Emergency measures: America’s border deal

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Hello and welcome to the Intelligence on Economist Radio. I'm your host, Jason Palmer. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. There's a general election in Nigeria this weekend. It'll be a close contest and there are already accusations of vote rigging. Also this week, engineers at NASA at last said goodbye to Opportunity, a Mars rover that outlasted its formal 90 day mission by nearly 15 years. First up, though, Last night Congress agreed on a funding bill that aims to avoid another government shutdown. The bill would give President Trump nearly $1.4 billion for his border wall.

On this vote, the A's are 300. The nays are 128. The conference report is adopted. Without objection, a motion to reconsider is laid upon the table.

It's far less than the $5.7 billion President Trump wanted. But after a bruising government shutdown for which he bore the brunt of the blame, he seems reluctant to force another one. The White House has said President Trump will declare a national emergency, an extremely controversial workaround to get the border wall money anyway.

He's prepared to sign the bill. He will also be issuing a national emergency declaration at the same time.

His promise to build the wall was a key part of his election campaign. But the Constitution grants Congress the power of the purse. Democrats say that President Trump's evident plan represents a dangerous shift in the balance of power.

I'm not advocating for any president doing an end run around Congress. I'm just saying that the Republicans should have some dismay about the door that they are opening.

So how significant would it be for President Trump to declare a national emergency? And what would the implications be for America's democracy? Joining me to discuss that is John Prudhoe, our United States Senator. John, first up, just a quick recap of what's been happening.

Well, the first thing to say is that there's not going to be another government shutdown anytime soon. That's good news For America the two parties came together compromised. The President's going to get $1.375 billion to extend the wall or fence on the southern border. That's a long way short of the 5.7 billion he was asking for. And actually, it's a fair way short of what Democrats offered him in December before the shutdown started. So it's a bit of a blow to his reputation as an ace negotiator, but it does at least prevent another shutdown.

And then what's the bad news?

Well, the not so good news, Jason, is the White House has said the President is going to declare a state of emergency to grant himself the authority to build some of his wall on the border with Mexico.

And why does he want to go about things in this way?

He wants to go about it this way because he feels that he's been thwarted by Congress. There's a partly a political explanation that you could look at a base rallying strategy. But I also think there's something psychological here going on. The President, if you look at his business career, doesn't take, well, to being kind of thwarted, to being told that he can't do what he wants to do and sometimes acts in a way that is not, in fact, in his own interests. And I. I think that's the case here. I mean, already you've seen condemnation from some Republican senators who ordinarily have his back. This is not going down particularly well among the kind of conservative commentariat who worry about the expansion of executive authority. So it's quite a strange move. It may not even result in much wall being built, Jason, because it's likely to be tied up in legal challenges.

Well, quite. I mean, let's talk about how exactly the emergency powers work. What, what exactly does it gr. How are these things structured?

Well, there's a really interesting history here. The statute that this all sort of boils down to comes from 1976, when Congress was trying to clean up the rules after Nixon and Watergate. And they thought, you know, all the conventions around when the President can declare an emergency are a bit fuzzy, so we need to codify them. And so, you know, really that was an effort about trying to restrain the president. In fact, what's happened since is that those powers have been invoked quite frequently by presidents, and quite often these emerg. So they very often provide the legal underpinnings for sanctions. The sanctions against members of the government in Venezuela, for example, date to an emergency declaration from Barack Obama when he was president. But the thing that's really Unusual about this one is that I think on any sort of fair reading, the emergency that the president is citing isn't really an emergency. I mean, he of course, would point to illegal immigrants pointing the crossing the border and say that they commit crime and so forth. But most people who look at this say that actually illegal border crossings are way down now compared with where they were a few years ago. So it's really hard to see how that meets a common definition of emergency.

So if President Trump goes, goes through with it, what can Congress do? What will Congress do?

Well, there's one option which is Congress could overrule him. I think that's probably unlikely. If you look at the maths of the votes, much more likely is that there'll be a lawsuit or a couple of lawsuits. The House Democrats could try and sue the president, though. There's a question there legally about whether they have standing to do so. What seems very likely is that anybody who is a landowner where some more border wall or border fencing would be built will try and sue the president. And so that seems like the likeliest avenue for a lawsuit. So I would expect this to be to be held up.

Do you think there's an uncomfortable precedent being set here, this end run around Congress, as Nancy Pelosi describes it? Do you think there's something to worry about?

I think there is something to worry about there. I mean, it's not so unusual for presidents to declare a state of emergency. It's happened a few times already under Donald Trump's presidency. Peter. Barack Obama declared a few, George W. Bush declared a few. So this is kind of standard procedure for presidents. What is very unusual is to declare a state of emergency to try and do something that Congress has already said you can't do. So that's a very important constitutional point and also a state of emergency that I think on any fair reading isn't really an emergency. So it's a sort of break with reality apart from anything else. And so, yes, I think there is. You know, this would create precedent. And that's part of what Republican senators are worried about. You know, they would say privately, well, you know, if Donald Trump is able to do this, what's to stop a future Democratic president from, say, declaring there's a state of emergency over climate change and using federal money to kind of fill Texas with solar panels? So this could be a moment where there's a subtle, but I think important change in the Constitution.

John, thanks for joining us.

Thanks, Jason.

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Tomorrow, Africa's biggest economy and most populous nation will vote to elect a new leader. Nigeria's incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari will face the former vice president Atiku Abubakar. The last time Nigeria held presidential elections.

It made history in 2015. It was really the first time that Nigeria's democratic history saw a peaceful handover of power between the two main parties.

Anna Cunningham reports for the Economist from Lagos.

In Nigeria, President Goodluck Jonathan lost the election to President Mohammedu Buhari, and it took everybody by surprise when he conceded without disputing the result.

I promised the country free and fair elections.

I've kept my word. Nigerians will now tell you that it really felt it was the first time for them they were allowed to truly reward those who did well and oust those from power who hadn't achieved what they'd expected.

Tomorrow's general elections will test whether Nigeria's nascent democracy will remain on track.

The Nigerians that I have been speaking to about this election are concerned about whether it will be free and fair. There is a certain level of fear of violence. There is also an indication of apathy among certain parts of society with people saying that whatever happens, it will make little difference to them.

So how would you compare the two candidates in this election? Just sort of give me a sketch of what everyone sees about them.

If we look at President Mohammedu Buhari first, he's a former military dictator, 76 years old. He came to power on a ticket to tackle corruption, improve security, defeat Boko Haram, the Islamist militant group, bolster the economy. Instead. What we've seen in these past four years is Nigeria slide into a recession. Repeatedly, the government has said that Boko Haram is technically defeated. Yet we continue to hear about attacks. And regarding the corruption that Bahari has said he will tackle, there is a perception that really he's just been dealing with political opponents. And those cases that have been charged or brought to court, there really haven't been many convictions. If we look at atiku Abubakr, he's 72 years old former vice president. He's really seen as a businessman. His supporters believe he can get the economy working again. But there are various allegations of corruption, including in the United states, where the U.S. senate report accused him of laundering some $40 million in suspicious funds in the U.S. between 2000 and 2008. Now, those are allegations he's repeatedly denied. He's never been charged. But people continue to ask questions and about his time as a customs officer.

And so how would you compare what Mr. Buhari and Mr. Abubakar are campaigning on?

I think what's interesting this time for Nigeria is that for the first time ever, there is no difference of ethnicity or religion between the two main candidates. They're both northern Muslim Hausa speakers, ethnic Fulanis, but they have been forced to talk about policy this time, simple terms. Bahari really is positioning himself as a statist big government candidate, even to the point of being more socialist. In terms of Atiku Abubakr, he's pitching himself as a free market privatiser to the point of talking about privatizing the nnpc, Nigeria's National Petroleum Corporation.

And how has the campaign been so.

Far the past few weeks? It's actually become a little bit more dirtier. People have been accusing each other of planning for electoral fraud and widespread violence. And I think as we get closer to election day, there's certainly a sense of nervousness from both sides.

What do you make of those claims of electoral fraud?

I think there is a real concern. I've spoken to people in Lagos who have been very vocal and angry about not being able to get their permanent photo cards. They were going to these offices and they were being told that the cards couldn't be found or that they hadn't been delivered or printed yet.

Just look at the mammoth crowd. And people have to wait. They have to go through this just to get their PPCs. I already feel disenfranchised. It's been utter chaos. You just feel like animals, like you're being pushed left and right. You don't even know what to do.

It's as if the entire process is.

Being designed to frustrate voters from partaking.

In the 2019 election. It's totally a sham, I'm sorry to say.

And they fear what's happened is that their cards have simply been sold on and that votes have been bought up already. Clearly we have no actual evidence of that. But that is what people are talking about in it is their fear.

And among those who do make it to the polls, what are they sort of Voting on what are the issues that are most important, you know, for everyday citizens?

I think it really depends where you ask this question. In Nigeria, if you are in the south, then people certainly have big concerns about the economy and about jobs. If you head to the northeast, I think the issue there continues to be about security.

Right. Because the northeast is the area where Boko Haram is the greatest concern.

Certainly, yes. And Boko Haram continue to carry out attacks. We heard earlier this week about a big attack on the Borno state Governor Shetima. And although they've not issued anything officially to say that this is what we will do, I think there is a fear that they could try and disrupt the election.

Okay, and quite apart then from the jihadist violence, are there concerns around kind of more general election violence?

I think there is always a fear that there could potentially be election violence. Back in 2011, there was some 800 people killed in the central belt area. In places like Lagos, we're hearing about schools closing early. I also went into a nursery school and spoke to some teachers there. And people are very afraid of violence coming from so called area boys.

We call them area boys. They are armed, so they just want to take advantage. Take your phones, your money, whatever you have.

These are groups of thugs who can be heavily armed and if you drag.

It up with them, you get injured. So whatever anybody is doing this time around, this election time, it's got to be very careful.

The issue here is that some of the area boys get paid by politicians to carry out this violence. So in that sense it is actually linked to elections.

And with all that in mind, how do you expect this election to play out?

I think this is going to be a very close run election. It's certainly difficult to predict the outcome of this. There are no exit polls. There are very few reliable independent polling of voters. The one thing that concerns people is that between President Mohammedu Buhari and his main rival Atiku Abubakr, both of them have a history of contesting election results. And the senior lawyers that I have been talking to in Nigeria have said that as far as they're concerned, it's not a case of if this result ends up in court, but when that the results come out and we could see them disputed, and then we're set for a long drawn out court case before we actually get any conclusion.

Anna, thanks a lot for your time.

Thank you. It's been a pleasure.

The 15 year mission of NASA's Mars Rover Opportunity has come to an end. Oppy, as it's called last made contact with Earth eight months ago. But after a planet spanning dust storm and it stopped sending out signals, NASA has at last said it would stop listening out for a reply.

Even though it's a machine and we're saying goodbye, it's still very hard and very poignant. But we had to do that. We came to that point.

Opportunity landed on the red planet in January 2004, shortly after its twin, a rover called Spirit. Spirit's journey ended in 2009 after it became stuck in soft soil. NASA said that during its life on Mars, Oppy was responsible for one of the most successful and enduring feats of interplanetary exploration. It was designed to last just 90 Martian days and travel two thirds of a mile. But the rover ended up exceeding its life expectancy by 60 times and traveled more than 28 miles. Here to tell us more about the little rover that did is our briefings editor, Oliver Morton. Hello, Oliver.

Hi, Jason.

What sort of work did Oppy get up to in all of that time?

Oppie was basically a geologist. Had a little boring tool for boring into rocks. It could kick up a little bit of dirt with its wheels. Had a little microscopy thing, more like a sort of like jeweller's loop. Had cameras with stereoscopy so it could sort of like get the full picture of things. It was basically looking at rocks. That was what it did.

And what did it find?

It found that there were a lot of interesting rocks on Meridiani Planum on Mars, which was kind of why it was sent there, because it was thought that there would be. Humans had never before seen stratified sedimentary rocks up close on another planet. So it saw rocks that have been laid down in water in the early history of Mars. It saw mineralogy that no one was expecting. It saw clays ran down valleys, and it generally ran around seeing hard rocks in a way that nothing had ever done before on Mars.

You mentioned water quite passingly. That was a big deal, wasn't it?

Well, it was and it wasn't. No one really thought there has never been any water on Mars because there are like vast channels where water flowed. But no one had ever really got the understanding of a geological setting with water on Mars. And, you know, both Opportunity and its sibling Spirit, both found strong evidence of water having been on the surface of Mars.

And that has led to people feeling, I guess, quite attached to it. The people at NASA sounded devastated when they announced, like, we're not gonna try anymore. Where do you suppose this sort of almost emotional attachment comes from working with.

An object that actually goes and does things and requires care. People who have to care for something, one always hopes become attached to it. If you actually have to look after an object that does things in the world and provides you with things that you find difficult, deeply fascinating day in and day out, or sol in and sol out in the case of Mars, then, you know, you become attached.

What about prospects then for Mars exploration now? What's inherited? Opportunity's legacy, for now, anyway.

Well, at the moment, the last rover standing is Curiosity, which is wandering around a crater called Gale. So it's rather more deliberate than that. It's moving around in Gale again, studying ancient sediments for signs of water. There will be another rover very similar to Curiosity going in, I think, 2020, and that will be the first one that will cache some of the rock samples that it takes so that at a later date they can be brought back to Earth. And that's something that the scientists involved are absolutely desperate for, because there's an awful lot you can do with these rovers on the planet. But in the end, you want to get some Mars rocks right there in your lab and do all those exciting, laby things to them.

Oliver, thanks for your time.

You're very, very welcome.

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. You can subscribe to the economist@exterator.com radio offer 12 issues for $12 or 12 pounds. See you back here on Monday.

Sam.