Rubber-stamping ground: China’s parliament meets

Hi, this is Christy from Back to the Bar. You've probably heard about GLP1 weight loss medications and the side effects that can come with jumping in too fast. That's why I love Noom. Makes getting started easy. Their microdose GLP1 program begins with a smaller dose and gradually scales up based on how your body reacts. The Noom GLP1 microdose program starts at $99 and is delivered to your door in seven days. Start your microdose GLP1 journey today at noom.com that's n o o m.com Noom micro changes big results average weight loss 8 pounds in first month meds and personalization based on clinical need and not available to all individuals. Medications are not reviewed by FDA for safety, efficacy or quality. Pricing based on first month only.

Hey, Ryan Reynolds here wishing you a very happy half off holiday because right now Mint Mobile is offering you the gift of 50% off unlimited. To be clear, that's half the price, not half the service. Admit is still pre premium unlimited wireless for a great price.

So that means a half day.

Yeah, give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront.

Payment of $45 for three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required new.

Customer offer for first three months only.

Speed slow 135 gigabytes of networks busy taxes and fees extra. See mint mobile.com.

Hello and welcome to the Intelligence on Economist Radio. I'm your host Jason Palmer. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping. Iraq will host a pope for the first time. The country's Christian minority is much reduced and frequently ostracized. Pope Francis hopes to give them strength to draw the displaced back home and to forge greater ties with Shia Muslim leaders. And for all the businesses that are starting to think about reopening nightclubs face a particularly tricky task. Distance isn't really the point. Clubs have been hammered by the pandemic, but the truth is they were struggling even before that. First up, though, Today began the annual meeting of the National People's Congress, or npc, China's Parliament. Li Zhongshu, chairman of the Standing Committee, declared the session open. Thousands of delegates from across the country have congregated in Beijing to witness the release of the Communist Party's next economic Five Year Plan and to shape the political agenda for the year ahead. There's no question that those plans will be approved. Party officials used to grumble at suggestions that all this parliamentary pomp was a mere rubber stamping of the party agenda. These days they spin that Smoothness as a sign of China's stability.

The opening of the National People's Congress is a tremendous piece of Communist Party theatre. And as a foreign journalist, you're way up in the gods watching from a great distance, this enormous hall, this great big 1950s kind of people's palace on the side of Tiananmen Square. You bring your binoculars because you're so far away from the leaders.

David Rennie is our Beijing bureau chief.

This year, because of COVID only a very small number of pool photographers and cameramen were allowed in. It's very restricted and it's a shorter session than normal, but it is unveiling a new five year plan. And these things, although tremendously scripted, they do send some real signals about real.

Policy priorities and what's been announced so far.

The opening address by the Prime Minister, Li Keqiang, was that they will have an economic growth target that reflects the confidence of the government that they have really smothered the COVID 19 pandemic. Remember that unusually, there wasn't a growth target last year because of the pandemic. And we are also expecting that there will be changes to Hong Kong's election laws to further reduce the power of the opposition there.

Well, let's start with the growth target. How much is China expecting to grow and how likely do you think that is?

Li Keqiang set a 6% growth target for this year and that's completely feasible. Remember that China is coming off a low base because of the pandemic slowdown last year. It will probably exceed that. And what it's really sending is a signal that the Chinese government is so confident that of all the world's major economies, China's is going to grow strongly this year that they're willing to set a target at all. In fact, they're so confident that there is also talk about avoiding overheating, making sure that they will not try and stimulate the economy in a way that will further grow the deficit. The political message alongside the economic message, which is for consumption in China but also around the world, is that the fact that China, this giant economy is growing again is all about the successful, benign leadership of the Communist Party. You had a tribute from the Prime Minister, Li Keqiang, to the tenacity of the Chinese people as they fought off the coronavirus.

And we've talked a lot recently about China's ambitious climate goals. Were there any details about that as regards the economy?

Not really. It was a little bit of a punt. There had been people hoping to see more detail and more Ambition because China has promised to peak its CO2 emissions before 2030. The European Union and others have pushed China to do that, in fact, by 2025, saying that if China doesn't peak sooner than 2030, we're not going to hit the 2 degree limit in global warming. In fact, they stuck to the same numbers that they had in the previous five year plan and they said that by the end of the year they would explain how they were going to get to those overall ambitious numbers.

And moving on to the announcements about Hong Kong, what's going on there?

This meeting of the National People's Congress is going to be used to further impose tighter rules on Hong Kong from Beijing. That's clearly not in the spirit of the one country, two systems policy, which is Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong. But the line from Communist Party leaders for weeks now is that it should be patriots governing Hong Kong and they're going to set tests. And what this really means is that because the Hong Kong people have the irritating habit, from Beijing's perspective, of electing opposition politicians and democrats, they are going to stamp out some of those last places where people can vote for opponents of the government. So the Hong Kong Parliament ledger is going to grow by 20 seats. Those extra 20 seats are going to go to pro Beijing stooges, we expect. They're going to also remove the ability of opposition politicians to to have any real say in choosing the next chief executive of Hong Kong. And it is reported that they may simply postpone the next elections for the Parliament Ledgko by another year because at the moment there are no opposition politicians in Lejko because a lot of them resigned or have been disqualified. In fact, several dozen former Ledgo members and Democratic politicians are currently being charged on national security offences. So this is a real use of this robber stamp parliament in Beijing to further crush the last gasps of democratic accountability in Hong Kong.

And how easy will it be for Beijing to impose those changes? What do you think the response will be in Hong Kong?

I think it will be depressingly very easy. If listeners remember those huge protests in 2019 with up to 2 million people by some accounts on the streets. Those have not happened in any way since the passage of a National Security Law last year. It's a really draconian law. You can be charged now for simply holding up the wrong sign in the street. People in Hong Kong are frightened. Even longtime democratic activists are deleting their social media accounts, are not talking to foreign journalists. Hong Kong journalists working for newspapers critical of the government have seen their proprietors locked up. It's an incredibly big change since 2019. So although we see flashes of dissent, public opposition is just way too dangerous now. And this, I'm afraid, will be imposed without any way to stop it.

A couple of big and serious moves then at the outset of this meeting. What do you expect to see for the rest of the week?

China is still a country that issues five year plans. The 14th five year plan is going to be approved during this session of the npc. And the big message from that, as far as the outside world is concerned, is going to be talk of self reliance, particularly in critical high technologies. And what that really means in plain English is that China is absolutely determined by not to be dependent on hostile foreign powers, which means countries like America able to threaten China by choking off supplies of things like semiconductors. And you're going to see a tremendous amount of money and time and political backing thrown at creating domestic Chinese industries that can make China completely independent of places like America when it comes to the highest technologies. And that, I think is going to be the core of a lot of what we hear this week.

And in years past, Chinese authorities have seemingly not liked the phrase rubber stamp parliament, but it's hard to call it anything else.

No, the NPC is completely under the control of the Communist Party. And the biggest drama is whether you have a few abstentions on a few votes. But what's fascinating this year is the way that they've almost embraced the idea of being a rubber stamp parliament. You're seeing official party media boasting about how orderly and stable these discussions are and contrasting those with, with what they call the constant gridlock and partisan fighting in Western democracies. And so in this 100th anniversary year of the Communist Party, we're going to see a tremendous amount of rhetoric about the superiority of Communist Party rule, that it is a better way of running a country. And look at the economic success, the ability to marshal the entire people behind the task of crushing Covid. And they're going to be saying don't nag us about human rights. Don't even dare to talk about the lack of democratic elections. We are in fact a better system that delivers better lives for more people. And the west needs to study China, not the other way around.

Thanks very much for your time, David.

Thank you.

For more analysis like this from our international network of correspondence, take out a subscription to the Economist. Get a great introductory deal@Equality.com IntelligenceOffer the link is in the show Notes.

Hi, this is Christy from back to the bar. You've probably heard about GLP1 weight loss medications and the side effects that can come with jumping in too fast. That's why I love Noom makes getting started easy. Their microdose GLP1 program begins with a smaller dose and gradually scales up based on how your body reacts. The Noom GLP1 microdose program starts at $99 and is delivered to your door in seven days. Start your microdose GLP1 journey today at Noom.com that's N-O O M.com Noom micro changes big results average weight loss 8 pounds in first month meds and personalization based on clinical need and not available to all individuals. Medications are not reviewed by FDA for safety, efficacy or quality. Pricing based on first month only.

When Islamic State was chased out of Karakush in Northern Ira in 2016, the town's church bells rang out. It's the largest Christian town in the country and is left its churches burnt and riddled with bullet holes. The church's leader, Father Georges Jahola, said of the land, if we lose it, we lose our identity. Now Iraq's biggest church has just been refurbished, just in time for a visit from Pope France Pop Francis, who arrived in the country today. His three day tour is the first by a pope, and it comes at a difficult time for the country's Christians. Before his visit, the pontiff said he looked forward to meeting a martyred church, a nod to their plight. Although Christians have been present in Iraq since the first century after the American invasion, their numbers have dwindled, so it's.

Actually the culmination of two decades of efforts to bring any pope to the country, which is said to be the birthplace of Abraham.

Amy Hawkins is a news editor for the Economist.

John Paul II tried to go in 1999, but he didn't make it. But this time around, Pope Francis is hoping to encourage the country's small number of Christians, and he also wants to boost ties with the Shiite world. So he's got a private meeting with Iraq's top Shiite cleric, the Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani.

So why is he making this visit?

So the pope was invited by Iraq's president in 2019, and the president at the time said he would hope it would help the country heal after years of strife. The pope said that he's come as a pilgrim for forgiveness and reconciliation, and he also wants to support one of the world's oldest Christian communities, numbers of which are drastically dwindling.

How Drastically, Are we talking here?

There used to be about 1.2 million Christians in Iraq in 2003. Now there's around 250,000. So less than 1% of the population. And that's because Saddam Hussein, in the years of his rule, he largely protected the Christian minorities and he even made a Christian called Tariq, as is his deputy prime minister. But some Muslims always kind of viewed Christianity as a Western import. And after the chaos of the American invasion in 2003, anti Christian violence started to increase. And that increase kind of turned into an existential threat during the years of Islamic State's campaign. And so when is occupied much of Iraq, they told Christians that they could either leave, convert or be killed. So unsurprisingly, lots of them left. So in August 2014, around 100,000 Christians fled from the Nineveh Plains, which is the heartland of Iraqi Christianity in the north. And it was an area that is conquered. And some of those Christians went to Baghdad and Erbil, the big cities. Many left the country. And actually an enduring source of resentment towards Christians in Iraq comes from the idea that they can more easily claim asylum in the West.

But given that those numbers have dropped so low over that time, is there any chance that those Christians will come back?

So across the Nineveh Plains, around half of the Assyrians, which are a predominantly Christian ethnic minority, have returned to their villages. But in some areas that's less than 10%. So whether or not Christians return to their hometown often depends on who's in control of that area now, because at least six different groups claim authority in different parts of the Nineveh plains, and that includes Shia militias, Kurdish forces and the Iraqi government. So in places controlled by Christian militias, Christians are more likely to return. There's also the problem that lots of their homes are destroyed, although there are reconstruction efforts going on. And about half of the homes damaged or destroyed in the Nineveh Plains were restored by January.

And you said that Christians got some protection under Saddam Hussein, but what about the current government in Iraq? How do they figure into this?

So the current government in Iraq has made some effort to reach out. For example, last year they declared Christmas to be an official holiday. But lots of Christians still say they feel like second class citizens. For example, they get a tougher time getting government jobs. And the 2005 Constitution of Iraq is based on Islam. And that means there are certain rules, like children born of mixed parentage are automatically classed as Muslim, even if the child is a product of rape. Mixed marriage is officially banned. And in Iraqi Kurdistan in the northeast of the country, it's a bit more hospitable to Christians, and that's because the Kurdistan project is more based on ethnicity rather than religion. So that allows for some pluralism. But that said, Kurdistan doesn't always adhere to its own laws and there can still be ethnicity based discrimination.

And what about more broadly? Is there any international pressure to make things more equal?

Yeah, there is. So there's lots of Western aid going into Iraq, and some of that singles out Christians as a group to receive aid funding. So USAID, America's development agency, committed just over $27 million to help people returning to the Nun airplanes in 2018 and 2019. And it was the only district in Iraq to get a dedicated funding stream. In 2017, Hungary launched the Hungary Helps project aimed at Christians around the world. The minister in charge said the flagship project was the reconstruction of Tezkopa, a predominantly Assyrian town in the Nineveh plains. But overall, Western countries don't like to be seen to be playing religious favoritism. But there is some kind of piecemeal effort from Western governments and also Western NGOs to support the Christian communities in particular.

And what about the Pope's visit? What impacts do you think that'll have on the plight of Christians?

It's certainly a boost in morale. Everyone's very excited about his visit and they're predicting lots of people will want to come and see him. And it's good for awareness about the issues facing Iraqi Christians generally. Lots of people have said that Iraqi Muslims also welcome the Pope's message of peace and unity. But in the end, it will take more than goodwill to rebuild the community.

Amy, thank you very much for your time.

Thanks for having me.

Kenya's capital, Nairobi, is one of East Africa's rising cities. Along with all the apartment and office blocks springing up on nearly every corner, a club scene is emerging to serve the city's growing crop of wealthy youngsters.

Hello. Hi, my name is Wambui Kinyoa and I work in the Nairobi creative industry.

I work with artists, DJs. Before Corona, we always used to have.

That moment of like we go for a pre party somewhere, then now we go to the main party. You go into this club, you've just met your awesome people, there's amazing music playing. I don't know what more people want. The people you find are full of.

So much good vibes, but the good.

Vibes aren't in plentiful supply. Lately. Nightclubs have suffered more than most businesses during the pandemic. They exist for a kind of socializing that doesn't really fit social distancing effectively.

We've been closed since March last year.

Adrian Jones runs Corsica Studios, a trendy club in central London.

It's very sad more than anything that venues like ours and lots of other live music venues and clubs have just been decimated, I suppose. We had a full calendar for 2020. It was our 18th anniversary, so we had a whole series of shows lined up and we had no choice other than to close for obviously safety of customers, staff, everybody.

Vaccines are being rolled out, lockdowns are lifting, and clubbers are eager to start partying again. But for now, it'll be a far cry from the carefree pre Covid days.

The simple fact is, if you can't open your nightclub, or the only way to open it is with social distancing, regular hand washing and mask wearing, you're not going to have a particularly fun time.

Ethan Croft writes about culture for the Economist.

But club owners were struggling before the pandemic, and many of them have been struggling for a long time.

How badly has the industry been suffering because of the pandemic?

Specifically, the virus is particularly cruel to clubs. There are enclosed spaces full of lots of people dancing the night away. And these are the kind of places where COVID 19 tends to thrive. Nightclubs also gained a pretty bad reputation early on because because they were hotspots for super spreading events. The most famous of which was in Seoul, South Korea, where one man inadvertently infected tens of people in a string of gay clubs in that city. But there's also the problem that it's very hard to throw fun parties where everybody in the room is socially distanced. Capacity has been massively reduced. Everybody regularly has to wash their hands and wear masks. It's not a perfect combination for a good night out.

But along the way they have tried to adapt to pandemic restrictions.

A few clubs have been able to adapt. The Cowes club in Campinas, a city in Brazil, is now operating, but at a reduced capacity of 20%. It's very, very hard to make money with so few people coming into your clubs. To give an example of this, that particular club was opening once a week at most, before COVID 19 hit. Now they're opening at least five days a week, just in order to make ends meet. Some others have tried to reinvent themselves as markets or beer gardens. And some of the most famous clubs in Berlin, like Kitkat, a famous fetish club, where before the pandemic you would have found people wearing leather or not very much at all is now offering visitors COVID19 tests for €25 a pop in order to draw them back in.

But you say that clubs were struggling even before the pandemic. How so?

In much of Europe, for example, clubs have been in decline for many years. Over a decade, really. The problem of increasing rents and busybodying residents associations, you might call them NIMBYs, have made it hard for existing venues to survive, whether that was through financial pressure or the constant problem of noise complaints and disputes with neighbours. But then we also have the problem of licensing laws. These were relaxed across much of the continent early in this century. That means that pubs can stay open much longer than they used to and they therefore threaten nightclubs, which once had a monopoly over late night entertainment. Some other trends have worked against clubs as well. Young Europeans tend to drink less than they used to. They tend not to meet their partners in bars and clubs the way they used to because they prefer apps and they save up money for festivals in the summer rather than going out to clubs every Friday and Saturday night.

How do you think club owners and promoters and for their part, DJs, reverse the decline that's going on here, if not the prior part than the part imposed by the pandemic itself?

Clubs need to convince legislators, local governments and local people that clubs have a cultural value as well as a basic economic one. The way one person put it, to me it sounds quite strange, is that clubs actually make cities a lot safer. If you're sat alone at a bus stop late at night in a city centre, you may feel a lot less safe than if you're surrounded by jubilant partiers who've just poured out of a local nightclub?

But the immediate concern for club owners is COVID 19. What's it going to take to get clubs back at least to the way they were before the pandemic?

Some more optimistic clubbers and DJs think that rapid testing could be a way back inside clubs. Hasn't really materialized yet. The surest way to get back seems to be vaccination. But there's also a hope that people who've been stuck inside their houses for over a year now will be very keen to get back onto the dance floor when the world reopens and might just bring about another roaring 20s.

Ethan, thank you very much for joining us.

Thanks, Jason.

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. The show's editors are Marguerite Howell and Kim Gittleson. Our senior producers are Chris Impey, Hannah Mourinho and Sam Colbert. Our producers are Stevie Hertz and William Warren and assistant producer Jason Hoskin, with additional production help from Emily Elias. Our sound engineer is Daniel Lloyd Evans, and our trainee, Abesoye Ocean Dairo. We'll all see you back here on Monday.