Last-ditch pitch: America’s campaigns conclude

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Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Rosie Bloor.

And I'm Jason Palmer. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

Our correspondent recently took a fantastic trip to the Nomad Games in Kazakhstan. But he wasn't just there to toss around a headless goat carcass. He was also asking why the Turkic states are increasingly banding together.

And Britain's vast network of canals isn't much used for freight anymore. But plenty of people call it home. We look into the rising tide of renters who take to the water, and why canal boat living won't be quite so cheap for long. But first—

Well, it's been an exhausting campaign, but the final push is particularly exhausting for both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, charging around the swing states and trying to do everything they can to eke out the final vote that might push them over the line.

Daniel Franklin is our senior United States editor.

Something like 75 million people have already voted, but tomorrow many millions more will be going to the polls, and that's what now matters. First of all, in the final days of campaigning, there's the usual frenzy of attempts to fire up the base of both parties. We could start with Donald Trump going into heartland Democratic territory at Madison Square Garden with a big rally, and a controversial one as it turned out, because the warm-up act made some racist remarks.

Like, I don't know if you guys know this, but there's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. Yeah, I think it's called Puerto Rico.

Which the Harris campaign were quick to seize on, but then there were embarrassing moments on the other side when Joe Biden seemed to call Donald Trump supporters garbage.

They're good, decent, honorable people. The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters.

And the Harris campaign had to try to row back from that, as well as the president himself.

I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for.

A couple of things that have been striking. One is where they're campaigning. Most of it has been in these few swing states. But it's also, I think, the extreme language that Donald Trump has been using to fire up his base and often using quite violent language to do so.

And to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. And I don't mind that so much.

In particular, he attacked Liz Cheney, prominent Republican who's been supporting Kamala Harris, critic of Donald Trump.

She's a radical war hawk. Let's put her with a rifle standing there with 9 barrels shooting at her, okay? Let's see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face.

And it's that sort of violent rhetoric that alarms Democrats but seems to fire up the Republican base. I think one of the fascinating aspects of the last moments of the campaign is the focus on key demographic groups. Donald Trump has been really going after male voters, trying to make sure that as many, in particular young men, turn out to vote for him. They support him disproportionately. At the same time, Kamala Harris has strong support among women, and Donald Trump has made some comments that the Harris campaign was quick to pounce on.

I'm going to do it whether the women like it or not. I'm going to protect them. I'm going to protect them from migrants coming in. I'm going to— He was hit by some of the strongest, not human beings, women.

I think it's pretty striking how now, as the campaign moves to its end, Donald Trump is once again talking up the idea that this election could be stolen.

And then they accuse you of being a conspiracy theorist. He's a conspiracy And they want to lock you up. They want to put you in jail. The ones that should be locked up are the ones that cheat on these horrible elections that we go through in our country.

He has spent some time accusing Democrats already of trying to steal the election, and that prepares the ground should he lose for him challenging the result and getting his supporters out to complain that although he's lost, he didn't lose, as it were. As of course he did 4 years ago. Meanwhile, on the Harris side, her campaign tries to present a much more upbeat image as opposed to the doom-laden message of the Trump campaign. And perhaps a good illustration of that was her surprise appearance on Saturday Night Live, where she indulged in a humorous sketch.

It is nice to see you, Kamala.

It is nice to see you, Kamala. And I'm just here to remind you, you got this.

Because you can do something your opponent cannot do. You can open doors.

Even poking fun at herself for her laugh, which is something that the Republicans, and particularly Donald Trump, have frequently made fun of.

But let's look at the bigger picture here. How much does all of this last-minute campaigning matter?

We've been talking for weeks, for months, about how close this is and how little things have Well, it matters because it's so close, and a few hundred or thousand votes either way could conceivably make all the difference in the swing states. So there's this frenzy of activity both to persuade people and to get out the vote, and there's an eagle eye on the polls to try to pick up any tremors to see that it's actually shifting things one way or the other.

At the mention of polls, though, what is the story at this stage? It all seems— well, I mean, everyone's saying too close to call, or should be wise enough to do so.

Well, that is the main story, that if you look both at the polls, they move around a little bit but within very narrow margins, and all the 7 swing states seem extremely close within the margin of error. If you look at the forecast models, including our own, they're basically tied. There was one intriguing poll over the weekend that raised a lot of eyebrows, and that's a well-respected poll in Iowa, Seltzer poll, that has not just been good in the past at predicting the outcome in Iowa itself but has seemed to be a better predictor of results elsewhere as well in terms of the scale of the swing. And that poll showed Harris beating Trump by 3 points, and Iowa is Trump territory. It's not a state that the Democrats would expect to win, but if that result were replicated across the country, it would point to a very big Harris win. Of course, the Trump campaign is quick to say that's an outlier, it's not accurate, and most of the polls, it has to be said, are still showing a very, very tight race, a nail-biter right down to the finish.

And without wishing to push you towards hyperbole, there is a lot of talk about this being the most consequential election in, in history, in the past 100 years. What's What's your take on that?

Every American election is consequential. Every one matters enormously, not just for America but for the world. But I think there is a sense that this one is particularly important because the contrast between the candidates is so great and what they represent. And there is immediate consequence for other parts of the world as well, particularly places like Ukraine, where the reverberations will be swift and enormous for America's allies and for the sort of democracy that America is going to have in future.

But specifically coming to that American democracy question, what's your take on that?

It's true to say that American democracy is being tested in a very severe way. It is, and has long been now, a 50-50 nation. But it isn't necessarily a nation that trusts the rules by which this democracy is being played. And how well can the system stand up to this sort of extreme test? That is something that is very much in play in this election.

Well, look, I know that inside The Economist we have a game plan to cover whatever it is that comes our way. But talk me through it. How are we going to cover all of this and the aftermath?

Well, if you go to economist.com or our app, you'll see very frequent updates on the progress of the results as they come through, and we'll have quick analysis from our correspondents who are based around key areas of America. Our data team are going to be looking very closely at the early indications and looking, for example, at county-level results, how they compare with last time. To get a sense of how things have changed and whether that can be projected to get a sense of how the critical states are going to be playing out as the voting may take some time to come in. We could get some early signs of what that will mean. So we'll be doing our best to get the most insightful analysis as quickly as possible to all of our readers and listeners.

And for our part here on The Intelligence, coverage will continue throughout the week. We've got a very special episode on Wednesday, a co-production with Checks and Balances the day after voting ends. With any luck, be speaking to you again. For now, thanks very much for your time, Daniel.

Thank you, Jason.

Here in Key West, we were out before it was in. In this open and inclusive paradise, you can be yourself. Make new friends and savor our live-and-let-live vibe. With LGBTQ+ friendly accommodations, our legendary nightlife, and year-round activities and events, it's always a good time to come as you are. Key West. Close to perfect. Far from normal. I went to Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, to attend the Nomad Games, the Olympics of the Turkic world.

Piotr Zelewski is our Turkey correspondent.

You have disciplines like Kokpar, which is a game that involves the tossing round of a headless goat carcass on horseback. There's obviously some horseback archery. There's all manner of wrestling games and competitions you would not find at your summer or winter Olympics elsewhere. And the atmosphere, the vibe is generally far different. You'll see smoke rising from vats of fried rice and grilled lamb, dozens of white yurts pitched around the grounds of the games, people in traditional dress, all manner of Turkic music. It's quite the scene. They started in 2014, and at that time they were more of a boutique affair. You had teams from 19 countries competing. In the latest Nomad Games, you had teams from 89 countries. The games have become more global, but in terms of character, there's still a Turkic project at heart.

Tell us precisely where the Turkic world is. What part of the world are we talking about here?

The Turkic world, which has a population of roughly 170 million people, spans the fringes of Europe, that is to say, Western Turkey, and most of Central Asia. So that's Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, and spills over into Russia with its large Tatar, Azeri, and Kazakh minorities, and China, home to some 12 million Uyghurs, who are also a Turkic people. The idea of a common Turkic identity was previously suppressed by the Soviets and remains something of a boogeyman for a bellicose Russia. But these days it seems to be flourishing.

So I think you're here to tell me, Piotr, that these countries are actually organizing.

Yeah, these countries are banding together, especially under something called the Organization of Turkic States, which has gradually evolved from a talking shop for regional autocrats into a vehicle for cooperation in areas ranging from education to healthcare to foreign policy. Recently, the OTS agreed on a joint alphabet roughly shaped around the Turkish Latin alphabet, which is something of a big deal as a lot of these countries are transitioning away from the Cyrillic alphabet, which was imposed during Russian and Soviet rule. And that speaks to a rather important truth, and that is that for the member states of the OTS, this group and cooperation between Turkic states more broadly is becoming a means of counterbalancing balancing Russia and other regional groupings dominated by Russia. Trade between these countries is increasing, and so is anxiety about Russia, especially in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine.

So, Piotr, we've gone from goat carcasses and joint alphabet to blocking Russia. Tell me what this organization actually wants to do in practice.

These countries are now trying more than ever to diversify away from Russia. Their dependence on Russia remains very strong in areas like security, like trade, like energy, They are also members of Russian-led groupings, but they see cooperation between them and also cooperation with Turkey under the OTS, but also independent of the OTS, as an alternative to Russia.

Isn't trade within the bloc actually increasing because Russia's been cut off?

Russia has not been cut off from these countries, and they continue doing a roaring trade with the Russians. But at the same time, they have found many of their export routes through Russia cut off. Due to Western sanctions on Russia, and that has revived interest in alternate trade routes, including something called the Middle Corridor, which is a trade route that connects the region, meaning Central Asia as well as China, with Europe by way of the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. Since 2021, the volume of trade through the Middle Corridor has increased by fivefold.

We're in a world now where people often feel like they have to pick sides, and the thing that seems to stand out to me here is that Turkey is of course a NATO member. So if these countries are really aligning themselves with Turkey, isn't that actually quite a strong statement that they are against Russia?

They are trying to counterbalance Russia without aggravating Russia, and Turkey may be a NATO country, but it is something of a loose cannon within NATO. And in fact, Turkey enjoys very good relations with Russia And even in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkey, you know, maintains political dialogue with Russia, trade, which has increased over the past couple of years. The war in Ukraine has not done that much damage to its relationship with Russia. And that's why Russia also is slightly more at ease with the OTS and with cooperation between these states. It's certainly annoyed by it. But it also needs these states and Turkey as something of a conduit for trade.

So Piotr, the group is clearly growing and perhaps getting more powerful. Who wins from this alliance?

The Central Asian countries get, you know, more access to European markets via Turkey, which they perceive as their window to Europe. Their armies are modernized also thanks to the Turks. Regional trade picks up. The thing is that a pivot away from Russia for these countries is still impossible to imagine in the near future. Their dependence on Russia, on Russian arms, on Russian trade routes is still of such a magnitude that they cannot jettison their relations with Russia altogether. The best they can do is to try to balance Russia, which they are doing. But what Kazakhstan and its neighbors seem to have realized, that by closing ranks gradually and building new bridges with Turkey, and by tension with Europe, they can keep Russia at arm's length. And they will say that time is on the Turkic world side.

Piotr, thanks so much for talking to me.

Thanks for having me.

Should I take my shoes off, by the way?

Don't worry about it. Yeah, my floors are gross anyway. Um, this is bedroom.

Oh, so much light! I love the color scheme, the pink and green is so nice.

Um, this is the bathroom, then this is my wardrobe, and then this is eventually going to be an office space.

Recently I went up to meet with 24-year-old canal boat owner Zoe Bulsara.

Anne Hannah is a news editor at The Economist.

About 4 months ago, she left her home in Bristol in the southwest of England and bought a narrowboat She reckoned it costs less to live there than renting in a home.

This is actually the first boat I saw.

Really?

Yeah, but I was like, instantly, this is, this is it. This is the one. Whenever somebody asks me how long I've been on board, it feels like a lifetime, but it also feels like about a week. Yeah. And because I was moving every 2 weeks as well, um, your home is not just the home but what you're surrounded by.

She cruises around Britain's canals, moving every 2 weeks because she doesn't have a permanent mooring. She loves the freedom of it.

I, I can be in London next year, and then the year after I can be in Bristol, or I could go to Oxford, or anywhere in the country.

Zoe's just one of a growing number of people who call Britain's waterways home. The last boater census conducted in 2022 showed that about 35,000 boats are on Britain's canals in England and Wales, up by about a third on previous decades. And the number of boats in London has roughly doubled since 2012. Boat owners told me that they've seen more people on the water since the start of the pandemic as well. When remote working became easier. Although most boaters are retirees who've always dreamt of living on water, in London they're typically younger.

Everybody that I talk to about getting a boat and moving on to a boat's like, oh, I had some friends do that a couple years ago, or I've just had a friend that's doing that.

Yeah, over half of 25 to 34-year-old people who don't have a permanent mooring live in are around the capital. Zoe can understand why.

The rental market is nuts, and buying a house is nuts. So yeah, it feels like a real privilege to have like a space that's mine.

The purpose of canals has changed since the first was built in Manchester in 1761. The Bridgewater Canal was designed to transport coal from mines in Worsley to the city. It was so successful that it led to a flurry of canal building projects around the city. Then during the Industrial Revolution, Britain's canal network spans nearly 4,000 miles. But as railways gained momentum, they weren't as useful anymore and their use declined. In about the 1900s, they were abandoned for lack of traffic. But then the Transport Act of 1968 recognised that they could have leisure value and provided public funding for their maintenance. By the end of the 20th century, many of the routes were restored. But the cost of maintaining this really old network is high and rising due to things like extreme weather events and pollution. In the last financial year, the charity that maintains canals spent about £40 million on regular maintenance and another £27 million upgrading reservoirs that top up waters flowing through canals. Boaters are bearing some costs through licenses. Their fees are going to keep increasing for the next several years.

So even just to move your boat up and down, it's costing money, and you pay a license to have your boat on the water, which is grand, but the taps along the canal, that's all free water. So every time—

and money from the government won't cover the costs either, and the charity that maintains the canals says that some of them might have to close. That would be a great shame. Time and nature have morphed canals into something wilder and more beautiful than was originally intended. There are some downsides to living on boats.

Everything is slightly harder on a boat. You will run out of water, and you will have to either move your entire boat, uh, to a completely new spot, possibly over miles, to try and find a water source. You'll run out of gas, and you'll have to find someone that has a car that can I can take you to a marina to buy more gas.

Zoe told me about maintenance works which sometimes shut down parts of the canal and cold winters, but for her, the antiquated nature of the system is part of the charm.

There are so many swans in Newbury that I've never seen this many ever.

Wow. And as we fed the swans out of the boat window, I could see exactly why.

I don't think I've ever seen a swan wag its tail.

They're so sweet.

They're like little dogs. Hello.

That's all for this episode of The Intelligence. We'll see you back here tomorrow.