Asif Osman argues that Palestinian forces breached Israel's defenses and retook settlements on October 8, 2023, an unprecedented military action that prompted Israel's first war declaration since 1973. The attack could disrupt Arab-Israeli normalization efforts with Turkey, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, and may pressure the US to push Israel toward concessions.
I think the reality is that the events that we're seeing unfolding in Palestine are unprecedented. The Palestinian forces took back land that Israel violently and illegally seized around the Gaza Strip. Palestinian forces breached Israel's Iron Dome, broke Israel's defensive line along the Gaza Strip. And unprecedented scenes of Israeli settlers fleeing their illegal settlements went viral. The fighting is ongoing. Rockets are being fired at Tel Aviv while Israeli warplanes are pummeling Gaza. Israel has cut off electricity to Gaza and US President Biden has announced rock solid support for Israel. But the real consequence of this war is already resoundingly clear and it's overwhelmingly in favor of the Palestinians. Firstly, this is the first time Israeli settlements have been retaken by the Palestinians. In 1973, the Egyptians broke the Israeli line in Sinai and the Syrians broke the Israeli line near the Golan Heights. But they did not penetrate what is considered Israel proper. The Palestinians today penetrated what is considered Israel proper in a defiant display of force. And this is why Israel has officially declared a state of war for the first time since 1973. Secondly, the scale of the Palestinian attack is an explosive reminder that the Palestinians are still here and that they still matter and that they have their own independent agency. One of the reasons the Israelis were caught by surprise was not because it was a public holiday in Israel, but because the Israelis believed that Palestinians are at their weakest point because the countries traditionally supposed to back them are instead chasing peace with Netanyahu. And Erdogan has been chasing Netanyahu for closer ties as he tries to pitch the idea of a joint pipeline and economic corridor. UAE has fully embraced and encouraged normalization of ties, despite Netanyahu's push to annex territories in the West Bank. Saudi Arabia's Bin Salman has been pushing for normalization and has indicated that if Biden gives the Crown Prince a NATO style security pact, then Saudi will not insist on a Palestinian state. In other words, Netanyahu was lulled into a false sense of security in in that given the Muslim states have indicated that Palestine is not an issue of particular importance for them anymore, then the Palestinians themselves no longer have any power or agency to advance their cause. So the ability of the Palestinians to independently launch the most consequential attack on Israel in decades at a time in which it appears they are being abandoned is a resounding message that no amount of normalization of ties between Israel and the Arab regimes can erase Palestine or the Palestinian people. The Palestinians have independent agency that is not dependent on whether the Arab regime support them or not. And the impact of this agency has sweeping ramifications. Firstly, it inspires public opinion that the Palestinian cause, with which millions sympathize with around the world, is very much alive. And the impact of this public opinion was made clear in the way Bin Salman, who has been eager for normalization, bin Salman buckled and returned to calling Israel a colonizer and an occupier. And in official Saudi statements demonstrating that public opinion still matters, even to regimes that are built on repressing public opinion. The impact of the explosive display of Palestinian agency will also rattle the Biden administration, which is desperate to encourage normalization of ties between Arab regimes and Israel. As long as there is escalation on this scale, it's almost impossible for any nation to normalize. And it's for this reason that while Israel is threatening sweeping retribution, the Americans may instead intervene as they did in 1973 and pressure the Israelis to make concessions in exchange for an environment conducive to normalization in 1973. It is about getting Egypt to recognize Israel, which president said that subsequently did. This time it will be about getting Bin Salman to normalize. Whether Netanyahu will be receptive is a different matter. He has been humiliated by the Palestinians that he has incarcerated and blockaded in the world's largest open air prison. He has been humiliated by the Palestinians that he turfed in order to build settlements on their land. And he has been humiliated by Palestinians who have their homes regularly demolished and seized by settlers that Netanyahu encourages into Palestinian territories in order to lay the groundwork for annexing more territory. The Palestinian cause was supposed to be dying. Events today show it's very much alive.
If these are God's chosen people then God chose them to test the rest of us.
