Sahel of a mess: France’s impossible peacekeeping mission

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Hello and welcome to the Intelligence on Economist Radio. I'm your host Jason Palmer. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective.

On the events shaping your world.

This week, Peru's Congress booted out its president again. For decades, the country has lurched from one leader to another, often amid graft allegations. Now, with the pandemic raging and a fragmented political scene, stability looks ever more distant. And in Sweden, booze is only sold in government run shops. Until recently, no one mined it, thanks to a strong temperance movement. But small producers are itching to sell directly to tourists and the state monopoly may not pass. Go. First up though, Jihadists are entrenching themselves ever further. In the Sahel, a continent wide strip of semi arid land just south of the Sahara Desert, there are former Islamic State fighters ousted from the Middle East, Al Qaeda associates and a number of ethnic militias. The Sahel's hinterlands are far from any city. State laws don't hold. Public services barely exist. Last year, nearly 5,000 people died in battles or acts of terror in the region, a six fold increase on 2016. An estimated 4 million people have fled their homes. This week, 60 world leaders are among those who have gathered online for the Paris Peace Forum, where the crisis is being discussed. A United nations peacekeeping force has a remit to patrol and to help rebuild the embattled region. But most combat missions against the jihadists are led by several thousand French troops, some of whom are based near the city Gao in Mali.

Well, we arrived in Gao by plane, but then took a French military helicopter which flew at low altitude, extremely fast for about an hour to get to this advanced base that they've built out there in the middle of the Sahel.

Sophie Petter is our Paris bureau chief.

An extraordinary region. I mean, absolutely vast, nothing in any direction, almost no human habitation, a few acacia trees, the occasional goat herd and a tiny settlement, but that's about it. And then you arrive in the middle of this dusty zone, red coloured sand, where the soldiers who've made it all the way from France had just finished a month long operation against jihadists. So these were both regular French soldiers, but also special forces. The most recent of these operations, they killed several dozen jihadists. They seized weapons, motorbikes, fuel and food. And one of them just described it all to me, said it was intense. There were violent encounters on the ground. This is real proper combat that the French soldiers are engaged in there.

And how significant is the French presence in the region?

Well, the French have over 5,000 troops as part of this operation that they call Barcan. It's by far the biggest contributor to any of the operations in the region. There is a UN peacekeeping operation with over 13,000 soldiers, but no single country contribute as many as the French do. There are 250 British, for example, are due to arrive soon. There are 350 Germans there. But in effect, what is obvious once you're there is how the real combat operations fall to the French. Conditions are tough, it's extremely hot, there's sand everywhere, it's grueling and it's risky.

How risky?

Well, last year was the region's deadliest for years. There was a particularly nasty incident at the end of the year when The French lost 13 elite soldiers in a helicopter crash. But local soldiers from Niger and Mali have also been on the receiving end of terrorist attacks. Niger lost 71 soldiers in one attack, then there was another that took out 50 from Mali. So it's a constant vigilance and there's a constant sense of vulnerability, even for the armed forces operating out there.

But why is it that France has chosen to take the lead, to be the country with the greatest presence on the ground?

Well, France historically has links to the region. It is the former colonial power which also causes something of a problem now because it gets accused of acting in a sort of neocolonial way. And France also has permanent military bases out there, so it becomes a sort of natural partner for crises. In the past, I think that the French have really tried to change their strategy. This year, Emmanuel Macron hosted a summit at the beginning of the year with the leaders of the five Sahel countries, and the idea is to try and share some of the burden, to make sure that the French are more supported on the ground by other European countries. For example, I saw Estonians there, I saw a Swedish officer, but also to try and get the regional armies to do a better job themselves. And that was very clear in the descriptions that I heard of the operations where they were working really very closely alongside Malian and Nigerien forces in some of these operations against the jihadists. In June, Macron emphasized his commitment to the operation, which is partly about the fight against terrorism, but it's also about return of governance and development for the region in which he wanted to work with local governments on a much closer basis.

And is that big French presence making any real difference to the levels of jihadist violence in the Sahel?

Well, I think it's important to look and think of it in terms of different regions and where we were. So that was in the sort of central north, central Mali. I spoke to General Mark Conray, who commands the Operation Barcan. Overall, He actually said he was very satisfied with the recent operations there. I think the French sense that they've really dealt a blow to what they call a Daesh, or Islamic State in the greater Sahara. And the general said they haven't disappeared, but they don't have the same capacity to cause trouble that they did at the end of last year. So I think there is progress in that particular zone where they've been conducting these intense operations. Of course, the problem remains that they can operate in one area, but they certainly can't operate all over the country. And that's where jihadism remains a big problem.

And so what prospect then for actually paring back their presence?

I think it's incredibly difficult. You know, I think the French are condemned, in a sense, to stay in the Sahel. There's no plans to leave or to withdraw all their forces at all. I mean, it's more a question of trying to share the burden, more the adversary. They're up against, these jihadist groups, they are incredibly mobile. They're nomadic. They move about on motorbikes and pickup trunks, and they can just disappear into the bush in a way that for the French forces, it just makes it very difficult to contain and to target.

And so it sounds as if the only option then is to draw in more international help. I mean, how hard will that be?

There is help on the ground. The Americans in particular provide absolutely crucial intelligence support to the operation. The British operate three Chinook helicopters there as well as part of Barkan, and they airlift French vehicles and troops into the combat zones and even on special forces, which is obviously much more sort of clandestine operations. But the Estonians are there and there are some Czechs and Swedish special forces due to arrive soon. So European countries are helping France, but they aren't at the same time exactly lining up to offer these combat troops. And I think France sometimes feels that it's doing this job very much alone.

But the situation you describe is probably not going to be massively changed by a few dozen or a few hundred special forces even.

You know, it's an incredibly difficult situation. I think the best that the French are hoping to do is to try and contain the threat, to try and secure areas and enable Malians to go back to their homes and to live in a more sense of security in some parts of the country. But it's not about defeating the enemy across the entire country. I think that much is clear.

Sophie, thank you very much for joining us.

Thanks very much, Jason.

For nearly an hour on Monday, Peru's President, Martin Vizcarra pled with lawmakers not to oust him from office over corruption allegations. But by a vote of 105 to 19, with four abstentions, the country's Congress voted to impeach him. As he left the presidential Pizarro Palace, Mr. Vizcarra said his conscience was at peace and his duty fulfilled. His supporters took to the streets in protest and said his impeachment amounted to a coup. Mr. Vizcarra is the second president in three years to be toppled by Peru's Congress. His removal comes at a perilous time.

For the country, which is facing one.

Of the world's deadliest outbreaks of COVID 19 and a rapidly shrinking economy.

Congress basically used a constitutional provision that allows them to impeach a president on grounds that he is morally unfit to govern.

Lucien Chauvin writes about Peru for the Economist.

It's a relatively easy way to get rid of a president that Congress does not like. They don't need to present evidence. They don't need to present any kind of real argument. They can just decide that he or she is unfit.

So the constitutional provision is for moral unfitness.

I mean, what exactly are the allegations against Mr. Vizcarra?

The allegations are that he took kickbacks when he was governor of the small southern state of moquegua from. From 2011 to 2014. It's a very complicated case in that two witnesses came forward. They claimed that he received the money, but they have yet to provide any evidence that this actually happened. Congress, however, took those testimonies at face value and used them to support the charge that he was morally unfit to govern.

So what happens now? He's been removed. Who's next in line?

So the president was summarily removed on Monday, which immediately triggered the constitutional change of hands, allowing for the speaker of Congress, Congressman Manuel Merino, to take over. He was sworn in on Tuesday morning, and he said he would respect the constitution, he would respect the separation of powers. And most importantly for Peruvians, he said that he would ensure that upcoming elections take place as planned.

And so to your mind, does that look like a peaceful, stable handover of power?

In some ways, yes. I think that former President Vizcarra set the stage on Monday night, saying that he would not legally challenge the impeachment and that he would go home and start working on his defense. Manuel Merino faces a huge number of problems. Peru's economy continues to struggle under the pandemic. It shrank by more than 15% in the first eight months of this year and is going to shrink probably by about 12% year on year in 2020. And Peru is still struggling with the pandemic. It has around 35,000 deaths, and according international trackers, it's number three in the world for per capita deaths.

And how have Peruvians reacted to this swift impeachment?

The business sector basically did what everyone expected. Came out saying that they wanted a smooth transition, that they hoped that the country would allow Marino to form a government, and that most importantly, that he follow the set schedule for elections. Civil society groups, however, have been protesting. They believe that this is a veiled coup. You had major protests in Lima, the capital, and other cities. In Lima, the police arrested 27 people you've had for the past two nights, people banging pots from their balconies, from their windows to protest this. A lot of it has to do with the fact that former President Vizcara, although he faced a lot of problems, enjoyed a great deal of popularity. His popularity was averaging close to 60% when he was ousted from the presidency.

And you've been reporting on the region for 20 years, and you've seen this story before.

The issue with Peru's political system is that it has been in serious trouble since 1990. Throughout the 1990s, you had a President Alberto Fujimori, who systematically undermined the system. And then he was impeached 20 years ago this month, also on the same charge that he was morally unfit to govern. And that came amazing amidst a massive corruption scandal. You know, one of the telling points is, if you look at Peru, every president since 2001 has serious legal problems. I mean, you have two presidents who are under house arrest, you have a president who committed suicide to avoid arrest, and you have a president waiting to be tried on corruption. And now you have former President Vizcarra. This does not bode well for Peru's political system.

Well, with that in mind, then how do you see this playing out?

You know, the big issue right now is that the Merino government ensure that planned elections for next April 11th go forward. The campaign is already underway. You have 24 parties, the largest in Peru's history, able to field candidates. This kind of speaks to the fragmentation going into these elections. So I think it is going to be a very complicated five months with an interim government trying to organize, while at the same time, 24 different political parties that run the gamut from Maoist to radically conservative attempt to convince voters that they should be leading the country to come July 2021.

And that assumes none of those candidates.

Is scared by what's just happened.

I'm certain that all of the contenders for the 2021 presidential race are also looking at what has just happened and how easy it is for Congress to impeach a president, basically saying that he or she is morally unfit to govern. You know, it sets up the possibility that the next president, whoever that may be, faces the same kind of situation that we've seen in the past few years.

Lucien, thank you very much for your time.

Great. And thank you, Jason. It's been a real pleasure.

You'll find lots more on the ground analysis from our network of correspondents around the world in the Economist. Get a great introductory offer on a subscription@Equality.com IntelligenceOffer the link is in the show notes.

The Aarhus vineyard is in Skne county, which is on Sweden's Baltic coast. And it's not the kind of place you'd usually find a vineyard. It's cold for one.

That's Beau Franklin, our assistant news editor. Lately he's been looking into the small booze producers of the Swedish countryside.

But since 2005, a group has been cultivating vines on a hectare of farmland there, and last year they produced around 3,000 bottles. As well as making wine, they welcome visitors and tourists. This summer, they saw a rush of interest from Swedish oenophiles holidaying at home because of the pandemic.

We had an enormous interest of coming to the vineyard, getting guided tours and also taste our wines.

I interviewed one of the managers of the vineyard, Karin Burch, and she told me that she kept getting the same request.

Every group that came, we got the question, can we buy a bottle as a souvenir? And I had to say no.

And why is that? Why won't she sell the wine?

Sweden for a long time has had a state monopoly on alcohol sales. Today there are 446 shops called Systembolaget, and they're the only place where Swedes can buy alcohol stronger than 3.5%, apart from bars and restaurants. And similar monopolies like this exist in other Nordic countries. Finland and Denmark have the same arrangement as well, but it's pretty popular with Swedes.

But why is that? That seems restrictive, in particular in the case of this vineyard.

Yeah. So there've long been concerns in Nordic countries over the health and social problems caused by alcohol consumption. And some people say it's to do with the fact that it's dark and cold and there's nothing else to do but drinking. But temperance movements, the social movements against alcohol consumption, are the real originators of this. So in the 19th and early 20th centuries, these movements were very powerful, often linked to the church as well. And In Sweden in 1922, there was a referendum on complete prohibition of alcohol consumption, and that only narrowly failed. Then after that they had a rationing system which wasn't very successful. So in 1955, these systenbolage shops were set up and the state took a complete monopoly on the sale of alcohol.

And Swedes broadly are still happy with that system.

Yeah. So about 3/4 of Swedes today support the system, and that's up from about half in 2001. So it's more popular than ever. And that's because the shops themselves are really nice to shop in. They have a really good selection of alcohol. They prioritise local producers. But that said, there are some people who would like to buy alcohol in places other than the state run shops. And the state's grip on booze sales might be about to weaken. So last year, in exchange for propping up the minority government, the Centre Party, which is a moderate party, negotiated a consultation into something called farm sales. And this would allow producers like the vineyard Aarhus to sell directly to customers. So whether that's visitors or tourists. And the idea is surprisingly controversial.

How so?

The IAGT nto, which is a big temperance movement in Sweden. It has about 50,000 members now. They insist that farm sales aren't really a way to get small producers selling to visitors. And they in fact think it's a Trojan horse that will end up letting big producers flog their wares on the open market and therefore get around the idea of a state monopoly on alcohol sales. There's a couple of bits of evidence they have for this. For one, they say that a lot of the lobbying effort for farm sales is coming from big multinationals. And they also point out that the Swedish Farmers association, which is a big trade body, has argued against putting a size limit on sales, so not just restricting it to these kind of small local producers.

And what's the Centre Party's interest in this? Why is it negotiating for that change?

So I spoke to a Centre Party MP for Skrner, Sophia Nilsson, and she insists that it's not a way to get rid of the alcohol monopoly by the back door, but it really is about boosting tourism and jobs in the places where alcohol is made, like the countryside.

And we can see that in many countries, visits to breweries and distilleries are among the most popular and well visited destinations. And we want to make that able in Sweden as well.

She acknowledges that the government consultation will take some time and may not ever happen at all. But she was pretty optimistic that in a couple of years time she'd be able to cycle round Skne, stop at a vineyard like Aarhus and buy a bottle of wine for dinner.

Oh, thanks very much for joining us.

Thanks, Jason, Taxa, Mik.

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. If you like us, give us a rating on Apple Podcasts and see you back here tomorrow.