Running for cover: our Ukraine-refugees special

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Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist in London. I'm Jason Palmer. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. Today we'll be taking three views of the flood of people displaced by the war in Ukraine in next door Poland. It's anything but a refugee crisis. The country has been organized as it's welcomed more than half of those fleeing Ukraine much further afield. My co host John Fassman has been speaking with new arrivals in Brighton Beach, a New York City neighborhood that's long been a destination for Eastern European emigrants. And there's an overlooked part of the vast displacement of people that the war is causing. Plenty of Russians are on the move too. We ask why so many of them are ending up in Turkey. Some 4.7 million people have fled Ukraine since the war began. They've set their sights on destinations throughout Europe and beyond. But for most, the first stop has been Poland. Many have stayed. Two and a half million of them. Last month, Alex Clapp went to a refugee center to speak with new arrivals about their experiences.

At the town of Korcheva in eastern Poland, refugees are arriving every day from Ukraine. Their buses bring them to a defunct shopping center off a busy road. It is a colossal building made of corrugated iron that's been painted blue and white. Outside the defunct Shopping complex. A bank of food trucks are serving apples and grilled cheeses to Ukrainian refugees, who are gathered in long but orderly lines. There are Polish police officers handing toys to children out of cardboard boxes. While the space and beds were provided by the government, the center is largely run by volunteers. There are people serving food, and there are drivers offering to take people further afield in Poland and Europe. Through the help of my interpreter, Ludwiga Vlodek, I spoke to the head of the volunteers, a man hired by the local governmental authorities, who spoke about the constant flow of people.

They have here. Refugees from all over the world, coming from Ukraine, most of them. These are Uzbeks and other former Soviet republics. Refugees are behaving really nicely. There is quite a calm and friendly atmosphere here. It's a place where they can rest after traveling from Ukraine and maybe make plans for the future.

To enter the shopping complex, you pass three or four Polish soldiers in fatigues. Inside, hundreds and hundreds of olive green army cots are arranged in neat rows. There are men sitting on these cots, sipping plastic cups of tea or typing on their phones. Women are chatting quietly to one another, exchanging stories of the last few days. When you talk to them, they describe the harrowing journeys that brought them here. This is Taisia, whom I spoke with again through my interpreter. So maybe we could just start with where she's from and how she got here.

So their flat was bombed and they had to escape. There were five people, three kids and parents. There were bombs everywhere. They were just running in panic. They didn't know where to go. And finally they came to the railway station and there were bombs, like next to them, next to the railway station, and kids just ran away. So for a moment they thought that they've lost their children. But finally they found them among other people. There were so many people at the railway station that she has never ever in her life saw that many people. It was so crowded. Finally they managed to get on the train. But in the train we stood for the whole trip, which took 20 hours, and they were breastfeeding women, also standing for 20 hours. They are still waiting until a new bomb will fall here. They just cannot get rid of this strange feeling.

Perhaps the most striking thing about the Korchova Refugee welcome center is the number of men that you meet. In late February, Ukraine's President Zelensky announced the imposition of martial law, which bars Ukrainian men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving their country. Yet at Korchova there are plenty of men.

My name is Eze Chukwuda Bello. You know, I live in Ukraine for 20 something years.

They are bombing houses everywhere, bombing shops.

People are dying.

My plan now is to find anywhere I can feed myself with my family.

And you have children?

I have a wife and my children over there. That's why I came here.

Most can leave Ukraine because they possess a second passport, often from a former Soviet republic, though occasionally from places as far away as Vietnam. Their trips back home, back to countries which many have never spent any real amount of time in, are being arranged and paid for by their native lands.

My name is Khurbonov Abdufato. I live in Ukraine. 18 years. I work in Ukraine, I study in Ukraine.

Many of the men you meet are relieved to have left Ukraine and to be in a position of relative safety with their families. But there is also a discernible feeling of guilt in their ranks, guilt over the fact that their old friends and colleagues and neighbors are stuck on the other side of the border fighting a war. This adds to the nervous tension of the welcome center. Its residents are constantly on their phones, plotting not just their next move, but also checking in on their loved ones still in Ukraine and often receiving no response. Unsurprisingly, almost everyone you meet at Korchova bears a personal animus against Vladimir Putin. It's one of the first things they want to discuss with you.

I am from Kharkiv. I'm Ukrainian. In my city, our people are strong, and Putin can't take our city with tanks.

This Russian speaking man from Kharkiv compared him to Alexander the Great before pausing and saying that Hitler was the more apt comparison.

But Putin want only one thing. His name, number one in history, doesn't matter. Good side or bad side doesn't matter. This is crazy work. Crazy work. One crazy man.

Many of the people I spoke with were also grateful for the help they had received. This, again through the translator, is Taisia, the refugee from Kharkiv that I spoke with earlier.

We are very proud of our country, and we just cannot believe that Russia is bombing Ukraine. We are very thankful to the European Union and Poland in particular, that they just opened their door and they gave some hope for the future. It's such a big contrast that one neighbor is shouting at us and destroying our country, and another one is just opening its door and helping us. It's such a contrast that I cannot believe it.

Poland opened its doors just as soon as the war began in February. But the sheer numbers of refugees may make it hard to keep them open.

Well, Poland has behaved in A really remarkable way, they've taken well over half of the 4 million plus refugees that have left Ukraine and they've looked after them awfully well.

Christopher Lockwood is the Economist's Europe editor.

It's the biggest refugee crisis Europe has seen since the Second World War, and it's been coped with in an exemplary manner.

What has Poland done for all these refugees?

Well, the Poles seem to have thought of everything. They have, right from the very start, set up information points and welcoming centres across the country. They have coordinated homes for people, they were given SIM cards, food for their pets, Social Security assistance, free food has been provide. Drivers have been turning up to take people where they want to go and they've been being given cash as well. So it's been really very thorough indeed.

And how have they coped with it so well? Why have they been so successful at this?

Well, in part, they had a dry run because there was a Syrian refugee crisis in 2015, but it's just been a really impressive mix of government and private citizens working together. The EU has been pretty fundamental here because right at the start, the EU invoked a temporary protection direct, which in effect gives Ukrainians the right to work, live, get social benefits in all member countries.

And you said that Poland had had something of a dry run with the Syrian migrant crisis in 2015, but that was not at all smooth, that was not at all a happy situation. What makes the difference this time around?

Well, this exodus is about three times the size of the wave of Syrians and others who came to Europe in 2015. And by the way, they mostly ended up going to Germany because Poland was not very welcoming at that time. Now, there's no getting away from the fact that some of this has to do with cultural and ethnic closeness, but a lot has to do with geopolitical reasons as well. Poland is extremely concerned about Russian expansionism and wants to do everything it can to help Ukrainians. There's a tremendous sympathy towards Ukrainians, which I think wasn't quite present in Syria, which was seen as just being a very long way away. Ukraine really is their backyard.

And so is there a limit to how many refugees Poland can support?

Well, the polls are saying that their major cities are really very full, particularly Warsaw, the capital, where the population has grown by about 15%. There isn't enough accommodation in some of these big cities. If the war drags on, then more people will come for sure. Now, one way to deal with Poland's problem is to move in the direction of a more European, maybe even a global system so that refugees can move from Poland to countries that have more ability to look after them and perhaps more need for their work. And one important factor will be whether people want to stay in Europe or go back to Ukraine. Many of their families will have been left there, so there'll be this great desire to go back to them. And of course, the people that have come to Poland and Europe do not have an indefinite right to stay in Europe. That will expire at some point unless it's extended or renewed. But my guess is that unless this war becomes a many years long phenomenon, that you will see people starting to go back quite quickly.

So you think that welcoming spirit in Poland will continue to prevail?

The Poles have been very patient and generous. You have to ask whether refugee fatigue will set in. We certainly saw that in Germany in 2015. It will be a little bit different this time. We're going through a time of extremely low unemployment in the Eurozone, particularly in Poland, actually, where there's tremendous demand for labour. That assumes, of course, that the economic situation will continue to be strong. But for now, Poland and Europe do seem to be managing pretty well.

Thanks very much for joining us, Christopher. Thank you. Poland may be hosting the lion's share of Ukrainians so far, but. But that means that more than 2 million people have found refuge elsewhere. Quite a few in America. And John, you've been going to meet some of them?

Yeah, I have. I recently went out to Brighton beach, which is a neighborhood in southern Brooklyn that has been a magnet for emigrants from the former Soviet Union for decades.

And they're seeing another wave of immigrants now.

They are. It was a sort of trickle just before the fighting started and now I think it's not exactly a flood, but it's definitely a steady stream. And it's different sort of refugee, I think, than you may be seeing in Poland or neighboring countries. In Ukraine, the refugees that make it here tend to have at least some capital or access to it. Right, because they have to be able to afford a plane ticket here. And they also have some connection to the U.S. usually it's often a family connection. They have a relative here who's able to take them in, but often really just barely able. You know, Brighton beach is not a wealthy area, but they'll often have at least a couch to sleep on and someone to help them get around. But the American immigration system is really burdened and Byzantine and almost kind of dysfunctional. So they're not getting much help from the, from the government.

So how is it that people are making their way there?

Well, a lot of different ways. I visited an immigration law clinic that was held at a ymca, you know, sort of a community center by the water in South Brooklyn. It was packed. There were lines out the door. I talked to two people in line outside the clinic, a woman from Odessa who said she'd been here for 23 years, but her children and grandchild just arrived. And a man sitting next to her, I think was a relative of hers, described their just incredible journey. It took them 17 days to get here. And the route was Ukraine to Moldova to Romania to Hungary to Holland to Mexico to San Diego and then to New York.

And you say it's neither a flood nor a trickle. Now, what kind of numbers are we talking about? How common is this situation?

Well, I talked to Sue Fox, who runs the shore front y where the clinic was held, and she said they'd seen 200 to 300 people already that day.

That one of our local elementary schools has reported that in the past three, three weeks they've seen 24 new students enrolled. So we know it is bigger than a trickle. It is bigger than a trickle.

And I think we're only at the beginning. Nationally, it's kind of tough to get an idea of numbers right now because people are coming sort of informally. And as you heard before, there are a variety of routes, right? People can fly into New York, they can come through Mexico. Joe Biden has said that he wants the US to take in 100,000 Ukrainian refugees. So American officials, according to CBS News, have processed almost 10,000 undocumented Ukrainians. So these are Ukrainians who have probably crossed the Mexican or Canadian land borders. And by way of comparison, there were 40,000 legal entries of Ukrainians who had permission to enter the U.S. they arrived by plane and had some sort of visa that allowed them to enter legally.

And so about that legal point, what are the routes in?

Well, the legal entries are people who already had visas, maybe to visit family. You can get a 10 year multi entry tourist visa. People may have lined up visas sort of as an escape route when things started looking tough. When it comes to staying here, Ukrainians who are in the country before March 1 are eligible for what's called temporary protected status. And what that means is they can stay here and work here for 18 months. But for those coming after March 1st and arriving from overseas, the options are a lot more challenging. As Ms. Fox told me, they were explaining these options to the migrants at the clinic.

They have the option of going in and listening to a presentation about potential of other options, humanitarian options, that they may be eligible for. Because it is extraordinarily hard to be telling people in the middle of this crisis you have no options. And there are some options. They are complicated. US Immigration is as complicated as complicated can be if they move to this.

You know, Sue's point about the complexity of the American immigration system, it really can't be overstated. It's really important. Colloquially, we refer to Ukrainians who show up here having fled conflict as refugees, but technically that's not correct. They're displaced people. People can only get refugee status when they're outside the United States. Now, I suspect Ukrainians coming here may want to claim asylum, which is another term we're familiar with. But incredibly, fleeing war is not a valid asylum claim. To be granted asylum, you have to show that in your home country that you've been persecuted, and if you go back, probably will be persecuted again on account of your race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or what the law says. Membership in a particular social group and fleeing war is not a valid reason to be granted asylum. Instead, they'll have to hope for what's called humanitarian parole. And that lets them live and work here legally for a year, provided they have a family member here. But it also makes them ineligible for refugee status. So it really is a strictly temporary measure that just gives them a year of relief.

And if the system is creaking so much, many of them won't get much of a reception when they get there.

If by reception you mean governmental help, that's almost certainly true. What they'll probably get is, is leave to stay here legally and work. But if they have humanitarian parole or if they get temporary protected status, that really does not come with much, if any, governmental help. So they'll get the option to stay here legally without worrying about being deported, but that's about it. But that doesn't seem to be a deterrent to people who are determined to come here. So they may not get much help from the government, but that doesn't seem to deter people from coming. And a lot of people who are arriving here are coming without belongings. As the woman from Odessa told me about her family, we have to buy.

Some clothes, because what they have, they have right now, no clothes.

So they need some help, I suppose they need some family help. They need some support to buy clothes. They need some subway tickets. And they're informal organizations that are giving this to them. But you have to remember also the family members who they're going to stay with here. They've been here For a long time. And a lot of them have made it without much help. No, I never ask. Never ask.

23 years old. I work. I work, I work.

I'm a teacher, but I work like.

Babysitter all the time in Manhattan.

And so right now, people are relying on community networks for support, and people are desperate. They've arrived here quickly, often after incredible trauma. I spoke to one woman named Oksana at the immigration clinic, And she was in Borodyanka, which is near Bucha. It's the suburb of Kyiv. When the Russians invaded. She was at their dacha there and under Russian bombardment. She had no water, no heat, no Internet. She and her family drove through the forest. And one of the things she said that's going to stick with me is that she was just praying to God to let them die together because she couldn't survive seeing her husband and children die. So eventually, fortunately, they made it out of the forest, and she and her son walked to Romania. She had a sister in Bucharest who bought her a plane ticket to the US To New York, where she has another sister. And she fortunately had a visa because her sister has been here for 26 years, and she came to visit. But what she wants is to be able to work and not rely on her sister. And so she's hoping, I think, for that humanitarian parole status we mentioned before.

And is it your sense that many of these refugees want to stick around in America?

I don't think most people do. That's just my sense. You know, it's not like the waves of emigrants coming here from the Soviet Union. In the late 70s, Jewish immigrants who came to Brighton beach were fleeing a country that had been quite cruel to them for centuries. Or the refugees who were coming in the 1990s who were fleeing a country that was falling apart. The people fleeing Ukraine, like Oksana, they had lives there. Oksana is an artist, as she told me. All her art is there, her work is there, her friends are there. They had lives there that Russia stole from them, and they want those lives back. But in the short term, people like Oksana and others who are arriving, they just need to be able to stay here legally and work here legally and safely. And I think that's what everyone wants.

John, thanks for getting out of the host seat and doing some reporting for us.

Anytime, Jason.

Not everyone who flees is a refugee, and not everyone who's leaving home because of the war is Ukrainian. Lots of Russians are upping sticks, too. A mostly well educated, liberal slice of the country going into voluntary exile to avoid Vladimir Putin's dictatorship, Western sanctions or persecution.

There's a quote that says when you sit in shit too long, it stops smelling. This is actually what's happening in Russia.

Arseny is a fashion photographer from Russia who's long felt persecuted because of his sexuality. But it's taken the war in Ukraine to push him to leave for Istanbul.

As a part of LGBTQ community. I never been happy to live in Russia, but I get used to it. I live in Russia with the same reason that thousand people did, because our country started at war with Ukraine and.

That felt like we're no longer the.

Part of the society that support this.

We don't want to be the part.

Of society that meant to support this.

I don't feel well to pay taxes there. I don't feel well to anyhow giving the money to this government because I.

Know that it's especially in the time like this is going to go to.

Supporting the Russian army, which is horrible. There is no place for people like me right now because there will be no work for a while because fashion.

Is something that you cannot do in.

When there is a war and when there is economic almost default.

So, no, I don't feel like I'm.

Gonna get back in Russia.

Sadly, stories like Arseni's are all but too familiar in Istanbul.

Piotr Zalebsky is the Economist's Turkey correspondent.

Turkey's biggest city has been a favorite among Russian tourists for decades, but today it has become a temporary haven for Russia. Russians escaping Vladimir Putin's dictatorship.

So why Turkey in particular?

According to Turkish Media, at least 14,000 Russians are estimated to have moved to Turkey since the start of the war. The number may be much higher because it is tough to distinguish between those Russians who are coming here as tourists and those who are coming here as tourists, but who intend to. Perhaps with the exception of some countries in Central Asia post Soviet republics, those Russians have few other places to go. All European Union countries have banned flights from Russia. Turkey, meanwhile, has not. And Turkey also allows Russians to enter without a visa.

And so what are the demographics here? Who is it that's leaving Russia and attempting to stick around in Turkey?

For the most part, These are young people. These are young professionals, bankers, lawyers, journalists, artists, and computer programmers. And they are fleeing Russia because they opposed the war. Some fled because they face the risk of conscription, and some may have fled for economic reasons. They are fleeing an economy that has been ravaged by Western sanctions over the past month. On Telegram, a messaging app, the newcomers are Exchanging tips on things like setting up a Turkish bank account, finding affordable accommodation, or applying for permanent residence in Turkey. But it's probably worth pointing out that aside from those young Russians who are fleeing Putin, some Russian oligarchs seem to be surfacing in Turkey as well, and they are fleeing not Russia, but Western sanctions.

Aside from those latter cases, you mentioned a demographic that is a big slice of the skilled labor force. How damaging is it that they're all leaving Russia?

This is part of a larger brain drain problem that Russia has had to cope with over the past decade or two. It seems that most of the Russians who left since 2000 are people aged between 25 and 45 and highly educated. A survey by the Atlantic council revealed that 36% of those had a master's degree or a doctorate. And in fact, Istanbul was the scene of a mass exodus of Russians in the 1920s. Some 200,000 Russians, Ukrainians, Azeris and Georgians fled to Istanbul fleeing Bolshevik rule.

But you mentioned some of these exiles are looking into permanent residency. Is there a hope among them for a post Putin Russia?

I think a lot of them say that they will not go back to Russia as long as Putin is in power. A lot of them are coming terms with the possibility of having to spend the rest of their lives, or at least the next few years, living in exile. And so this is an interesting parallel with those Russians of the 1920s. In the 1920s, nearly all of the Russian emigres moved on to Europe. Today, most Russians in Istanbul would also like to move on. The problem is that many European consulates do not seem very eager to give visas to Russians. And so we are seeing some evidence of Russians settling in Turkey. And so it seems that as long as Vladimir Putin wages war on Ukraine and on anyone who opposes his invasion, people he refers to as a fifth column. Istanbul and Turkey will remain a way station for many of Russia. Best and brightest.

Piotr, thank you very much for your time.

Thank you for having me.

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