Benjamin-Taylor-LGC-piece-on-scenario-planning-speculative-futures-learning-network
Benjamin Taylor’s essay, submitted to the Local Government Chronicle, analyses the profound organisational, psychological and societal upheavals facing local government in the period following a major crisis (implicitly the COVID‑19 pandemic). It argues that the post‑crisis landscape will be characterised by widespread trauma, grief and stress among staff, heightened public scrutiny, legal liabilities and massive service backlogs. Taylor proposes a two‑axis scenario‑modelling framework – community cohesion (unity vs breakdown) crossed with the balance of centralised control versus localist autonomy – yielding four possible futures: ‘Battle of Britain’, ‘Just the Blitz’, ‘Backstop once again’ and the preferred utopian vision ‘Creating New Realities’. The essay details the negative traits of the first three scenarios and then elaborates the positive scenario, outlining four pillars of an enabling, distributed, value‑focused, and constraint‑balanced world. To realise this future, Taylor recommends concrete actions: protecting emergent community networks, providing psychological personal protective equipment, truth‑and‑reconciliation‑style processes, memorialisation, arts‑based healing, T‑group facilitation, whole‑system future‑shaping methods (e.g., FutureSearch), and a shift to place‑based, adult‑to‑adult governance that treats central‑local relationships as enabling constraints rather than top‑down impositions. The piece concludes that immediate investment in learning, coaching and cross‑partner collaboration is essential to safeguard the fragile positive momentum that has emerged during the crisis.
Topics
Post‑crisis emotional landscape in local government workforce
Explores the scale of trauma, grief, guilt and stress among council staff, including varied responses such as burnout, early retirements and career changes.
Governance challenges and the re‑assertion of political decision‑making
Discusses how centralised crisis responses have sidelined councillors and non‑executives, and argues for a renewed, decisive political role in the recovery phase.
Two‑axis scenario modelling framework for community cohesion and centralisation
Introduces a 2×2 matrix that crosses community unity vs breakdown with centralised grip vs localist balance, forming four distinct future scenarios.
Negative scenario ‘Battle of Britain’: unified struggle with brownfield redevelopment
A relatively cohesive population endures hardship, emerging with a stronger identity but facing extensive economic and institutional rebuilding.
Negative scenario ‘Just the Blitz’: breakdown and slow rebuilding
A fragmented, frustrated society faces a parental state, leading to uncertain and sluggish reconstruction.
Negative scenario ‘Backstop once again’: local government as safety net
Local authorities bear the brunt of social fragmentation, learning valuable lessons while struggling to piece together a divided community.
Preferred utopian scenario ‘Creating New Realities’: an enabling, distributed, value‑focused world
Outlines four pillars – an enabling world (trauma‑aware services, climate focus), a distributed world (liveable cities, local supply chains), a value‑oriented world (minimum wage, taxation rethink), and a system of enabling constraints – that together form a hopeful post‑crisis future.
Implementation recommendations: psychological PPE, truth‑and‑reconciliation, memorialisation and arts‑based healing
Specifies concrete actions such as coaching, counselling, psychological personal protective equipment, truth‑and‑reconciliation‑style processes, ceremony, memorialisation, art, T‑groups and FutureSearch to protect and nurture positive momentum.