Sana’a sunrise: A ceasefire in Yemen

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Hello, and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist in London.

I'm Jason Palmer and from New York, I'm John Fassman. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

The new Indian drama, the Kashmir Files is a blunt, brutal depiction of attacks in the 1990s and in which Islamic extremists killed 200 Hindus. India's leadership loves the film. The narrative fits all too neatly with its Hindu nationalist program.

And Brazil is the home of Neymar, Pele and Ronaldinho. It has won five World cup titles, more than any other country. But recently, another sport has been taking root there. One more often associated with English summer afternoons and packed Indian stadiums. But first, Yesterday, the head of Yemen's newly formed eight person presidential council, Rashad Al Ahlimi, was sworn into office. He and his seven colleagues are now charged with leading the country through a particularly fragile moment. Since 2015, a grueling war between Houthi rebels and a Saudi led coalition has claimed tens of thousands of lives. But two weeks ago, a two month ceasefire was agreed and violence has dropped to its lowest level in years. It's the first time since 2016 that both sides have agreed to a nationwide truce.

The coming weeks will be a test of the party's commitment to uphold their obligations. This is a time to build trust and confidence, which is not easy after more than seven years of conflict.

And while previous efforts to end the brutal conflict have fallen through, some say a longer term peace agreement could be on the horizon.

The ceasefire has not been perfect so far. Unsurprisingly, there have been accusations of violations on both sides from the Houthis and the Saudi led coalition fighting against them. But we can say the fighting has dropped significantly over the past few weeks and it's given Yemenis a needed bit of relief, especially during the Ramadan holiday.

Greg Karlstrom is a Middle east correspondent for the Economist.

There's some hope amongst diplomats that the truce at the very least could be extended, if not lead to some kind of a more durable ceasefire.

And Greg, how did we get here? Give us a summary of how the fighting began.

Initially, the Saudi involvement in the war began in 2015. They led a coalition that invaded Yemen after the Houthis seized large parts of the country, including the capital. They called the invasion Operation Decisive Storm. They thought within a matter of weeks they could dislodge the Houthis from power. Instead, it has become this seven year quagmire that has been absolutely catastrophic for the people of Yemen. An estimated 377,000 of them have died, either from fighting or from hunger and disease. The United nations estimates that around 17 million Yemenis don't get enough to eat. Three quarters of the population relies on aid to survive. About half of the hospitals in the country are no longer working. There are fuel shortages in the north. It has become an absolute humanitarian disaster over the past seven years. It's also not been good for the coalition. For the Saudis in particular, this has been an expensive war. It has cost them probably tens of billions of doll at this point. It has been a big blow to their diplomatic standing around the world, particularly in Western capitals. And it's exposed both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to missile and drone attacks by the Houthis that have become increasingly accurate over the past seven years.

So, Greg, it sounds like both sides have reason to come to the table. What are the terms for the ceasefire underway?

There are a few points in this truce that are meant to provide some modest humanitarian relief for people in Yemen. For example, the port of Hodeida, which is the country's main port, it's under Houthi control. It's been largely blockaded by the coalition for the past few years. And that's what has led to these fuel shortages in parts of the country. Under the terms of the ceasefire, the coalition has agreed to allow 18 fuel tankers to offload their cargo there. The first two did so earlier this month. That should go some way towards alleviating the fuel shortages in Houthi controlled areas. Also, the airport in the capital, Sana', a, which has been largely closed to commercial traffic since 2016. The coalition has agreed to allow two commercial flights a week in and out of the city. That's meant, for example, to allow Yemenis who need medical treatment that is not available in the country to fly outside to receive medical care. Those haven't started yet. There are still some questions around exactly who will be allowed to board these flights. There are some technical issues around reopening the airport, but that has been promised. There's also been talk of reopening roads, highways into the central city of Taz, which has been under largely a blockade by the Houthis for the past few years. So all of this meant to be humanitarian gestures for the population of Yemen. They are small gestures given the scale of the crisis there, but they are a welcome bit of relief for many people.

But do you think they're enough to build on? Do you think the ceasefire will last?

I would say many of the Yemenis that you speak to are not optimistic that it will. And I think if you want to see one reason for pessimism, look at the city of Marib, which is east of the capital. That's been the focal point of fighting in Yemen for more than a year now. It's the largest city still under the government's control. It's home to about 3 million people. It's also home to most of Yemen's oil resources. And so it's become a focal point for fighting. The Houthi have been quite keen to take it, and they've been leading an offensive there for more than a year at great cost to their own military forces. Now, things have calmed down a bit during the ceasefire. The fighting there has not been as heavy, but it has continued. There have been strikes on the city. And people in Marib say that the Houthis are using the ceasefire as a time to reinforce their military positions around the city in anticipation, perhaps a larger offensive in the future. So for the Houthis, it seems despite this temporary respite, they are still determined to take this very strategic city when they do decide to make another push, that will, of course, certainly jeopardize the broader ceasefire in Yemen.

And so that's one side of the combatants. What about the other? The Saudi coalition, what have they been doing recently?

The hope for the coalition Right now is not just that the ceasefire could lead to a more durable peace, but also that political change on their side could make it easier to strike a peace deal. We saw earlier this month President Hadi, who had run the country for about 10 years, who was backed by the Saudis, finally stepping down and resigning and ceding power under pressure by the Saudis, a new presidential council. This was long overdue. Many Amnes were happy to see him go. He was a corrupt and ineffective leader, entirely too weak to be a battlefield leader or to negotiate a peace with Houthis. He's been replaced now by a council of eight members who are meant to hold the powers of the presidency. And the idea there is that they're going to form a united front. They're going to stitch together all of the disparate sort of anti Houthi camps in Yemen, either to fight the group more effectively or to broker some kind of a peace deal. But whether that's going to work or not, it's too early to say. And there are reasons to be skeptical that it will. Yemen has a history of presidential councils. They've never worked in the past. And if you look at the makeup of this council, that includes, for example, an Islamist group from northern Yemen and a secessionist group from southern Yemen that wants to restore an independent South Yemen, as was the case until 1990, these two groups don't like each other. They have fought on the battlefield repeatedly over the past few years. They have a very different vision of how Yemen should look going forward. And the idea that they are going to somehow work together, share power and form a united front against the Houthis. And I think there are reasons to be skeptical about that.

What do you think happens next?

If you look a little further down? The Saudis very much would like to get out of this war at this point because it has been so costly for them in so many ways. And I think between the ceasefire and this political shakeup that they engineered earlier this month, they are looking for some face saving way to make an exit from the war. They had very maximalist goals in the beginning. When they first invaded, they wanted the Houthis completely out of power and sent back to their strongholds in the north. At this point, they have dropped those demands and they would be willing to accept some kind of power sharing agreement. The underlying problem is though, there was an intra Yemeni conflict before the Saudis invaded. There was a civil war that predated the coalition's invasion. And even if the Saudis find some way to make their own exit from the conflict. There is still going to be this underlying conflict between groups who very often see this as a zero sum competition. You have all of these armed groups and political factions that have gained power since 2015 and are loath to give it up. So even if the coalition finds a way out of the war, what is likely to happen inside of Yemen is this sort of steady process of disintegration. Where in the south you will have secessionist groups who pursue as much autonomy as they can. They'll do that with the backing of the uae. In the north, you might have some sort of awkward power sharing arrangement between the Houthis and other factions. And then you'll have parts of the country that are simply ungoverned, that are under the control of some non state actor rather than the central government. So I think for all the optimism of the moment about the truce and this political change that took place, I think it's just as likely that what's going to happen is this will be a lull in intermission before another round of fighting.

All right, Greg, thanks so much for joining us.

Thank you.

Bollywood films are often associated with lavish costumes, romantic dramas and highly choreographed dance numbers. But the latest Hindi language hit has none of these traits.

No mention of Exodus.

No Exodus.

Nahi genocide inside cinemas the Kashmir Files starts with a disclaimer. This film, it states, does not claim accurateness or factuality of historic events. Then it hits viewers with a barrage of violence. The brutal drama depicts Islamist extremists murdering hundreds of Hindus. Some people claim it reveals long buried truths. One such person being the country's leader.

Narendra Modi, India's prime minister has hailed the Kashmir Files as a seminal and important movie.

Max Rodenbeck is the Economist's South Asia Bureau chief.

The story revolves around a very real tragedy in the history of Kashmir, the story of the Kashmiri Pandits. And Modi's political party, the Bharati Janata Party, or bjp, has been so keen to spread the message that it's scrapped local entertainment tax on this particular movie.

So what is this story? What is the Kashmiri Files about?

It tells in a kind of docudrama form the story of the Kashmiri Pandits, a very ancient community of high caste Hindus who used to make up about 5% of the population in the Kashmir Valley. And this is a community that's aboriginal. They've been there for millennia. But in the 1990s, this community was targeted by Islamist extremists backed by Pakistan during a particularly cataclysmic surge in violence in the state. The police could not give them protection. The actually instructed them to leave the state. So most of them fled. And during the violence, official reports and scholarly research suggests that more than 200 Kashmir Pandits were killed.

And so how does the film tell this story?

It tells the story through the story of one family that's kind of broadened out, but basically it tells it with a lot of violence. Within the first 15 minutes of the film we have Muslim bad guys betraying their neighbors, Muslim kids beating up Hindu kids, Muslim mobs chanting convert or die. It's kind of relentless, actually. There are scenes showing Muslims insulting Hindu gods. And by the end of the film, the awfulness of Muslims in general is just drummed into the viewer. There are just no good Muslims in this movie at all. And it's not just Muslims alone, but anyone who, who opposes the kind of Hindu nationalist version of events is ridiculed. Whiny leftists, whiny intellectuals and craven politicians who all conspire to make the Kashmiri Pandits victims.

So it's this Hindu nationalist point of view that resonates with Mr. Modi, I gather.

Yeah, there's another side of the story, but that's not what's in the film. And it's true that no one has particularly told the story specifically of the Kashmir Pandavids, but they were a small minority in a place with a lot more people. The story of Kashmir is much more complicated than this part of the tragedy. Muslims in the Kashmir Valley make up more than 95% of the population. And during the worst of the violence, Starting from the 1990s, many, many people have been killed. The numbers are something like 14,000 civilians, 5,000 Indian soldiers, and as many as 22,000 of the militants and terrorists and various gun toters who were killed in the past 30 years in the Valley. That compares with about 200 Kashmir Pandits. Their tragedy is terrible and it was an abhorrent event. But this particular film just trades any nuance for simplicity. And in the process it really vilifies Muslims to an almost absurd degree.

And how's it landing at the box office?

It's been a huge hit at the box office. Promotion from the government helps and it's made more than $25 million since its opening in the middle of March. A record for a post pandemic film. It's a very emotive movie, so it's inspired a lot of emotional responses. Right wing groups have used showings of the film to stir up crowds and stir up anti Muslim hate in theaters across India. And there are of course many Muslims and many Hindus in the country who are appalled by the film's message. And you know, it's been reported that dissenters have actually been shouted out of cinemas or even attacked. So it's become really controversial across India.

And what about critics? What do they make of it?

It has not gotten very good critical reception. I mean, it's been mixed and it's fallen in polarized way across political lines. Some of the most watched TV news shows in India, which are generally pro government, have lauded it as a great historical drama, a kind of righting of wrongs and telling of a story that's been hidden from the public, which is not true. Everyone's known about this story of the Pandits, but it just hasn't been dramatized in this way. The film is dominating a lot of discussion in India. Networks are dedicating hours of programming to it. There are political controversies when some political parties have criticized the film and then been attacked by the government. There was an attack on the home of the chief minister of Delhi.

Basically.

The mayor of Vidna's capital, by a group of youths from the nationally ruling BJP, the party of the Prime Minister, Mr. Modi, simply because the chief minister of Delhi had made some remarks suggesting that it was a bit one sided. Merely criticizing the film and saying that the city of Delhi is not going to drop taxes on this film.

And so far we've been talking about a national level reaction. What about in the Kashmir region itself?

Well, in the Kashmir valley the film has been met with almost complete silence. One reason for that is that cinemas have actually been closed in the region since the wave of violence in the 1990s. So there are no cinemas to show it at and there's only actually one cinema which is in a kind of closed government compound. So the public has not seen it. But for a lot of residents of Kashmir who are living in a state of tension until the present, they find the support that this film has gotten from the government as an ominous sign. It is just three years ago, 2019, that the government imposed direct rule on what had been a semi autonomous state, the state of Jammu and Kashmir. And since then the BJP has cracked down very violently and relentlessly on dissent of any kind. So in our reporting we found one scholar based in the valley who told us that Kashmiri's fear that this film is a kind of prelude to more serious oppression in the future. What he said was that this film will be used as a justification for whatever injustices the government is doing now or in the future. So there's a lot of trepidation, actually.

What's your take on that? Do you think this is to be seen as laying the ground for something worse in future?

Well, to some extent, yes, because the trajectory of the last few months has been towards isolating and, not to put too fine a point on it, persecution of Muslims in India. There is real worry, and it's not just in Kashmir region, about what's happening in the future. India is a very large country. Many things happen in different corners of India. It's difficult to predict what's happening. But the fact is that Muslims in India really are very worried right now.

Max, thanks very much for joining us.

Thank you so much, Jason.

Mention the words Brazil and sport, and for most people it's soccer or football that comes to mind. But lately, interest among Brazilians has been growing in another sport that is more commonly associated with England or India, cricket. It's taking off, especially among women players. And in one city, cricket's popularity has even surpassed that of football among children.

So Posos de Caldas is a city of around 170,000 people in the southeast of Brazil. It's not exactly where you'd expect to find a cricket revolution, but in the center of the city you can find just that.

Giorgio Banjo writes about foreign affairs for the Economist.

So I arrived at this pantry club and it was just a really surprising sight. There were lots of people playing cricket, most of them women. There was funk music playing. People were having fun. It was a really relaxed environment. And then the other really interesting thing about Posos is that the people who are leading this cricket revolution, if you like, are women. So there's 14 professional cricket players in Brazil. The national center for cricket is in Posa, and all of those professionals are women.

When did Brazilians themselves start playing cricket?

The first cricket that arrived in Brazil, it was in the mid19th century. It was played by British expats who were there to build the railways in Brazil. And this was not a game really played by Brazilians at all. But now this is definitely beginning to change. I think there's been a few different attempts to get Brazilians playing cricket, but by far the most successful, I think began about two decades ago when Matt Featherstone, who's this ex player from Britain, moved to Brazil for love. And once he arrived, he noticed that there was a street version of cricket called taco. It's played by kids. They use bottles instead of stumps. Many of them use a rolled up Ball of socks or some other makeshift ball. And it's a fun game that's quite popular in cities. And so Matt noticed that this could be easily adapted into cricket. He started encouraging them to bowl overarm, not under tweaked a few things and then had these kids playing a more traditional version of cricket.

And so how did it develop from there?

I think the great thing about cricket is there's a very strong sense of camaraderie. It's a very community focused sport. And in possess they really tried to build that over time. And by 2009 it had become a regular program organised by Cricket Brazil. They've got teams for the blind, for disabled kids, they have a scholarship program that puts good players through university and then gets them back into the communities coaching kids. And the really remarkable thing about Parsas now is that over 5,000 children now play cricket, which is actually more than the number of kids who play football in the city, Georgia.

I mean, that seems extraordinary to me that cricket is now more popular than football anywhere in Brazil. It's just remarkable. And also that so many women are playing professionally. Why do you think that is?

I think the big difference in Brazil and also other non traditional cricketing countries like Thailand, is that they did not have that historical sexism in the game. So in countries like England or India, for a long time it was only men who played cricket. In Brazil, hardly any Brazilians played cricket. So when it came to deciding to develop a national team in Brazil, it made more sense to focus on developing the women's team. They'd have less ground to make up upon other cricketing countries and that's what they've done. And the women are doing really well. They're ranked a lot higher than the men are and they've also become local celebrities, really, in Posos.

It sounds to me like cricket is unusually popular in Posos. What do you think the chances are that it could become a national sport, that more Brazilians could take it up?

So I think it's still early days for cricket in Brazil, but already it's got a lot of fans. So one of those fans is actually the mayor of Posos. He's very confident that soon it can spread to the whole of Brazil. And I think already we're starting to see that that's happening. So Cricket Brazil is building a federation of teams which will play in Salvador, in the northeast, Brasilia and in Sao Paulo. And within the next five years they're aiming to have 30,000 players in the region around Posos as well. So it's growing very quickly. There's a lot of enthusiasm, and it looks possible that it could soon become a big sport in Brazil.

Georgia, thanks so much for joining us today.

Thanks so much, John.

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