Drum Tower: Taiwan goes to the polls

Hello, it's Alice. You are listening to a free episode of Drumtower. To listen every week, you'll need to be an Economist subscriber. For a free trial, click on the link in the Show Notes or search online for Economist Podcast plus.

The Economist.

2024 will be a big election year. More than 2.7 billion voters in 76 countries will be eligible to choose new leaders.

And first up is one of the most important. January 13th is Taiwan's election.

And although some of the debate is about bread and butter issues, this election goes beyond Taiwan's domestic concerns. And it's also about how the island is going to survive amid threats of war from China and tension between China and America.

And it's no secret who Xi Jinping wants to win.

This week we're asking what is at stake in Taiwan's elections. Is it really a choice between war or peace, as some candidates are saying? This is Drumtar from the Economist. David, hello. Happy New Year.

Happy New Year to you. How are you doing? How's Taiwan in 2024?

I'm good. I had a very short break to go see my family for the holidays. But I'm back and it's election season. It's all very exciting.

It is not election season here in China.

It's never election.

It's never election season here in China. But tell me about how it's going down with you.

Yeah, well, we're getting really close to voting day, January 13, and so voters are going to pick a new president, vice president, and also a new parliament. There have been a lot of rallies going on and the local news is all about all the campaigning. And it's kind of like wherever you go, you see something election related going on in the streets.

I've always loved the fact that there's that line that, oh, Chinese people, culturally, they're not interested in democracy. And Taiwan, which is culturally Chinese, is, in my experience, extremely interested in elections. And some of the wildest campaigning I've covered was in Taiwan, you know, the 2000 election. Remember, following one candidate round and they had one guy whose only job was to light a box of fireworks that he held in his hand, which was pretty terrifying.

Yeah. I have to say I haven't seen any handheld fireworks yet. But I do get the feeling when I go to these rallies that, you know, some of the people there are die hard political supporters for the different parties. But a lot of people seem to just to have fun. Like they dress up, some of them wear just like sparkly clothes or drape themselves in Flags and they have huge balloons and they're blowing these horns and it's kind of like a big party.

And they got a lot of important choices to make, right?

Yeah, that's right, because voters are going to pick the next president, but they're also picking the next parliament.

And of course, Alice, you know, Taiwan elections, they're fantastic to watch, but they're about far more than just the face of this island at 24 million people. I mean, it's almost like two separate overlapping elections happening at the same time. There's one election that's all about war and peace and superpower clashes between China and America and geopolitics. And then there's the one that you see on the streets playing out, which is about schools and hospitals and who's going to make new jobs. So, Alice, what does that actually feel like on the campaign trail?

Well, I've been attending rallies all this week, so I thought I would let you listen. So basically there are three parties competing in this election. I thought we should start with the ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party, or the dpp. And as you remember from last year when we did this four part series about Taiwan, the DPP has been in charge for eight years. They have a majority in the parliament. They also have the current president, Tsai Ing Wen, and they're known for being a very pro independence party. Like they grew out of this activist movement that was all about Taiwan identity and Taiwanese sovereignty. And they're very suspicious of China and they're all about, you know, safeguarding Taiwan's democracy and standing with Taiwan's democratic friends, like America.

Oh, wow, the Jiayou, like add oil. Go for it. Go for it.

Yeah, it's kind of a standard Chinese cheering phrase, but if you listen carefully, there was a lot of chanting about how Taiwan is the world's Taiwan as opposed to China's Taiwan China. And that's kind of a central theme of what the DPP is all about. They're saying, we're going to internationalize Taiwan. We're going to let Taiwan connect with the world without going through China.

And yet against that kind of geopolitical backdrop, you have this really domestic kind of rally vibe.

Yeah, so I went to this rally. It was in Tucheng, which is this southern part of New Taipei, close to Taipei City. And basically there were thousands of plastic stools set out in front of a big campaign stage. It was kind of raining, so, you know, I was impressed that people still came out, but basically all these people were sitting out on the stools. They were waving these green and pink flags. And on the screen there was this kind of like pulsing display where there would be slogans like. Team Taiwan. Team Taiwan. And these huge words would pulse and then everybody would chant the words. They would like wave the flags around. A lot of people were wearing these green kind of athletic looking jackets, which is campaign gear for the DPP this year. And their theme is Team Taiwan. So everybody was dressed up and I was kind of surprised, honestly, because the DPP in the past it's been very popular with young people. But at least at the rally I went to, the majority of people looked like they were 50 plus, hence the plastic stools.

Right. They're not going to stand all night.

Yeah, maybe. Yeah. And it actually seemed quite organized. I noticed that there were people holding up little flags with names of different neighborhoods. And I realized that these were Lijiang. They were kind of elected representatives of certain neighborhoods. And it looked like they had gathered all the people from their neighborhoods and brought them here to sit in specific areas and to, you know, show their support and to wave the flags and.

Do they still have the free food? I remember in 2000 there was a lot of kind of box lunches and cardboard packed lunches just in case people didn't want to stick around.

Oh, I didn't get any box lunches any biandang at the rally I went to. But I think it was because it was at night. I did hear from some other people that they were attending other rallies and getting bentos and enjoying them.

It's a swagtastic election culture Taiwan, I think.

Yeah, that's right. And because the vote is getting really close now, you have all the political all stars attending these campaign events. And so at this rally, we had Tsai Ing Wen, the president, we had William Lai, the vice president who's now running for president. We had SEO Bi Kim, who was Taiwan's representative to America. And now she's running for vice president.

That's really interesting. I mean, that's either impressive or it's actually a sign that they're a bit in trouble. If you have to wheel out every single senior person for Tuchung, like a suburb of the capital city.

Yeah. And it's interesting too, like when you listen to the things they say on stage. Right. Like I've watched a lot of Tsai Ing Wen's speeches, typically like her New Year's address or kind of more outward facing speeches. But here when she's at a rally with, you know, the local voters, she's talking about really Hyper local things that the DPP has done. Like, she would say something like, Taiwan needs to protect its democracy. We connect with the world, not through China. And then her next line will be, and also, we have built so many parking lots in your neighborhood, and we've installed air conditioners in all of the classrooms. We have given this much in subsidies to parents of newborn children. And she's listing out very, very local issues that voters care about.

Yeah. Even from the outside, it's been really interesting to see how Tsai Ing Wen's image has evolved over her eight years as president. I mean, I'm old enough to remember because I was alive in 2011 when the Obama administration in America was kind of briefing openly that they didn't trust her, that she might be a hothead who's going to provoke China. And now in Washington, she's adored. Right. She's this kind of cautious moderate who's avoided provoking China, who Washington is really, really happy about. They're worried about who will replace her. Could they possibly be as safe as she is? So it's been quite the journey for her.

Yeah. Tsai Ing Wen has walked this very careful line where she's been able to assert Taiwan's democratic values, its sovereignty. She does use that word, but she doesn't say Taiwan needs to be independent. Actually, the way she says it is Taiwan is already independent, so there's no need to rock the boat by declaring independence again. And Tsai Ing Wen, the president was on stage talking about how Taiwan is determined to protect itself and to protect its values of freedom and democracy. And she said, because we're doing this, the world's democratic countries are going to stand with us and protect Taiwan together. And then you can hear her kind of doing her school teacher thing, and she's like, is that right? And everyone says, right.

Yeah. She might want to have a word with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Ukraine about how the democratic countries of the world are willing to stick with you when you're under attack.

Right, Yeah. I think that's the tricky part of her message, honestly.

It's a rough old world. And so the man replacing her, her current vice president, William Lai Lai Chengde, he's very different from moderate, cautious trade lawyer by background. Tsai Ing Wen. Right.

Well, yeah. Lai Jingde is seen as more of a deep DPP person. And the dpp, this party that they are both in, that Lai Jingde is now leading, it's known for having been in the past, a lot more radical and a lot stronger on asserting Taiwan independence and light. Jing Te himself once called himself a pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence. But nowadays, especially in this campaign, he's been emphasizing that he's going to be like, Taiyin won 2.0. So he's trying very hard to reassure voters and I think reassure America that he's not going to make any sudden moves. And I think the choice of vice president for the DPP is also meant to reinforce that because they've chosen she Kim, who has been Taiwan's rep to Washington since 2020. And, you know, she has a lot of credibility in the US and of.

Course, sitting here in China, it could not be more different how they see that for the Chinese Communist Party like Ching Te, they absolutely distrust and hate him. And his vice president candidate Xiao Bi Kim, they see her as basically an American. She's in fact, half American. Of course, the background to all of this, as we talked about in our series on Taiwan, is for the Chinese Communist Party, if Taiwan ever declared itself an independent country, then they reserve the right to use force to forcefully bring Taiwan back as part of China.

Yeah. And I think this is the most difficult part of the DPP's message. China is trying to destabilize and isolate Taiwan as long as Taiwan's voters have a leader who rejects being part of China. And that's very hard to overcome. So I was in this rally talking to voters, and I asked some of them what they thought about that. And this one voter, her name is Cody Chen, she's 30 years old, she has short hair. She lives very close to where the rally is, and this is what she said. So Cody made this comparison to this cartoon, Doraemon. Do you know that cartoon?

Is that the blue. That's like the blue fluffy thing?

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. She was saying in this cartoon, like, there's one bully character and there's a victim character. And she's saying, basically, you know, if you're facing a bully, if you have, like, a bad neighbor, even if you're not resisting the bully, he's still going to bully you. It's like when you're a kid, if you don't resist, they're just going to keep treating you badly. And so to her, she says, no matter who gets elected, war is a possibility. But at least if we pick the dpp, she thinks the DPP is more willing to seriously resist China.

It's fascinating hearing how China's threats have kind of taught a whole generation of Taiwanese that China is just this big bully. Right?

Yeah, that's right. And you know, Kody told me, like she and her friends, they're kind of preparing for the possibility of war no matter what, no matter who wins. And she also told me that she thinks if they elect the dpp, they have a higher chance of ensuring that America and Japan and other friendly countries will come to Taiwan's aid if there is really an invasion one day. And she thinks if they pick other parties that are more friendly towards China that are taking more of an appeasement route, then maybe nobody will help them because the Americans will say, well, that's what the Taiwanese people chose. So that's why she thinks it really matters to vote DPP this time.

She's not wholly wrong. Right. If the Taiwanese people don't seem that fussed about their own sovereignty and who rules them, America is not going to care more than Taiwan which flag flies over the Presidential palace in Taipei. So she's not wrong about the need to show resistance.

Yeah. And so in some ways I do think the DPP and its supporters are very clear eyed about that, about the threat from China and the need to show that you're willing to resist. But at the same time there's another part of their message that's a little bit worrying. And it's kind of like we just need to resist. We're going to be on Team Democracy and then the world and America are going to stand with us. Like, don't worry, they're definitely going to be there. But the question is, are they really? And I think a lot of voters are not so sure about that.

Did you hear that at the rally?

Yeah, I did actually. At one point our researcher Constance and I were searching for younger people to interview because it was mostly older folks. And we finally found these two younger looking guys sitting on those plastic stools. And I went to interview them, but it turned out that neither of them were actually DPP supporters. One of them said he was actually just here to observe the elections. His name is William Su, he's 27 years old. He said if you look at the last eight years, like look at how many warplanes China has sent to fly around Taiwan. It's all in the news and we think that we just need to work on cross straits peace. So I'm not going to support the dpp.

It's so interesting, isn't it, how from the outside, because we're trying to make sense of this really complicated political system that you're covering that we try and is people pro China, are people anti China, but actually that guy you've just been describing, it seems to me that like so many Taiwan voters, what he really wants is just to be left alone. Right? They want to keep the status quo, but actually what China wants, where I am, is let's change the status quo by just making Taiwan part of China and give them Communist Party overlords. And so you realize this is why it's so hard to kind of understand Taiwan from the outside. That actually we want everyone in kneecaps, pro, anti China. But that isn't really what people want, is it? They want something that actually is kind of slightly impossible, which is to be left alone by China forever.

Yeah, they want to be left alone, but also they want to be part of the world. They want to be able to join regional trade agreements. They want to be able to just kind of live their lives like Koreans do, like Japanese people do. Like, you know, they just want to live like normal people, which is what they have been doing for a long time.

So, Alice, you and I have been to a lot of election rallies in a lot of countries over the years. I have to say, you were there. I was not. But even from the sound that you're playing, you know that phrase in America, the big mo, the big momentum, that does not sound like a party. You know, we've got very few young voters there. They've had to bring out all the all stars. They got the kind of the light show getting everyone excited. Is the ruling party in trouble? They're ahead in the polls, but not by a huge amount. What was the kind of the mood, do you think?

I have to say, and this is something I've heard from the DPP campaign planners, that they are very worried in this election because, you know, they're selling continuity, but they're selling continued tension. Like, they're like, okay, we're going to continue as we are. But yes, it is very tense. Yes, we are under threat. Like, don't worry, just believe in us. And we will keep standing up to those threats. And it's likely that if they win, there will be more threats and more tension. So it's not an exciting message. It's not a change and hope message. I have to say. Yeah, it's not something that has really brought a lot of people out into the streets.

And that's exactly what China intended to do. Right. I mean, the whole plan has always been to teach Taiwanese voters that if they vote for the party China hates, the pro independence party that's currently in power, that life will be miserable, that things will Be tense, that things will be scary. And that's the idea, to hope that people get sick of that and go back to the old establishment party that doesn't like independence, the kmt, the Nationalists, the opposition.

Yeah, and actually the very next night after that DPP rally, I went to the KMT rally, the Kuomintang nationalist rally. And I have to say it was a lot more energetic. You can hear the guy on stage, he's saying, give me a president. And the crowd is saying Ho Yo Yi, which is the name of the presidential candidate. He's basically chanting that over and over again.

Now. It's been, you know, quarter of a century since the first completely free presidential elections that I watched in 2000. And that's a long way from their origins. Right. As the series on Taiwan explored, the KMT came from mainland China after losing the civil war in the 1940s as a pretty brutal military dictatorship determined to crush democracy. But now they are getting good at playing the multi party politics game, it sounds like.

Yeah, that's right. But also, as we discuss in our series, the KMT does have a problem because historically they're all about Chinese nationalism. And that's something that doesn't resonate actually with the majority of Taiwanese people anymore, especially young people who tend to think of themselves as Taiwanese and not Chinese.

So their core vote is essentially one of nostalgia and longing. Was it a pretty old rally? I mean, what's the plastic stool count at a KMT rally compared to where you were with the ruling party?

It was probably about the same. It was quite similar. It was huge stage, thousands of plastic stools. They had better lighting, they had these big search lights moving around everywhere. And the thing that really struck me when I went to the KMT rally was just realizing everyone there was in red, white and blue, which is the colors of Taiwan's national flag. But then once I was there, I realized there had been none of those flags at the DVP rally the day before. Because, you know, this flag, it's a symbol of Taiwan, but it's also the symbol of this Republic of China that used to include mainland China.

That's the flag that's a lot more than 100 years old that flew over the kind of warships of the losers from the civil war as they crossed into exile.

Yeah, it was also an older crowd, but there were more families there. And again I saw all the kind of political all stars, but this time from the other side. So you had Ma Ying Jeou, who was the former KMT president before Tsai Ing Wen. And they were all there on stage, all hyping everybody up and talking about how the DPP is really corrupt and it's going to destroy the Republic of China.

It's got that rules for the populist edge, hasn't it?

Yeah, that's right. This is actually Han Guo Yu. He's the guy who ran for president last time, and he's very good at working the crowd. And he's saying, like, the dpp, you've eaten enough, You've taken enough money. And he tells the audience, I'll say dpp. And then you say, are you full? Like, have you eaten enough? And he leads this chant. And he was there to hype up the KMT's presidential candidate, Hou Yeou, who is a former head of the police and former mayor of New Taipei. And Hanguoru was saying, you know, oh, the DPP is saying Hoyoi is going to sell Taiwan because, you know, the ruling party keeps saying the KMT is too close to China. It's going to sell out Taiwan. But that's impossible. Like, that's so ridiculous. Hoyo Yi. Hoyo Yi is a local guy. He's very Taiwanese. How could you say he's going to sell out Taiwan? And it's important that he was making this point because the KMT chose this candidate as somebody who's a little bit different from classic KMT types. Like, he's somebody who has more of a local background. And it's because they know that they need to appeal to different types of voters, voters with a more Taiwanese identity, and that's why they've chosen him.

And did it work? Did you see a more representative kind of crowd?

Not necessarily. I didn't really see many of those younger people, like pro Taiwanese identity people that maybe the KMT was trying to appeal to. But I did talk to a lot of voters who maybe we're more of the classic KMT supporter.

Well, I don't provoke the Chinese. We're all Chinese blood brothers.

Yeah, yeah. Kind of like, you know, what's the big deal about China? Why is China such a threat? You know, there's this one woman I spoke with. Her name is Ms. Wang. She's in her 60s. She used to work in manufacturing of eyeglasses. And, you know, she was telling me like, she's, she's fed up with the dpp. She thinks, like, they're just always smearing China as, you know, for political purposes. And she said, but in reality, what's the big deal? How did China treat Us badly. How did the mainland treat us badly? They buy so much stuff from us. And she said, for us, for Lao Baixing, for just ordinary people, we just care about having enough money and living good lives. We don't care about these slogans. And then she also mentioned, you know, actually a lot of us in Taiwan, our ancestral homes are from mainland China. Like we're all from there, so why can't we just live together peacefully? Why do we have to provoke them?

And younger voters? Did you see any of those?

Yeah, I did. So it's interesting, I met another guy, his name is Mr. Yan, he's 40 years old. And he told me like, he actually used to be pro dpp. And he said, you know, back then I was young, I was hot headed and I was is like, yeah, whatever, Taiwan independence. If China wants to fight us, just come and fight. But he's like, he basically says he grew out of that and now he sees that politics is just about interests and both parties are corrupt, but he would rather vote for a party that's less provocative toward China. And he actually told me, you know, he said, I think if Lighting Te gets elected, it's possible that China might really attack us. Look at China's economy right now, you know, it's not doing well. And if Putin was willing to make a move, how do we know Xi Jinping's not going to make a move? And actually I found him really interesting because he was very, very realistic. He didn't have these illusions about, like, oh, there's no threat, China is our motherland. He was worried about actual attack. And then he said, Basically, we have to have dialogue. Like we don't have any bargaining chips because we're so small. We don't have the firepower or the troops to fight with China. And so we should just go talk to them and say things to drag out the time and to buy time for ourselves. And whatever we want to say, like, it's fine, but let's not be too ideological because they're going to get mad. We don't want to make China lose face. We want to make them feel good and give us more time.

That's very interesting because of course, that sense of despair and fatalism, that's what mainland China wants to hear, but not that bit about playing for time because China wants this to end quickly. Xi Jinping has said he doesn't want this Taiwan problem, Taiwan being separate, to be handed down from generation to generation. And then, Alice, there's a third party, right? The Taiwan people's Party. Did you go to rally of theirs? What are they running on?

Yeah, so it's interesting, this new third party, it's called the Taiwan People's Party and it's led by Ko Wenzhe, he's their presidential candidate and he was the mayor of Taipei. And his whole campaign is about, let's just stop bickering about this question of, you know, Chinese or Taiwanese unification or independence. Like we've been talking about it for decades and you know, nothing ever happens and nobody is solving our domestic issues like housing crisis, you know, low wages. And actually that campaign has been really popular among Taiwan's young people. They've. They've been getting more than 20% support in the polls this whole time.

He's really interesting, isn't he? Because his style is kind of populist brainbox. Is that fair? You know, he's this kind of high powered surgeon, but he's almost kind of nerdy. But he's got this idea that I'm the clever guy that's worked out how these dummies are going. You know, they've been messing everything up and now you just need a clever surgeon like me. He's an outsider to come and be smart about stuff. That's his kind of pitch, right?

Yeah, exactly, exactly. He's always like, let's be rational, let's be scientific, let's be pragmatic, implying that the others are not. The others are just corrupt politicians who are stuck in their own ideologies. And he's the one who can solve problems.

And he's taking a chunk of the vote, isn't he?

Yeah, I mean, in the polls they've been getting more than 20% support. And both of the old parties are really worried about the TPP because they just make the race that much tighter because now it's really a three way race and no one is so comfortable about whether they can win or not.

And how's he campaigning? Is he good at the kind of dragon dances and fireworks and plastic stools side of Taiwan politics?

Well, his supporters are really excited, so I guess he's successful. I went to this campaign event a few days ago where Ko Wenzhou was in Taoyuan City where the airport is. He was, you know, kind of on top of a car, like waving at people in the streets. And I went to this place where he was going to stop and sign autographs and a lot of his supporters were there and he calls them Xiao Cao, like little grass, because, you know, you're small bits of grass but you're willing to come out and show your support. And so lots of people were wearing these little clips with leaves on their heads and on their backpacks. And Ko Wenzhou was like waving from the car and saying, like, thank you, you've worked so hard. Thank you, everybody. And the fans are really enthusiastic. They feel like this is a grassroots campaign. It's really breaking out. It's different from the other parties.

Wow. You know, he's got a domestic message. You know, he was a mayor of the capital city, but he's got this international message that he can, you know, be smart and centrist and navigate between America and China. But when you talk to the voters out there that were kind of cheering him, what was their focus?

Well, actually, the voters that were there cheering him, they were really aligned with what Cohen just says. I met this young supporter who was standing there. He had made a sign in advance. His name was Zach Song. He's 24 years old. He works in installing air conditioners. And he told me, you know, growing up, the elders around him were always talking about the DPP or the kmt. And yet, like, amid all this talk, he doesn't feel like daily life in Taiwan was getting better. And he says the government brings out these numbers about how we're growing, our economy is growing. But I feel like I used to eat great meals for much less. I have to spend much more money now. There's inflation, we can't afford houses. And he says if you go to places like Hong Kong or Singapore, their salaries are so much higher than ours. And young people in Taiwan keep leaving the country because they feel like there isn't a way for them to grow and to have successful futures.

And how about his pitch that he's the smart guy who can solve this cross straits tensions? Because actually, I've heard that China actually pretty much likes Ko Wenje, that they knew him when he was mayor of Taipei. He used to go to this Shanghai, Taipei City to city forum thing that was all about closer ties. And he said stuff that is kind of right out of the Communist Party's playbook of favorite things. Two sides of the straits of one family. So that doesn't sound like he's in the middle. That sounds like he's way over to the China side. How does that work on the ground?

Well, that's actually something that his supporters like as well. You know, I was talking to another Ko Wenje voter named Isaac Chen, who's in his 40s. He told me, you know, his wife is a soldier. So he said, you know, in the last year, she had to stay on her base for a lot of training. And I'm really worried about it and I hope that Koenje can find a new path forward. And I think his voters, when I ask them about cross rates relations, they say like, well, we're worried because the DPP is too provocative, it's dangerous. But the kmt, we don't trust them. Like they're so pro China. Coon Zhe he's being pragmatic. He has no clear policy formula, but he just says things like two sides are one family and it's what China wants to hear and so he can lower tensions. But they also have faith in him. They believe that he's not going to compromise Taiwan's democracy. So basically for them it's all about pragmatism and they think that coinjia can deliver on that.

That's so kind of interesting to listen to from here in China because it sounds as if everyone just wants to hang on to what they can keep but not head too much closer to Beijing.

Yeah, I mean, as we said in the series, Taiwan is a very divided place. There's lots of disagreements over identity, over values. But I think the one thing that pretty much everyone agrees on, almost everyone, is people in Taiwan want to keep the status quo. They want to keep living their lives the way they're living them in a democracy. And they don't want radical moves that might invite a war. And so in this election, every voter is just searching for that, like, what is the best way to continue as we are and to stay safe. I think that's everyone's top priority.

So, Alice, you have taken us to these three campaign events, you've shown us what the election is like on the ground, and now I'm going to put you on the spot. It's a three way race. The polls are unbelievably tight. It's impossible to analyze who's ahead, who's going to win, what's going on, how's this going to play out?

Well, I can't make a prediction, but we actually at the Economist have been running this election poll tracker. It's like a poll polls where we aggregate different polls since some of them tend to lean one way or the other politically. And based on our own tracker, Lai Ching Te, the DPP is ahead and has been ahead pretty much the whole time, but only by a very small margin of a few points and hovering just under 40%. And the KMT is close behind with about a third of the votes. And the TPP is behind them, a few more points behind them. So it's very much a three way race and we can't say with confidence what's going to happen. But we can discuss how China is looking at this and what might happen depending on who wins, how China's going to react.

Elegantly punted. So, and of course it really annoys a lot of people in Taiwan when we say, but let's talk about war and peace, let's talk about what this means for China and America. But the truth is, of course it matters, right? I mean, there might one day. It's not inconceivable that there could be a war one day over Taiwan. So of course that is the thing that the world is very focused on in this election.

So, David, I mean, we all know Xi Jinping's preferences, which is not the dpp, the ruling party that's leaning towards independence.

Of course, they refused to speak to them on the basis that they won't admit that Taiwan is part of China. They spent eight years basically sending Tsai Ing Wen to Coventry. And we had a pretty combative press conference here in Beijing from the Taiwan Affairs Office just a couple of days after Christmas.

Wow. So that's the Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman and I think he reads the Economist.

Because he says, yeah, my ears were burning.

Because he says a lot of international media are saying Taiwan is, quote, the most dangerous place on earth. Which is, you know, of course referring to this cover story we had a few years ago, which everyone in Taiwan talks about too, anyway, and he says the media are saying cross straits relations is at its most dangerous moment. Lai Jingde is the head of the DPP and he's a self proclaimed worker for Taiwan independence. And he's claiming that electing him comes with the lowest amount of risk. And he says, do you believe that? Does the Taiwan public believe that? I think even Lai himself doesn't believe it.

Actually, that line about he probably doesn't even believe it himself. That's pretty witty for a Communist Party spokesman.

Yeah, it is. And of course what he doesn't mention is why is cross strait relations at its most dangerous moment? Who is the aggressor? Who is the one sending many warplanes to fly around the Taiwan Strait? I mean, it's China. That being said, I think China's leaders have been working overtime to make it clear that if Taiwan's voters pick the DPP again, there will be consequences. In December, they announced that some of the favorable trade policies for Taiwanese imports were going to be canceled. And they have hinted that if the DPP is elected again, maybe there will be more measures taken on trade.

And of course, China funds and influences quite a lot of big media outlets in Taiwan. So they have the tools to meddle.

So, I mean, David, what do you think is going to happen if the DPP wins? I think we can say with confidence that China is going to take economically coercive measures. But what about the military side? Let's talk about the scenarios.

There's a sense actually Chinese and American scholars and in some cases former officials, they're very clear that China has to do something that if certainly the party that China dislikes, the pro independence Taiwan ruling party, if they win for a third time the presidency, then China can't just sit back, that somehow Chinese public opinion expects something tough. So the Chinese People's Liberation army will have to do new things. Maybe they'll search a ship on its way to Taiwan. Maybe they will fly a drone right over the island where previously they've only ever sort of fired a missile over the island. Everyone remembers summer 2022 when these unprecedented military exercises were China's response to a visit by the then speaker of the American House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi. And there's this shorthand, will China do Pelosi plus, which sounds pretty scary, or Pelosi Minus, which sounds a bit more reassuring.

And it seems clear like it's not going to be an all out invasion. I think it's way too much to expect that. But it's going to be a time of heightened risk. Whether it's Pelosi plus or Pelosi Minus, there's going to be some kind of military activity and that raises the potential for accidental clashes. I think it's going to be a time when everyone is on edge, Americans, Taiwanese, Chinese and others in the region.

That's right. And actually a fascinating reason why I think you don't need to kind of put a tin helmet on or even just run for the airport is that there's going to be another election in November in America. And actually China doesn't have a strong incentive to cause an all out crisis over Taiwan until it knows who the next American president is going to be. Because if it's Donald Trump, there are versions of Donald Trump that are pretty transactional and he doesn't love Taiwan. So maybe it's going to be easier to deal with America if Trump is back in the White House. So why have a kind of big fuss now right now with Joe Biden in the White House? I know that some Americans who've been talking at high levels to the Chinese, they're actually worried that China has unrealistic expectations that the Americans are going to play the same role that they played 20 years ago or 15 years ago when America's role was to kind of slap the pro independence camp down in Taiwan and order them publicly not to provoke China. And there's a sense in some of the Americans I've been talking to that the Chinese side doesn't really understand how American politics has changed and that if the pro independence candidate Lai Ching Te wins and if China goes kind of berserk and really threatens him, then this time around America's going to have to back him up. Because politics has changed in Washington D.C. yeah.

And also the nature of the US China relationship has changed. Right? I mean, 20 years ago these two superpowers were not engaged in all out competition. David, what about if the KMT wins? If we get the Nationalist Party in charge, that's all about reopening dialogue, lowering tensions. What do you think we can expect?

So actually one of the ironies is that ultimately the Chinese side could be quite disappointed. Right, Because Taiwan has also changed. It's not just America that's changed. And actually if the KMT wins this time, they're not going to be able to make the kind of concessions that we saw them making 10 years ago. One of the things I really love about talking to Chinese scholars about the KMT is they're kind of really disdainful. It's like familiarity breeds contempt. And that the Communist Party of China and the KMT, they've known each other for more than 100 years now and they've been enemies at war. And now they're kind of uneasily partners in agreeing that Taiwan shouldn't become independent. But I had this wonderful line that when KMT bigwigs come to China and say, you're making our life really difficult, you keep being so aggressive in places like Hong Kong and that makes it really hard for us to win elections in Taiwan. The Communist Party, I'm told, just goes, these guys are just whiners who are bad at politics. This is real disdain.

Or they're like, oh, you're unpopular, why don't you just crack down?

Why don't you try being better at politics?

That also just adds to this thought I keep having about the kmt, which is they're promising voters, let us have dialogue. And when we have dialogue, we can bring peace. We have leverage, we can get China to listen to us. The Communist Party talks to us. But in reality, I don't think they have much leverage. And it's basically they'll go and they'll say things like, oh, let's go back to 92 consensus. This thing we used before where we said one China, but we interpret it differently, and they're kind of at Xi Jinping's mercy. They don't have anything that they can use to stop the Communist Party from demanding more and demanding more progress towards unification and towards one country, two systems, which Xi Jinping is very clear, like that's what he wants, or maybe asking for other things. Like Taiwan right now is doing a lot of military cooperation with America. And you can imagine that Beijing would say something like, you want to lower tensions, you want to be allowed into regional trade agreements. Why don't you get rid of those American trainers on Taiwan, buy less weapons? And those are things that the KMT cannot easily deliver on. And there are also things that would bring out resistance from Taiwanese society. So I have to say it could be quite bumpy with the KMT in charge as well.

I think one final thing we should not forget to mention is that we could see a split result. Right. And actually you could imagine a narrow, narrow win for the current ruling party where they take the presidency. But actually the KMT does pretty well in parliamentary elections. And actually under Taiwan's system, that could mean quite a lot of deadlock. Right. Because the parliament's very, very powerful. So it's an unbelievably complicated election.

Yeah. And, you know, I think it's quite likely we would have a DPP president who, you know, wants to keep standing up for Taiwanese sovereignty, connect with the world and so on. But then we would have a legislature led by the opposition, which is all about being more pragmatic and maybe moving towards more integration with China. And then you could just see a lot of gridlock.

And from China's perspective, you know, it's not the worst outcome, gridlock in Taiwan, because it's not Taiwan drifting away and saying, let's go independent, but it's not the best outcome. It's not Taiwan saying, you know what, actually, we have a good future under rule from Beijing. So once again, it's a question about how much patience does China's ruler Xi Jinping have.

So, David, let's go back to the question we asked at the top. Is this election really a choice between war and peace? Because that's what the KMT has been saying, the opposition Nationalist Party and also the Communist Party, this idea that you Taiwanese voters You're choosing either peace by being closer to China or war if you assert your preference for independence. But I think the core question of this election is actually what is the best way to protect Taiwan? Is it through deterrence and resistance? And, you know, this idea the DPP has about, you know, the only way to be safe from a bully is to stand up to him and show that you will fight if he comes. Or is it about, actually, let's get real, let's see how the world really is. We don't really know if our friends are going to back us up, and we are much smaller than the bullies. So we need to appease. We need to say nice things that China wants to hear, and that's the best way to keep Taiwan safe.

And that is why it's not just Asian neighbors, but the whole world will be watching this election in this country where you are, because it's part of a big pattern, right? It's the start of this year of elections, this year of all dangers. And it's. You can't really separate it from the fate of places like Ukraine up against a Russian bully, from America's internal struggles. There's a sense that the whole world order is very, very shaky right now. And it begins with this test of this little democracy that has made a big bet on America coming to its aid. And that's a risky bet in 2024. It's a lot of responsibility that we all put on voters in Taiwan, right? I mean, it's the same size as Australia, but we don't go to Australian voters every time they go to the ballot and say, you know, war and peace, the fate of the world hangs on your shoulders. Do Taiwanese voters kind of feel this pressure?

When I'm at those rallies, talking to people, I asked a lot of them, you know, what do you think about these narratives? Like, it's going to be war or peace, it's going to be democracy or autocracy. And on the one hand, a lot of them say these are just election slogans. Those are politicians being dramatic and, you know, whatever. They're just saying this to win votes. On the other hand, I think for the first time in this election, I do also hear a lot of people say, we are worried. And we know that actually there is a risk of something seriously bad happening to Taiwan. And so they're taking it very seriously. And some of them, their spouses, their children who are in the military, that's one small island. And it's your future. It's whether you're going to survive. So not every voter may be thinking in such dramatic terms, but certainly every voter is aware that Taiwan's future is at stake, and in some ways it is in the voter's own hands.

Thank you for listening to Drumta and hello to the Smith family, Ronan, Simon, Jason, and all of you who loved our first Film Club episode. Please keep sending us your thoughts@drumconomist.com and.

If you're interested in hearing more about Taiwan, we made a four part series at the end of last year. You'll find a link to those episodes in the show.

Notes Our editor is Poppy Seabag. Montefiore J. Ha Chen and Alize Jean Baptiste produced this episode. Sound design is by Weidong Lin. Drum Tire's music was composed by Jocelyn Tan. The executive producer is Marguerite Howe.