Laïcité, égalité, fraternité? France’s secularism bill

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Hello and welcome to the Intelligence on Economist Radio. I'm your host Jason Palmer. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. Not so long ago, Taiwan's economy looked to be in a death spiral. Now it might even outpace China's. A sharp pandemic response is partly responsible, but the country was already making savvy bets to navigate the waters of global trade. And it's almost time for the office Christmas party season. Things are going to be different this year. Our columnist discusses how managers can keep up employees morale beyond the bland seasonal encouragements and tedious zoom drinks. But first, Today, France's President Emmanuel Macron will unveil a new draft law designed to tackle religious extremism and to bolster the country's foundational idea of secular government. The proposed legislation follows a series of terrorist attacks. In October, France was rocked by the beheading of a schoolteacher named Samuel Paty in a suburb of Paris. Thousands took to the streets to pay their respects. Just two weeks later, more sadness and bewilderment. Three people were stabbed to death at a church in Nice. In the wake of these tragedies, Mr. Macron launched a crackdown on what he described as in Islamist separatism. He was accused by some at home and abroad of stigmatizing Muslims. But in the draft law that'll be presented to the French Cabinet today. There will be no mention of Islam or any particular religion.

The draft bill that Emmanuel Macron will unveil today, I think is really about reinforcing what are, in effect, the founding values of France.

Sophie Petter is our Paris bureau chief.

He's trying to strengthen French secularism and to reinforce all the laws that limit religious influence on public life. So in doing so, he's trying to curb any form of radicalization that might lead to incitement to hatred or to violence, or infringe on things like women's rights.

And do we have a sense of what exactly is going to be in the bill?

Yes, it's a long list of measures. For example, anybody who now would like to homeschool their children will have to request permission to do this. We had expected a ban on homeschooling, but this has been watered down. And the idea there is to stop any form of clandestine radical teaching at home. The law will make it easier for the government to inspect or even close down places of worship that don't respect republican principles. And that is a measure that would apply to mosques, but it would also apply, for example, to evangelical churches. There's one particular measure that was introduced as a direct response to the heading of Semri au Petit, the school teacher, and that's a privacy measure, which will make it illegal to put any information in the public domain that enables somebody's home address or where they work to be identified in a way that could put their life at risk. So that's a direct response to the fact that Petty was killed after being identified online by an individual who then went to seek him out and beheaded him.

And given that this law arises in the wake of Islamist terrorism, how pointed is it at France's Muslims?

Well, originally, President Macron referred to it as a law to curb what he called Islamist separatism. But it's interesting to note that the bill no longer makes any reference to the word Islam. I think that the President is trying to preempt any charges of Islamophobia or trying to stigmatize Muslims, and he's really push back against that accusation that's been made in the American press. In particular, I think that the government is trying not to single out any religion. It's trying to stress that it's reinforcing French values and secularism.

And do you think that particular framing will put worries that it is aimed pointedly at France's Muslims to rest?

The reality is that most of the clashes over French secularism concern the accommodation between the French state and Islam, and that is why it is bound to reignite the charges that have been levelled against France, in particular by Turkey or even Pakistan. But I think it's important to say that some of the Muslim groups in France have been supportive of the new measures because they are as concerned about extremism as anybody else is in France. And in particular, if you look at some of the specific measures in the bill, one of them is about banning family doctors from issuing virginity certificates. Advocates this is in order to protect young girls or women, particularly in cases of forced marriages. And so, from the French point of view, this is seen as a question of protection of liberty, not of imposing some form of religious discrimination.

And is that how the public in general will perceive it? Do you get the sense that there will be a lot of support for this draft bill?

There is just a lot of concern, I think, about terrorism in France and Islamist terrorism in particular. The beheading of Samuel Petit sent an absolute shockwave through France. I think it opened people's eyes. France has been battered by a lot of terrorist attacks in the past five years, but this one in particular really drove that message home. And I think that that has made people alert to the fact that there is an ideological war for the minds of young people in France. And it is therefore likely that this bill will be supported by most French people who think it is time to clamp down on that ideology. And they make a very clear distinction between doing that and between any form of attacking either Islam or Muslims in France, which is not the point of this bill.

But, as you say, Mr. Macron has drawn criticism internationally.

I think outside France, there's a perception that secularism is a form of intolerance. But what's interesting inside a country is that a recent poll among Muslims suggested that 87% of them actually support a law that was passed in 1905 which separated religion and state. So I think there's a lot more understanding and even support for the principles of French secularism in the country than there is perhaps outside.

And so what next for this bill and this broader push, do you think?

The bill's already been modified very slightly. Four articles of it by the highest administrative authority in France. So now it can go to Parliament. This won't happen till next year, early next year. It'll start with a reading in the lower house, and then it will wind its way through Parliament. So there will be plenty of opportunity for amendments and also for the public debate to continue well into next year.

And so for all those people whose eyes were opened by Samuel Paty's beheading, do you think they'll be satisfied that.

The government is doing all it can to defend French values?

I think it will help people believe that the state is trying to do something to curb the spread of Islamist ideology in France. But I think there's also a recognition, given how many terrorist attacks France has been subjected to, that this is very difficult to do. It's not something that happens overnight, and therefore this is really just the beginning. It's certainly not the end of the problem.

Thank you very much for your time, Sophie.

Thanks, Jason.

You can get a lot more of these views on the ground from our international network of correspondence by subscribing to the Economist. Get a great introductory offer@Equality.com IntelligenceOffer the link is in the show notes.

Taiwan, with its more than 10 million people, is about the size of our state of Maryland.

Taiwan's industrialization push got underway in the 1960s.

To handle the constantly increasing flow of traffic, the provincial government is rebuilding roadbeds, highways and bridges, and improving equipment and station facilities.

By the 1980s, it was one of Asia's tiger economies. But come the millennium, the island's rapid development looked to be over. Many of its best companies had moved to mainland China, wages were stagnant, and the population was aging rapidly. That slide, though, seems to have been turned around. In a year when almost every other economy is suffering, Taiwan's is one of a handful that's expected to grow.

Taiwan is one of the world's best performers.

Simon Rabinovitch is our Asia Economics editor.

There's a chance that it might even grow a little bit faster than China's economy, and that would be the first time in decades.

And how has it managed such a turnaround?

The most obvious thing to note is that Taiwan did better than pretty much any other place in controlling COVID 19 at the end of December, when China first reported that there was a mysterious pneumonia outbreak, Taiwan immediately began to screen passengers coming from China. That meant that it was actually able to more or less contain Covid without having any kind of sweeping closure of schools, offices or shops. It did, of course, have some cases of the disease, but it then had a very, very fine grained tracing system, nearly universal mask wearing. And so for months now, life in Taiwan has basically been normal.

And so that economic story is just tied up with the pandemic response.

Yeah, so I mean, obviously, you know, being able to have restaurants open and offices open and schools open has been a key boost for growth this year. But it is more than that. First of all, Taiwan has a very export economy. And it so happens that the kinds of things that Taiwan produces are perfectly aligned with global demand in this Covid struck year. So it's very strong in electronics. And then if you think of what people have been buying this year, it's been headphones, it's been laptops, it's been iPad type devices. And Taiwan, from producing tiny semiconductors up to giant computer servers, delivers exactly what's needed for a work from home economy. And so whereas global exports are down this year, Taiwan's have been growing quite strongly. That's been a big boost.

And so as the pandemic starts to wane, I mean, how does that affect the dynamic in Taiwan's economy?

Well, there is one important fundamental change that goes deeper than anything related to Covid and that is that Taiwan has actually been a beneficiary of the tensions between China and America. One of the reasons for pessimism about Taiwan previously is that going back to the early 2000s, so many Taiwanese companies and investors had uprooted, opened up factories in China. There's been a lot of concern about the brain drain young Taiwanese feeling they have to go abroad if they want to find good jobs to do. But as the trade war heated up, a lot of Taiwanese firms felt that they had to locate elsewhere apart from just China. And going back to Taiwan, where a lot of them had idle capacity, was one of their big destinations. And so in the last couple of years they've used up the idle capacity and investment in new capacity has begun to increase. And there's much more optimism now that the increase in investment is not just a one off thing. This is something that's sustainable and that puts Taiwan in a more solid footing.

And so how far can that go then? How big an economy could Taiwan get?

Well, I guess the first point is that there's going to be clear limits to how well Taiwan can do because there are a whole series of challenges that it faces. And these were the challenges that underlied a lot of the pessimism about it. Taiwan, being an island country, has a very finite supply of land, water, power, workers, and of course the talent. As I alluded to before, on top of that you've got a population that this year will have peaked. According to official data, it looks like that this will be the first year that Taiwan's population begins to shrink. And then finally, the factor that Taiwan is most worried about is its competition with China. And China is obviously very set on at some point trying to reunify with Taiwan. And one of the big tools in its arsenal is economic leverage. And so it's trying to make life difficult for Taiwan. It's trying to attract the best Taiwanese talent into China, and it's trying to develop companies that will be able to do head on competition with the best from Taiwan as well. So all of these factors mean that the course ahead looks better for Taiwan than it did a few years ago, but it's still not smooth sailing.

And what are the long term prospects.

For a country that is competing with and reliant on mainland China in an increasingly uncertain world of trade?

Right.

So I think if you stack the two of them up side by side, it's clear that Taiwan is the underdog. China is a country of nearly 1.4 billion people. Taiwan has just over 20 million people. The saving grace for Taiwan so far is that China needs Taiwanese products, especially its semiconductors, especially those that are churned out by tsmc, the world's most advanced maker of semiconductors. China needs those products as much as Taiwanese firms need the Chinese market itself. And as we've seen with the trade war, a lot of companies, not just Taiwanese companies, but foreign companies as well, are looking to develop their supply chains away from sole reliance on the Chinese market. Taiwan is a very good base for manufacturing. So I think the way forward for Taiwan is not to be one for one competitor with China, but to try to identify those really high end niches where a country with a small population, but a highly, highly educated population with tremendous engineering talent, tremendous innovation abilities, is able to make itself indispensable. And so a couple of the big focuses now are medical devices, renewable energy, battery storage. And so what's interesting is that after years of pessimism, you actually see a lot more optimism and confidence about what the future might hold.

Simon, thank you very much for your time.

Thank you, Jason.

Novelty ties, misguided Secret Santa gifts, and cheap Prosecco. The allures of the office holiday party aren't always that alluring. But this year, with offices closed and parties canceled, there's little chance to unwind with colleagues. Managers will have to find new ways to serve up the holiday cheer.

Normally, people would have put up decorations, some lights, a bit of tinsel, those Christmas cards that arrived at the office, and then you'd have some sort of drinks activity or lunch, and sometimes it would be a mammoth party and an off site occasion. All of those things are deeply collective and they're not possible, of course.

This year and why is it that.

Bosses take these kinds of festivities so seriously anyway?

Well, there's a couple of reasons. First of all, there's this tradition, not just in Christian societies, of a celebration of winterval as it were. So the winter solstice means that suddenly the days start to get longer again. We're through the darkest part of the winter and of course this is very close to the calendar year end. So those two things together have made this the premier celebration in Western societies.

And I suppose the festive cheer that comes with that is all the more.

Needed this time around.

Yes, exactly. This has been a dreadful year, hasn't it? Isolation has inevitably had an effect on people's psychology. A survey of Britain's found that almost 70% of them had found their mental health affected in some way by the pandemic. And in a way, you know, the early parts of the pandemic were probably the easiest because when we were first locked down it was the spring turning into summer and it was possible to work in the garden or at least take a stroll during work hours. Now days are very short, you're inside most of the time. Many people have been isolated from their families, from their work colleagues for nine months and many people have been laid off work or on part time work. So you'd think there's all the more need for a way to cheer us all up. But it's extremely difficult when everybody can't meet in many countries. So it's going to be a struggle this year to find anything to cheer people up. And the other thing that companies often do at the end of the year when they can, is give a Christmas bonus or a pay rise for the following year. Well, given the economic havoc that's been caused by the pandemic, that's difficult too.

But I mean, what about COVID safe.

Activities, online activities maybe. Can they help in this era to bring the festive cheer that's otherwise missing?

Well, they can help a bit, but I don't think online zoom drinks or anything like the same substitute for real life drinks. I don't think that's one innovation that will survive a return to work. Online quizzes have become popular over the pandemic. Online karaoke I've seen suggested some firms are sending out cooking kits so that you can all cook the same meal and share it together online. It still doesn't sound quite the same, does it as standing around with a plate of cocktail nibbles and chatting. But even a quiz which some people really enjoy, I'm doing one tonight, doesn't suit everybody. Not everybody wants to be judged on their knowledge of who won the FA cup final in 1953 or who's the president of Bolivia. Some people find either the information is too trivial or it shows up their ignorance.

But the one thing that the Zoom get together could still give you is the annual speech from the boss, the rousing words about how successful everything's been.

Yes, I think those are always quite difficult to pull off. It's very hard to be motivated by bland, indiscriminate praise, and that's as true over Zoom as it is in real life. What people really need is individual praise. So that's, I think, the big test for managers going into this holiday period. You need to be messaging those people who've been working from home and you haven't seen to say well done on particular things that they've done over the last nine months and to check in on how they're doing. Given that we know that mental health has been affected and that may mean a lot more work for managers to try and figure out something to say to everybody. But I think it's very important because it may still be two or three months before most of us get back to the office. So that social capital we built up in previous years, the connections with each other has been sort of deteriorating, been eaten away over the last nine months, and managers need to top it up.

Philip, thank you very much for joining us.

Thank you very much, Jason.

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. If you like us, give us a rating on Apple Podcasts and see you back here tomorrow.