Fairly unusual: Ghana’s elections

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Hello and welcome to the intelligence on Economist Radio. I'm your host, Jason Palmer. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. For decades, Britain has operated under the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy. Now that it's set to exit the bloc, we examine how the country can adjust its farming practices and and its subsidies for the better. And around Japan's ancient capital, Nara, Deer are on the loose and making mischief. Normally they're fed by millions of visitors, but a pandemic driven slump in tourism has left them hungry. First up though, today in Ghana, there are presidential and parliamentary elections. Last night, the incumbent President Nana Okufo Addo, promised the vote would be free of interference.

As President of the Republic, it is my responsibility to guarantee the peace of the nation. It is thus crucial that tomorrow's vote be conducted in an atmosphere of peace and security, security devoid of intimidation and violence.

In recent months in Africa, there's been a run of elections dogged by allegations of vote rigging and sometimes marred by violence, including in Ghana's neighbor, Ivory Coast. But today's poll looks to be a.

Bright spot in view of the happenings on the continent and indeed in West Africa. The entire world is looking up to us to maintain our status as a beacon of democracy, peace and stability on the African continent.

Mr. Akufo Addo's main opponent is John Mahama, the previous president. It's the third time the two have squared up in a presidential election. If it goes smoothly, it could provide an inspiration to the rest of the region.

So Ghana's election today is likely to be stable, certainly by standards of recent elections in the region.

Kinley Salmon is our Africa correspondent.

And Ghana really is a good example of democracy in West Africa. There's been a history of transitions going back decades, and the two rivals, John Muhammad and Nana Kufu Addo, have been rivals for a long time. But there's always been an underlying level of respect for democracy in the process. And in 2016. They stood against each other. And when John Muhammad conceded the presidency back, he did so in a way that was really an example for the region as a whole and beyond.

This is why I stand here today, Mr. Speaker, holding the baton of leadership, prepared to pass it on with pride, goodwill and determination to Nana Adudankwa Akufuado and to ask all Ghanaians to cheer him on as he runs his portion of this important relay for Ghana.

And so that spirit of gentlemanly democratic competition will continue again this year.

Yeah, that's largely expected. I mean, even this weekend, just before the elections, both major party leaders and others signed a peace pact around which there was a ceremony, but also a level of celebration. But that said, despite this broad background of kind of democratic norms, the election won't be perfect. There are still issues with political violence in Ghana. There was even a member of Parliament who fired off a gun, not injuring people, but in an altercation with opposition supporters. And there's been ongoing concern about vigilante groups who aren't perhaps closely linked to parties, but sometimes seem to be working on their behalf, although there have been some efforts to reduce that, including a law in Parliament. And there's also been some controversy over a new electoral roll between the major parties about who's actually allowed to vote at all. So it's not a perfect system, but many are looking to Ghana as an inspiration.

And since the discussion can be mostly about, you know, actual election issues, what are they? What are Ghanaian voters voting on?

Well, there's a lot of big issues at stake in this election. I mean, Mr. Kufuado, the incumbent, is looking and pointing towards competence on the economy, pointing out the promises that his party and he have kept since 2016. A particularly notable one has been and free education for the senior years of high school. His opponent, John Muhammad, and civil society have accused him of failing to get a grip on corruption, a problem that remains significant in Ghana. So corruption and the economy really are significant issues. And of course, Covid, as in much of the world, looms large here too. Ghana has had relatively fewer cases and deaths from COVID than much of the world. And so the government is looking to claim credit for its handling of that and also the. The support it's provided to people to get through. But it's also affecting the election a bit. A lot more campaigning online, people being asked to wear masks to rallies and so on. So there's a lot that's different for Ghanaian voters and a lot to consider.

Why do you think it is that Ghana has avoided the Democratic worries that we've seen elsewhere in the region. I mean, we've talked on the show about Tanzania, Ivory coast and Guinea. What's different about Ghana?

Well, a number of things, you know, and it is seen in the region, I think, as well as an example. And one of the reasons for that is that it has quite a long history of democratic elections, but also of changes of power. And there's also a fact that in Ghana, perhaps unlike some of the other countries that have had recent trouble, for example guinea, democratic politics in Ghana is less about identity. It's less about, for example, region or ethnic background, and more about ideas. So the parties, the major parties, can be seen as center right and center left. Of course, some of those regional factors, like anywhere, still matter. But that ideas, not identity, I think, can make it easier for the system to move on and people not to feel as hit by an electoral loss than they might elsewhere. And then, of course, Ghana is an economic success story in West Africa. It's had, for the most part, economic stability and certainly pretty robust economic growth over a longish period. And that, of course helps build stability, I think, for democracy as well.

And so the pandemic doesn't threaten that economic stability that's given all the democratic stability.

Well, the pandemic certainly has hit the Ghanaian economy pretty hard, like most economies in Africa, even if the health effects have have been somewhat smaller than other regions. And in Ghana, as with elsewhere as well, the government has tried to react to that by increasing support to people, by ramping up spending on various things. But to do that, they've often had to borrow. And Ghana, despite its relatively strong economic history, has had also a history of debt crises. It's had multiple IMF interventions over the years. And I think the concern now is that they may again get back into that cycle of having relatively positive growth. But then a crisis related to debt. And the country was actually pretty heavily in debt before COVID 19 hit. And then partly because of that response, but perhaps also partly because of increased spending in an election year, which often happens in Ghana. The budget deficit is, the IMF suggests, going to reach 16.4% of GDP. The government says it will be lower, but if the IMF's correct, that would be the highest in Sub Saharan Africa this year. And even despite this significant economic hurdle and this risk of debt in the future, there aren't a lot of promises on the campaign trail to cut spending.

So as you say, this is about ideas and the real issues facing the country. I mean, it's kind of a comparatively boring election, I suppose. Do you think that'll have an influence on the region if it goes ahead in a free and fair and calm way?

Yeah, that's right. I think that assuming it does end up being as free and fair and peaceful as people hope, which seems likely, then it really can be an example for the region. And I think it's already the case that many other West Africans look to Ghana and its democracy as something of an example. And so another free and well run election now I think could really provide an inspiration for the rest of the region of how this process of democracy can happen in a way that perhaps hasn't been happening in their countries, but a close and proximate example for them of what democracy really can look like.

Kinley, thank you very much for joining us.

Thank you.

You can find a lot more analysis like this from our international network of correspondence in the Economist. Get a great introductory deal on a digital or print subscription@exterator.com intelligenceoffer. The link is in the show Notes.

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Britain has reached the end game for Brexit. Talks this week with the European Union will still focus on sticking points that have lingered for months, access to fisheries and harmonized competition rules. At issue is securing a trade deal by the end of the year to avoid log jams and delays in moving goods. But Britain's divorce will also have major implications on its farming industry.

So I'm Izzy Rainey and I'm a farmer. Well, I like to call myself a farmer. My typical day on the farm at the moment, wake up at about 6, 6:15. So not crazy, crazy early. I come, I feed everything that's inside. Then it's just a case of sort of daily chores fix. There's always something to do on the farm.

For almost 50 years, Britain's farmland has been governed by Europe's common agricultural policy. Its main objective was to promote food production. In the wake of the Second World.

War, the countries united in the EEC have decided to create jointly what they can no longer create individually a healthy agriculture in a modern European economy.

In that aim, it was undeniably a success. But it wasn't without its problems. Environmentalists complain that the scheme had a negative impact on the land, and farmers bemoan its unfair payment system of subsidies. Now, with Britain set to finalize its EU divorce, those laws will no longer apply. A selling point for Brexiteers during the referendum campaign.

On the subject of Brexit, I'm really hoping it isn't going to affect too much at this stage, but I don't think people know how it's going to affect us really yet.

Last month, the British government sketched out new policies to reform how subsidies are paid and to make post Brexit farming more environmentally friendly.

As we contemplate the biggest change in agricultural policy in half a century, we need to design a policy that is not only right for those who are the custodians of our countryside today, but which is also right for those who follow in their footsteps tomorrow.

But the plans have been criticized by many in the industry, including the National Farmers Union, as being light on detail.

On the 1st of January, Britain is going to leave the common agricultural policy.

Joel Budd is the Economist's social policy editor.

And so, as a result, it needs to come up with new agricultural policies.

And so what is it that it's leaving behind? How does the common agricultural policy work?

To begin with, it was a production subsidy. Farmers were given subsidies to produce more milk, more grain, and as a result, they produced enormous quantities of everything. And then about 15 years ago, the system changed. And these days British farmers get subsidies in essentially just for being farmers. There are a few very basic things that they have to do. They can't pollute the water too egregiously, but really, they get money just for being farmers. Even farmers organizations know in theory, that subsidies are quite a bad thing. One problem with the subsidies is that they are regressive because it's a per hectare payment. Obviously, the biggest, wealthiest farmers get the most amount of subsidy. They don't really encourage environmental behavior.

And why is that?

Over the last half century or so, farming is by far the most important cause of habitat loss. The most studied taxa are birds. Roughly half of the nesting farmland birds have disappeared over the last half century. Under the common agricultural policy, there are ways of getting money to farmers who do green things. For example, a farmer might leave the edge of their fields untended so that a bird could nest in it. And about half a billion pounds a year is spent on this. In Britain, the problem is that that is wrapped up in a huge amount of bureaucracy. It is amazing to talk to farmers who apply for these grants, just how many forms they're required to fill in. I mean, you know, huge thick binders worth and so about two thirds of them just don't bother at all.

I don't take advantage of much of the government based schemes just because I feel like the schemes are really in for larger farms. Because we're only a small farm. We can't really take advantage of say like the rewilding because if we were to put say 20 acres of our farm down to rewilding, we'd lose a quarter of our grazing.

You say Britain doesn't really have a full fledged replacement plan for the policy. Once Britain escapes it in January they have released a transition plan. But is that enough?

It doesn't have a detailed plan. What it does have is it has some quite bold aspirations and these were laid down very soon after the Brexit vote by Michael Gove, who was then Secretary of State for Agriculture and the Environment. And he said, you know, instead of having subsidies per hectare, we should just be paying for public goods. By which he meant nature and the environment. If England can create a new kind of payment system which doesn't pay people simply for being farmers, but pays them for doing environmental work, that will be a really big change. One thing that's likely to happen is that quite a few farmers are going to go bust. They will probably retire and other farmers will come in and take their place. One hopes that biodiversity will begin to recover, but it's going to be very, very difficult to push these reforms through.

But surely if this is an EU wide policy, it creates those same skewed incentives and environmental outcomes also elsewhere in. I mean, why isn't there a push for change there?

There have been many attempts to alter the common agricultural policy. Green groups have been pushing for change for a long time, but it's very difficult to overcome objections from the farming lobbies who are very powerful. They're extremely good at mobilizing. In France in particular, they're very good at demonstrating, very good at driving their tractors into town centres and dumping vegetables on the street and that sort of thing. It's just been very hard to change anything. The country that has sort of managed to do so in a strange way is Switzerland, which has enormous subsidies, much higher than EU countries have. They give out normal subsidies and also subsidies for nature. If you look at the population of farmland birds in Switzerland, it looks much better than in almost any other European country. But it's a very expensive system.

And so the plans that are on the table will or will not address the fundamental shortcomings of the common agricultural policy. Do you think what does Britain need and do you think it'll get?

If these plans do go through, they ought to have a good effect on biodiversity in Britain. The really difficult thing I think that the government is going to have to confront is what does it do about supporting what we could call landscape? There are many farmers out there, and most particularly sheep farmers in upland regions. Although the farming they do is not really very environmentally sound, it does produce landscape that British people love. So if you think about the Lake District, it's a very heavily grazed landscape, but it's a landscape that we regard as beautiful. And the farmers in those areas are going to find it very hard, I think, to adapt to the new green policies. And if they start to struggle and go under, then I think the entire system could be in danger. It's going to be very hard to create agricultural policies that are exactly right. But almost whatever we come up with, I'm fairly sure is going to be better than what we have at the the moment. So what we have at the moment is a subsidy system that is almost exactly wrong.

Joel, thank you very much for joining us.

Thank you.

Nara is an ancient capital of Japan that in a normal year attracts 13 people million visitors. They tend to amble toward a park at the edge of the city, passing a towering wooden pagoda, a temple complex founded 13 centuries ago, and nearby, a 400 ton Buddha statue that is the country's largest. Most tourists round off their trip by feeding the deer that live in the park. But the pandemic has put paid to that.

The sacred deer of Nara are going hungry.

Noah Snyder is our Tokyo bureau chief.

They've gotten used to feeding on a special rice cracker, shikasembe, that tourists feed them in the park. Naturally, during the pandemic, there have been fewer tourists and thus fewer crackers for the dear to eat.

So they're entirely reliant on tourist crackers for their diet.

Not entirely. The deer are wild and they do still know how to forage. But if someone comes and offers you free crackers, you take them. So they've gotten accustomed to having food brought to them during the pandemic, though they've had to revert to their more resourceful selves. Many of them have been wandering further and further from home in search for food. There's a group of scientists, ecologists, who monitor the deer and they found that 20% fewer deer are spending their days in the confines of the park. They're wandering out into town looking for food. In fact, incidents of damage Caused by the deer have shot up this year. There are some who have become especially addicted to the tourist crackers, and they can be found, emaciated, Wandering the park, Waiting for the tourists to return.

And surely it's not just the deer that are suffering if the area is dependent on tourism.

Exactly. Many Japanese businesses, Especially in places like Nara, Are suffering. And it's especially acute Because Japan has seen the tourism industry really boom recently. Fewer than 7 million foreign tourists visited Japan in 2009. Last year, that number was up to 32 million, and revenue had hit a record high as well. Tourism Exports brought in $46 billion this year. Folks were hoping for even more. The olympics were supposed to happen in tokyo. Japan had, in fact, hoped to welcome 40 million foreign tourists to its shores this year. Instead, the government has imposed really strict restrictions on folks entering Japan because of COVID 19. So arrivals from overseas have dropped about 99.4% compared to last year.

So the government has stopped people coming in, but what's it done for the people who are already in?

Well, they've really been trying to cushion the blow and to keep the tourism industry afloat, The Japanese government has earmarked over a trillion yen, the equivalent of nearly $13 billion, for travel subsidies that give japanese residents discounts of up to 35% at hotels and inns around the country. A similar program applies to restaurants, and it's been working in the sense that folks are traveling. The government is especially eager to do so because they see tourism As a way to compensate For Japan's own shrinking population in the future. They think it might even be a way to help get people used to the idea of having foreigners around and thus make them more open to foreign migrants in the future. The problem is that this program of subsidies has had ill effects for public health, and critics blame these travel subsidies For a recent uptick in COVID 19 that has seen cases hit record highs in terms of daily infections. So they're slowly walking the program back.

But doesn't that spell more danger than for the deer?

So it might be bad for the deer that have become especially addicted to the tourist crackers. But in fact, there's a silver lining for the more resourceful ones. They've reverted to a much healthier diet. They've started eating plants and nuts, the kinds of things that deer are really supposed to be eating. And that's been really good for their digestive health. Scientists have been monitoring the deer's droppings and they say that they had gone pale and runny as the deer were getting cracker induced diarrhea. Now they've become firmer, darker, a more natural shape and size for deer droppings. Unfortunately, belt tightening probably won't have as healthy effects for the economy.

Noah, thanks very much for your time.

Thank you very much for having me.

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. If you like us, give us a rating on Apple Podcasts and see you back here tomorrow. Sam.