Repetitive strains: SARS-CoV-2 variants

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Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist. I'm your host Jason Palmer. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. When Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed set the army against breakaway forces in Tigray in November, he expected the conflict to last mere weeks. Now, amid a growing famine, rebels have run the army out, threatening stability in Ethiopia and the whole region. And it's the fourth of July this weekend, a benchmark time for big Hollywood releases. But it wasn't that way until the summer screening of Jaws in 1975. And there's still never been a successful movie tackling the history of the holiday itself. First up, though, the variant of the coronavirus called delta is causing alarm as it swiftly becomes the cause of a majority of new COVID 19 cases all over the world. Virus.

The highly contagious delta variant, now confirmed in every state in the country responsible for more says the delta variant has been identified in 85 countries and is spreading rapidly. The variant is really contagious, much more contagious than previous variants.

In Britain, it now accounts for more than 95%. Its spread was a key factor behind Prime Minister Boris Johnson's decision to delay the country's full reopening.

That's why we're so concerned by the delta variant that is now spreading faster than the third wave that was predicted in the February roadmap.

Every time a virus replicates, there's a chance for a random mutation, most of which don't make much difference. Sometimes, though, those variations affect how easily that new virus can pass between humans, how well it might evade the immune system, or how severe the disease it causes. These variants of concern now get Greek letters to distinguish them. Alpha first showed up in Britain, beta in South Africa. Gamma has ravaged South America. More are certain to come, especially in places where vaccination rates are low, exactly the places where they'll prove to be the most deadly. But researchers have tentative hopes that there aren't a Great many worrisome mutations yet to emerge.

The variant known as Delta is cropping up all over the world. We're seeing it in Europe, in Africa, in Asia, America. In all, it's been seen in about 85 countries and it's highly transmissible.

Natasha Loder is the Economist's Health Policy editor.

And to put this in context, in the absence of any precautions or immunity, each infection with the original virus sequenced in Wuhan led to roughly two and a half subsequent infections, but under the same conditions. Now, this reproductive number, as they call it, for Delta, may be as high as 8.

And it's just that transmissibility that makes it more dangerous because everyone gets infected.

At the same time. This puts huge pressure on health systems and means you can't care for everyone as they get sick. So in unvaccinated populations, if you're not going to take any precautions like lockdowns, an RF8 produces the sort of dramatic crisis that we saw in India. And bear in mind, of course, much of the world is unvaccinated. Less than 1% of the people in low income countries, which are mainly in Africa, have even had a single dose of vaccine. And so across Africa, it's little surprise that Delta is fueling outbreaks that are already starting to crush hospitals and kill healthcare workers. And the fear now, of course, is of a catastrophic outbreak, just like India has just had.

Yes. So on Monday's episode of the show, I spoke with our colleague John McDermott, Chief Africa Correspondent, about the third wave that's now hitting the continent there. But aside from transmissibility, what do we know about these variants in terms of how deadly they are, how severe the disease they cause might be?

Well, when it comes to Delta, we just don't know. We certainly know that the alpha variant which turned up in Britain, we did see a higher level of severe disease than those who'd been infected with the original version. Although there was no corresponding increase in deaths. The early symptoms of Delta do seem to be different to previous variants. You're getting headaches, sore throats and runny noses rather than things like fever, cough or loss of taste or smell.

And of course, the overwhelming question here for those parts of the world where vaccination rates are fairly high is how effective the existing vaccines will be against variants that have been detected.

So here it's useful to make a distinction between the ability of vaccines to prevent transmission and their ability to protect from severe disease. And all the vaccines from the big Western pharma firms are doing a really great job of Preventing serious illness and death, whatever variant we're talking about. But when it comes to catching COVID and transmitting Covid, the vaccines are nowhere nearly as protective. Certainly for Delta, it really does seem to be able to get in and out of vaccinated people much more easily than earlier variants. In Israel, for example, where most people are vaccinated, the outbreak of Delta there, half of the people who had it were fully vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine. The upshot, though, for countries that have vaccinated well, is that none of the new variants present the same kind of public health threat as we faced with the original virus when we had nothing. So in Britain, infections are rising sharply. We have Delta, but the number of deaths seems to be remaining fairly stable.

But this, after all, is just one of the variants. What are your thoughts on new variants that may emerge that could evade the protections that you're saying vaccines are giving people so far?

Well, that absolutely is a risk. But what is encouraging is that scientists are really starting to wonder whether the variants of this virus have limited evolutionary room to maneuver and that the virus may have already thrown the worst of what it has to offer at us. And part of the reasoning behind that thought is the fact that similar mutations are cropping up again and again in the variants. And so might that mean that there are not as many places that the virus has the capacity to mutate to in evolutionary terms? I mean, this does remain speculative, but ultimately we are just going to have to wait and see if the virus has any more mutational surprises for us.

But it seems sure that more mutations will happen, more variants will emerge. What does the world have at its disposal when that inevitably happens?

The world has quite a few tools at its disposal. Some companies are looking at making new variant vaccines, but what's looking like a really promising strategy at the moment is giving third shots. And that is, if you've had two, you have a third shot, either of the same vaccine that you had before or of another, and both of these things will restore your immunity to sort of peak levels. In fact, if you're given a slightly different vaccine as a third shot, you may actually get a stronger immune response. Now, third shots are being looked at by a number of governments, including Britain's and the uae and Bahrain are already offering third shots to people who've had Chinese vaccines. But on a broad scale, it's not clear yet whether third shots are going to be needed. And everyone is watching the durability of the immunity. They're watching for what's called breakthrough infections, how many people who have been vaccinated are getting infected. It's also worth pointing out that giving third shots perhaps are not necessarily a priority compared to the first and second shots that we really need to make sure we deliver around the world to people who clearly need them more than they ever have done in the past.

Right. So as with so many things, one to watch and our listeners might be used to hearing this kind of analysis on our sister show the Jab, which you co host, but that the series has finished this week.

Yes it has. The last episode came out on Monday. So do check it out because I was speaking to the chief scientist at the World Health Organization, Soumya Swaminathan, and she just gave a wonderful overview of the pandemic so far and what we can expect. And the other thing listeners can do is be part of a one off live event we're holding on the 7th of July. I'll be running this with my co host on the Jab, Alok Jha and we'll be answering listeners questions about COVID the pandemic and the vaccination effort. And you can sign up for free on economist.com jablive I will sign up right now.

Natasha, thanks very much.

Thank you Jason. It was a pleasure.

In Ethiopia's northern region of Tigray, there have been sounds of celebration. On Monday, the ruling party there, the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front, or tplf, declared they had reclaimed Mekele, the local capital, from government troops. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said forces had withdrawn because Mekele was no longer the center of gravity, Which many read as a euphemism for panicked retreat. The TPLF had long been in control of the region and called the shots in the national government. But it was ousted by protests along ethnic lines. In 2018, protests that ushered Aby to the prime minister's office, a power struggle bubbled away. It boiled over last November after the TPLF seized control of much of the army's heavy weaponry. In response, Abiy sent in the army, backed by forces from neighboring Eritrea, a blitz that suggested he'd make good on boasts to put the rebellion down swiftly. What's transpired since then is nothing short of a civil war and a humanitarian disaster. Now the unexpected triumph of the Tigrayans opens the door to a dissolution of the entire country or a widening conflict far beyond its borders.

There's absolutely no doubt this is a huge turning point.

Tom Gardner is the Economist's Addis Ababa correspondent.

It's very unclear at the moment, how exactly things are going to shake out. There are only a few eyes on the ground, which makes it very difficult to know precisely what is happening. But we can say for certain that this is definitely the biggest turning point in the war since it began.

And this is a war that Ethiopia's Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, thought would be over in a matter of weeks. And in the end, it's been months. And the rebels pushed the Ethiopian army out. How did that happen?

Over the past few months, it's transformed into this grinding guerrilla war which really plays to the strength of the Tigrayans, who have a long history of guerrilla warfare. Their fighters took the hills, renamed themselves, recast themselves as the Tigrayan Defence Force, the tdf, and restructured themselves under a new military command and began the slow grind of wearing down the Ethiopian army. The Ethiopian army had been suffering significant military defeats, some defections, desertions over the last few weeks, if not months. The TDF had certainly been more than holding their own against one of Africa's largest armies for several months. By last weekend, there seemed to be a kind of mood of total chaos in Mekele, the regional capital. You had witnesses seeing Ethiopian soldiers looting banks, requisitioning cars from civilians. They raided a UN office, began dismantling satellite communications equipment. All of which points to what appears to have been a very disorderly retreat.

And what's the situation on the ground in Tigray now?

So the federal government declared a unilateral ceasefire on June 28, ostensibly on humanitarian ground. A spokesman for the Ethiopian government on Tuesday said that the army could re enter Mekele at any time if they decide to. In reality, the SISFAR probably is an effort to mask defeat of their forces and allow them to retreat the chaos over the preceding days. Conversations with diplomats in private all indicated that this was not planned weeks or even days in advance, that this was something that was forced upon the prime minister and upon the army. At the last moment, the tdf, they responded that this ceasefire was a sick joke, said that they would continue pursuing enemy forces, perhaps even beyond Tigray's borders. By June 30, the TDF appeared to be in control of most of the region and certainly all the key towns.

And we spoke last week about the risk of famine in Tigray and a preposterously timed election. What about the humanitarian end of this?

Up to a million people face starvation, according to the latest figures. That's because they've not been able to plant crops in time for the rainy season next month and because Eritrean and Ethiopian forces have not been allowing sufficient supplies of food to pass road checkpoints. So the most urgent concern ought to be now ensuring aid agencies are able to get access. But some observers are saying that it looks like the blockade of Tigray is going to continue. In fact, it seems to be worsening in the sense that over the last couple of days, three bridges over the river which marks the border with the neighbouring Amhara region have been destroyed for more than a week now. Roads into the region have been blocked as well. So in terms of the immediate humanitarian situation, it doesn't look like things are going to improve at all anytime soon unless that blockade is lifted pretty urgently.

And we've spoken a lot about this war and its potential to spread into a far wider, more regional conflict. How is that looking in light of these events?

Well, the immediate concern regards Eritrea. Eritrean troops have been involved in the fighting in Tigras since the beginning and have been involved in some of the worst atrocities in this war as a result. The TDF have made it pretty clear that they regard Isaiah Zafawerki, the president of Eritrea, as fair game now, and that a march into Eritrea to route the Eritrean army and possibly to remove Isaias from power, it could be part of the strategy going forward. So that does certainly raise the very worrying prospect of a war spreading right over the border into Eritrea. But there's also the concern around Sudan. Ever since the war began in November in Tigray, tensions between Ethiopia and Sudan along their shared border, which is very close to Tigray, have escalated. These tensions also relate to the construction of a giant dam on the Blue Nile, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Abi said shortly after pulling his troops out of Tigray that one of the reasons was to refocus attention on the question of Sudan, the disputed territories and protecting the dam from adversaries. Those adversaries are clearly Sudan and further downstream, Egypt.

So in any case, this conflict doesn't look to end anytime soon.

Sadly not. There is the prospect now of the TDF pushing into Eritrea. There is also ongoing activity fighting on the western side of Tigray towards the region of Amhara, where there are disputed territories which Amhara forces occupied at the start of the war. They're now trying to push them out again. And then you have the longer term question, which is, are the Tigrayans fighting for independence now? The political leadership has been wary of that question for some time, has refused to endorse it kind of openly, but certainly There are those within the leadership and absolutely at the grassroots level, many who are firm, staunch advocates now of Decrean independence. So is this a battle for independence? That's going to be one of the next questions. And if the answer is yes, that's going to have enormously profound implications for Ethiopia, for the Federation. There are other ethnic groups in Ethiopia which have their own kind of self determination demands. So Ethiopia, which many have likened to Yugoslavia, may yet tear itself apart.

Thanks very much for your time, Tom.

Thank you, Jason.

A lot of us during the holidays will watch movies, will go to the movies. But cinema also has a way of defining those holidays.

John Bleasdale writes about culture for the Economist.

Christmas without Frank Capra's It's a Wonderful Life would be a lot different.

Why don't you kiss her instead of talking her to death?

Thanksgiving had a cinematic portrait in the John Candy Steve Martin comedy Planes, Trains and Automobiles, directed by John Hughes.

Welcome to Marathon. May I help you?

Yes, The fourth of July is an incredibly important day when it comes to the release of films in the summer. However, when it comes to actually depicting the events which inspired the holiday, Hollywood hasn't done quite so well. There really isn't a film that defines it. The reason that summer became this important time for the release of films is because of a movie that was set around about the time of the 4th of July, and that was Steven Spielberg's Jaws.

You open the beaches on the 4th.

Of July, it's like ringing the dinner.

Bell, for Christ's sake. Jaws has a complicated relationship to the holiday in that it depicts a local seaside town threatened by the great white shark of the title that has started to snack on some of the celebrants. As such, it's not exactly the best advert that you could have for the holiday, but its huge success meant that the summer suddenly became much more attractive to studios when it came to releasing their big budget films. Jaws originally had been slated to come out in December, which was a perfect launching pad for the Academy Awards and also was commercially very viable because everybody was home for the holidays. However, difficulty in the production, most famously with the mechanical shark, which refused to cooperate, and having to film mostly on the open water, meant that the release date of the film was pushed back again and again until it was finally released in June of 1975. The studios immediately learned the lesson that this was something that people wanted to do, they wanted to go and see films in the summer. Star wars was another summer release which was a huge hit and really cemented the template for the summer blockbuster. A film which actually includes the holiday in its title is Roland Emmerich's Independence Day. It's a hugely patriotic piece of science fiction mixed in with disaster movies movie aesthetic from the late 70s. Emmerich was absolutely insistent that the film should be released on July 4th. The 4th of July will no longer.

Be known as an American holiday.

Roland Emmerich seemed to be a little bit obsessed with these American flag waving patriotic period. In fact, about four years later he would come out with another film again released on July 4th called the Patriot. The film is a historical reimagining of the American War of Independence and stars Australians Mel Gibson and Heath Ledger as father and son who fight the English.

But my Lord, you've taken the field. Now we shall take their spirits, send.

The entire battalion over that hill and crush them.

It ends today.

The film didn't really do that well. Barely made its budget back. Ironically, the film, despite all its red, white and blue pizzazz, actually did better overseas. It's difficult to tell why the events which actually inspired the 4th of July haven't really translated into cinema success. This isn't true of other medium. You know, HBO has had a miniseries which was highly critically lauded, John Adams. And of course one of the biggest cultural successes of the last decade has to be Hamilton, the mega hit Broadway musical. Why is it that American cinema hasn't managed to produce a similarly successful depiction of these events? It just might be that the right director and the right writer haven't come up with the right material. When it comes, you can bet your bottom dollar that it will be released on the 4th of July.

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. The show's editors this week are Kim Gitelson and Chris Impey. Our sound engineer is Daniel Lloyd Evans with help this week from Soul Rivers. Our senior producers are Hannah Mourinho, Duncan Barber and Sam Colbert. Our producers are Stevie Hertz and William Warren and assistant producers Jason Hoskin and Abasoye Oshundairo. With extra production this week by Emily Elias. We'll all see you back here on. Sam.