Digital transformation and the future of business: Futurist Speaker Gerd Leonhard in Warsaw

So I don't know what Magdalena said, but I want to say I understood Futurista, which I guess that's. That's a good fit. Thanks very much for having me again, Magdalena, and it's great pleasure to be back in Warsaw. I've been here a few times the last few years and I find it very interesting always to talk to people, to see what's happening here. I currently live in Switzerland, but I was born in Germany. I lived there for. Well, until I was 22, and then I moved to America. So if I speak about things that have to be perfect, that's my German soul. If I speak about things that are fantastic and awesome, that's my American soul, the 20 years I spent there. And if I try to say nothing, that's my Swiss soul. And try to be very careful, you're not getting an image. Okay, Was working before. Otherwise we'll have to speak forever. Without slides, that's also entirely possible. So not a problem. My website is going to be a featurewizger.com I will have the slides there. They're available later for downloading because I have quite a few slides. If I speak too quickly, please do wave at me so I can slow down because it's a very bad habit I got from the American way of doing things. Are you getting this to work or should we retry this? No, it's on. It's a PDF. I don't want to use the PDF. Sorry, just one second, please. Okay, let's try this again. Are you getting a signal? Sorry, technology is. Yeah, I was using a Mac before, so. Well, we have to go back to this, huh? Okay. All right, let's use this one. So you will not see all my beautiful animations I put into my primary version. But that's okay, we can still make it work. So let's talk about this first. Many of you probably don't even know what a futurist is. I didn't know what a futurist is until I became a futurist. Basically what I do is I look at the key trends in the next sort of five to 10 years and I try to find out what are those trends. Is important for the clients that I work with. And I run a company in Switzerland called the Futures agency, and there's 27 of us, and we basically try to help people reinvent. We have 150 people working in the fields of technology, media, publishing. And this is kind of my job. You can see here it's actually pretty straightforward, just paying attention to things Listening to things. There's a great saying in China that says, if you want to know about the future, ask your children. It's kind of obvious. You know, most of you. If you spent 90% of your time looking at the next five years, you would know what's coming. And we also have a very good motto at the futures agency. The motto is, it wasn't raining when Noah built the ark. A lot of my companies that I work with, there's over 200, they have exactly this problem. They have a good business. But in five years, their business is so likely to change. It's extremely difficult for them to catch up with the times. So what I focus on is what I call the hard futures. And those are things that will definitely happen. I used to be in the music business in the 90s. And you may remember 1999 was the year of Napster. Remember Napster? Downloading for free. And in the year 2000, I started a company like Spotify. You may know Spotify, a streaming company, because it was clear that music will move to the cloud. That was clear in the year 2000. The record companies and the record corporations that made music, they did not agree with the idea of music moving to the cloud. And they fought it for 12, 10, 15 years, really, in the courts. The record business sued 258,000 people in court. And what do we have today? Music in the cloud. But they have lost 70% market share in five years. Very few people will still know who EMI Music or Sony Music is as a result. Because when you ignore the context of what is changing, you become irrelevant. That's something we can see with many businesses. So I'm focusing on these sort of practical things. And the bottom line is what we're seeing today is exponential technological change. That means Moore's Law. You're familiar with Moore's Law, of course, right? Technology doubling every 24 months. But Moore's Law is causing huge societal changes. Okay, we're still there. Yeah. Okay, that's good. Equipment is working. Otherwise I will have to just ran forever. But so the societal changes that we're seeing because of technology, imagine this today. Because now we have, for example, automatic, like, language translation. We have it in Skype. We have an app called say Hi. It's a $2 app. If you download this app, you can speak in 34 languages. Three months ago, I went to Japan to speak. I went to a sushi restaurant afterwards, and I was able to talk to the sushi chef in German, and he spoke to me in Japanese. I mean, if you want to do any dating, this is a perfect app for that. If you want to. If you're dating people that don't speak your language, like Tinder plus or something, I don't know. But anyway, so I was able to talk to this guy for 30 minutes. So it's really science fiction, what is happening, right? It's exponential. And the things that we're seeing now in technology is mind boggling. We've always talked about the paperless office, right? Has never happened, but now it's happening in a big way. Paper is going out of style in offices slowly but still. I think in most countries will take a little while. But cloud computing, mobility, cheap mobile devices, paperless office, self driving cars, that was almost like a flying car 10 years ago. In five years in most European cities, we'll have some self driving cars going on fixed roads. We'll have trucks on our highways going on separate roads. I mean, this is science fiction, right? So exponential technology also means in 10 to 15 years we can solve the energy problem. Cheap batteries, solar energy, switch to renewable, we can solve global warming, we can potentially solve things like cancer. Imagine this exponential curve of DNA editing. Of course we have lots of other problems when we use this kind of technology because if we can solve cancer, we can also program our babies. So there's lots of issues about ethics, which I'll get to in a second, but my statement is humanity will change more in the next 20 years than in the previous 300. And if you have kids, I think you'll feel different about this. What in the world will your kids do for work? Well, the answer is they will have jobs that are not even invented yet. I mean, I have two kids at 21 and 26. They both have no idea what they're going to be doing because it seems like every job is only temporary. I mean, it's all about data, technology, science, engineering, math, and then we have of course, artificial intelligence, all these things. It seems kind of obvious that because of technology we will have rapid automation, rapid automation of jobs. Bookkeepers, financial advisors, taxi drivers. Some people are saying roughly 45% of all jobs can be automated in the next 20 years. So think about your own job, think about your kid's job and your kids of the kid's job. My job, for example, is under danger. I don't think I'm personally under danger. I can do fine without a job. But basically what's happening here is that now the first time this year, the first TEF conference will be held where you have a Robot giving a speech. So you can ask the robot on the future of business, and the robot will pontificate for as long as you let him run. It's the Oracle bot, I call that. But anyway, that's a different future. So exponential. There's a great book that just came out called Exponential Organizations. This book is a great read. It's very Silicon Valley, but it's still a good thing to read. And the important thing is that because of the difference between linear and exponential, we have a lot of disruption. We have all these companies who are looking to substitute what people used to do differently before. First media, banking, education, government, energy, cars. So this sweet spot that you see here, right between the linear and the exponential, that is the interesting part. If you can do something with technology that uses that interim part, you know, that hotspot, that's the takeoff point. So I had a whole bunch of examples that you can't hear now because we had to switch to the PDF. You can't see them now, but there's like 50 things that are in quick succession, like bionic limbs, being able to replace a war veteran's arm or leg with a prosthesis that works better than the previous one. In fact, now there's people who want to have their legs removed to have better legs. Can you imagine that? I'm not joking here. This is actually happening. So technology is really changing the way things are happening, and this is what it comes down to. I think we're lucky that we get to live in this future. But humanity and technology is converging. You know, the mobile devices that we have here, all of you have this. This is our external brain, right? This is a second brain outside of your body. And this second brain is becoming so much more powerful and cheap and fast. This phone here has the entire computing power that the President of the United States had 15 years ago. It's all in here. In five years, this machine will be more powerful than all of the computers in Poland, or for that matter, in Europe combined in five years. So what that means is that as humans, we can behave differently. We can do different things, we can see different things. I'll have some examples on this, but in many ways it's called, sometimes referred to as hell, Van. You know, hell and heaven at the same time. Because many of these things would be very good for us. For example, if we have robotic people picking up the garbage, robotic robots picking up the garbage, we don't have to do that anymore. But the hell part is that what happens to those jobs if Our software is doing the work for us. That's great. But at the same time, how are we going to replace those jobs and who's going to do what at which time? So that is a key question you see on this slide here. What is happening with what's called the Internet of things. So connected devices, cars, power plants, sensor networks, wristwatches, clothes, helmets, weapons, everything gets connected. You see on this chart here how many people are searching for this. And the top one of that is wearable computing, things that you wear like a wristwatch, the smart city, the smart home, the industrial Internet. I mean, these are all things that are happening all at the same time. Now. I mean, if you're in the technology business right now, of course it's a huge explosion of possibilities. But then again, you have to think about what this will do to our society. People behave differently. And of course, humans are not exponential. You can do whatever you want. Your brain isn't going to be a hundred times as fast in two years unless you take some serious drugs. But think about that change. We are staying on the exponential. We're growing exponentially. Only in a matter of age, for example, but not in a matter of power. Then we have consequences of technology. Like the self driving car is a great example. So the other day I drove a self driving car. I tested it with one of my clients. It was very interesting and we talked about what happens when. So the engineer said, for example, the car has a great limitation because it cannot make decisions. If you take the self driving car and you drive down the road and there's a frog on the road, the car will say, well, what do I do now? If there is no double yellow line, I can go by the frog. If the frog is moving, I can't risk running or killing the frog. So after a while the car just stops, right? You have a double yellow line, the frog is still there and you don't know what to do. It would take a human one tenth of a thousandth of a second to decide what to do to kill the frog. It's just a frog if necessary, or to drive around it and break the rule of the yellow line. But a machine can't decide that. In this example, you see here what happens when there is going to be an accident that is unavoidable. Will the self driving car kill itself? Will it kill the oldest person that it may kill, or will it kill the least amount of children or whatever? I mean, those are decisions that a computer needs to think about. That is an ethical decision. So you're going to see self driving cars, but not in the sense of going out to the Polish countryside and just riding around. You know, that's not going to happen for quite some time. But limited things. That's a typical hell van scenario. And so you see here, unfortunately, again, because the graphics are now a little bit put together, but basically in 2027, the first computer will have the computing power of the human brain. Today, the most advanced computer has the computing power of a cricket compared to our brain in 2027, a place called the Singularity, an event called the Singularity, which means that one computer can sort of have the capacity of my brain. And then in 2050, one computer will have the capacity of all human brains at that point, roughly 10 billion. So at that point, the latest, the question is going to what do we do? What do they do? And if you're a business, you're facing that question every day now because you have to think about how far you go with technology. So the key question you have to ask with technology today is not whether you can do something, because the answer is always going to be just ask Microsoft, right, yes, we can do this. It's possible. Ask any tech company that will say, yeah, put enough resources, we can do this. And so the question is not if you can do that, but the question is what you should do and why. The purpose of business, as Socrates has said thousands of years ago, is happiness is to create customer happiness. So the question you have to ask, is technology going to help this or not? And this thing called digital transformation, which is very hard to define what it actually means, that's basically going from all the analog way of doing things to a digital way of doing things. And Marshall McLuhan, who was one of the key futurists a long time ago, social analyst, he basically said it's the framework that changes with each technology and not the picture. Not just the picture. So it doesn't really matter so much whether we discuss about how we're going to use big data or whether we roll out the Internet of things. But what is the larger story? Larger story is that everything around us is going digital, automated, virtual, cloud, connected, interdependent and intelligent. And that is changing the way that we look at the world. Here you see some of those framework changes as the technologies that will shape that future. Cloud computing, mobile and so on. I mean, you know all these things. But the magnitude of this in five years is when you count from four, the next step is eight. That's in two years. In four years it's 16 and in six years is 32. 32 is like, I don't know, what is it? 16 times as much as two. I mean, the leaps we're going to see here will be mind boggling. So we're heading into what Ericsson calls the network society. And if you're looking at this old paragraph shift here, you see in this slide from Paul Beren, the network topologies. You're going from the old way of doing things, which were centralized, to the latest way of doing things five years ago, which were essentially decentralized and networked, and the future, which is distributed. So in the sense of cars going from an old Mercedes to a Volvo, that connects to a Tesla network of cars. And that is going to happen across all businesses. The first business for that to happen to go the network way was music. Music is now in the cloud and networked and films and books. Next is banking, insurances, government, education, transportation, energy. So those shifts are going to happen across the board. Great example. Unfortunately, again, you don't see that moving here. But the whole point of showing you this was to show that, for example, bankers are looking at this and saying, well, if we can use the blockchain, the bitcoin kind of idea to lower the transaction cost of sending money, if we can control that, then essentially we're going to see the same thing. This person here from MasterCard, I think she says that basically this kind of idea would be like email for money. Remember that email is free. If you're in the banking business, you're facing a disruption of huge proportions because technology will make sending money and getting cheap loans and doing the basic banking stuff 95% cheaper. How much did you use to pay for music? Maybe €20 a CD or maybe a download from BitTorrent for free, I don't know. But €20 per CD. How much do you pay for Spotify? 8. For 16 million songs. That's going to happen to all services that become a commodity. Media, publishing, cars, transportation and energy. So what we need to do is to figure out what we would do about this. I mean, if you've seen the exponential curve about bitcoin, the first major investment in this company that used to be blacklisted as a means of basically criminals to use this kind of protocol. Now Kleiner Perkins, the biggest investor in the world, is investing in the blockchain concept and the bitcoin concept. Unfortunately we can't see that what was behind it. But this guy Gary Hamill said, you know, he's a very smart writer. He says the single biggest reason companies fail is that they over invest in what is as opposed to what might be. And the layer behind that showed you the music industry and you see a little tale of this there. The music industry has gone from buying CDs and downloads to being in the cloud. Spotify, YouTube and Apple own the music business. ITunes currently is 81% of the music business. YouTube is trying to get that. It's no longer the label. So basically you have to anticipate the framework changes. So if I say that some of you may be in the banking business or in transportation or logistics, that framework is changing dramatically and you have to anticipate how that framework changes to actually see it. One of those things is what has been referred to as the experience economy. So that means we used to buy products and then we bought services like subscriptions, and now we're starting to buy experiences. Think about this for a second. If you buy an iPhone, you may spend €1,000 to buy the iPhone. And you feel happy about it for about a day or maybe a week, maybe a little bit longer. But if you take the thousand euros and you go hiking in the mountains with your kids, you'll think about that for the rest of your life. That is how much experience is different from a product. And the more easy we can get new products, the more we think about experiences like events, get togethers, real experiences. And if you're looking at what is really successful now in terms of software and technology like Airbnb or Uber, these are providing a service that becomes an experience that you can think about. You see on the left this chart that says basically lots of research has pretty much proven that people are valuing experiences more than anything else. In fact, the purchase decision of a car or any large consumer good is based on an experience economy. What could I possibly experience with, with this? So you have this conversation about this going up to the chain there, going to an experience economy. So if you're in tourism, you know this is all going to be about experiences. If you're in the hotel business, pretty much all of these things you see on the top row here, typical experience. Uber. Right next to Uber is a car called Local Motors. This car is printed with a 3D printer. So now we can customize your experience. You can say, I want to have a green frame or a blue frame, or you can download the latest update from Tesla and your car is a different car because it's based on software. Tesla is the best example for the economy switching from hardware to software. Tesla downloads new software and the next morning you have a new car, you can have another experience. So it's very important to make that shift. So, for example, in a software business, you can see that it goes away from routers and switches to software defined networking experiences and they get cheaper. So you have to think of new revenue models. This guy, very smart guy, you probably know Marc Andreessen, founder of Netscape, he said years ago that basically software is eating the world. Everything around us is becoming software. And he said this about six years ago in the Wall Street Journal and he was right. Music is software, films are software, books are software. Now banking is becoming software, Cars are becoming software, people are becoming software robots, basically. So the question that we have to ask, when you're looking at your business, which part of your business can be contested as software? It was really funny. 10 years ago I had a workshop with a bunch of my friends with all the CEOs of the major hotel companies and they were asking a question, can somebody invent something that's going to really threaten our business to basically provide different kinds of accommodations, like ebay style. This was before Airbnb, right? And a few years ago Airbnb comes in the market and this is the biggest competition for mid level hotels, not for fancy hotels really, because it's using a database. It doesn't own any hotels, it doesn't build any hotels, it doesn't pay any taxes. Not yet. That will change, I'm sure. But imagine that the biggest company in the world, I mean Airbnb is adding 30,000 rooms every two weeks. That's a 15 year program for Hilton hotel chain to add 10,000 rooms. Airbnb is worth twice as much as the Hilton hotel chain. So basically this is all about software. Everything that we used to be, that used to be hardware is becoming software and that is basically reframing our lives. It's going to reframe education, banking, insurances, entertainment was already there. I was going to show the clip here with Microsoft Hololens, which some of you may know, but we can't get that to work now. So check it out on YouTube. Just HoloLens h o l O lens. It's a great clip showing as to how we are starting to see reality differently. A few years ago Google Glass tried this. Remember Google Glass? And people looked at it. I had one. It was terrible because everybody hated you. But now we have like 20 companies doing this. Facebook, Oculus Rift, and Google is coming back as well. And Microsoft and Samsung and you name it, this will be our new Reality, in a few years, this will be as normal as using WhatsApp. Wearing glasses. Not socially, but for business. Firemen, doctors, policemen, airport check in service organizations where you can see the data in front of you as you're working. The Microsoft HoloLens project is particularly interesting because they're looking for an end price of about $250, which means in five years it'll be $10. Imagine how that will change the world around us. So in general, what's happening with technology and business? You know, it used to be a very clear cut situation. You were either a tech company or you were in humanity, which means politics, culture, society, you know, that sort of weird thing or organization, which is business. And there was a really clear cut difference. And today, sorry, that didn't work. Yeah, well, that's because the animations aren't working because of our switch. You will not get to see the second part. I will have to explain that to you. The second part is essentially a merging of those three circles. So the future is that we're converging humanity, technology and organization. And this is really an interesting scenario. So if you're looking at companies like Tesla, for example, they're not just inventing new technology, they're inventing a whole new way of energy and of mobility. And that is going to change. For example, some people are saying in many cities around the world, we will not have public parking in 10 years because we won't have cars that have to park. Imagine how much space that would unlock in a city if it wasn't for all the parking. We may no longer have Traffic jams in 15 years in Los Angeles or New York or because all the cars are coordinated through the Internet of things. That's not just going to be a big deal with the environment, but also in terms of how people live. So I get this question a lot when I talk to companies about digital transformation. The question is, how do companies and people change? And the answer is right here. Through pain and through love. That means you have pain because you realize all of a sudden your business is no longer going to work as it did. I mean, how many of you would go home and say, you know, I'm thinking about this, maybe in five years it'll be something completely different. Did you know that most of the Fortune top 100 companies, 40% of them, are no longer living longer than 15 years? They used to live 75 years. I mean, how quick do companies change now? Google, in a way, is what Microsoft used to be. Kind of the boring tech guys. Google is becoming that now and Google is becoming more objectionable now than Microsoft ever was. Like privacy, it was very interesting in a very short time frame. So very interesting scenario here in this transition. The other thing you need is love, which means a great idea that you believe in. It's not enough to have just pain, that would be enough in Germany, I think. But you also have to have a good idea and really like it. Like Jeff Bezos from Amazon invented the Kindle. Many of you have a Kindle. The E Reader, I'm sure. And he invented it. He went to the publishers and he said that many people are going to want to switch from reading printed books to the E Reader. The publisher said, well, nobody's asking for this and we're not going to give you a better price for these. So he ended up buying the rights for the book as an electronic book for the same price in the print. And he subsidized $5 billion worth over three years. And now he's selling three times as many ebooks than he sells in print. And they've become a publisher. So falling in love with an idea can be extremely risky. Like every love affair can be very risky. But you need both, you need both to change. So if you're in a company where there is no risk taking and nobody is really excited about anything, that is a bad picture for the future at least you have to have some pain to figure out what is next. So if you want to frame one shot from tonight and we're going to make the PDF available later in its entirety, there's what I call the eight Asians. And they're called the Asians because they all end with Asian. That's basically eight big things that are happening that are changing our lives and our jobs. Digitization, everything that can will go digital. Films, television, music, whatever. Disintermediation. People that used to be in the middle are being cut out. The next big thing to be cut out is the banks. It's much harder to cut out banks because you need banks for a lot of things, right? But for example, if you're going to send money to your child or to your son or daughter in the US right now, it will cost you $40 or so to send some money. Well now you can do that with about 10 or 15 apps and it will take four hours and cost you $2. That's this intermediation. Just like we no longer really need record companies. If you want to be a musician, you just go on YouTube, you sign with YouTube or the Spotify Mobilization and screenification, which means everything is becoming a screen. I mean, literally everything. Now we even have digital assistants. You know, Amazon has this box that you put on the table called Echo and it listens to your conversation and has a small screen and you interact with it. I just tried it out the other day, as if it was a person. You say, please play this xyz. What's the weather going to be? Do you love me? Whatever. You can ask all these questions. There's a really interesting one I was going to play for you, this robot called Jibo. You can find it on YouTube. And the founder of Jibo is a scientist. And she says, jibo is not a robot, he's a friend. I mean, that's how far we've gone with digitization. God knows what the next level, I leave that to your imagination. But automation, this is a big thing. Think about your future. Anything that you do that's repetitive, that can be done in, in a logical way, can be replaced by software and is being replaced by software call centers. That's roughly globally about 8.5 million people. All the big call center companies are in the process of automating 90% of the calls. Only the tough calls go to a person. Bookkeepers. I know there's something like 25 million bookkeepers now. The first software companies are appearing who are doing about 85, 90% of the work of a bookkeeper, filing and putting stuff in the right place. Think about the changes there. That's both good and bad because of the work implication. But everything is moving to the cloud. In America, they have a word for this, which I can't really say in public because it's not very elegant, right? So they call it by the cloud, which basically means that as things move in the cloud, your whole business model changes, becomes more competitive, cheaper. The cloud is changing. All of these things you may know about smart farming, for example, the possibility of connecting everything you do on a farm with a network and monitoring it, leading to vast increased efficiency, intelligence, decision making, planning. It has other side effects, of course, but that's what we're seeing here. Anticipation. The software can actually say, next week you're going to need four times as many of these products because of what we've seen from the last four weeks, because you can read all the context. IBM Watson is a big contender here. IBM Watson has a huge amount of activities in this turf. Medical, financial prediction, all these kind of things about how that could work. IBM Watson Medical, for example, scans up to 500 million records of diseases and books that have come out about it while the doctor is using it in the hospital. This would be not humanly possible. So those are the big things. And all of those have to do with ethics. We have to decide where do we want the machine to, so to speak, to stop and to start. How far do we want to go? And it's interesting, you know, when you may know about kids that have a problem with hearing where they can't hear anything, they use a thing called the cochlear implant, which is an implant that's in the ear, bypassing the ear completely and sending electronic signals to the brain directly. And this device has been around for a while. You have to practice for a year, but it works pretty well. About 500,000 people have this implant. Now you can think a step further and say, well, which of us would like a Wikipedia implant? Instant knowledge that we can convey is technically not impossible. How far do we go with this? Those are questions that we have to ask. IBM has a new phrase. You have to check it out on YouTube again. It's actually kind of funny because IBM is a very technology focused company and Ginny Rometti, the CEO held a speech two weeks ago saying that every business now has to become a cognitive business, has to become a business that understands data. And IBM of course is in the cognitive computing business. Now computers that think, that's the idea. I mean this computer in here, Siri, Cortana, all of different, very Google. Now they think the more you say to Siri, the more she knows about you. She analyzes your voice, keeps it in the cloud, compares you if you're drunk or German or both could happen. She knows all these things. So it's a mind boggling change that we're seeing here, great opportunities. And IBM says welcome to the cognitive era. I think this is a good headline, IBM or not. I mean there's many other providers who do the same thing, but this is the idea. For example, in the legal business, any lawyers in the room? Any lawyers? Okay, haven't let you out yet. It's too early for the lawyers to go out there. But so in the legal business you have a thing called legal discovery. When you do a lawsuit, you have to go out and check all the books and look at all the tracking of the history and then you decide if you're going to go forward. That used to take maybe 100 paralegals and three weeks of work. Now IBM Watson does this, a thing called Ross, which is an e discovery engine. It takes 14 minutes to discover what kind of chances you'll have in this lawsuit going through up to 2 billion records and books and court records. Imagine how that will change our world in the future. McKinsey says that roughly what we're looking at Here is a 30 trillion dollar opportunity based on big data, cloud computing, advanced robotics, the Internet of things that has, of course, tremendous possibilities of. One of the big side effects is that will take less people to do the work, right? I mean, that is an obvious side effect. So then we have to talk about what that means. And this is Eric Schmidt from Google. Well, he didn't say this, I just put it on top. Somebody from Google here, I apologize, one of my clients also. But what I think they're doing now is that Google is essentially building a kind of global brain. They are in fact building something that uses cognitive computing to decide for us. You probably are. Some of you are Gmail Google Mail users, right? You know, the hottest thing in Google Mail now is a new thing called Inbox that came out maybe a year ago. The next thing is an artificial intelligence that responds to the email for you, just launched two weeks ago. So you can set certain rules and the software will actually respond to the email for you. Like, you know, simple cases like setting up a meeting. So this is how far we already have gone to the global brain. One really important issue here is security. There are a lot of people saying that roughly 50 if not 60 or 70% of all military spending in the next five years will move towards cyber security, cloud computing, artificial intelligence. This is a thing. Of course, the more connected we are, the more we have to make sure that we're safe. Currently we're not, as we know we're not. There really is no rule, very few rules about privacy in our data. If you're a user of Google, Facebook or Twitter or Baidu or whatever, basically it's free for all at this point. So this is a very big discussion that without privacy, I think eventually that will be a very big issue for us. Again, it's not really visible in those slides right now, but it's one thing to have the whole world connected so that we can do business better and be more efficient and go forward there. It's another thing to be constantly observed. We shouldn't necessarily trade one for the other. In many ways, technology as you know, I think William Gibson said that technology is morally neutral until you apply it. This is a very big challenge because technology can be very powerful and do good things or it can do terrible things. For example, if I let Google handle all of my Email, my calendar, my mobile, my maps. Google knows more about me than my wife. Well, a lot more. There's things you would never say. Now, if you're googling for fungus, nail or whatever bizarre diseases that you may think you have and stuff. I mean, imagine all that history of ten years and all, all of the locations and so what happens with that data? Who gets it? Who has control over this? Well, I can delete it. Yes, I can try. At least hard to find, but it's possible. But is it really gone? Well, the answer is it's not. So there are many issues about this. And this is a great quote from an intel ad campaign, I think from 20 years ago when intel said, well, basically it's a quote from Einstein saying that computers are incredibly fast, accurate and stupid. Well, that's no longer true today, right? They're actually no longer stupid. Human beings are incredibly slow, inaccurate and brilliant, to which I would add today, very expensive. Humans are expensive compared to computers. But the last sentence is the most important. Together they are powerful beyond imagination. Our future is going to be a life with machines based on machines, working with machines and figuring out what we do and what they do and what they should not do. I should not allow my computer, for example, to decide who's going to live or die. Like the army, a lot of army military people want drones that decide who to kill themselves without an operator. Those are all questions we're going to face in the near future. Kevin Kelly said from Wired magazine, is that machines are for answers. Humans are for questions. This is a very interesting future for business. Imagine that for a second you're going to make decisions on CRM or ERP or whatever you're doing with software for your clients. The machines and the software will do a lot of work, but in the end, there's still a lot of questions and intuition and imagination that you will need. But you will definitely be better equipped to answer those questions by using technology. So the option of saying you don't use technology because you just want to ask questions, that is a tough one. We have to synergize. There's a great company in the US called IPsoft, they have called a virtual digital agent. And this agent is essentially a replica of me. And I can use this agent called amelia, also on YouTube, to do things for me, like she can be my executive assistant. And I'm not kidding you, these guys are proposing that we fire our assistants and use software. Software is free, doesn't need vacation, doesn't go on strike, you know, doesn't have get. Doesn't get pregnant or whatever, none of those things, right? So you should watch the movie. They're actually quite serious about this. And there's 50 or so startups that are looking for executive assistance to be robotics. Great quote. That was related for this Albert Hubbard, who said one machine can do the work of 50 ordinary men. He said, men, I put the women in. But no machine can do the work of one extraordinary man. And that is our future in business. You want to make money in the future, you have to be extraordinary. You have to use technology to be extraordinary. But that's not enough because everybody will do that. Everybody will use technology to be extra fast, extra quick, extra cheap, extra good. You have five years to figure this out because right now we're not really efficient, we're not fast. You know, we're in the beginning of this, we have five years to make it efficient. But after that we have to be extraordinary. We have to be a brand, we have to have a purpose, we have to stand for something. And that's what technology is doing to us. Really interesting cover on Time magazine last year. Headline was never offline. Well, there's only one problem with that. Humans need to sleep and contemplate and chew on things and go to the bathroom, right? I mean, think about all these things. This is not possible for us to be online the whole time. We would die very quickly. So finding that balance is going to be important in the future. In fact, now there's a new trend that's coming up in many areas of society is offline is the new luxury. To go offline is when you feel like you've achieved something. Remember 10 years ago you went online, you thought it was great. In five years you'll be saying, well, now this hotel is guaranteeing I cannot go online. And there's the first hotels I work with in Switzerland that are guaranteeing you that you cannot connect. There's no mobile network, no Internet, that cost extra money for those parts of the hotel. Interesting. Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple, right, he talks about privacy. It's basically a human right for privacy. And I agree with that. This is why I like Apple, because they come up with products where you just pay a lot, you pay to be private. You can hate that, but that's their whole proposal. And a great quote from Christian Loos Language, who said technology is a useful servant but a dangerous master. So when you're rolling out technology in your company and to your clients, the don't let it be the master, because what happens then? Is that you become a complete commodity. So you have to figure out how to use technology for the human good, for the flourishing, not for the data of Fukushima. This is a scene from Fukushima, the nuclear power plant. We could very easily have a similar scenario, not with energy, but with data. 600 million health records being published, identity theft, whole networks being shut down by cyber warfare. Data mining with a Y. I mean, many of you in the software business or in tech business, this is a huge trend. Data mining means I have control over the data. There's a company in Switzerland called Black Phone. They sell a private OS and a phone system that only works in encrypted ways. So it's very expensive. You have to pay a flat rate for the calls and all that stuff. But it's basically the same idea. They're sold out for the next couple of years, the phones and the servers. So this idea of people paying for privacy, data mining, that's becoming very important, at least in Europe to a large degree. That's a philosophy question. So I want to wrap this up with 2 comments. And 1 is that I think we need to embrace technology. That is inevitable. I don't think we have the option to reject technology because technology is something that we have invented, after all, and we always have, and we can't really escape it. You can move to the Swiss mountains or the Amish country in America and even there will be difficult. So we have to embrace technology, but we don't want to become technology. If you're in the tech business, your business really isn't technology. Your business is using technology to provide human benefits. So I think that's also in terms of our careers and your kids and going to school, that is ultimately what we need. People who understand technology, but who are not becoming technology. That's another discussion about efficiency now, because every time I go somewhere for digital transformation, like if I speak to logistic companies or airlines, the primary thing that these companies want, I'm sure you understand, is they want to become hyper efficient. So a call center company like Wipro that has 1.3 million employees, if they can fire 80% of their people and use software, hey, that's a great margin improvement. But you know what? That is not the final destination. That's just one of the step in the destination towards what I call customer light. Relationships, engagement, intelligence. Efficiency is only the first step of many. I have a nice animation here, so I'll have to just give it to you like this. But this is a key question you have to ask yourself if you're in business and also of course, for your own life. How will you respond to those exponential changes? Will you happily slap the computer and embrace it like the picture on the right here? Or will you get angry like the guy was in the animation, the chess player getting angry at being defeated by IBM Big Blue? That's a question we have to ask. I think this is primarily an opportunity. I think we're actually extremely lucky that we get to live at the beginning of this period. I always say it's 90% positive and 10% dangerous, but we don't want the 10% to grow to 50%. So this requires regulation, it requires understanding and social contracts and ethical behavior. And you know, look a little bit further than just next quarter. I think if we're careful with this, we have the potential to generate some really powerful business here. For example, the solving of energy employment. There's many people have suggested that if we use technology to save jobs then we should put some of the savings back into education. So for people to learn how to get other jobs. Otherwise we're facing a lot of social unrest. Maybe this is a message to your government, to your new government. So final message is, I think this is very important that we both all start thinking about the future in a different way. We think about today, which in this animation here is basically compared to the energy business today. 90% or 95% of energy is coal and fossil fuel and nuclear. That is our current reality. Just like in banking, less than 1% of mortgages and loans are peer to peer from the users. But the future will be reversed this year. Shell Oil company. For the first time of any major oil company, four weeks ago, Shale oil announced a transition plan from fossil fuel to renewable energy. This is the second biggest oil company in the world announcing that they will make a transition from oil to renewable. So if you want to do that, I think every company needs to do that and think about what is next. You have to think hybrid. You have to think of the current business because that's where the money is. You can't just stop doing it, not at least completely. And then you have to think of the new business. It's a good exercise. You know, you take this picture home and say, what is the old business and my business and what is the electric business? Six years ago we had a workshop with the CEOs of a major German car company. I can't tell you which one, but I just say diesel gate and you would know. And we talked about the future of the car business and we said, well, autonomous car, self driving car, electric car, car sharing. We had laughter in the room, just laughter. That was only six years ago. Today the number one initiative of every car company in the world, electric cars, autonomous cars, assisted driving. So if you can do hybrid thinking, I think then you're looking in the right direction. I just contributed to a really great book called the Future of Business. I wrote only one chapter in it, but it's still a good book. In fact, 62 people have written, 62 futurists have written in this book. It's 600 pages so you can use it for self defense if needed. Of course, not the e book version which is only 500k. But anyway, I recommend you check out this book because a lot of really powerful stuff. If you read this book, I guarantee you you will never sleep again. Thanks very much for your kind attention.