Bob Fraser expects the Fed to cut rates three to four times this year, boosting real estate and investment. Oil above $120 a barrel becomes painful for the global economy, while $100 is manageable. Geopolitical tension closing the Strait of Hormuz is the main risk.
I'm hoping I'm right that the Fed lowers rates 3 to 4 notches this year. If they do, we will definitely see the real estate cycle turning. And that's very positive for investment. If we do see GDP growth motoring along, we're going to continue to see demand for these things. You know, we're clearly not seeing a full-on recession yet. No signs of that. And I think we watch all the data, right? Let's see, do things get very painful? I think with oil at $100 a barrel, I think we're seeing people paying more at the pump, but I don't think it's causing lots of global disruption. I think at $120 a barrel, I think it gets a lot a lot more painful. And I think certainly if we were to see prices sustained above $120 a barrel, I do think we're going to see a lot of issues. But we're not there yet. It does look like this conflict is not going to be over quick and we're going to see disruption. But how much longer can they keep the Strait of Hormuz closed? We'll see. If they can reopen the strait, we're going to see all this go away.
