Soldiers’ fortune: Ukraine’s prisoner swap

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The Economist. Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist. I'm your host, Jason Palmer. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. The biggest, most international, most recognizably American brand used to have an easy job selling into the global marketplace. Used to? We look at a costly backlash and I can't resist calling it a bull market in Brazil. But it's also a cow market. Bidders buy shares in bovine assets, pay astronomical sums for their semen or eggs. Our correspondent spends some time thinking about what makes a good cow or bull. First up, though.

The thing about exchanges such as this is perhaps if you haven't been to them before, you might be surprised to see but the majority of people here don't know about the fate of their sons and husbands and loved ones.

Our Ukraine correspondent, Oliver Carroll was in a secret location this weekend in Chernihiv, a northern Ukrainian province, to witness the largest prisoner swap since the war began.

Just been speaking to Lyudmila, who she knows that she's seen a video where her son was basically being taken prisoner of war back in 2023. She hasn't heard anything else since then. And obviously the hope is that somewhere someone knows something about where he is. And so she says she can't even remember how many times she's been to events like this. This is not her first exchange, but she's still in tears, hoping for some information about the whereabouts of her son.

Prisoner exchange numbers were not the only record broken this week. In a single night, Russia launched 355 drones toward Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. According to local officials, the violence is unrestrained. Donald Trump has gone from parroting Russia's talking points on the war to calling out its leader.

I'm not happy with what Putin's doing. He's killing a lot of people and I don't know what the hell happened to Putin. I've known him a long time.

In response, the Kremlin said those remarks were connected to an emotional overload. That's just noise. More substantially, Germany said Ukraine's allies would lift the limits on the range of weapons they provided, permitting strikes deeper into Russia. The course of the broader war is ever more dispiriting. But for about 1,000 soldiers, the course of their war just changed dramatically.

It had been a day of waiting, hours and hours and seas of families with Ukrainian flags and photos desperately holding their pictures above their head. Their arms are getting tied just in the hope that picture of their loved one would be seen by a photographer. Because if they get the attention of photographers, someone might see the photo and might have some information about the loved one. So it's this real mix of anguish and sorrow in the main.

So there's, there's no information about who's going to be on these buses before they arrive. I mean, where are they going to coming from?

The exchange itself happens across the border just inside Belarus. Now, this was a thousand by thousand exchange, the largest prisoner exchange to date. On Friday, the first day, 390 men were exchanged on either side. On Saturday, another 307 were exchanged. And on Sunday, 303. So we're waiting in this compound in Chernigov region, opposite this crowd of people, the seas of flags and photos. And then at about 6:30pm, the buses turn up. Three blue, one orange. And the cheers went up. And you see inside the buses, the Ukrainian soldiers, their shaven heads resting against the windows, gray faces looking into the mid distance. And then the buses come to a halt, the doors open. The men themselves, they're not ready for what's about to happen to them. Lots of emotion, lots of chaos. The shouts, have you seen my relative? You hear the occasional shriek cutting through two women. They've just spotted Sasha Mohiliuk, a young soldier who was captured at the Ilyich Iron and steelworks. From the 36th Marine Brigade, which is one of the key fighting units in the 2022 defense of Mariupol. I was with him as he got to make a video call with his mother. And what can you say in moments like this? He broke down in tears. Mom, I'm here. And all the time you're hearing desperate relatives shouting out, trying to find information about their loved ones. And you could see that the men, again, you know, they're in a different world and they're really trying to concentrate hard, searching their minds, trying to work out if maybe they had seen whoever it was somewhere in the conveyor belt of Russian prisons.

So it's clear that all of these people, in their way, are desperate for any information they can get their hands on. You mentioned that you had a chance to speak at more length with Lyudmila. What did you hear from her?

Yeah, so Lyudmila was one typical case. She told me she can't remember how many times she's been to exchanges like this one. She was sobbing as she told the story of her 22 year old son who went missing two years ago, 20, 23, when he was fighting in Lugansk Province. Now she knows he was taken prisoner of the war because there's actually a video of his capture by Russian forces. He wasn't on the buses. And I fear it might not be the last time she attends events like this. You know, I asked her what is her message to people outside? And she said she just wanted to scream at the rest of the world to end the war, to hear our poor Ukraine, as she put it.

So what do we know about the people who did manage to get on and then get off those buses?

They were in a terrible state. You know, they looked as if they hadn't seen the light of day for many months. They had really bad teeth, the clothes on their bony shoulders ragged, dirty, and the faces as well as in gray faces. And this is kind of what made the reunion so extraordinary. I mean, I saw one couple come together and again, you know, the cause went out. You know, Lena, Leona, he's here. Where's Leonard? Find Leona. And at this point, Alexander's looking through files of photos of missing soldiers that people are trying to find. And when they come together, it's almost like a sort of death process in reverse. From gray color comes to his face. And they're embracing for five, ten minutes, saying little. And then she asks him, what's that on your hand? Gangrene? He says, my hand's rotting now. We were told it's not as bad as it once was. But we do know the treatments of Ukrainian prisons, of wars inside Russian prisons, is still a huge problem. Prisons like Taganrog in southern Russia, which are essentially synonymous with torture, beatings, electrocution, threats of rape, worse. And it's also clear this is only one step in the process of their return, there'll be an awful lot of healing needed.

And this is a prisoner exchange. What do we know about the Russian prisoners of war going in the other direction?

Right, so we weren't given access to any of the Russian prisoners heading the other way. But judging by the footage that, you know, I was watching on Russian propaganda channels, it's fair to say they were returning in far better shape than the Ukrainians. I mean, it's similar in terms of the lack of information on both sides. On the Russian side, there are different reasons. One person actually who was following the Russian groups to the exchange in Belarus was Irina Krynina, a Russian woman with actually a very interesting story. She's originally from Siberiask, and she found herself in Ukraine after her husband was taken prisoner. And she applied to a program run by Ukraine's military intelligence, and she basically came to Ukraine and is now living in Ukraine. And since she's become a conduit for Russian families, helping them try to locate and communicate with their relatives. And she was in and around the exchange, and we managed to speak to her. She's a regular presence at exchanges like this, so she knows all about the chaos and lack of information. But she did say there's even less information available for Russians, and there's no government body, no enlistment office, which will give families information. In many ways, prisoners of war for Russia are an almost inconvenience, you know, an impossible product of a special military operation that was supposed to last just days, and yet she was on the buses going to the border, and all the time she was busy reaching out to the men's family via social media. Ukrainian families would bike your arm for information like this. Russia won't let monitors like the Red Cross in. It doesn't cooperate with Ukrainian families. And that's why so many relatives come to exchanges like we saw, in the hope of, you know, finding morsels of information. So Rina was saying that for some of the Russian families who are getting their loved ones back, one of the fears is they'll soon be forced to return to the front lines.

And as someone who's seen this in detail, something that the rest of the world doesn't much get to see, does it tell you anything? Is there anything to glean here about where the war is headed that we wouldn't otherwise think?

I mean, a prisoner's swap in itself is not indicative of any positive movement in, for example, ceasefire negotiations. Far from it. In fact, it was a band aid suggested by Turkish mediators to cover up what essentially was a lack of movement in talks in Istanbul. And exchanges like this do take place regularly outside the context of talks, but for the families, it is important. And you'd have to be heartless to be unmoved by the scenes I saw if we're talking about where the war is headed. Well, you know, so far the fundamentals are that Trump has offered little incentive for Putin to stop it. And we're likely at the start of another bloody offensive in the summer, likely to be concentrated on the Donbas and perhaps also in Sumy province in the north. And that means more prisoners of war and more days like this.

Oliver, thanks very much for your time.

Thank you for having me, Jason.

Part of the reason American brands have made it round the world is down to good old free market capitalism and a national knack for marketing. But think of when the Berlin Wall came down and Coca Cola rolled in by the lorry load. In the last days of the Soviet Union. People accustomed to lining up had a new cue to join.

Muscovites queued for hours today to taste the delights of fast food. When McDonald's opened their first restaurant in.

The Soviet Union, buying something American was to buy into the idea of America. It was democratic and free. It was successful. It was cool. That idea of America, though, that's changing.

American firms make more than $8 trillion in foreign sales every year.

Amelia Wood writes about business and finance for the Economist.

But brands that are seen as iconically American, from Jack Daniels to Tesla to Coca Cola, appear to be being hit by a backlash against Donald Trump. His tariffs and especially his expansionist rhetoric have soured consumers perceptions of America globally. And that seems to be affecting sales.

So when you say affecting sales, how much?

Well, the most prominent example is probably Tesla. Elon Musk, carmaker, who, as I'm sure you're well aware, has become very linked to Donald Trump. Over the past few months, new registrations of Tesla vehicles in Europe have fallen by more than 40% year on year in the first quarter of 2025. Another example would also be someone like Coca Cola. So Carlsberg, another drinks firm, bottles Coca parts of Europe, and they've reported that in Denmark, volumes are down in favor of local alternatives.

And you think that Coca Cola example is illustrative of a broader reaction against Mr. Trump? Against America?

Put it this way. Views of America are declining worldwide. A survey of over 100,000 people across 100 countries last month by NARA data found unfavorable views of America now outweigh favorable ones. But what you see in the reaction in sales against Trump is that it's particularly pronounced in countries where he's mooted territorial ambitions. So in Denmark, he's obviously talked about buying Greenland their territory, and he's also talked about Canada becoming an American state. And that's where you've seen the biggest changes in behavior. So for Canadians, travel bookings to America are down, according to travel firms. And 61% of Canadians have reported to pollsters that they're now boycotting American companies. Firms are also now downplaying their Americanness in these countries. Kraft Heinz, another consumer consortium, has sought to remind Canadians in its adverts that its snacks are made in Canada by Canadian ingredients. Obviously, the implication there and other companies like Coca Cola are saying they're going to do similar things is that in order to get around some of this backlash, you should emphasize that you're made locally so that you're less tied to America.

So I guess the question here is whether this is pointedly anti Trump sentiment being borne out in the marketplace, or more broadly, anti American sentiment.

There is certainly evidence that consumer boycotts existed against American goods before Trump entered the White House. So one example would be, across the Middle east, there was some level of backlash against American consumer products, particularly companies like Starbucks, which were thought to be too closely associated with Israel and actions in the Middle East. So I think it's fair to say that it's not solely about Trump, but this latest wave seems particularly about him. And also at the moment, there's a question of extent. So companies like McDonald's are still telling analysts that they don't think their company sales have been impacted by the rise in anti American consumer sentiment, although they say that's something that they're seeing. They just say it hasn't dampened sales yet. And, and given the American ness of a brand like McDonald's, you would expect them to be a canary in the coal mine if the backlash were to get worse.

Well, that's the question then whether you think, given what's driving all this means that firms will see more of it or whether this is just a sort of knee jerk reaction to Trump's return and very busy program of action so far in the world.

Well, I think, like with so many other things in the world. It's somewhat in the hands of Donald Trump himself and no one else. It obviously could get worse. I think if Trump continues to moot territorial ambitions around the world, that's probably not something that foreign consumers will tend to like, particularly not in the countries that he's talking about. Tariffs as well, where other countries retaliate, will ultimately also make American goods more expensive abroad and prompt consumers to turn away. And so the question for American brands is how to take this backlash and the extent to which they think they'll be truly affected if situations worsen. Very iconic American consumer brands. So think of your Starbucks, your McDonald's, your Coca Colas, which consumers know are American, are very easy to target as well, in the sense of there are normally local alternatives that are relatively similar and inexpensive versus the kinds of brands that are also American but are deeply integrated and you could argue, I suppose, far more essential to the global economy. So think of cancer treatments and medicines from American pharmaceutical companies. The prospect that consumers will go without those, to me, feels much more unrealistic. So what American brands have to think about is not just how closely tied are they to characters like Mr. Trump, but also how essential are they to consumers overseas.

Amelia, thanks very much for your time.

Thank you so much for having me.

Earlier this month, I went to a bovine beauty pageant in Minas Gerais, which is a state in southeastern Brazil.

Is our Brazil bureau chief.

I went to a fair called Expo Zebu, where some of the world's most prized zebu cows parade in an arena and ranchers compete at auction for eggs and semen from champion cows and bulls. And the richest ranchers also buy shares in the cows and bulls themselves. Now, these are no ordinary cows. They're a distinctive looking strain from India with a big humped back and saggy dewlaps. They were brought to Brazil in the 19th century, and now they make up around 80% of the cattle in Brazil. And Brazil has more cows than people. Brazil has a herd of around 240 million cattle. At the fair, cows are brought out on the field and they strut their stuff. And a panel of judges decides which are the most beautiful cows. And then the winners announce. And the crowd breaks out in a riotous yeehaw. I wandered around the fair a little bit and I wondered what makes a good cow. So I asked one bidder who had come all the way from Colombia what he looks for in a cow. And he said that he looks for a wide rib cage because it means she can eat more and fatten up quicker. And he looks for a broad rump because it means that she can carry bigger calves. And he said, you want a good quality mammary system with udders that are big but not too big, so they can fit into milking machines. But for bulls, his answer was much simpler. He just looks for well developed testicles. Fairs like Exposable are very big business in Brazil. This year the auctions raised $35 million and the fair as a whole attracted 400,000 visitors, some coming from as far a field as Angola and India.

As.

Well as the beauty pageants. There's live music and the only available food is grilled beef. And the drink of choice is very much cold beer. I'm a vegetarian city girl, so I very much felt out of place. Everybody was wearing cowboy boots and Stetson hats, and there were famous country singers and very powerful politicians. But the main attraction is the cows. So I made my way to the barns where the cows huddled together before they waltzed into the arena. And I met Karina, who's the most expensive cow ever sold at auction. She went for over $4 million in November of last year. The skin on her neck was so abundant that it kind of draped in heavy folds down her back like a shawl. And everybody was taking pictures of her. And this one guy came up to me and he was like, this is the Gisele Bundchen of cows, in reference to that other Brazilian supermodel. Then I left the fair and I went to visit a farm where there's a cow that's so famous that she no longer has to compete with her peers at auctions. She's called Vatina 19, but I'll just call her Vyatina. So Vyatina was the world's most expensive cow before her crown was stolen by Karina. Lorani Martins is a veterinarian whose family co owns Vyatina. She told me that Viatina gets daily baths with clarifying hypoallergenic shampoo to keep her hair gleaming white. She gets pedicures so that her hooves are all nice and clean and her horns are hydrated with sunflower oil. She weighs 2,400 pounds, so 1,100 kilograms, which is more than double the average weight of her. More like basic brethren. And according to Larani, Vyatina is very aware that she's a celebrity. Lorani told me that she carries herself in a different way to the other cows. She only hangs out with other champion cows. She's not interested in the basic ones. And she starts shaking, shaking her head if you bother her. I experienced a little bit of this because when I took out my camera to take a picture of Yatina, she straightened her legs and she lifted up her head and she looked very thoughtfully into the sunset. So to me, she was definitely posing. The reason via Tina is considered such a super cow is that she's ultra fertile. In just three years, she's had 120 calves, not all of them herself, obviously. Her eggs are implanted via IVF into surrogate cows. Brazil has been perfecting zebus through selective breeding for decades, and now it's really big business. But it's also a fundamental part of Brazil's agricultural revolution. Brazil went from being a country in the 1960s that experienced hunger regularly and that had to import a lot of basic foodstuffs and implements like plows to be being the world's most important bread and beef basket. Today, it's the world's largest net food exporter. And that revolution began in the 1970s when scientists at the state owned agricultural research firm called Mbrapa developed crops well adapted to tropical weather. So for example, they brought over a more drought resistant grass from Africa called brachiaria, and then they perfected it. And this opened up Brazil's gigantic interior interior to farming and cattle ranching at the cost of massive deforestation. And today, Brazil accounts for more than a quarter of the world's beef exports. But a few things have been holding Brazil back from being an even bigger beef exporter. And one of those is that Brazil was not yet declared free of foot and mouth disease. And for that reason, some protectionist countries have refused cheap Brazilian beef imports on sanitary grounds. But they may find it harder to do so because the World Organization for Animal Health, which is based in Paris, is soon expected to declare Brazil free of foot and mouth disease. And in addition, Donald Trump's tariffs mean that countries that depend on American beef imports, like Japan, are looking at new markets. And Brazil is trying to milk that opportunity.

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. We'll see you back here tomorrow, Sam.