Futurist Gerd Leonhard - The Next 10 Years - RAI22 Concamin Conference in Leon, MX

A great pleasure to be with you here today. Thanks to Kon Kamin for bringing me. It's a great pleasure to the governor, the organizer, the president of the organization. Great pleasure. So I'm here to speak to you tonight about el futuro, the future. And it's interesting, you know, I live in Switzerland, in Zurich. I've been to Mexico many times, maybe 12, 13 times. And every time I come it changes a lot. I'm glad I get to go to Leon this time and not always to Mexico City. So it's a great pleasure to be with you tonight. So when we speak about the future, many people today are worried about the future and for good reason. The pandemic, the war in Europe, inflation, automation, technology, storms, climate change. If you speak today to kids, young adults from say 25 to 35, many people of that age will tell you that they are worried about the future. My own son, he's 33. When I talked to him about what I call the good future, then he says the future is not going to be good. Have you been asleep? So I'm here to tell you today that the future is better than we think. The future is something that we really have to understand and kind of picture it like this, a road that's moving very quickly and many of us keep looking in the mirror of the past. You know, what has worked in the past, we do again, we do it better. I'm from Germany originally and in Germany we love perfection. I know many German people are coming to Lyon. We love engineering perfection, but the future is not like this. And when I talk about the future, I'm not talking about predicting the future, like telling you what is going to happen. I would like you to be better prepared for the future. This is very important because the future isn't about tomorrow. It's not science fiction. The future is here. The other day I went to Palo Alto, California. I took a ride in a car, self driving car from Waymo. There was no driver in the front. Well, it works. There probably wouldn't work here, but we have to be prepared. And this is what I like to do. I call this the future mindset. Listening. You would be surprised how many government officials and people who run large companies don't use their ears to observe. This is what we have to do now because we can see the future happening all around us. I mean it's mind boggling what's going to happen. Take the car industry, good German traditional industry. Ten years ago I had a big event at one of the big German Car companies maybe nine years ago. And we talk about electric cars, self driving cars, car sharing, and everybody in the room was laughing. Nobody thinks electric cars were any good. Electric cars don't work. Now we have this. You see this chart here? This here is the combustion engine. That is the engine that is in pretty much every car. Give my clicker to work here. Please do come back. It's not happening. The black box is the traditional engine, the combustion engine. The red box is software. Basically, the economist says that in the near future, most of the car sales will not be with a traditional engine. They will be software based. And take this. If you look at a traditional car, there's a thousand pieces in the engine that companies make. The electric engine has 40 pieces. The rest is software. Think about the change in the industry that comes as if you're not prepared for this. I guarantee you by 2030, nobody in Mexico will buy a car with a gas engine. We will still have cars with a gas engine, people buying electric cars, and they will be so much cheaper. I mean, I love my traditional car, right? But I'm 61. If you're 25 today, the future is this, right? It's not on the left. It's called gasoline thinking, you know, it's electric. So one's destination, our future is never a place. It's a new way of seeing things. And that is so important, especially when you have kids or you run large companies because of responsibility, we have to start seeing things in a different way. So electric cars, cars that drive themselves, this is the waymo. I didn't have a video of myself, but you could clearly see that people are doing this. It's a trial, it's not real, like everywhere, but quite scary. And of course, last year I spoke at the international car exhibit in Munich, the iaa. And everything in the exhibit was not about cars. It was about mobility scooters sharing rental agreements, leasing, all kinds of new ways of doing things. In the car industry, the future of the car is not to have a car. Think about that for a second. Some of us will still have cars, of course, right? But the future is like this for the car industry. Like today. You may remember 20 years ago or even 10 years ago, to listen to music, you buy a CD or a tape right here. I used to be a musician. And what do you do now to get music? Play Pink Floyd, here's the music. This machine here is our brain and is our dating, is our bank, is our movie. Machine is our office. Think about this for a second. And this happened in 10 years, what will the world look like in 10 years? Well, it depends how we make it. Right. But we have very good cards for a good future because we're inventing all the time powerful science and technology to solve problems. But we do need the right policy, the right application of the science and technology. You're going to see cars like this. Well, they can't just be for the rich. I mean, if we're going to have a future like this, it has to be a future that's affordable to everybody. One thing is for sure, the future is not gradual. It's jumping. The Future is not 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. But, but you may know about Moore's law, Metcalf's law, Wright's law, the laws of physics. It's basically exponential. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, we're leaping seven years from now, we're going to be here 256. That's 80 times as much as today. If we have 20 years, 1 million times as different. That's our kids. Our kids are going to live in a world that's a million times as different as today if it keeps on leaping, which it does. So the future is kind of like this from Star Trek, right? It's warp drive, it's exponential. And it's gradually. Then suddenly. Don't think for a minute that you can wait and see what happens and observe. Then you're going to end up like Audi and Mercedes and BMW, who are now basically answering to the call of Tesla and Toyota. They're going to make it work. I'm sure they have good skills for that. But it's a steep price. We have to think about what is coming next, no matter whether you are in education or business or industry. So 30 steps I take linear here, I get to over there. 30 steps exponential. I get 26 times around the world. That's the difference. We're going into leap age. And Mexico, of course, has great cards for that future, but we have to get with the program of leaping. And this is of course a challenge to leave things behind, to move into the future, to the next level. So this is our city of the future. Connected, smart, sustainable, green, with all what you call the game changes. I'm going to talk about the game changes a bit more here. But these two things are exponential change. And this is the most important for you in the industry, convergent industries. That means industries that used to be separate, coming together. Health care and technology, manufacturing and technology, the car industry and technology. Everything is converging. The best business Ideas will be converging, coming together, creating new industries. Amazon just bought a piece of a healthcare company, Amazon, which sells books and everything you would ever want, you can buy on Amazon. Amazon will sell you health insurance and then Amazon will sell you a device that is your mobile doctor. I mean, this is obvious. So part of your prime subscription will be the doctor that you can ask questions. And Apple is planning the same. So in this world, there's 11 game changers. I'll only talk about some of them. The game changers are basically the first one is this big data cloud and the Internet of things connected devices. So in manufacturing, I'm sure you're familiar with this, the digital twin, connected devices, smart systems making things more efficient, higher margin, more sustainable, less pollution. Did you know that if we make all our industry efficient and our cities, we can save 65% of CO2. Now, if we were to switch the energy to sustainable energy, we could solve the problem. It's not just using solar energy, but also preventing pollution. The other one is intelligent Systems. You know, 20 years ago we used to joke how stupid computers are, how utterly stupid. And today computers are getting smart. It's called deep learning, machine learning. Not like us. You know, they're not smart like us. So the other day, a Swiss couple went to Rio de Janeiro and they arrived there, they rented a car and they asked Google Maps to take them to the hotel. And Google Maps didn't know what time it was there. They sent them straight to the favela and they were robbed and almost killed because they trust Google Maps. Google Maps cooked the shortest way straight to the favela. Not very intelligent in a human sense. So machines are getting smart, but they're not like us. Sometimes when you meet people, even only for 40 seconds, you know who the other person is. Somehow you figure out what it is. Very hard for computers. 3D printing, we talked about this for 50 years. Now you can 3D print your kneecap, you can have your dental implant printed at the dentist, you can have airplane parts printed. Very soon you go to a store of Nike or Adidas and you have your shoe printed. And I'll show you later, you want to print houses. Mexico is perfect for this because you have big spaces. Virtual reality. Remember that scene in Minority Report, the movie with Tom Cruise? He goes inside the data, he pulls out the data like this. This is going to be reality for people like doctors, lawyers, judges looking at complex things. The last one is the biggest one for you. Biomanufacturing and nanotechnology. We are developing Materials from the natural world that we can copy and use in production. Like spider silk. You heard about spider silk, which is from the spider, and now we make it in an artificial process. It's more flexible than titanium and basically it's a super material. Think about what happens when that comes into factories. Mind boggling the future. So here's the shoe with the spider silk that's not from a spider, but the same chemicals. And here's 3D printing from ETH Zurich. You can see here they printed a building using 3D printing that is basically CO2 neutral. So the BBC news said that roughly it's about 12% agriculture and beyond that is about the same than airplane fuel. What concrete creates. Right now we have around the world 40,000 kilos of concrete for every person alive. Can you imagine that? 40,000 kilos for every person. And we can't recycle it. That's a bit of a problem. So this would solve it. So if you're in construction, this is what's coming. Here's a 3D printed house. I know it looks ugly, right? But it's a house, right? This is Austin, Texas. This house cost $18,000 to print. And they do it in 26 hours. And it's too expensive right now. But imagine like this, you know, 5G Internet used to be what we paid. Something like, I don't know, $5amegabyte. Remember that? For the Internet on the phone. And now it's $5 for anything. It'll be the same for 3D printing. So that future is coming. The future of virtual reality, the digital twin, where we look at engines and we see them reflected. That's already in factories made by Siemens and so on. And this kind of holographic performance, machine maintenance, reduce the cost by 70%. Now, once we know, of course, this is right now a demo, right? So one thing is clear. The next 10 years will bring more change than the previous 100 years. And I'm not joking when I say this, right? Last 100 years, World War I and 2, the nuclear bomb, the Internet, all of that. The next 10 years, 3D printing, quantum computing, nuclear fusion, economic change to sustainable energy. If you're in the industry, you have to think about that. The next 10 years are not far away. They're basically much closer than ever before. And like I said earlier, many people are worried. I mean, all we see today is bad news about the environment, bad news about Russia, bad news about, you know, whatever the economy in the us Inflation. And the numbers are pretty astounding. Right, the natural disasters. I mean, we saw it here with the hurricane, 30 times as much already. The next numbers show how expensive food has become around the world. A lot of people are now starving because food, you know, wheat and corn has become expensive because of all the climate change scenarios. And this list, I'm going to blow it up a little bit. Okay, World Economic Forum. The risks that have worsened since the COVID crisis is 85 pieces on that list, like social cohesion, livelihood crisis. So if you were to read that, you would reach for the tequila glass quickly and say, I don't think I can think about the future. Doesn't sound that good. But here's the good news. As my colleague Kevin Kelly says, we should be optimistic. Not because we have less problems, we have a lot of problems, but we have a lot of power to deal with them. Capability, technology, science. The other thing that we're missing, capability is collaboration. And that is thing that technology will not fix. But we have all the tools. People are saying that if we spend 2 to 3% of global GDP, we can solve climate change, we can go back in 2040 and actually make the world better again. We have all the tools, we just have to spend the money. Just big topic, look at the stats here. All the innovations in the last 10 years. Robotics, genome sequencing, energy storage. I mean, the change is coming. Trillion dollar new innovation platforms. I mean, this is a gold mine for Mexico. This is your own business you can do here. If you get away from natural resources. This is about technology, it's not about natural resources. Natural resources are always going to be there. But we know what the issues are. Blockchain, genome sequencing, energy storage. That's the future. It's too late for Mexico to become the leader in technology, but maybe Mexico can become a leader in climate change, in climate technology. This is what's happening all around the world. Technology is getting cheaper and cheaper. Basically everybody can afford technology sooner or later, except for the iPhone. Of course the iPhone keeps getting more expensive. It's a stroke of genius. So we're now living in this world. Every old business is going, I would call it jokingly the digital transformer. So you end up with farming, smart farming, smart agriculture, smart energy, smart city, smart homes, smart transport, and maybe even smart government. Can you imagine that? Just kidding. Of course that will happen. It's already happening in Mexico. I'm quite aware of this. But think about this for a second. When everything becomes smart, what happens? The price goes down. Hopefully access goes up. If we allow poorer people also to have access of Course, and we have to bring them in. Industry flourishes, but we shouldn't overdo this. Connected. Everything smart, everything sustainable, everything that's good, but it shouldn't take the place of being human. For example, we could argue that we're going to connect everything like this in a smart city, but we don't want everybody to know what everybody else does. Tracking, privacy, that's a very big concern. Like we do on Facebook, right? Big problem. So we need security, safety, privacy. That is the counterbalance to the amazing technology. We cannot have technology solve problems, but create 50 other ones that would be bigger than the original problem. That's why I don't trust companies like Facebook. They make $150 million profits per day. Do you know how much the entire oil and gas industry makes profit per day? Take a wild guess. Two billion. That's the entire oil and gas industry. And Facebook makes 150 million, like a little bit more than 10%. And there's no supervision, no rules. So the challenge is this, really. In this world, there's great technology, there's good technology, bad technology, but technology has no ethics. Technology doesn't care about your emotions, your feelings, your love, whatever. Technology doesn't know that it has no morals. So if technology makes it more efficient to lie or to manipulate, it will do that. So this is why with technology, we have to have regulation and social contracts and balancing. Nobody likes regulation, but imagine if we lived in a world where everything was unregulated, that was powerful. Oil, gas, banking, telecom. Telecom is regulated, banking is regulated, media is regulated, the Internet. So that is, for example, this is the number one problem in America, right? That's because of what's happening with social media and the Internet. We have this polarization, distorting democracy. So I want to introduce you to the main theme of the speech. That's my three revolutions. This is most important for you guys when you think about the future. Starting with the industrial agricultural revolution, now we have three more. The digital revolution, you're aware of that. The sustainability revolution and the human revolution. This is very important because they're all happening at the same time. Now, consider yourself lucky. The digital revolution is still very much playing out here, pretty much around the world. Everything that can go digital will go digital. The sustainability revolution basically means now it's climate emergency. We see that every year, it's getting much worse, much quicker. And no matter what we like to believe in terms of how far it is away, it's happening quicker. So this is kind of creating the pressure to rethink Everything. Look what happened in America. Build back better from Joe Biden didn't make it. But two weeks later, $580 billion for the new bill to put money into sustainable energy. And of course, chips and all of these things, technology. So this is the key that's happening here. And with those things we have to keep in mind, the human revolution means that all of a sudden we're thinking, you know what? Humans are also important. The big reminder, culture. What is the biggest success factor in a country, in a company, or in your life? It is not technology, it's culture. Culture eats technology for breakfast. Can you collaborate? Can you work together? Can you innovate? Can you change? I can tell you I come from a culture Germany, where this kind of thing is hard because it's hard for us to make all these changes that quickly. So what I call the good future is dependent on working together on this human revolution. So here's the recipe for your future. Three things. Digitization, technology. I'll talk more about that. Decarbonization. I can tell you right now, if you're not going sustainable by 2030, you will not be at this event in 2031 because your clients will hate you, your consumers will hate you, the government will probably hate you as well, because that's where everything is going. We're going out of the fossil economy to the green sustainable economy. And yes, we'll always have oil and gas in some way, but we're not going to increase it. So we're going to a future that is very, very clearly in front of us right now. One point here, digital health care. In the COVID crisis, we used devices to connect with the doctor. And now this is the new normal. Now Apple is coming out with a device where I can have my body checked and send it to the doctor. And the doctor can say, hey, you should come in. There's a problem. That's trillions of dollars right there. Here on the reformation. The change of how we do things is, is all the things that are happening that we have to address. I call that reformation because it's a change of mind. It's not technological. Decarbonization, energy, protein, food, transportation and investing. Did you know that many companies around the world are now investing meat companies, food companies, in food that's made in the lab. You can grow meat now. It sounds crazy, right? You can grow meat in the lab and you can eat it. So just to show you some examples on this without getting you too scared on this, but I have a film on this later. But really what's happening here now? It's a realization that this curve, climate, technology, I'm going to zoom in a little bit more. That's the gold mine right there. All of these things are happening right now. Position, agriculture, battery recycling, the smart climate, fintech. So here's the bottom line. Green is the new digital. You want to be a leader, it's green and digital. So this is very hard to understand when you're looking at just, I think there's just now a new refinery that's starting in Mexico. Right. For the future, we have to think about what we're doing here. Can we do both at the same time? I mean, Larry Fink, who runs the biggest investment capital firm in the world, he says the next 100 unicorns, billion dollar companies will be in climate, technology. I mean, think about the opportunity here. What's happening? Mind boggling. So looking at Mexico, we have to get away from this idea of the future being about extraction, extraction of natural resources, extraction of people. Another thing we're switching to creation, inventing things, doing new things, collaborating, figuring out a new way into the future. Do you really think in 10 years we're going to live the same way that we do today? Fly the same way, eat the same way? We already know that's unsustainable. We got to think about our kids here too. Creation economy is what's happening. That's where we are going. And in this world it's all about this huge shift to ecosystems. And guess what? The money is larger than before, but it's in different places. So it's not that we can't make money, it's not that we can't grow. Of course we have to grow, but grow in different places. So that means we're moving from the ego economy that's here in transportation, oil, gas, cars, traditional shipping, to ecosystems, connected systems that work with technology to reinvent how we do things. Now you're thinking, well that's going to take a long time in Mexico, right, to bring that change. But it will not. If you look at other countries that are not totally developed yet, they're leaping, look at India. It's hard to compare Mexico with India, right? But people are leaping into this. A whole new bill in India that talks about new ecosystems of money, for example. I'll show you some examples. Investing is changing. If you want to attract money from foreign investors, ESG money, environmental, sustainable, governmental investment, you have to change the agenda. A new kind of investing. That's where the money is. That's where all the money Is all the funds are divesting now from the oil and gas industry in America. The, the ira, not the Irish people, the Inflation Reduction act, they're pivoting America. It's always hard to say what is next in America, clearly, but we're seeing this as a gigantic pivot, all of a sudden, flipping the whole story around. And why are they doing this? They know the future is green and sustainable technology that works. So here quite clearly, we have to think of another thing, and that is millennials, Gen Y, people between, say, 25 and 40, because they don't care anymore about the old promise that everything works just fine. Notice if you talk to your kids, they are juggling all of these problems, especially with COVID And this is what they want. They want to think further away from just a simple profit and growth to four people, Planet, purpose and prosperity. So this is starting to happen in companies. Unilever, Patagonia, many other companies. Even shale oil is shifting to a sustainable strategy like this. So I also want to encourage you to think about things that you used to think of are unthinkable. When I was in the music business, I went to talk to the record labels, Universal, emi, Sony, about the future of music. And I said, you know, the music will be in the cloud up there and I will have what we call a universal music device. Well, as a joke, right? And they said, that's ridiculous because if that happens, we won't make any money. It'll be free. And sure enough, it was free for a while and the record labels lost 70% of their profit. And now guess how many people are paying for music on the Internet? You guys are probably paying Spotify or Apple. 185 million people are paying almost $10 a month. That's 2 billion a month new money. So we have to think about what we think of. Unthinkable and where that's going. I'll start here. Hello. Okay, you can continue now. There we go. Unthinkable. With the climate change emergency, we're going to see things that were unthinkable before. It may take longer than Mexico for that to happen, but this is going to happen in Europe very quickly. Carbon tax. Every flight you take, mandatory carbon tax. That proposal has been around for. I know it sounds crazy, right? But what it does, it raises trillions of dollars to reinvest into the new economy. Look at this chart. We are on this chart, the red box and the blue box. Higher income, upper middle income. We cause most of the pollution in flying. It's not the Poor people that do that. We do all the flying. I am the worst, of course. I offset every single flight already. And you can expect legislation that says you have to do that for every flight. Mandatory. We may even see a carbon tax on eating meat. Now, that sounds crazy. Why would we do that? Because we can fund other things with it. So think about this. What is currently unthinkable becomes the new normal. And we learned that in the COVID crisis, right? Things that change because they have to. The valleys of Mexico filled with solar stations. You have enough room for this. It's not very pretty. You don't put this in Cozumel. You put it somewhere where you can harvest energy. This is becoming the new normal. High rises for growing farms and vegetables grown by robots. That's already happening in the Middle east in really hot places. Basically, you can do this kind of what's called vertical farming by having robots grow organic vegetables. I know it sounds crazy when you think about it, right? True science fiction. But it's already happening in the pharma business. Are we going to take pills? I don't know about you. Are you taking pills about cholesterol, statins and blood pressure and so on? We're not going to take pills like this in 2030. Guess not. Because we're going to have technology that tells us what's happening so we can prevent to get sick. That will not stop diseases, of course, but it will help prevent a lot of them. Whole different ball game coming our way. We're going to work in virtual places. This is Facebook, Oculus, we have the Horizon workstation. Many of you already kind of doing this, right? It's fancy. I'm not too much of a friend of that, actually, because I think we do need humans around us rather than holograms. But, you know, this is happening. Money is going digital. I think in the next two or three years, we're going to see a central bank digital currency in Mexico. We already see it in all these countries, including the Bahamas, where you can pay with digital money. I'm not talking about Bitcoin here. I'm talking about fiat money, real money backed up by the state bank that is 100% digital. Imagine what that will do for payments and also, of course, for corruption. Being able to track everything. 3D printing shoes, hearts, kneecaps, airplane parts, robots. I would love to play the soundtrack of Mick Jagger dancing with the robot, or rather the robot dancing with Mick Jagger. But if I do that, then I get barred on YouTube later, so I can't do that. But now we have robots that can do unspeakable things. Any robot that would have tried this would have killed everybody in the band 10 years ago. And now we have robots that do this in factories. Of course, you know, that's the reality. And now we have Elon Musk launching a humanoid robot just four days ago that can act kind of, well, I wouldn't say like a human, but you know, do human tasks. Think about that for a second. He says that robot is going to be $20,000 and be able to do all kinds of homework, you know, housework and cleaning and the mind boggles with imagination. So let's go back to this one, Learning from tonight. Go get some ears. You can't buy them on Amazon. You have to develop them. Pay attention. I can tell you the number one thing is not that people are stupid or don't know things, they just don't pay attention. It's right here for us to see. Question of our assumptions. So what's going to happen with humans and machines? Where are we going with this? Well, clearly this is what's happening, right? This device is my external brain. And if this device goes on here, I become kind of super human. I can see all of your LinkedIn profiles and I can see what you're thinking later, eventually, I guess. And yes, we've had industry 4.0, industry 3.0, and now we have industry 5.0, intelligent industry AI. This is of course the holy grail. If we can make machines somewhat understanding of what we're trying to do. Not intelligent like humans, but not stupid as before. So this robot, for example, shows human like emotions. It's programmed to reflect what humans think and how they work and could be used in hospitals and things like that. So if we define artificial intelligence, the founder of DeepMind said computer systems that turn information and data into knowledge, that is AI. That should scare us, right? Isn't that what we have, knowledge? I mean, look at this.

Dall? E2 is a system from OpenAI that can take text, like a koala dunking a basketball, and turn it into an image that never existed before. It can also create new variations of pre existing images through deep learning. Dall? E understands the relationship between text and images.

So here's the software where you type in a command and say, a penguin that uses an iPhone in Cozumel and it makes a picture. And now the COVID of Cosmopolitan magazine last month was made by a machine in 12 seconds. The machine wasn't paid, by the way. So these things are happening all around us. This picture was drawn by an artificial intelligence machine and won an art prize four weeks ago. It was a drawing of a scene in the mid ages. And what we see here really clearly is the definition of artificial intelligence. Knowledge without wisdom is useless. In other words, those machines can do all these things, but they don't really understand what it is. This is what makes us human, of course, is what we understand where we are going with this. So we're going to go into this world clearly in the next decade, everywhere. But here's the good news on this pyramid. The robots can cover the lower part, data, information, maybe a little bit of knowledge, but the upper part, the deep knowledge, the understanding, the wisdom, the consciousness. Very hard to do for a machine. This is why we will not have total unemployment because we have machines. You know how difficult it is to automate, for example, driving Waymo does it. But generally speaking, we don't see self driving cars in many places. It's very hard to do. So this is machine turf. This will be our turf. And this is what we have to learn. This is what we have to teach our kids. We have to teach our kids to have understanding, deeper knowledge, wisdom, purpose, humanity. And this is where we're going to keep our jobs. If you work like a robot, a robot will take your job. Remember that. And if you learn like a robot at school, you'll end up working for the robot because they will get smart enough very quickly. So important for us to realize where this is going and what the next step is in order to protect our humanity. So some final thoughts and then we have a short debate. First, when we look at our future, this is what's happening, right? We are surrounded by technology. I call this the Neoluvian man. You heard about the other famous Leonardo da Vinci man. Now this one is basically connected with our future, which means that as we go into that future, we have to emphasize the things that aren't about technology. Emotions, intuition, compassion. Why are we here? If it was just the exchange of information, we could do it through the screen on a zoom call. We're here to connect, to find something, to have empathy, consciousness, values. This is so important when we think about the future of industry. We can automate everything, but not what makes us human. Here's our ticket for the future. Awesome humans on top of amazing technology. So this is what we have to learn, what we have to teach our kids, and what we have to do with our products as well. And here's another kind of painful thing to realize. In many ways we have a world around us. That is essentially broken televisions, things that used to work but don't really work anymore. We have to realize the future is not an extension of the past. Your kids don't buy CDs, the kids of their kids will not drive a car. And many of their kids will end up eating the meat from the laboratory or from the organic high rise. The future is not the same than the present. It's different. It's not just a better version of the present. So therefore the end of oil and gas, that's not a big deal for us if we can find the next iteration of what it used to be. This is our natural evolution. Go back to what I said earlier. Our destination is digitization, decarbonization and reformation of our economic logic. That is of course the hardest part. So brace for this. We're going into a world of perma change. Perma change means whenever you think something is steady, it's going to change again. That is because the next 10 years have all these things happening at the same time. And what we have to do with that, we have to help each other go through that and also conserve energy. For example, I have recently stopped watching too much news because I like news with my work. But when I watch too much of it, I feel my energy drop draining because all the news is so much balance there. And also I would recommend do something that I do a lot is I do one day every two weeks that is media free. No phone, no television, no Internet. Media free day. Remember, offline is the new luxury. That's where we're going with this. So I'm going to print this out. I'm going to send you the PDF so you can look at this. But the paradigm shifts are mind boggling. The mega challenge isn't the economy anymore, it's climate. The mega shift is from carbon to clean transportation to electric. That whole list, I'll put it up on Twitter later so you can download the list. A bit hard to read from the back. And also our time is up. So lastly, don't wait and see. Wait and see means waiting to die. Because by the time you get to the end of this curve of development, you're already behind in putting resources in. We're moving to the creative economy. We're moving to a world that is green as a digital and we're moving to a world of ecosystems. Clicker is not very happy tonight, but will eventually appear. So a world where everything is connected. That's where we're going. That's. That's our future. And as I said in the beginning, the doors aren't closing because we have all these problems, they are opening. That's hard to understand because we kind of feel like the door is closing with wars and famine and food prices and pandemics. But they're leading to conclusions of change. We're going to change a hundred year old economy of fossil fuel into renewable economy and we're going to make more money with that than with the fossil fuel economy and we're going to have a better place. So going back to what I said in the beginning, the future is better than you think. And I think you have to believe in that when you're in the business of manufacturing industry and so on, what the future holds and where things are going. One other point as to the title of the event, right Inclusion. This is the key to creativity, diversity, inclusion, hyper collaboration, not hyper competition. Bringing the young people, the minorities and the women. You can see in the times of COVID the countries that were led by women did about 30% better in solving the problem. Just as a side note. So as we go in this direction, of course all about collaboration and where things are going and. And the film I made, the Good Future, you can watch it at thegoodfuturefilm.com is based on one principle by the famous futurist Buckminster Fuller, who says we are to be architects of the future, not victims. The future doesn't fall down on us. It's not made in America, it's not made in China. We make our own future, we make our own decision and our own path. And I think that's important to realize as as we're working to create new concepts and new ideas. So muchas gracias for your time and attention. Check out my book if you have a minute. It's available in Spanish. Thank you.

Agradecemos a nuestro conferencista y a continuation. Daremos initio con la mesa de dialogo. Solo les pedimos unos minutos en lo que nuestro personal de Apollo sub the dialogo de la conferencia Alejandra Gutierrez. There's the tubision.

Yes, good question. You know, it is the role of government to negotiate between business and science and technology to create a good ecosystem. So regulation, understanding contracts, working together and bringing everybody on the same table. Because a future that is just based on technology would not be a very human future. We need a future that is based also on what people need, which is engagements, relationships, experiences, not just what business needs. So I think the role of government is very important here. We're moving into a future that is where government has the balancing role to make it all work. The role of business is to make money. So when we think of the stock market as a different vehicle, not just making money, but also making purpose, making people and planet, like I said earlier, then we're talking about a whole different thing. So ultimately this will not happen without government asking for it. And I'm not talking about more regulation. I'm talking about an ecosystem that creates benefit for everybody. And that's where government comes in. So. Respect. Gracias. Yes. Well, I think the first thing to realize for any company is that business as usual is either dead or dying. So if you're lucky, you still have a business as it was 10 years ago, but you will not have that in 10 years. And you, you have to start looking for the next window. For example, picture the people who make clutches for the car in Germany. We're talking about 30,000 people here who make parts of engines. What's going to happen to them when we have electric engines? I don't know. So if they don't think 10 years ahead, they keep working on the better clutch and one day somebody says, contract over. So if you have a small, medium sized company, you have to look at the next window. What is the next product? What is the next innovation? Can you pivot? For example, many companies make small pieces of engines. Or we have to look at what is the next iteration. Can we get into the software business? Every company has to go more like this and think about new possibilities. And the biggest problem there is that if we have been successful, we think that the future is the same but faster. But it's not. If we are successful, the chances are very high they will be totally the opposite. So we have to start thinking and looking at the future. I always say to every company, you should spend 10% of your time in the future. And I'm not talking about watching movies or Netflix. I'm talking about reading, talking, going to events, developing the ears. When you are future proof, that's your success, whether it's a company or a country. A country that's future proof. Want to get a good example? Apart of course from Switzerland, is New Zealand a country that always looks at the next iteration. It takes a wider view. So I think this is just a question of the mindset. And the one thing about Americans, for example, is Americans have a future mindset. They're always thinking about the next big thing, making a big mess sometimes, but generally looking at the future, we have to learn from that. And we have to say we work today, we think tomorrow at the same time. Startup capital para losing. Yes, thank you. Some very easy questions. So basically the general number that I use for investing into the green future is 2 to 3% of GDP. That is the number like the military, same general number. If we spend that on the green future, we can create a whole new economy out of this. The World Economic Forum said there's going to be almost 100 million new jobs in the green economy from people who write programs, people who deliver things, people who monitor things, people who do activities there. And that is a fantastic opportunity. So the current crisis in Ukraine, Russia is kind of like a trigger to rethink our strategy. The dependence that Germany had, for example, on Russian gas is a major problem that was neglected for the last 30 years. So there are things that we have to look at that are painful. And yes, we will not have enough energy if it wasn't for traditional fuel right now. But the argument to make is that we have to take this opportunity to say next generation nuclear. I'm not fond of nuclear, but it is one of those things. Nuclear fusion, which is a major investment now, solar, bioenergy, biothermal energy, and all of the things together can create a net zero environment by 2030. And that will mean that we can create a whole bunch of new jobs, new industries, new everything around, everything that we do. And this is a decision that we make. It's not something that is sort of an optional thing. You know, five years ago you would sit around and say sustainability. We talk about that after dinner. So Bertolt Brecht once said, dinner first, then morals. It's no longer about morals about any of this. It's existential. And Mexico is in one of the worst places for the climate crisis, the heating up of heat waves and droughts and floods. So my view on that is that any money spent on going green and, and sustainable and circular is good money spent in the meantime. There's compromises that we have to make, which can also be painful, but that's really different for each country. So in Europe, we made a solid decision to go 100% net zero and sustainable, which I think is definitely a good course.

Persona. Comprender?

Yes. It's important to understand that we're not talking about a degrowth, you know, a no growth future. There's no such thing. Okay? People have children, people invent, people do things. We drive places, we want to meet, we want to fly. De growth, in my view, is not A good argument, but unlimited growth is killing us. Unlimited growth would basically 30 years, game over. That's kind of the estimate. So it has to be sustainable growth, circular growth, giving back growth, creating equality and all of those things. That is the ultimate argument. And I think we're sitting here today looking at this and saying we still have time. We have 10 years. We have 10 years to make this work. And climate change is going to hurt for 10 or 20 years, but we can solve it. We're not at the end of this yet. So the good news is it's urgent, but it's not over. That's what gives me hope. And as I said in my speech, the great thing is we have all the science and technology, the things that we're inventing every week. You would not believe nanotechnology to go into my blood to filter the cholesterol like little robots. Life enhancing technology that makes us live longer. Every week there's a new invention. We just need to put it into the right policy and organize our system so that it can come to fruition. Well, I always like to say that too much of a good thing is a very bad thing. Too much food will kill you, too much tequila will kill you, too much smoking will definitely kill you. But we don't make tequila illegal. Or smoking somewhat, I would say. Right. But basically technology is the same way. When we use technology for its purpose, it's a tool. When we use it too much, it's a torture. Technology is a fantastic tool, but a terrible ruler. So if we allow technology, for example, to tell us what to do, in the sense of, for example, artificial intelligence telling us who is good person and who can be in jail, like in China, this supervision of everything, then we end up in a place where technology is the dictator. But on the other hand, we want to use technology to make things better. So this will be about compromises. Like for example, we're going to need a global council of artificial intelligence. And I think, I keep saying this to government. I think every government needs to have a minister of the future. Maybe something for your state, a person whose job it is to bring the future. Only that in dubai they have 30 ministers, they have a minister of AI, they have a minister of the future. And get this, they have a minister of happiness. It's a woman, of course, not to say anything about that. But anyway, think about this, having somebody that actually is dedicated to the future. Because the thing about the future is we think about the future as tomorrow. The future isn't tomorrow, the future is here. We just haven't noticed, we just haven't paid attention. And if we keep doing this, then basically we'll keep going. And one day the future just kind of washes over us. And this is important to understand because right now we're in the 10 year window of getting it right.

Muchisimas gracias. Quero que fue una platica muy Enrique.

Yes. I mean, traveling and meeting and going places is a human thing. It's like food. Basically. We're not going to stop traveling. We're not going to stop going places because that's what we are. So that's good news. The other news is airplane travel has become very cheap sometimes and we're not paying what it actually costs. So the side effect of travel, 12.8% of global pollution comes from travel, tourism and hospitality. 3% from flying. 3% of global pollution is from flying. But we have solutions. Sustainable airplane fuel, hydrogen trains, like in Europe. We're going on the train now. The train is 100th as much of CO2 than the airplane. And so there are solutions. We're going to keep traveling. What's going to happen? I'm very sure about this. I don't know about Mexico, but general, we're going to see mandatory tax for each flight. So you will pay a tax when you buy a ticket. It may be as high as the ticket itself, depending on your income. It's going to hurt me a lot. Not because of the income, but because of the flying. But I'm volunteering. We're happy, and I do that now. I pay your tax. Because when we pay the tax, we can raise hundreds of billions of dollars to solve all the problems around it. Making airplanes more efficient, for example, can save 50% of CO2, replacing airplanes like Leon. From Leon to Mexico City, come on, now we can take a train, a nice train, that will be better. So these kind of things are happening. I think really what we're looking at is multimodal transportation and airplanes are going to adapt to this. So that's already the first planes that you can look at for hydrogen in small cities with a reach of 50 km that you can take that are also automated. It's already here. So innovation is happening. But the thing about innovation is it does not happen without pain. When we have pain and people are saying, you can't do this anymore, then we start. So take the pain away and start before it happens.