Neighbour-rattling: India strikes Pakistan

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The Economist. Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist. I'm Jason Palmer.

And I'm Rosie Blore. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

Our correspondent met a Brazilian Supreme Court justice who's one of the most powerful judges in the world, taking on, among other things, the freedoms of the whole Internet. Our correspondent's question is he dictatorial or a defender of democratic norms?

And Samis are a group of indigenous people who live in Europe's frozen north. For centuries, few were interested in the land on which they herded reindeer. But now rare earth minerals are being mined there. Their livelihoods are under threat.

First up though.

India's attack began shortly after midnight. This was exactly two weeks after a terrorist attack in Indian ruled Kashmir had killed 26 civilians.

Jeremy Page is our Asia Diplomatic editor.

India's government said it hit nine terrorist infrastructure sites in Pakistani administered Kashmir and in Punjab. Pakistan said India struck six locations in those regions but denied that any of them were terrorist sites. It's the largest aerial attack on Pakistan in more than 50 years. India's army tweeted that justice is served. The name given to the missile strikes Operation Sindor, a reference to the vermilion powder used in Indian weddings, appears to have been a nod to one of the victims of the massacre. A recently married naval officer whose grieving widow has become a symbol of the atrocity.

And we spoke to you on the show last week about how India might respond to that terrorist attack of two weeks ago. What do you make of how that response has actually played out?

Well, I think there are a few interesting things about it. One is that India appears to have fired missiles and guided bombs from within its own territory. So that's one big difference from its response to the last big attack in Kashmir, which was in 2019, when it actually sent fighter jets across the disputed border to hit militant sites in Pakistan. But whether those tactics are deemed successful or not will depend to a large extent on the veracity of Pakistan's claim to have actually shot down five Indian fighter jets. Now, India hasn't yet responded to those claims. There are some reports in Indian media and foreign media about evidence of aircraft coming down on the Indian side of the border, but we don't yet have independent confirmation of that.

And, of course, everything about this seems to be disputed. But what were the alleged targets of the attack? What was India aiming to do or claiming to do?

So India said it hit nine targets, and five of those were inside Pakistan ruled Kashmir, and four of those were in Punjab. One of those was a place called Maridkay, which is a city about 30 km from Lahore, Punjab's capital and Pakistan's second biggest city. And Maridkay is the alleged site of a big compound associated with Lashko Tayba jihadist militant group, which has deep ties to Pakistan's intelligence service and which India has blamed for the attack on April 22 in Kashmir, but also for the big attack on Mumbai in 2008. And there's video circulating online which apparently shows a fire raging around a damaged building at that site in Marikai. Another target was a city called Bahawalpur, also in Punjab. And that's thought to be the headquarters of another jihadist group called Joshua Muhammad that also has ties to Pakistani spooks and claimed responsibility for the last big attack in Kashmir, which was in 2019.

So this retaliatory attack, as ever, raises the question of escalation between two nuclear powers. What do you make of that risk?

Yes, so I think that risk definitely is there. The decision to hit Punjab is without doubt escalatory in some ways. Pakistan claims that in Bahawalpur, one of those sites in Punjab, a mosque was hit. It also says that the dead include at least one child. On the other hand, I think India does seem to have made some efforts to restrict the sites to these alleged militant targets. Some video footage that India showed at a press conference which just finished showed that the actual attacks, they weren't massive in scale, the explosions weren't particularly large. They do seem to have targeted individual buildings, so there wouldn't have been a whole load of collateral damage to surrounding buildings in those areas. And that does suggest that India is trying to provide an off ramp to Pakistan. And I think there are some encouraging signs from the Pakistani side. It's notable that Pakistani officials are now saying the death toll from the Indian strikes is 26 civilians. So exactly the same as the death toll from those attacks on Indian ruled Kashm April 22.

And so what does that tell you in turn about how Pakistan might or might not respond to this in a tit for tat way?

It's hard to tell because death toll on the Pakistani side might go up. Pakistan's army has said that it's going to respond at a time and place of its own choosing, that India's temporary pleasure will be replaced by enduring grief. So some very heated rhetoric coming out of Pakistan. Its prime minister is going to address the nation shortly. There has been some heavy Pakistani Artill artillery fire towards Indian positions over the disputed border in Kashmir overnight and continuing this morning. So I think Pakistan is going to choose its targets carefully if it does decide to hit back. But it needs to do something to placate its own population and it needs to restore some sort of level of deterrence against India. Judging by past clashes across the border, one of the problems Pakistan faces, it doesn't have militant sites which it can hit on the Indian side. So it will probably target military or paramilitary infrastructure. I think the question is whether it hits sites where there are actually large numbers of personnel so that whether there are Indian casualties or whether it chooses more remote spots or maybe just Indian equipment. So a lot will depend on how Pakistan chooses to respond, how it selects those targets.

So it seems that there is still at least some possibility that things could calm down and return to the tense but non violent confrontation of before.

Yes, I think there's still a chance that that happens. If you look back to 2019, Pakistan did respond to India's airstrikes with its own air attacks, but they were limited in scale. And I think Pakistan this time could again choose military targets within Indian controlled Kashmir that don't cause a high number of casualties. And then India is already pursuing other non military means to try and penalise Pakistan, to put it under economic and diplomatic pressure, including through the International Monetary Fund, because Pakistan is in the midst of a bailout. So I think we could see India going more down that route. And if it gets sufficient international support from the United States and maybe from Saudi Arabia and Turkey and maybe some of the other Gulf countries, then I think that could make a difference as well. They could help to restrain Pakistan and to support those Indian non military efforts. But one of the big questions, I think is over the US Role in all of this, because in past standoffs between India and Pakistan, it is the United States which has been the key player in restraining both sides. But this time I think there was a real question mark over how much bandwidth and how much interest it has in intervening.

Jeremy, thanks very much for joining us.

Thank you, Jason.

I recently met Alejandro de Moraes. He's been a Supreme Court judge in Brazil since 2017.

Ana Lancas is our Brazil bureau chief.

He's someone who really divides opinion. Elon Musk hates his guts. He calls him Darth Vader because he has this black cape and a high, shiny forehead. And Musk says that he's a tyrannical dictator masquerading as a judge. But to campaigners who call for restrictions on digital speech, Moraes is a total superstar. To his fans in Brazil, for example, he's just called Chandon, which means big Alex. Alexander de Moraes matters way beyond Brazil. He rivals U.S. supreme Court members for the title of most powerful judge in the world.

And this is the guy who was responsible for arresting Bolsonaro. Right.

Basically, Bolsonaro has been under investigation for several years. And Alexander de Moraes is the person who's been overseeing those investigations. In the coming days, the trial against Bolsonaro is supposed to begin. He is accused of trying to organize a coup to remain in power after he lost a prison presidential election in 2022. And a little bit like Donald Trump's supporters in January 2021, Bolsonaro supporters attacked the Supreme Court, Congress and the presidential palace in January 2023. But what happened in Brazil goes way beyond what happened in the United States. And it kind of makes the Capitol riots look like a tea party. So Bolsonaro also stands accused of drafting a coup decree that would have called a bogus state of emergency and kept him in of signing off on an assassination plot to kill the person who's now president, his vice president, and this judge, Alejandra de Moraes.

Anna, there's a reason that Musk called him Darth Vader, Right. Which is that he was responsible for trying to ban Twitter, ban X in Brazil.

That's right. So Outside of Brazil, Alejandro de Moraes has become known for his crusade against misinformation online, which has disproportionately targeted far right groups. So last year, he got into a spat with X and also a few other websites. Because he ordered several accounts to be taken down. X refused to do so. Then X pulled its legal representative from Brazil. And you cannot run a company in Brazil if you do not have a legal representative. So he had X closed down. But X wasn't only blocked in Brazil. Moraes also imposed fines on Musk and froze the bank accounts of Starlink, another one of Musk's companies, to collect those fines and put a huge fine on any Brazilian who tried to access X through a vpn. So all of that gives you a hint that he has slightly draconian instincts and he's not afraid to be ruthless. But he says that he's doing this to save Brazilian democracy.

So what's going on, Anna? Is he trying to save Brazilian democracy or wielding power against powerful people with some other motive?

So the weird thing about Brazil is that its laws allow him to do all of this. He is such a powerful judge, but that's because Brazil's constitution and its criminal code have given him this power. So Brazil limits freedom of speech quite severely. Any discrimination or prejudice based on race, gender, sexual orientation, religion, or physical or social condition is prohibited. And that means that he can order a lot of content online to be taken down. Speech is regulated all over the world. But in Brazil, the difference is that you have this very activist judge who's been enforcing speech limits very, very strictly.

So why is a judge able to be so dominant in Brazil?

So Brazil's constitution is one of the world's longest. It's incredibly detailed, it's chockablocked, full of rights, and it allows many different people to file cases directly with the Supreme Court rather than have them filter up from lower courts like in the United States. That means that the Supreme Court in Brazil has a much higher caseload than any other Supreme Court in the world. And what they've done in order to deal with that caseload is that they've let individual judges make far reaching decisions. Many of the decisions that Moraes has taken have later been upheld by other members of the court. Brazil's legal system is set up in such a way that the Supreme Court makes the law on many issues that in other countries would be left to Congress. And beyond that, everybody in Brazil knows the names of the Supreme Court justices. It's because they're kind of Celebrities, they have a TikTok account. All their rulings are live streamed on television. So justice is here have a different air than they do in other countries.

Ana, you said that Moraes is somewhat draconian, but is it inappropriate the use of his power?

So this is what makes him interesting, because on the one hand, it is true that Brazil faced threats to its democracy that were much graver than the United States or any other western country in recent years. And if it were not for this man, Brazil may not be a democracy right now. On the other hand, I think many Brazilians, even moderate ones, think that he has accumulated too much power in the past few years. And though they're grateful for what he did during the years that Bolsonaro was in power and tried to remain in power, they're a little bit wary of the powers that he continues to exercise. I'll give you an example of overreach. In 2019, an online investigative newspaper in Brazil published an article that showed potential links between a different judge on the Supreme Court and a corrupt businessman. He had been convicted of bribery, really large scale bribery. And Moraes ordered that article to be taken down. He said it was fake news. He then reverses order after public backlash. But that gives you a sense that these powers can be misused. Elon Musk and right wing politicians absolutely hate Alexandri de Moraes, which, for someone who's in the crosshairs of the Maga movement, think that he's left wing, but he isn't at all. He considers himself a classical liberal. In our meeting, he said to me, virtue exists in the middle. And he kind of made fun of people who insulted him. He said, I get called a communist because radicals think calling someone a communist is the worst insult in the world. But I'm a liberal in economic terms.

And Anna, what sense did you get of what he's really motivated by and what's his endgame?

It was quite fun because he's quite scary. In pictures. He's bald. He sometimes has this very stern look. He wears this big black cape. So the Darth Vader analogy that Elon Musk uses is not completely off. He does look a bit like a cartoon villain. And then you meet him in person. He's really funny. He was very relaxed. When you ask him what or you're afraid of the death threats you receive, he's just like, no, the only thing that makes me upset is when Corinthians loses, which is his favorite football team. He's like a proper fanatic. And it sounds like bravura. But I actually do think he just genuinely is like this is just part of the job. The death threats. My sense from him is that he's driven by several things. One, he's never shied away from high profile fights. Two, I can't stress enough how much him and his family receive death threats. So I think that partly motivates what he's doing. And three, he kept mentioning the threats that social media represent to democracies today in the West. I do really think that what keeps him up at night is the fear of what extreme right wing online content can do to democracies. I think the eyes of the world will be on Moraes and on Brazil in the coming weeks because Bolsonaro is expected to stand trial and because the United States is currently considering barring Moraes from entering the United States. And I think what this whole discussion shows is it throws up the question of how you deal with would be authoritarians in a democracy and whether Moraes has done it right or whether he himself also represents a threat to liberal values.

Anna, thank you so much for talking to me.

Thanks for having me, Rosie.

We hope you enjoy listening to this show as much as we enjoy making it. But I feel like I haven't asked you recently, dear listener, whether and why you do. As part of our ceaseless campaign to improve, we've got a short survey where you can have your say. Go on. If lots of you do, they'll throw an extra treat in my bowl. You can find the link to the survey in the show notes. Thanks.

A century ago, the northern town of Kiruna in Sweden became known as the land of the future. Rich in iron ore, it was the backbone of Swedish industry. But the mines grew so vast the ground beneath the town collapsed and many people had to relocate. Now history is repeating itself. The largest deposits of rare earth metals in Europe have put this region at the heart of the EU's green transition. But the area's long standing inhabitants fear that a greener future for Europe may jeopardize their own existence.

The Savis are Europe's last indigenous group. They live in Stpi, a region spanning Sweden, Norway, Finland and Russia. And there's around 100,000 of them.

Carla Subarana is one of our news editors.

You may know them for their reindeer as herding them is key to their culture. And this practice, which is thousands of years old, depends on access to wide open landscapes.

Carla, we're talking about this because the Green Transition is affecting the lives of these Samis. What's actually happening.

So people don't often think about the north of Sweden because it's just frozen land, but it actually has a lot of critical minerals there. So what is happening is that the green transition is reviving interest in the north of Sweden, and new projects are popping up all across the region. So, for example, the Atik mine, which is one of Europe's largest copper mines, is expanding. And then also because it's a vast and undeveloped landscape, new wind farms are planned all across the region. So nine of Sweden's 12 northern mines, including one in Kiruna, are already in these territories and their footprint is growing. And all of these projects are forcing reindeer herders to adapt.

So how is this forcing herders to adapt?

I talk to loads of people there, and essentially it's shrinking reindeer migration corridors, so it's making it a lot harder to herd them.

I live in the north of Sweden and I am a member of the Sami community called Urdakke.

Christina Arend grew up in a herding community and I spoke to her on a video call, and she sat outside her log house in Kiruna, a few kilometers north of where she lives. The main reindeer migration corridor has been squeezed into a passage only a few kilometers wide.

The speed that they are cutting down the old forest now is we never seen anything like it. And that means that the reindeers can't find food and then they starve. That is basically what's happening.

So do you think that the balance is right at the moment of how it's being done, like the new projects that are being set up here?

We feel very much that we are in the. In the way we are disposable. This is going to happen whether or not we say yes or no.

Climate change is adding because the Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average. And this is creating erratic weather that turns snow into ice. And this seals lichen, the reindeer's main food source. Beneath an impenetrable crust, food was already in short supply because logging has wiped out a lot of forests. It has reduced grazing areas by around 71% over the past 60 years.

Carla, do the Samis have any protection against this infringement?

Yeah, so it's tricky. On one hand, Sudan's constitution does recognize the right of the Samis to use the land for reindeer herding, but these rights exist alongside competing property claims. So, for example, companies are not legally required to seek approval from the Sami before breaking ground. And so this legal ambiguity means that in practice, protection are weak. And, for example, communities are often forced to fight expansion, expansion in courtrooms or boardrooms. And these are places where they hold very little power. There was a study by the Stockholm Environment Institute that found that wind power farms often include gag clauses and confidentiality agreements in contracts that the herders don't really understand to prevent them from speaking out.

So are they pushing back a tool?

So legal challenges have stalled major projects. For example, the construction of a new nickel mine in northern Sweden has been put on hold. And then the Sami Council, which is an indigenous, indigenous group, has set up a unit in the European Union to push for more protections.

The Sami community resisted, and we sent a complaint to the UN Committee on Racial Discrimination, where the committee concluded that the mineral legislation is violating the Sami people's rights in the process of establishing a mine, nickel mine.

Elmer Oma is the head of the EU unit and she says that growing scrutiny is prompting investors to assess the consequences of their projects they fund. So it is having an impact.

We had been warning about the climate crisis for years before it became a buzzword, but we were not the one who created it. But now it seems like we are the one who's gonna solve the crisis.

It still feels like the community is under threat and there haven't been any meaningful protections.

Carla, what the Samis are facing is something that a lot of communities are facing where there's a small group who are suffering problems sort of for the sake of a bigger thing that the world needs, the green transition. Is there a good way out of this? Is there a solution? Yes.

Clearly Sweden has a very big opportunity here. Its vast mineral reserves give it an opportunity to help Europe reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. But I think we also have a lot to learn from the Samis. They sort of embody a very sustainable lifestyle. And I think that without stronger safeguards, this movement is going to come at the expense of a centuries old way of life.

Carla, great to talk to you. Thank you.

Thank you, Rosie.

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. We'll see you back here tomorrow.