A corporate finance expert argues that Anthropic's $900 billion valuation ignores traditional DCF analysis and cash-flow forecasting, showing how AI hype has replaced sober spreadsheet discipline in M&A valuations.
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Now with my corporate finance M&A hat on, this defies all logic. You know, when we talk about M&A, we talk about valuation. We're pretty sober, pretty spreadsheet-oriented people that try to understand the fundamentals of the company, try to really get a grip on their cash flow, how this company is going to generate cash flow going forward. We discount that cash flow to give a valuation parameter that looks sensible and looks like something that we could either invest in or take to take to our clients that are looking at buying a company. But when it comes to companies like Anthropic, which in a, whether you call it a bubble or not, but in a roaring bull market for artificial intelligence, this is like the head of the bulls. This is the one stamping over you in the running of the bulls over in Spain, right? It's number one. And therefore all of these good M&A principles go out the window.