, you've been exploring this transnational repression of the Uyghurs for our sister podcast Drum Tower. Tell us more about that.

That's right, we have prepared a special double episode of the show which comes out later today. When you listen to it, you'll hear about Koser, Negara, and other Uyghurs overseas who had to negotiate with Chinese police for access to their families And you'll get a lot more detail on the ways that China is trying to silence Uyghurs even from far away. Please listen to those episodes. You'll be able to download them wherever you get The Intelligence.

Alice, thank you so much for joining us.

Thank you.

Noises can be irritating, to say the least. But for some people, that irritation becomes something almost insufferable.

Andrew Palmer writes The Economist's Bartleby column on management and work.

A recent piece of research revealed that as many as 1 in 5 people in Britain suffers from something called misophonia. Misophonia, a condition in which certain sounds causes them disproportionate distress. If you can listen to your spouse eating an apple and don't immediately want a divorce, you are not a sufferer of misophonia. But you may have another similar condition for which the workplace is the perfect breeding ground: misogonia, or what is more colloquially known as desk rage. Desk rage is the name bestowed on the eye-gougingly deep irritation triggered by certain aspects of office life. Like misophonia, sounds are often the trigger for misagonia. The routine fire alarm test is a case in point. "Attention please, attention please," shouts a voice that is literally impossible to ignore. "This is a test," it roars. Making it clear that your attention is not, in fact, required. More shouting and eardrum-piercing noises follow. And then, most galling of all, a message at the end that thanks you for listening. "Thank you for paying attention to this test fire alarm." It's the oral equivalent of a prison thanking you for choosing them for a stay. By the end of it all, A real fire sweeping through the office would to many be a sweet release. Other noises are less obviously intrusive but just as annoying. The noise of clicking keys is the soundtrack of cubicles everywhere. But every office has its share of keyboard thumpers, people whose goal seems to be not producing a document but destroying the underlying equipment before one can be created. Verbal tics are another tripwire for misagonia sufferers. Take one expression that particularly that particularly irks me— have you noticed how— "This is a point that has already been made, but—" —is how weirdly large numbers of people start to make a point that has already been made. Why not just say, "I don't value your time," and be done with it? But sounds aren't the only thing that can cause desk rage. If the noise of your cubicle mate constantly sneezing isn't enough to get you, There are always technical issues. Small IT failures are a fact of office life, but they can still be soul-destroying. The printer which jams repeatedly is a case in point. Frustration from printers is such a relatable source of workplace frustration that it was mined for comedy gold in the 1990s film Office Space.

No, not again. Why does it say paper jam when there is no paper jam? I swear to Oh my God, one of these days I just kick this piece of shit out the window. You and me both, man.

That thing is lucky I'm not armed. But the office printer is far from the only IT problem that haunts us. There are the Wi-Fi dead zones that lurk in the corners of almost every office. There are the headphones that never work. What about the mouse that gives up at just the wrong moment. Imagine you're on an important Zoom call and about to present. Your cursor is hovering 2 centimeters from the unmute button. But when you're called upon and it's your turn to speak— So, what's the status of those quarterly reports, Jim? —you move your mouse towards it and nothing happens. You rattle it around more vigorously and still no response. Either your cursor is in a coma, or the battery has run out. "You're still on mute," offers up a colleague helpfully. But before you can solve the problem, someone else takes the opportunity to fill the gap. "So this is a point that's already been made," they begin. Almost every office worker will have their own triggers—ostensibly tiny things to which they are extremely sensitive. It might be the person who still doesn't understand you have to tag someone in Slack to notify them of a message. It might be when you're in a crowded lift and the doors are closing, only for an arm to snake in and a voice to ask, "Room for one more?" If you were the size of a marmot, sure. It might be someone who stomps around like an elephant, or someone who drenches themselves in perfume. It might be the way someone insists on using the word pivot. It might be anything, frankly, which means that for some of your colleagues, it might also be you. There is no cure for misogynia. The workplace is a collection of people in enforced and repeated proximity. The habits, noises, and idiosyncrasies of these people are bound to turn into something familiar, or even charming for some colleagues, and disproportionately grating for others. The only release is to go home, close the front door behind you, and find your significant other tucking into an apple.

That's all for this episode of The Intelligence. Let us know what you think of the show. You can drop us a line at podcasts@economist.com. And if you're not a subscriber to The Economist, you really are missing out. Dive in, get a free 30-day digital subscription by going to economist.com/intelligenceoffer. The link is in the show notes. We'll see you back here tomorrow.