EBIT Riga 2020 Keynote by Futurist Gerd Leonhard Understanding the Future Sept 16, 2020

Hello Riga, this is Gerd Leonhard Futurist today with a presentation on the future. And these days the future is uncertain. It's not about predictions. My work is about observations. And I'm going to share some observations with you today and I certainly hope that they will be helpful for you to design your own future. First, I think we need to think about what question we really should be asking about the future, not what, what will the future bring? I mean, that question is the future can bring anything. It kind of makes us inactive and disempowered. We can't do anything about what the future is bringing. Nothing is further from the truth. What do we want from this future? That is the key question. And why do we want it? And who is in charge? What kind of future do we want our children to have? Not the future that we can have. We can have any future in 10 years. I can upload my brain to the Internet. Some people would say, what future do we want? This is the key question that we have to ask. What do we have to do to reach that future, to build it? Climate change is a great example. If we want a future that is collectively good and not self destructive and forcing us to move to other planets, then we have to do something about it now. We have to create the future that we want. Sometimes a little bit like I talk to many people about this and it feels a little bit like we're like a turtle that's stuck on the back and nobody's helping it to flip over, helpless. But I don't think that's true. I think that's a feeling that many people have that I have sometimes. But the future today is really a mindset. The mindset is we're going to pick up and we're going to redo our future in the way that we want it and we're going to start understanding what that future could be. And we're going to look at the trends around us and we're going to have foresights and observations. We're going to stop looking in the rearview mirror, we're going to look in the other mirror, the mirror pointing towards the future. We're going to build a future mindset. And this is something that of course, Americans have done for a long time, always thinking about the next thing and we'll think about what is today. But the sign of intelligence is Scott Fitzgerald said to have two opposing things in your mind at the same time, do the present and do it well, but also try to understand what isn't already here. At the same time, and also what I call do the future. I mean, clearly in this world where we're all completely connected and constantly connecting to each other, this uncertainty factor is huge. I mean, the uncertainty index is through the roof these days. And how can we be more certain about what we want and who we are? This is clearly going to be something that is quite a struggle for us. I think looking at the facts here, Joe Biden has said many times in the last week or so that we're kind of looking at a K shaped recovery. Some people will recover just fine. That's the upper part of the kitchen and that's the top 1%, especially of course, in technology. And the stock market is booming, or was until last week. And the lower K, the lower half, the K is declining. So everybody else is declining. And there's something fundamentally wrong with this if we have a recovery that benefits only the ones that have the means. And again, it's a question of social justice, inequality. But the Washington Post has a great slide here just from the other month to see how that has already developed in the US we don't want that to become the default in Europe or anywhere else, regardless of what this kind of new normal will bring. And this has been a theme all over the place. I've talked a lot about the new normal, but is there any such thing? I don't think so. We're not going back to the old normal, that is for sure. And the new normal is uncertain. So we have to build something and which is a new normal. A new normal. New normal. A new normal. A new normal. New normal. Embrace the new normal. The new normal. The new normal. The new normal. New normal. Well, I think I could go on for another half an hour with the new normal, but here's some examples. CN has a great gallery of what is normal now. This is how we eat now. And this is how we eat now. I mean, this, this is a really great shot. I love this one a lot. And this is how we do yoga. And this is how we watch movies now. And this is how we hug in a safe distance. This is how we treat people in the elevator. And this is how people are graduating these days and how we work from home. And this is what we do to talk to each other. And isolation, distance. I think that needs to change. We need to figure out what exactly we can do about this and how to stay closed using technology and many other means. I think personal connection will always be most important for humans. Human brain is about engagement, relationships, experiences. It's not so much about data and exchanging information. So that is a significant challenge. For example, to work from home. Now even the homeless are distancing from each other. Well, not voluntarily, I'm quite sure. But even in this future, there is three waves coming, right? The first one, we're in the middle of this. COVID 19. The second one is the climate change wave. We were in that already before COVID 19 and the third one is the changing economic logic. The economic logic has to change because it wasn't capable of helping us in this crisis. It was indicated years ago, Bill Gates and others indicated, Larry Berlin and others a decade ago that we're going to see a pandemic and nothing was done about it. Are we going to have an economic logic that protects us? Are we going to have a new way of thinking about what's called sustainable capitalism? Whether it's about climate change, whether it's about education, whether it's about distributing resources and tech regulation? I mean, clearly we're in the age of pivoting. All around us people are saying, well, this doesn't work anymore, so what do I do now? I mean, that's what I'm doing every day, thinking about, okay, no more stage, but I'm transforming. I call this the great transformation. And you can see that here in this animation where the things that used to be on top, they're now falling to the bottom on top. Now we have, of course, health care, we have the state, we have green energy, we have technology, we have everything to do with collaboration and everything else like banking and traveling and cruise ships have fallen down to the bottom. I mean, there are some industries that are deeply in trouble with this. Of course, tourism and airlines would be there, the first couple ones to think about and other ones that are exploding. This is why technology stocks have been rallying at least until last week. So basically, four things that we have to keep a watch on while we're pivoting. Like this. First, inequality. We have to solve this. We have to solve an economic system that does not spread the benefits enough. We have to think about the new form of capitalism and we have to really get on with climate change and global warming and the climate emergency. And there's going to be some dramatic measures, including carbon taxes and many others. This is going to take considerable effort, but it will also create, in my view, tens of millions of new jobs. The green energy, the Green New Deal. If we put the money in the right place and away from the wrong places, then I think we can dedicate some new funds and create new work here, new jobs and also new research and so on. And that should be a good future, I think, for all of us. It's safe to say, I think that business as usual is dead or dying. The way that we used to do things is, yeah, if you're lucky, it still works a little bit. But even before the COVID crisis, that wasn't true. As technology exponentially changes the landscape, we have to think about the new things that are going to work in the future. While we're doing the old things, everything is moving in windows. So as we're looking at this curve, the exponential curve, you've seen that many times before, it is exploding. It's basically showing us how we are leaping using technology, how we're in a situation where it's no longer linear, going stepwise, but but where it's going literally leaping. 4, 8, 16. And we're 4, just now. 4, 8, 16, 32, mind boggling curve. 30 times up the curve. 1 billion our kids in 40 years, 1 billion times as different. At least in many sectors. Not in all sectors, of course. Right. So the winners of this exponential big tech, and I think that's going to continue despite of what may be happening in the stock market this week. But that's a rally, that's clearly a bull market. Big health, there's going to be trillions of dollars, euros put into health care, into biotechnology. That's clearly a great place to invest, also a place that requires lots of public funding. Big state, many issues about this. But here in Switzerland, where I live, you know, we trust the state and so we are okay with the state taken over in so many ways telling us what to do. But this is certainly a touch point that we have to observe also in terms of surveillance and populist societies and so on. And of course the biggest one is what I call big green again, I think, amazing opportunity for new jobs, for new research, has to be funded, has to be funded collaterally and collectively across Europe. And I think we're going to see that come true very soon. So when we talk about big tech, here's a recent video that you may have seen from Elon Musk announcing his neuralink, which is a connection, a physical connection, brain connection. So that means electrodes inserted into your brain, or in this case the pig's brain. I'll show you shortly. To be able to address flaws like if you're paralyzed or if you can't control your limbs or if you can't walk or of course many, many other things, including the potential upgrading of humans. Check out this video. The beeps you're hearing are real time signals from the neuralink. Pretty mind boggling stuff. I mean, I am not so sure I'm getting as excited as Elon about this in terms of expanding this to humans. I think it's quite a conjecture to think of it as being ready for humans, but this is clearly a point where we have to say, well that's interesting, but where is this going? I think it could be a gift for us or the gift could turn into a bomb when we use it. Too much. Too much of a good thing can be a very bad thing. And that is so true about drugs and food and everything else. But. But it's also true about technology. We must be very careful about how far we go with technology because it can be very addictive. Think of virtual reality, think of black mirror that you may have seen. So at some point we have to question this. And I think this is where tech regulation will come in. Across Europe, but also across the world. We're going to see a lot more technology being questioned for the future and where it's going. Because in many ways you can say the past was very abusive with our data and now data is no longer just the new oil. It's kind of a plutonium. It can be used as a weapon. And we really need to think about how we can collaborate with technology so that it's a fair handshake. And that's going to happen this year rather next year. It's going to happen in the next decade. It's a big topic, how to use technology without getting eaten by it. In many ways, I think Marc Andreessen said 10 years ago, software is eating the world. And, and now we can say software is cheating the world with social media. That's not a good thing. That's something we have to clearly address because otherwise we may live in this world where we're either wired or fired, where we're ultra connected, or where technology has taken over to such an extent to where we're going to be requested to merge with technology, which I think is a ludicrous idea. Because what would happen with our humanity, that's something we clearly have to keep an eye on. Embrace technology, but don't become it. Great example here is what I call digital ethics. Key topic for the foreseeable future is what is the right thing to do with technology. And if we're looking at this example of people pulling back the Facebook advertising, for example, like here's Unilever saying that they're not going to advertise on Facebook anymore. That was about two months ago. I have to get a status update on this. But many people are saying it's. It just doesn't feel like an ethical thing to do to support platforms that seem in so many ways unethical themselves. So a very, very big discussion about this. And then on top of it, we're heading into global paradigm changes. And I think you'll notice also of course, in northern Europe and in euro region that our mindset is shifting. What used to be unthinkable, like carbon taxes, which we're going to see for airlines, which we're going to see for food. Beef, pork, which we're going to see for so many other things, are becoming the new normal. And again, going back to the normal. What is to be unthinkable may well be the new normal. Here's a stat showing that we're going to eat more non meat meat, so not from animals, but indirectly from the lab, for example, than real meat in the near future. Vegan replacements and cultured meat. Unthinkable? No. Maybe the new normal. So assume less. Think more about the future, the possibilities of what's coming. I think we don't want to go back to normal. We want a better normal, better wiser and more responsible. That is the way that things are going in the future. We're going from this kind of shareholder concept of just making money, no matter what the cost, to a stakeholder model. And that's been discussed many times already last year. But I really believe that this traditional way of capitalism, the way that money moves across the world, primarily based on profit and growth and possibilities, that has to change because it's not working. And it certainly isn't working in this crisis, as the stats are showing. If you make less money, you're more likely to lose your job because of COVID 19 and the more money you already made, the less likely you are to lose your job. There's something fundamentally wrong with this. Also people diving into poverty now, this is something we have to keep in mind. Can't be good for everybody else if there's more inequality, like the us, like Brazil, like South Africa and also the UK for example. We need to tackle this now as, as part of the crisis. So let's hear a quote from Marc Benioff, the CEO of Salesforce, who has been leading this whole stakeholder debate about a new form of capital. So Mark talks about sustainable capitalism, the end of capitalism as we know it. We need to have a Fair, resilient economy. This is going to be absolutely key across the world. I think it's going to take Europe first. To show which way that could be heading. I use a special graph I've come up with quite some time ago here for four new points that I see in impacting our future. People, planet, purpose and prosperity. Quadruple bottom line. Not just prosperity, not just profit, but four things. I think we're going to see a new stock market here. I call this a sysdack, the sustainable Nasdaq that could very well be in Europe. I would hope so, to create a market for companies that prescribe to this kind of process. In Europe we're seeing this kind of idea of United States of Europe rising. That sounds kind of like a paradox because there's so many things that haven't worked. But now with a new program that's helping us to pull together our economies and the whole idea of getting more impulse to the economy, reviving and dealing with the recession is here. And it does show that we are uniting in some interesting new ways. And I think the future of Europe clearly is pointing towards the United States of Europe based on these three benefits. And I think we're going to see a new kind of approach to this as well. To where we're saying, well, in Europe we're going to pursue a circular economy, we're going to think holistically and first of all we're going to focus on human benefits. Not in the sense of the Anthropocene, making the human the center of all of it, but in the idea of digital rights and digital human rights and the things that we want from each other. It's going to be a very, very important future, I think, for us. So let me wrap up and talk about the future mindset. What do we need for the future as we're going into this wildly disparaging world and confusing world where everything is running on top of each other, we need to learn one thing, which is to pay attention, to observe, to listen, to understand, to imagine, to play with the future. And I always say, assume less, discover more, pay more attention to what's happening. I know this is difficult, especially when you're busy or when you're feeling down and out. But this is a solution for our future. This is something that will enable us to come up with new ideas and think of it in new ways. Assume less and discover more. Point number one, pay attention. And as we are going through these mind boggling game changes, whether it's the Internet of Things or Quantum Computing or artificial intelligence. It's really important that we start understanding them more than before. 10% of your time should be spent on the future, on understanding technology, understanding the impact of technology, society, culture. Because you may think that we're going fast, but the reality is we're going to get there a lot faster than we ever imagined. It's not going to take 10 years, it's going to take five years and all the changes are going to be here. So Mark Benioff again quote from a wise man says we need to get to the future ahead of our customers and to be ready to greet them when they arrive. This is the key, I think, especially now, get to the future before everybody else does. And then when your customers come, make them feel welcome. So go beyond normal. Here's a great example from Dubai and the Emirates who are providing a global COVID 19 coverage idea to incentivize flying. I think that's going to be a tough one to pull off, but I love the idea of going the extra mile, doing something beyond normal. This is just one out of many examples. And also in terms of politics and leadership, here's the great example, the Prime Minister of New Zealand. If I could distill it down into one concept that we are pursuing in New Zealand, it is and it is this kindness. Yes. Imagine that as the idea of the global collaboration kindness of a new market, of new relationships with our customers. This is an amazing bottom line. The other thing that goes with this is to understand that we are going to the future where we have to deal with volatility, uncertainty. This is our new default ambiguity, the vuca. And we have to flip that vuca. We have to understand how we are going to create something that is awesome, that is fast, that evolves around co creation, velocity and unorthodoxy. Flipping the VUCA is going to be crucial, something we have to learn. Again, going back to the great transformation from the beginning, here's a couple of key points. First, be safe and survive. Make sure things are working. At second, show solidarity and collaborate. Third, adapt and pivot in your business model and transform and renew what your business is all about. So I want to finish off with a key quote that I like to use a lot. Shape the future or be shaped by it. Those are our choices. I want to thank you very much for your attention and I really look forward to seeing you down the road. Take care. Goodbye Riga.