Futurist Gerd Leonhard - Navigating The Future: A Blueprint For Technology And Humanity

We should be optimistic not because we have less problems, but because we have more capacity to solve them. This is important. We don't want to live in a world where OpenAI, for example, is the Tyrell Corporation. That's kind of what OpenAI is becoming, if you haven't noticed. They're inventing digital reality, digital simulations, digital humans. The key question is no longer if and how something can be done, but why we should do it. Anything can be done. That's the answer. You want to upload your brain to the internet? You can do that now. It's kind of expensive. But here's the question: why we should do it, and who can we trust? Who's in charge? Who is mission control for humanity? Good morning. Salaam. Namaste. Guten Morgen, Grüezi miteinander, bonjour à tous, salamat pag-ee, and so on. It's great to be with you today. I am honored to be in such an illustrious crowd of engineers and scientists and IBM leaders. I am, of course, myself, not exactly a scientist. I started in the music business. About 30 years ago. I was a musician and producer. I went to the internet business. I wrote a book called "The Future of Music," which Spotify is based on today. And I found out that I had this kind of knack for understanding the future, for seeing what's coming, not in a sort of prediction way, but just in a way of understanding what might be next. I like this one because I'm kind of in it. I told ChatGPT and DALL-E, to make a picture of the future of Dubai. And it made this. It's a pretty cool tool. And you could tell it to do all kinds of things. And then I said, well, preparing for this event, I should use AI just to show what's possible and what's not. And I did quite a bit of work on that. And so I came up with a few ideas. And one great tool that I use a lot is translation. So what's happening with the future, as I like to say, it's no longer about this idea of prediction, but it's to be better prepared. This is important. Predicting the future is difficult. I think it was possible maybe in the '50s to some degree, but now it's exponential. Like 10 years from now, you know what's going to happen 10 years from now? It's the end of oil, right? I mean, talk about crazy. The shift to renewable energy, maybe nuclear fusion. Some people are saying 10, 15, 20 years. The end of cancer in 20 years. Longevity. You know, my kids that are 30 years old, they will live on average to be 100 years old unless something funny happens. Right? So it's really about this. It's to be better prepared. So I took the sentence and I asked the AI to help me out to address you. Okay, that's me speaking Arabic. If you speak Arabic, I don't think it's perfect, but I did understand one word, mustaqbal, which is the future in Arabic. But then I figured I should stretch it further. I don't know if you speak Hindi. I'm sure some of you do. Was it reasonable? Yeah. I hope it didn't say anything really funny. But the interesting part is it can actually do it in my voice. And now I have a pretty busy YouTube channel. I have 1,000 hours of video or so. And now people are saying, can you just please make sure you have more Hindi-speaking keynotes? And we'll translate them. And it turns out it's— Sometimes pretty bad. But German and Spanish is good. It's a good tool. It's useful for this. This teaches us one lesson about AI. Do the stuff that you can live with if it's not perfect. That's a good lesson. I call it intelligent assistance. So what if the Spanish is not so good? It's better than nothing. It's not like we're going to do mission control for NATO aircraft here. You know, that's a different story. So when we look at this future, I have prepared 9 points for you today. I hope I get through them. Point number 1, the future is better than we think. You know, the future today has a bad reputation. It's kind of like New York City in the '70s. Yeah. The future can be amazing. I mean, the stuff we're inventing is truly mind-blowing. Nevertheless, people are saying, well, you know, the future, Yeah, it's kind of like the planet is wilting, the doors are closing. And in Europe, there's about 70% of people, millennial age, 30, that say they will not have kids because the future will be terrible. My own kids tell me this. I should think about having kids because the future doesn't look really good. Well, if we look at the facts, of course, ultimately there's two different scenes that we're seeing around the world in different ways of looking at statistics and of course at the news. On the left, we have all the bad news, and I have his friend Kevin Kelly at Wired magazine who says something very important about this. He's a futurist, of course. He says we should be optimistic, not because we have less problems, but because we have more capacity to solve them. This is important. We think about the problems. There are 70 elections in the world this year. In India, in America, of course, in Indonesia was just wrapped up. And a lot of problems will come from this, of course. But do we have capacity to solve? We have capacity to solve, of course, practical things. That is already a very good start. So 10 billion people feeding 10 billion people. But look at the statistics here. If we look on the left, some people are saying, well, artificial intelligence means automation, which means less jobs. So on the left, we have this statistic showing 236 million people might be unemployed in China because of automation and AI, and a pretty nasty story when you read the rest of it. On the right-hand side, we have a statistic also from Gartner and Goldman Sachs showing that all technology has increased the propensity for new jobs. They're directly opposing in a way, you could say. So which one will it be? We have on this side showing how we failed with climate change. We have negotiated for 40 years on climate agreements. And here's the curve, the PPM, the particles per minute, they keep going up and up. There's not a single hiccup, not even COVID. That is a dent in this curve. I mean, that's pathetic, right? But on the left, we have a curve that's showing what's really happening also is that we have the possibilities of disconnecting global warming emissions from the growth of GDP. We can grow without emissions if we do it right. Not completely without emissions, right? So the idea of degrowth, I think that's a difficult sell for most people, is to not grow and not have kids, not— expand. So this is happening. We have capacity to solve. So I say the doors aren't closing, they're opening. And if you've ever been in therapy with your husband or your wife or your kids, most likely, you find that when the doors are really closed, nothing happens. You go somewhere where you find a solution, and then a tiny door opens, like a little small door off, and then boom, there's a new world. Or not, depending how open you are. This is where we are today. We have wars, we have geopolitics, we have climate change, we have artificial intelligence, we have a race to the top there. I mean, good things and bad things, right? But the doors are opening. Climate change is a door that's opening towards the green economy, the biggest door in the last 100 years. World Economic Forum says 100 million new jobs in climate change. Can you imagine? And yes, of course, the oil industry doesn't really like the idea. I mean, look where we are, right? Think about this for a second. It's a painful change, but it's a good change. AI is a painful change. Guess what? Machines are no longer stupid. That's what it comes down to. Machines are not smart like us. They're not intelligent like humans. I'll talk about that in a second. They're just no longer stupid. That makes a very big difference. Biotechnology, being able to reinvent materials based on biology, geoengineering, and all these kinds of things. So I say we have all the tools. What we need is the telos, the wisdom. It's funny, when you look around today, you can say we have all the tools we could apply to solve these issues. We've chosen not to do that. The first thing we do when we invent artificial intelligence, the first thing, the commercialization, of course, was the military, right? We go out and we build drones that can kill by themselves. I think there's other things that we could do with these things. We have to rethink the opportunity that we have here. That basically is number 2. 3 door openers. Okay, when I say Big Blue, I don't mean IBM, even though that's obviously confusing, but I'm talking about technology, right? So there's 3 door openers coming, and they are going to change every part of our world. The digital revolution, which is not just artificial intelligence, right now it seems like it is, right? The second one, the sustainable revolution, changing how we do energy, how we deal with pollution, how we grow things, what we eat, everything. And this is all going to happen in the next 20 years. The third one is the purpose revolution. That is a revolution about what matters. At my age, people of that generation, It's primarily about profit and growth and doing well. Now we have a new generation. Many of you are in that generation, the millennials, Gen Y. There's more things that matter than this tiny universe of profit and growth, right? People, planet, purpose. So remember those three things. Big Blue is about holistic thinking. You will not be successful in technology unless you think of the consequences the side effects, the opportunities, the challenges. We have to think a little bit further than we used to because technology is so powerful now. I mean, think about this for a second. Facebook 10 years ago, most of the advertising was on Facebook, Meta today, right? Didn't really work. Today it works so well that their profile about you is deeper than the NSA. That's because of progress. We have to think holistically. Big Green is about circular thinking, thinking about the larger story. And Big Purple, which I borrow from Indian mythology, purple meaning, of course, the chakra, the inside, the people. And that is, of course, all coming together. And that is changing the way that we look at the future in material ways, as it's steering us away from this old obsession about one thing. The bottom line. I guarantee you, if we continue in one direction of saying, if we make good money, it's fine, no matter what happens, that will kill us. We did that, of course, with gas and oil. We had to drive, we had to have factories. So that was the consequence. Now, similar things are happening with AI. We have to think about how we will serve the quadruple bottom line, people, planet, purpose, to really make sense. The age of extraction, oil companies, gas companies, and of course, social networks, right? Because they're extracting the data from us. Same thing. That's closing. And now we have the age of creation. The most powerful human age. We can use these power tools to truly create anything. That's the scary part. Anything we want. So the key question is changing. I'll talk about that in a second. But really what it means now, the millennials are coming. Let's say ballpark 25 to 40. They're inheriting money from their parents. They're shifting in power. They're taking over politics in many countries. The women are coming. The diversity is coming, and that will change everything. You know that about 80% of people who graduate from college around the world are now saying they would never, ever go work for an oil and gas company because it's a crime zone. It's akin to a crime. That's their— I'm just quoting, right? I mean, okay, so when we think about this, Now, many colleges are saying that oil and gas companies can no longer come and recruit there because clearly, you know, it's not popular. So that's changing the entire equation. What do you think is going to happen in 2030 when we have a 35-year-old prime minister of a country like Jacinda Ardern used to be in New Zealand or other countries making decisions on the future of the country? Big blue? Technology to help, big green on top of that big purple people. That's the agenda. It doesn't matter what religion or what part of the world you're from, because that is the ticket to a successful future. So digital revolution, of course, has 4 pieces. I won't bore you with that because you know all of that. But this is why we can safely say today, you're worried about jobs, information technology, biotechnology, energy technology, and AI, which is not a technology, is a research field, right? But let's put it in the same similar bag there. People are saying the next 100 unicorns, billion-dollar companies, they will be in climate technology, battery technology, agricultural technology, food technology, the intergrid. I mean, Plenty of jobs there, just not the old jobs. Here's one bottom line. This is very important depending on where you're from. If you work like a robot, a robot will take your job. If you learn like a robot, you will end up working for the robot. And I can't tell you how many people around the world today are learning like robots. This is pathetic, right? Because we go to school, we put this information in here. And later we say, oh, case study 47. But none of that works. It's all pretend. What really works is creativity, resilience, imagination, intuition, ingenuity. Things that are sometimes hard to learn at college. You learn them sort of inadvertently, really kind of on the side. But here I would say, can we have a good future? I would say totally yes, we can. But do we want to? Technically speaking, we have the ticket. We can solve water, food, energy, space travel, communications. We're getting to live older in the West, except for America for some reason. We're increasing our lifespan by 1/3 of a year every year. Think about that for a second. We're all going to be 120. That's 60 years on the cruise ship. You know, if you're— just kidding, forget the cruise ship. But as we're looking in this direction, it's really clear the next 10 years will bring more change than the previous 100 years. And it's not just because of AI. 6 king-making technologies. Of course, IBM is involved with most of these. So cloud computing, quantum computing, nuclear fusion, genetic engineering, geoengineering, these are all very large stories. If they work, then we have the ticket. And it seems likely most of them are already kind of working. So it's really, really powerful stuff. This one, cognitive computing, as IBM used to call it, I think, I'm not sure that's still being used, but the thinking machine and the machine that can actually learn, that is the biggest change in our lifetime. AI is really a general-purpose technology now. It's going to be used everywhere. And AI is also the next computing platform, as we heard this morning. So post-cell phone and cloud and mainframe, of course, AI is a computing platform now. You see what's happening to Google? For the first time ever, there's serious competition for Google because of something that they invented themselves, the transformer technology. And now AI, people are saying, well, why do I use Google? I can just say, hey, who should I get married to? And your AI will give you instant advice. This is actually very real in India. That's a different story. So on top of that, we have virtuality. Virtuality in different ways, the Meta glasses, the Apple glasses. So not only can we actually get all the information of the world and make sense out of it, we can also go into it. Right now it's $4,000. It's a little bit unaffordable for Africans, for example. But we have to use our imagination. Henry Miller said, one's destination is never a place. But a new way of looking at things. This is what I would like you to learn today. A new way of seeing things. I'm not talking about taking pills or wearing your glasses, but a penny-drop moment, a realization. In genetic engineering and of course bioengineering and nanotechnology, putting them all together here, we have this huge field that basically says we can We invent things that used to be in nature. Now we can engineer them or vice versa. For example, airplane fuel, spider silk. You see over here, meat and agriculture, artificial meat. You know, it sounds disgusting, right? But I have tried it and there's a lot of investment in this. In 10 years, a lot of that meat from the lab, parenthesis, half sort of fake vegan, you could say, this will become 1/10 of the price of regular meat, which is already pretty cheap in some places. And for example, airplane fuel, we'll be able to fly on airplanes without kerosene, without airplane fuel. That's a tall order. That's a very big shift that we have to take there. Another example, of course, is the climate. Basically, right now we are shifting the mega challenge from economics, that's the challenge until now, to climate. What good does it do to have great economics and economic gains and growth of GDP when the planet is crashing. I think everybody realizes that's kind of an odd proposal. So I'm going to create a world where my kids can live in a sort of contained compound that keeps them safe from everything else because they have the money, everybody else does not. This is a strange scenario with rich people buying their bunkers in New Zealand and, you know, Yes, strange, but solutions are here. The climate technology development curve in the next 10 years. I mean, look at this. Basically here, the next 100 unicorns. Precision agriculture, battery storage, climate fintech, fuel cell EVs. Mind-boggling. Today, if you have an electric car, you know, you can, if you're lucky on a lucky day, 200, 300, 400 kilometers if you drive fast, you know, it's, not that far, or if God forbid it's winter, right? But okay, in 5 years, 1,000 kilometers. In 8 years, 4,000 kilometers. In 10 years, once a year to fill up. I mean, think about that for a second. This is leaping technology. This is basically happening everywhere. So all that stuff is really, really powerful. Green is the new digital. If you haven't realized this, this is the number one opportunity for the application of technology, is to fix the mess that we made. So green is the new digital. In many ways, you could say sustainable is the new profitable. Because now stock markets are looking and saying, yeah, these guys actually care, or do they just make money? Are they just another version of Aramco or Meta, or do they actually care? Are they future fit? That is the key question. This is how people are going to look at the share price of IBM. Not what you promise to do and what your promise is about the technological future, but whether you care. Whether you're actually there to do the things that have to be done. So in this curve, it's really amazing. The next decade, by 2030, data everything, cloud everything, network everything, smart everything. Not intelligent in a second. Sustainable everything. That's the curse. And that's the mission. That's the ticket, right? Those are your customers. And so the real question is, we will have all the tech and the science, but will we have the telos? Will we have the wisdom to deploy it? Will we make the right political decision? Today, $2 billion are made in profit every single day from the oil and gas industry. That pays for a lot of things. Imagine if we shifted that money over and the subsidies of oil and gas to green. I mean, the world could explode in innovation, and this is what's going to happen. Everybody's pulling the plug on this. This is, of course, why this entire region is in such a turmoil to reinvent and to think of new ways of doing this. Point number 3, technology alone is not enough. Not to disappoint you, given that most of you are engineers and technologists. Technology is great, but technology alone, this world made with DALL·E, where we can exist in a composed world of technology, it could be entertaining. Yeah, clearly, I'm a geek. I like this kind of thing. But then we have our friend Marc Andreessen, one of the most famous investors in history, who invested in Twitter, Facebook, many others. He wrote a manifesto called the Techno-Optimist Manifesto. You should read it. Where he says basically, we should get out of the way of technology and just let it go forward and stop inhibiting it and just take the benefits. Here's a quote. No material problem including those caused by technology, cannot be solved with technology. Okay. Go to Silicon Valley, right? This is really interesting. It's like a social study. On the one hand, I would say, yeah, I kind of agree. But on the other hand, I'm like, no, that's just not true. Israel, Hamas, Gaza, Ukraine, Russia, the UN. You know, we're going to solve that with technology? No, there's no such thing. Technology solves practical problems. It doesn't solve cultural problems. If we want to have a good future, it takes a bit more than technology. We're not going to say, well, we're all idiots, so we're going to get an AI to be the president. Right? Yeah. Toaster for president. But logic alone is not enough. I mean, a world like this where we think about The brain, so to speak. Intelligence only. I mean, there's a lot of mapping in history, right? People with huge intelligence destroying the world. Countless examples of that. We need a bit more than that to create the good future. We found that out in social media. Social media was at one point a super powerful tool, a blessing. Now it's a curse. It's toxic, basically. But we're still using it. It's just kind of a strange thing. I stopped using it. So Mark Zuckerberg had to apologize to the US Congress, the Senate, for leading a company that makes Instagram. This is what happened. There's families of victims here today. Have you apologized to the victims? Would you like to do so now? Well, I'm sorry for everything that we have caused. And it was terrible. No one should actually go through the things that you're— Okay, imagine a CEO apologizing for what his company does for business. That's kind of a strange, a little bit tiny embarrassing, right? Let's hope we can spare this here for ourselves. But the financial performance is mind-boggling. I mean, they make more money than Aramco, the Saudi Arabian oil company. Look at the curve, the red curve. If we're going to live in a world where doing bad things makes good money, that won't work. And that's ending. I think Meta and also Aramco are companies that do things that we can safely say are poisonous, right? That's ending. That won't work anymore. It's timing out. And as good as Zuckerberg talks about his possibilities, right? We don't want to live in a world where OpenAI, for example, is the Tyrell Corporation If you know history of films, you know Blade Runner, right? The number one film, period. The first Blade Runner, of course, not the second one. You know, 1982, the Tyrell Corporation is the one inventing the digital humans, the replicants. That's kind of what OpenAI is becoming, if you haven't noticed. They're inventing digital reality, digital simulations, digital humans. This is what the CEO says. The coming change is impressive of human capabilities. The phenomenal ability to think, create, understand, and reason. That's what he wants to build. To which I would say, that's very ambitious. And I understand why you're saying that. But why do we want this? I want a machine to get the job done. I don't want the machine to reason. To question me, to try to understand my emotions or to fake a response to them. I think it's potentially quite dangerous. We have to think about where this is going. We have to apply our telos and say, why do we need a machine that can think and reason? Don't we just need a machine that can drive a car, fly an airplane, build a bridge? Do they have to reason for that? I think this is an important question when we think about the future. So based on number 4, the key question is no longer if and how something can be done, but why we should do it. This will fundamentally change your future at IBM. Anything can be done. That's the answer. You want to upload your brain to the internet? You can do that now. It's kind of expensive, but in 2030, you can. You can put your body on ice and wake it up again 100,000 years later. You can already do that. It costs $1 million. But all these things are becoming possible. Control the computer with a brain-computer interface. So here's the question: why we should do it, and who can we trust? Who's in charge? Who is mission control for humanity? In many ways, you could say IBM is a bit of a piece of mission control, right? In a practical sense. So with that comes a lot of responsibility. This thing from 10 years ago, can we do something? Is it too expensive? If and how, yada, yada, yada. This is engineering thinking, right? Like, we can solve the problem. But this is a question of direction, of purpose, of the different outlook of tell us why. Why are we doing this? And what is the outcome? Is the outcome going to be more money for those that run the platform? Or actually global benefit? And how do we do that? That question is larger. All those technologies, quantum computing and genetic engineering, are large things that will shape our world pretty much forever. So here's the thing. It could be heaven or it could be hell. And this has nothing to do with technology. Technology, I mean, I can take a hammer and go kill my neighbor, or I can build a house. We don't regulate hammers. Right? But when technology is super powerful, like nuclear technology, then yeah, we do have to think about how we can find a way to actually make this work. Because here's the challenge. Technology doesn't understand why we have considerations of the emotional kind, you know, the kind that computers don't understand, that is our main part of our lives. Right? Technology has no ethics. And I would say always technology by itself, of course, it's a machine. It does not understand when you say I like or no. It doesn't register. But technology companies must have ethics. Because we're making the reality happen with things that are happening. This is why I support the UN's initiative of the United International Artificial Intelligence Council. I call it the IAAIA, the International Artificial Intelligence Agency. Not that making more agencies would be the ticket to a lot of things, right? But hey, you got to start somewhere. I think this is a really good way of looking at that. Number 5, when we build AI, let's think about competence. This is your business case. That is, of course, also the case for the safe future. Why do you want to build a business case about machine consciousness? Machine consciousness means that we are going to be the second most intelligent species if machines have consciousness. Some people say it's actually AI, alien intelligence. Because if we have a machine that has more power than we have, we are number 2. Number 2 is not doing so well in most cases. Marshall McLuhan, famous philosopher, says it's the framework that changes, with technology in the '70s, that was. Not just the picture. This is the framework, right? AI is now a general-purpose platform. It's hard to call it technology. It's everywhere. Printing press, fire, internet, chip, computing. AI is that big. And it isn't going to be like Bitcoin or the metaverse, sort of, you know, I'll talk again about that next year. The shift from the GUI, the graphic interface, to the NUI, the conversational network. We're going to speak to computers. We're already doing that. This is a very, very big deal as we're shifting into this world from graphic interfaces to conversational AI. Here's an example of conversational AI. You mean AI Pin? It's a standalone device and software platform built from the ground up for AI. Engagement comes through your voice, touch, gesture, the laser ink display. Play the song, "How Music Makes You Feel Better." Weather, the date, how much protein? These almonds have 15 grams of protein. Oh, you get the point. This is called Humane.AI. The release was delayed, of course. This is very complicated. Reality of that is probably more promising. It's supposed to be $699 for this. And it's supposed to work offline too. So you can speak to it as if you spoke to a person. That's the idea. We're a little bit far away from this, but okay. So here's the reality. This is our human experience. When we do this, what happens? Like 500,000 things happen when we do this as humans. We feel things, we smell things, we have sensations, we remember things. Intelligence is the ability to solve problems. And will machines have intelligence that can solve problems? The answer is yes. Solve problems. Some problems. In certain situations. Consciousness, however, is the ability to feel things, That's a totally different cup of tea. And if I can do both, then I got the perfect combination. I can have a machine that can have an unlimited ability to solve problems, and I can feel things and we can put them together. That's consciousness, right? That's what the machine is supposed to be doing. In Indian philosophy, again, we have 4 different kinds of Emotional intelligence, buddhi, discriminative facility, manas, chitta, and ahamkara. This is 4 different kinds of intelligence that machines don't possess. Machines are processing. Thereby, they don't exist just because they process, right? They process information. It's a binary situation. So this is about competence, not consciousness, because in the end, really what's happening here is that we have to say, well, algorithms know the logic of everything, but the feeling of nothing. I think they could know the feeling of something, but of course it would be a simulation. It wouldn't be real. So this is a big problem because humans have 95% of our lives is the opposite. It's not about the algorithms. It's about the androrhythms, as I call them, the human things, right? Feelings, emotion, compassion, intuition, imagination. That's how you do business because people like who you stand for. That's how you do everything. Very important fact to remember as we're moving into this curve, we will have assisted intelligence everywhere. We have some automation, which is overhyped, but yes, we have augmented intelligence. Do we really need autonomous intelligence? I can guarantee you, for the IBM business, you probably won't. Because A, it won't work. OK? That's kind of a problem. B, to roll out the practical application of this means superseding ourselves. I vote for pursuing IA, intelligent assistance. Making machines that understand things to help us do our job better, to work with us, to augment us, and not necessarily think of it beyond that. Too much of a good thing can be a very bad thing. Alcohol, cigarettes, food, tobacco, right? Yeah. We have problems. Do we make alcohol and cigarettes and food illegal? In some countries, yes. But generally, we find rules around this. We find rules about how we make this work. That's the rule. A standard, just like we have with everything technology, like the IEEE has been doing for 50 decades to come up with standards. That's what we need for AI. So that brings me to point number 6. Humans are not machines. Organisms are not algorithms. To which I put a little asterisk saying, if they are, we certainly wouldn't know how to gauge it today. For today's purpose, I think this is very true. We are actually quite different than machines. If you look at biological intelligence versus digital intelligence, we have a situation where basically it's the binary logic of computing that may change with quantum, the cloud, right? That kind of thing all of a sudden becomes something else. All right? It becomes basically on the human side, something much more amorphous. Emotions, imagination, consciousness. Now, if you're going to send your kids to school in the future, where would you send them? To the human school or the technical school? Well, of course, if you could do both, that would be fantastic, right? But we're going to make a lot more choices to send our kids to the human school. Because everything else they can acquire in this process, right? Or vice versa. You know, it's all about making a mix of those two things. That's going to be really important for the future as we're going to the future like this. Sora from OpenAI is an app. It's not public yet, but I got some videos where you can actually do a text prompt and it will make a 60-second video for you. From historical footage. So here, Sora was told to make a Western town, and then another app called 11Labs made the sound, reinvented the sound of the motion picture soundtrack, all done in like 12 seconds. Games. Well, you get the point here. This was made by an AI. There was no photography involved, no licensing of images, no— and they made the sound. I mean, mind-boggling, right? Now, when you watch the next one, this one is quite interesting. It's the monkey. The prompt was, show a monkey that plays chess. Now, do you notice something on the chessboard? There's 7 fields on the chessboard, not 8, and there's 3 kings. So basically, the mission was fulfilled, made a monkey playing chess, but everything else was no. Chessboard with 7 fields? No. It's interesting, yeah, but it's no cigar, I would say, basically. It's cool, but has little veracity, has little context, has little causality. No real understanding. It just made a cool video. But it will get better. But is it going to replace real filmmaking? Hmm, no. You will get so tired of seeing this stuff, you'll say, "Oh God, another Sora clip, please." It's like mental fast food. And here we have a picture that I made myself where I gave a prompt saying, "Show left-handed writers creating poetry." Do you see any left-handed people here? They don't exist. And I did the prompt 43 times. In the end, it was show me writers without hands. This is the kind of— okay. So basically, frequently wrong, but never in doubt. So you could say, well, that really precludes any use, but it doesn't. Because there's lots of use where we can live with some of the doubt. And of course it will get better, but it's actually good for us to get the doubt because then we can make our own decisions. It can make really nice photos of people, by the way. This is how it upgraded me into a nice young-looking semi-astronaut, I suppose. An app called Lensa. But this is the image I like the best. It's kind of like, this is what it does. It's a power tool. I mean, programming, it's a power tool. It's also a kind of, you know, it will make it try to take shortcuts where there aren't any. You know, it could lead to potential laziness, of course. But here's the thing. When we look at this generative and conversational AI, maybe the less accomplished can do a lot more, and the really accomplished can take off to cyberspace. That's not a bad thing as long as you don't think it's like us, or you get lazy. I think the biggest factor here is that we get lazy. We just say, oh, let's program this code and send it to my boss. It'll be fine. No, no, that's not how it works. But it is a power tool. Okay? So for education and for ourselves, that means our pyramid is changing. We must move up the pyramid. This is super crucial for education because the lower part of this intellectual knowledge, some logic, that's computer turf now. And not all knowledge. I mean, I like to keep some of my knowledge, but looking stuff up, the computer can do that. I can do that anywhere now. I can speak to the wall and get a summary about the future of Switzerland. I don't need a futurist for that. I need to go up here. Tacit knowledge, understanding, wisdom, the human turf. That is the value of your job in the future. People are going to assume that you know all this data, information, and logic because you can get to it anytime you want and anywhere you want, anywhere in the world very soon. That is really what we need to think about. EQ and IQ, right? Emotional quotient and IQ. Intelligent quotient, to balance the two. Don't think for a minute, you know, India graduates 1 million engineers per year. Is that the ticket to their job? That's just one of the tickets. Then we have this pyramid that we have to deal with. It's not bad to be an engineer even in the future, but it's just one step in this pyramid. We have to think of taking this further. Do you know the drug Ozembic? Ozempic is a weight loss drug that's going crazy around the world. Used to have to inject it to lose weight, and now you can take pills. It's very popular with people who have weight problems. Okay. And some people are saying artificial intelligence is like Ozempic for human resources. In other words, you take the AI, you can fire people. Slim down the company. Nothing is further from the truth. This here is just a dream that many companies have about having less people. In the end, we'll always find other things for them to do because technology cannot do the things that we do very easily. The Moravec paradox: whatever is easy for a computer is hard for a human and vice versa. This is a very important story because in the end, this is the bottom line about No one thinks knowledge without wisdom is like water in the sand. That's a Malawi saying, and it's very important when we think about work. It's not bad to have water in the sand. The sand needs to get some water to grow things, right? But we need a little bit more than that. Number 7, augmentation, cognification is more beneficial than automation. We should focus on what we can do to augment people, not to replace them. Not to automate things that shouldn't be automated. As the graphic shows, brain-computer interfaces, language translation, cognification, making smart, augmentation, making more capable, automation to some degree. What we do not want is the last one, dehumanization. We don't want to think of people as data, and every person that's real gets in the way. That's kind of what we see in California with lots of startups saying, you know, let's take the human out. No, keep the human in the loop. That's the key. Even if it takes longer, because it makes something special. And there are situations where we don't need the human. Do we need the human to weld the car and move the car down the— No, probably not. But that doesn't apply across the entire chain everywhere. And we're going to need a little bit of protection here to figure out how we can actually go into that future. When we look at the slide again from Goldman, 44% of office and admin support could be substituted by technology. Yeah, that's okay. Whoever made that chart, I think it was Goldman themselves. I just remind of one thing. Tesla car next year will probably be 90% capable of autopilot. For sure, highway. We're probably only a month away from having Autonomous driving, at least for highways, like a Model S and Model X, can drive autonomously with greater safety than a person right now. It's safer than a person by the end of next year. Okay, here's the thing, of course, we don't really have a lot of self-driving cars, but in principle, it should work. And I think with AI, we're going down a similar path. In principle, it should all work. It'll take a little bit longer until we can actually say, okay, here it is, it's finished, right? As we're looking at charts like this, that talk about what's happening here. I got to wrap up, so I'm going to go for a fast forward here. Very important, ethics, right? That's point number 8. We need to think about everything that we do in technology now has ethical applications. Everything. Ethics is knowing the difference between what you have the right or the power to do and what is the right thing to do. And technology companies have a lot of power. And a lot of rights. So a lot of responsibility comes with that. We have to think about this. I'm very happy to see IBM signing up for this, the Tech Accord to Combat Deceptive Use of AI, just a couple of weeks ago, to help with election fraud and AI. IBM signed that up by itself. But this is a big deal, of course, right? Because if we're not careful, then AI may be used to deteriorate trust. Because it's about speed, not depth, about bias, about patterns, about machine reading, basically. That could destroy trust in other people, which is the worst thing we want. That leads to conflict. It could destroy democracy because of disinformation. These are all things that we need to think about when we think about the future. I'm going to skip this one because I got to get up to the wrapper here. Just to kind of show you the bottom line, we move into this 4P economics, 4 poles that are different than before. If I can get this, yeah, I was a little bit too ambitious on this. So let's just skip this one and go to the wrap-up. So what now? That's the big question. Every time you hear a futurist, that's the number one question. We think about the future. We think about the good future and the bad future. I think it's important that we say, yes, the bad future could exist, and the bad present exists. But Barbara Marx Hubbard said, "As you see the future, so you act. As you act, so you become." We must think positive about what we can do. We must think about the difference we can make. We must stop focusing on things that we can't fix. We must work on the things that we can impact, because the future can be made better. Than we think. This is a really important learning from the last decade that I found. And the future is something that is an act. It's a verb. It's not a noun. It's like something we do. The future is something that we can affect, that we can actually impact, that we can change. I'll give you a couple of bullets here. Buckminster Fuller said, we are to be architects of the future, not its victims. It's an important point. Now, we actually decide what's happening. So summarize what I said earlier, pursue competence, not consciousness with AI. If you want to pursue consciousness, that is an open chapter, but that to me is on another side of the equation. Ask why. Will this be good for the collective benefit? Not just for our software development or for our products or for our bottom line. Purpose, not feasibility. Take the technocratic oath. I will not do anything that will not serve the collective human benefit. I know that's going to be a tough one to think about because there's many discussions about this. Switch to what I call the full-stack economics. The single-stack economics is just profit and growth. The full-stack: people, planet, Purpose, prosperity. And of course, back to the tellers that I mentioned earlier. I want to just mention at the end an American Indian Cherokee saying, "The wolf you feed is the wolf that wins." The future you feed with your science and technology is the future that may win. We have to think about that. What future do we want to create with what we create? What we write? What do we want to make possible? The good future with a tiny bit of bad future that we can fix? What's our emphasis? So here's my motto for my future. It is awesome humans on top of amazing technology. That's the ticket. And I wish for you guys to realize this and hopefully see you again in just a little while. And the question is not with AI what it will do to us. Let's get rid of that question. But what we want it to do for us. That's the key question. What exactly do we need it to do for us? Thanks very much for your time, and I wish you a good rest of the event.