Belinda Román: 2026 Macro Economic Outlook for Investors

a very special guest, someone who has joined us before on this webinar and absolutely a delight, someone we really, we really love speaking with, Belinda Roman. She is the lead economist at Roman Economics and associate professor of economics at St. Mary's University. She was recognized by the Wall Street Journal in 2023 as one of the most accurate economic forecasters. Pretty important to get right, right? Like, a lot of people can just see the most accurate. Yes.

Yeah.

So, you know, uh, but she brings a wealth of global experience from Latin America to Capitol Hill to London and specializes in economic impact and policy research. She's also a fellow of the NSF-funded Diversity Initiative for Tenure in Economics. So please join me in the chat, guys.

Let's get hype!

Let's give her some love here to Belinda Rahman. Let's go give her some love in the chat, everybody.

Say let's go, let's go!

Show her some— show her a warm welcome from the, uh, the iLab announcement community. Hello, Belinda.

Hi. Hello. How are you?

It's so great to have you here with us.

I'm happy to be here. I love that book. I hope I get a signed copy too.

I'm sorry, we have to make sure that happens.

I'll join the school. I'll join school. Okay.

Okay, great. So Belinda is joining school, everybody.

Time to go back to school.

Yes, absolutely.

Well, it actually would be amazing to have you in the school community. And if you, you know, if you're ever— I mean, it's such a great place to interact with individuals who have questions, right? And actually help and impact The Retail Investor. So it would be a privilege to have you inside of our school community. Um, that would be awesome. Uh, why don't you kick us off and give us a layout of what we're going to be discussing today?

Yeah, I mean, so macro is around 3 very big things, right? The growth in the economy, the employment picture, and the inflation picture. And then, and then from there, we kind of start to disaggregate and go into more detail. So Starting at the top, it's always the GDP number that we wait for every quarter or regularly depending on what your source of information is. And more recently, let's say in the, in the past year, that GDP number has shown a remarkable amount of strength given all the other things that are going on in the economy. So the idea to me is to understand where that strength is coming from. Why are we seeing this, you know, third quarter GDP of 4.4% growth? And it's coming from a couple of places that I think are very interesting and notable and perhaps opportunities, but there's also some weakness in there that we should be aware of and think about, especially in the employment sector. The— of course, and that allows us to pivot to employment and ask our questions about employment. We're still at a stubbornly high unemployment rate. Not so high as it was back during COVID and other periods in time, but still enough to cause economists, policymakers to have pause to say, okay, it's not moving, the payrolls aren't growing as fast, what's happening here, and what does this mean, you know, going forward, short and long term, and of course the role of AI in that story. And then the third thing are prices. Again, you know, it's all relative. Where we're standing right now, sometimes it feels like sticker shock in the grocery store, but when we look back at other things that were going on 5, 10 years ago, we can see that there were, you know, prices were a little bit more elevated in some things and in others. But the inflation picture, although we see these statistics and we're trending down towards what the Federal Reserve is hoping is our landing place, people still feel very differently about how it affects them individually. And I think that is a story that needs a little bit more attention because how we feel affects how we then behave. And if it becomes more of a group dynamic, then that kind of creates a steamroller effect. And so now we're thinking, okay, so we thought we were going this way, but now we're going that way. Mostly because of the behavioral aspects. So that big picture is telling us we're stabilizing, we're doing better, but it doesn't feel like it. And there's that disconnect that we're trying to reconcile. And shows like this, I think, help people think about it more clearly and say, look, let's take a step back, take a deep breath, let's think about it, and what are we really seeing rather than what are we feeling? I think that's my big picture story that I've been looking at.

Yeah, let's go dive in, in, in depth into each of those three, you know. So I'm taking notes here.

So yeah, I think I'll be most helpful, Belinda, if we could kind of take each one of those and break those down a little bit of— and really, and really, you know, as you imagine who this audience is today, this is the retail, this is individuals, right? These are not institutions. These are folks asking how to make sense of all of this, right? I mean, we even look at what's happened over the last 2 days in the market and the price of gold and the price of silver, and it's going up and it's going down, and I thought that was a secure asset, right? And so helping us kind of become informed about this in such a way that it helps us make decisions, I think, is really what people are asking, uh, today.

Sure. Okay, so let's— we'll start with the GDP part of it. So the GDP is, is comprised of how consumers spend, how in— how investment goes. So, but that's investment not necessarily in financial capital, but in warehousing and structural improvements in the economy. And then how government spends its money and then our international trade. And so what we've seen is we've seen this really big shift in the way government is participating in the economy, right, cutting lots of jobs, cutting down the government payrolls at the federal level, at the state level. Even at the state levels, and then the city's trying to adjust. Consumers continue to spend. You know, American consumers are great. We spend, you know, if we're happy, we spend. If we're sad, we spend. And so that spending dynamic continues. And so that's helping push the GDP higher. The question is, what are we spending our money on? And I'm certain that your real estate guests will talk a little bit more about you know, commercial as well as residential, and are people buying homes and that sort of story. So the question is, where are consumers spending their money on, you know, going to Best Buy, going to Target, going to Costco, and what that trajectory is. Where are they cutting back, but where are they spending? Is it on energy? Is it on better, you know, streaming? It's— that's where the detail is. That's that's helpful, I think, for your clients to understand and take a look and stop and say, okay, where are the consumer patterns going that are driving this? In terms of investment, the changes in policy at the federal level have encouraged foreign domestic— foreign investment in the United States. So we're seeing some big investment projects in different parts of the country in semiconductors, In even transportation logistics. I've been doing a lot of work down on the US-Mexico border, and despite all that news on tariffs, there is a dynamism down there because companies are gearing up for more growth, for nearshoring. They've got to cross the border, and they've got to keep going from here. And this includes medical devices and all the other logistic technology, liquid natural gas, the building out of ports. Ports down there for the petrochemicals. So these are industries that are starting to look and say, we're building out and we need the structural components so that we can then start to produce and send that flow into the US or back out into the international markets. So we're looking at where those investments are coming and, you know, what the— basically what the play is there in terms of where can I slot in, which are the companies, how's Boeing doing, how's Toyota going to do in the US, what are the pieces that are moving around, and what does that supply chain, that shortened supply chain look like, and who are the pieces in that, that particular chain, and you know, who's trading. And from there falls the employment. Who are they hiring? Where are the shortages? What do the shortages mean? They mean higher wages to the people that are working in these areas. So construction is struggling in parts of the country because there's not enough labor. So that means those prices are going to go up. So how does that then affect the ability of some of these large construction firms to actually build and then maintain? So when I start looking at this and I start taking a deeper dive, what I'm looking at is asking these questions going, okay, what is this really telling me? The final element of gross domestic product is our international trade. And as a result of the way the present administration has changed that dynamic, our export numbers are improving relative to what we're bringing into the US because of those tariffs. So that's the good news. The good news is domestic suppliers are sending probably higher value exports to the rest of the world. And we're not paying as much for what's coming in. So that offers two things. That offers a dynamic for export growth. So companies that are looking outward and that offers an opportunity for countries that are domestic, I mean companies that are domestic that are thinking, what can I produce in this supply chain that will put me in place so I can supply the domestic as well as the foreign market? And I think you can see that in some of the electronics, some of the AI, some of the other things that are going on. That is kind of like a breakdown of what these big picture numbers tell us. And of course, in real estate, you'll start— you'll focus on real estate. If you're going to focus on commercial or residential or construction materials. I've been looking at recycled metals a little bit because they don't get hit as much with the import taxes as new things. So those are all very interesting markets that are never really on our our radars, but they're indicative of something else that's going on in the economy.

So you mentioned big 4 components of GDP. First is consumer spending, which is something like 68%, 70%. And Americans are definitely loving to spend. We are unique people in the world, and it's really good for the economy. When we're happy, we spend. When we're sad, we spend. When we're upside down, we spend. When we're right side up, we spend. It just doesn't matter.

Super Bowl is coming, Super Bowl is coming, let's spend. Right?

Yeah. And that's the biggest component. You're also calling out investment and really the reshoring trend and the supply chain kind of reshoring, nearshoring, where companies are spending to move their supply chains closer to the United States. And we know that's a big trend that we've been calling out for several years now. Um, but I've seen numbers as high as a trillion dollars a year being spent. Well, that boosts the economy when people are spending that kind of money, right? And I don't know what numbers you've seen, and I don't necessarily have updated numbers there, but clearly it's a very, very big number. And that means, you know, people are, are, uh, are investing and buying, you know, building warehouses, building infrastructure, buying equipment, et cetera, logistics for all this. This reshoring, and it's really, it's really, it's not going to stop as, as the, the supply chain risks are being repriced right now. And, you know, people are wanting— we realize our supply chains are just too overextended. And so that's all, that's all changing and bringing it back. So there's, there's a, it's a very big trend and a very, a lot of money is being spent. And when money is being spent, that means, you know, people are, things are being purchased, and that means that the economy is being boosted. So you're calling out investment spending as big. You mentioned government spending, which is obviously falling. Well, in my book, that's a good thing, right? I think some people obviously may disagree, but I think governments don't add to GDP. I mean, they don't produce anything, I guess, right? And so they can be a hindrance. But that one's going down. And then the fourth one you mentioned is trade and exports are improving because of basically policies and domestic suppliers are doing super well. So it sounds like a pretty bullish GDP forecast overall. And in fact, the economy, as you point out, has been growing faster than a lot of people have predicted. I mean, there's, you know, was it earlier in the year, everybody's saying tariffs are going to destroy the economy and cause massive inflation. Inflation and shut everything down. And of course, it didn't happen. And in fact, we've got a very strong economy pacing at 4.4%. I mean, that's pretty extraordinary growth for the United States. And will that likely continue? So you are the Wall Street Journal's topmost accurate forecaster. So what is it going to be for 2026, Belinda?

Well, I mean, I think we continue to grow because, you know, it's also about the numbers, the relationship between the numbers. Since imports— it's in the trade balance— is a net number. It's the difference between what we're exporting and what we're importing. So, you know, that's how they change relative. It's also going to push GDP up. So I think if we continue down this trajectory, then our GDP numbers are going to be good. But underneath those GDP numbers are the volatility and the policy. We never know where we're going policy-wise quite yet. I think, I think it's starting to settle because the tariffs are settling around 15 to 18%. And that's where I was kind of looking at about 15% when I did this last year, like they're going to settle somewhere, you know, where We're in the heat of the negotiation, but it looks like they're settling there except for these outliers. So if we can think in terms of that, then we know that there isn't going to be as hard a hit on consumers and industries. Just we got to adjust to, A, the shock of the conversation, and then sit down and think, well, businesses have been planning this way anyway because they think in terms of future growth and future planning. So they must have had scenarios where what happens if this goes wrong or that goes wrong. So, it's maybe not as much of a shift. Where I'm a little bit more apprehensive is in the employment picture because construction— our construction workers aren't going to be replaced by AI.

Let's stick on GDP for a minute. Let's not jump to employment. So, GDP, I mean, you're painting a pretty bullish picture. What's your number for 2026?

I think my number— I didn't come up at 4.4. I had us actually at about 3.9.

That's very high.

Wow.

You're probably out of consensus on that high. Well, good for you. And you've been right a lot before. And actually, my numbers are high too. So, I tend to agree. And I think this economy is going to surprise to the upside. And so, yeah, that would be really good for investors, right?

Of course, yes. In some industries more than others. Again, you know, it's the volatility of the political scene that's, I think, shocking. And sometimes we, we have a hard time detaching ourselves from that, that story and thinking clearly about what's happening.

Yeah, that's, that's, that's so, so true. And I find so many people tend to focus on, on politics and the disagreement and the, you know, the left versus right battles and all the news cycles and all that. But, but But actually, after having done this for 30 years and watched these things, those things are really less impactful than people believe. I mean, the truth is the GDP is the economy of millions and millions of Americans who are adapting. They're innovating. They're changing things. They're improving their lives. They're producing more. And you can't really stop that easily. I mean, it can't be stopped. Regardless of what's going on in Washington, Washington, D.C., or state capitals. Humans are going to innovate, adapt, solve problems, grow, advance. That's the way we're wired. And so, so I think people overestimate the impact of politics. Now certainly, there's policies that are very damaging and policies that are very expansive. And, you know, so the government, we do need to pay attention, but it's really overstated, in my mind, having watched these things. And, you know, the emotions just, you know, just don't affect economics that, that much. Um, you know, and even, even, you know, right now you see consumers are super grumpy and just very negative and very down, and yet they're continuing to spend. And so we're seeing a huge disconnect, right, between a consumer confidence, which used to be the big leading indicator, and now it's kind of an— it's a nothing burger. Consumer confidence is kind of a worthless number anymore because people are grumpy and they're still—

and for clarity, I mean, for the listener and Belinda and Bob, I mean, you made this point, I want to clarify for folks. You said, you've always said this, Bob, if we continue to spend, it's hard to go into a recession if we, if, if we're continuing to spend. Belinda, do you, I mean, would you agree with that sentiment that if consumer spending continues to go up and to the right, I mean, that's a really good indicator of kind of where the economy and investments may be heading? You said that for, for, for many of years.

Absolutely. I think, yes, the consumer— once we see the consumer start to change and slow down, then we start to worry because that means there's—

exactly. I mean, it's really— it's, it's, it's poor man's, uh, eye on the economy is watching GDP spend. I mean, sorry, consumer spending. I mean, that's— you, you, you get the biggest picture, the biggest impact right there. That's the 800-pound gorilla of our economy is consumer spending. And I've been watching it for years and you've been watching it with me for years. And the consumer has not wavered.

And it's like every talk I watch you give, I'm like, how much do we spend this year? When is that going to turn down? I'm like, okay, we're safe.

And it was what, a year ago, 2 years ago, everybody was talking about the big recession, the recession coming and the yield curve had inverted. And I was super clear. I said, yield curve is lying. We are not going to have a recession. And when the consumer is shelling out at the incredible pace they are, that is producing demand, and that means GDP is growing. And it's just, you can't stop it. I said, we're not going to have a recession, and I turned out to be right. Everybody was calling that, and it just really is difficult. And as you point out, the 4 biggies, we've got 3 positives and kind of 1 negative with a lot of question marks. You know, but, uh, we're always— there's always going to be question marks, you know. So, yeah, so, so this is fantastic. And, uh, Belinda, let's shift to your number 3, or your number 2, on unemployment. So that is a very messy picture.

Um, do we even have data? I mean, do we have accurate data at this point on that?

Well, the— something came out earlier in the week, uh, it was the ADP number, right? Came out because we haven't gotten the government numbers And that's actually very interesting because the ADP is always— I looked at it.

ADP is a payroll company.

Payroll company.

So, so this is actual private data that turns out to be, you know, probably more accurate. Well, and it's based on bottom-up statistics. This is what actually is being paid. It's not based on models, right? Economic models built by the government. So, so it's two different ways of approaching the problem, right? The government looks at you know, they, they build models, and then they kind of put inputs on the model and see what it spits out. ADP is looking at, okay, how much payroll did we process?

Exactly.

So it's completely different. You hope they sink, but they're not sinking right now.

No, and they haven't for a while. When I was doing the Wall Street Journal, started doing it, I was looking at ADP, and they were never anywhere near government numbers. And I was like, this is really strange, because it, you know, we're looking at government numbers, we're looking at one one of the biggest payroll processing, right, ADP company. And, and they just don't, they don't sync. And so that doesn't make sense to me.

Um, yeah, Jerome Powell called it out. He, he said he thinks that the, the, the government numbers are overstating employment and that the numbers are actually quite a bit softer. And he, he called it out and said, I think, I think our models are wrong. And, and in fact, models, right, they always need to be adjusted. You're an economist, right? And your models are always have to be adjusted because things really change and they really do change. And so any static models are going to drift. But just, just as we diving into this unemployment picture, explain how unemployment impacts, you know, the economy. Just what are the big levers that it's doing?

Yes. So unemployment is, you know, it's directly tied to consumer spending, isn't it? Because you can't, you can't spend if you don't have an income to spend.

Well, you, you can.

Yeah, well, what, credit? Yeah, but that's, that's different.

The credit is proven that in years past.

Yeah, but no, I guess you know what I'm saying is it's that, that's the ghost in the machine, actually, uh, if we get that far in our conversation. So we're looking at a declining number of people employed, right? Those numbers, the— although we have a regular, pretty flat sort of people claiming unemployment, we're not generating big numbers of jobs.

Right?

Right. Okay. So, but those people that are working are much more productive. So, they're generating more output. Output, and as a consequence of that, they're also getting paid more. So while we have a— this shrinking number of people working, those people that are working are more productive, probably thanks to technology and some of the activities that they're working in, and that's allowing growth in income, and that allows additional spending. So it's that right there, because, you know, AI is not going to make a new warehouse for us. And it's not going to make residential. And there's some significant shortages.

It's not going to groom your dog. It's not going to, not going to serve you a drink at the bar.

No, not yet.

At least not yet.

I can barely get real people to serve me a drink at the bar. I don't know. Maybe we need that.

So there's that disconnect because we do need the house. We need the construction, you know, the baseline meat and potatoes of the economy. We need people in the agricultural sector to go out into the to farms and bring all our food in and construct and do as you're saying, food service, childcare, some of the healthcare needs people and those gaps are concerning. And as much as we like the idea of AI, it's not there yet in terms of being able to interact with people in the same way that people interact with each other. So that's only going to take us so far. So to me, there's a little— there's concern there if we are too bullish on AI without considering some of these other aspects that we know have to happen.

And we also are seeing kind of an oversupply of white-collar workers and an undersupply of blue-collar workers, right? And it's not being helped by the immigration crackdown, in my opinion. So what do you see? I mean, it seems like we're going to have to see blue-collar jobs continuing to rise in wages. I mean, Ford, the CEO of Ford has been famous, said, we have 10,000 open jobs for mechanics at $120,000 a year, and America has a 1 million shortage of mechanics. These are just auto mechanics. I mean, holy cow, you're making more more than a college graduate. And, um, um, so we're gonna probably continue to see the pricing change and, you know, for wages, uh, on both ends where the, the white collar is softening, which we are seeing in the data, right? And, and the blue collar's going up, which we're also seeing in the data. And, and we're gonna probably continue to see that until people start going after these blue collar jobs. Are you seeing kind of this K curve continuing in the, in the employment picture as similar to what I'm describing? Or tell tell us what you are seeing.

Well, no, yes, I see that as well. I see it in all elements of construction, whether it's residential, energy. They just don't have the individuals to go out and be— to do any kind of construction work at the level that they need to scale. But it's a hard sell to the coming generations that want to work. But that kind of work is not what you want. You want to be indoors, uh, like we are talking on, on the internet, right?

And it's right, somebody still has to produce, someone still has to pick up a hammer. Yeah. And it's not going to be you, it's not going to be me. So who's it going to be?

And drive a truck, you know.

Exactly, drive a truck.

Yeah. Yeah.

So the issues, I mean, wages are right, pricing solves all, all shortages and surpluses, right? And so We'll, we'll see that. But it is a, it is a long adjustment period, right? Where those prices have to change significantly and then people have to change their behavior and expectations and, you know, those kind of things. But I, I see it being a limiter on growth over time because these wages are going to continue to have to climb and we just don't have the workers. I mean, even for a manufacturing revolution, which Trump wants to happen and A lot of people— I think it's healthy for America to see a manufacturing revolution. We just don't have the workers, and the pay is too high. Good for us. But it's very difficult for us to become a manufacturing power again.

Right. Can I interrupt that just for a minute? I want to always act like the stupid person in the room because maybe I am at this table. But I think more importantly, I want to help bring up questions people are asking. What I'm hearing you say is The reason this is a major factor to continue to watch from a macro standpoint is if we don't have the labor supply, we really can't continue to support GDP growth, which is the engine of the economy. Is that really what we're saying here?

Yeah, that's true, especially when we're trying to deglobalize. So we're using the cheap labor overseas, you know, Mexican labor, Chinese labor, Vietnamese labor, etc., you know. As a replacement. And so America, over the last, you know, 4 decades or 5 decades, I mean, really, you know, we've seen manufacturing employment plateau. And I don't know when that started. I remember seeing the chart, but it's been a long, long time. So we've trained our workforce and our kids, right, that, you know, you don't want to go into, you know, those jobs, construction jobs or manufacturing jobs or anything like that. And we're exporting those jobs. And now we're saying, no, we want to bring those back. But it's going to be a challenge. I mean, which is why I do think the GDP growth is going to be, you know, come— or certainly our imports are going to come more towards Mexico, you know, which does have still really cheaper labor than China at this point. So the unemployment picture is murky. And We're seeing a lot of job disintermediation from AI and just, but to me it's very similar to what we saw in the dot-com days, right? When the internet came out. I mean, I don't know, I don't know if you guys remember back, you know, um, you know, in 2000, remember the Yellow Pages? You know, do you know what the Yellow Pages are?

Yes, I do.

Yes, I do actually.

And, and do you remember, you know, when you wanted to place a stock trade, You made a phone call, you know, and someone picked up that phone. Someone answered the phone and entered something in a computer. So think about how far we've come, how many jobs were lost in customer service in these kind of, these kind of roles. And, and, you know, and that's what's happening, is happening again in AI. So I, I don't think it's going to change. And I don't think we, I don't think we're We want it to, but it is going to be, you know, you know, change the job market significantly. It's going to be more difficult for young people to get jobs, especially with the minimum wage laws. You know, I mean, what, what 18-year-old would you pay $25 an hour to do?

You know, Linda, we have about 5 minutes here with you. I want to get to just a couple, or if there's any kind of larger, you know, things that you're forecasting or things that you think, or especially, I know there's a couple more points here, but with our time, again, knowing our audience and knowing we're really using this webinar and this data to really make informed investment decisions throughout this year. What, what else is important for us as investors to really be aware of that you're tracking, uh, throughout 2026 or any, any predictions that you're, you're, you know, you want to go on record to say before we let you go today?

Well, I, I mean, The big question is still going to be the employment picture that we discussed. But none of this is going to happen like in the next 3 months. This is something that is— it's short-term, yes, but it's a year, 2, 3 years. It's evolving, and we're watching it evolve. So although we're bullish on GDP, it's not to say that it's not going to change over the 3 or 5-year horizon. But short term, we're still very robust. And so that's the good news. But I suppose for your retail investors or anyone who's thinking about these, these issues, we want to think about how to separate out some of that noise, that volatility that scares us so much, and think, okay, what is the logical path that's going on here? So we know, we know those supply chains are coming back into Mexico. They're going to take a couple of years. And that's going to grow. So now might be a ground-level entry point to pick and look at some of these industries and say what's going to benefit from these changes. That's one of the things I'm thinking about as I'm looking especially at the southern border. The northern border is a little bit different, but still we're all one big supply chain. So what happens south is going to end up impacting north. So if you want to look north, that's also a place to think about how these connections work. I hope in the employment picture that we take a different view and we say, let's, you know, we need construction workers, so let's give them construction visas like we do in the agricultural sector. You know, we have a very robust agricultural guest worker program to help address some of the shortages throughout the country. It's a rotation through the country and then they go back to their home. Why couldn't we think that way for construction and other things to help?

That would make too much sense.

Oh, yes. Okay.

Okay. You know, let's, let's hit inflation because that is, that is the other biggie, which, which primarily drives interest rates, which says so. So what's your inflation picture?

I think inflation. Yeah, very quickly. I think it stays slightly elevated. We're not going to hit that 2-year, that 2% that, that the Fed is looking at. In the next year or so. I think we're still going to stay elevated because of these other issues we're talking about. If wages are still elevated, if we're having these sorts of shortages, and the dynamics of certain industries like data centers that demand a lot of energy and water, that necessarily means that there's a competition for those services between residential and commercial uses. So You know, any way you think about it, there's still going to be pricing pressures. So that inflation number is not going to come down as quickly as we wanted it to, which has implications for interest rates and where the Fed goes with it. But I think reading the Fed notes, their long-term notes are the ones that I look at, what they see coming down the pipeline. And they're still looking at that 2% number, but it's not going to happen for a couple more years.

So are you gonna— are you calling, uh, low 2s, like 2.2, 2.3, 2.4 kind of percent?

I think so, yes. I think in my, uh, first projection, the Wall Street Journal, I was up around there. I was up around between 2.5 and 3.

Oh, so you're, you're definitely high. So I think, yeah, 2.5 and 3, you're definitely out of consensus on that too.

Yeah, it seemed to be always, but I just you know, since I'm not— you know, San Antonio isn't the center of the economy. It's, to me, it's kind of like you were saying, it's, you know, the working person's area. So it kind of gives me a different view of what's going on in the economy. And since Austin's just up the road from us, I have a good contrast in terms of how things are playing out. So that helps me.

So, so with you looking at 2.5 to 3% inflation, you're probably in consensus on interest rates, where, where you're, you're, you know, right now they're saying by the end of the year, 1 to 2 more cuts. So you're probably right in there with that.

Exactly. And if you, if you go back and if you read the notes from the district presidents, the bank presidents after this last meeting, though, they're explaining why they voted the way they did and what they think the Fed will do for the rest of the year. And they're right in there, 2 to 3 over the coming year. So they're all thinking around that area as well. So they're obviously seeing something where maybe we're all seeing the same thing, or they get better data than I do because they have all the internal stuff. But they're also in that area. So I'm thinking, okay, 4 is going to be unrealistic. So let's not even— and it's not going to be 1%, you know, 100 basis points. So let's not be unrealistic.

Of course, you're not a Washington insider, but it does seem like Trump is trying to stack the governor's board there to, you know, more dovish kind of folks. I mean, are you— do you think he's gonna be successful in doing that? Well, and changing policy? I mean, enough to affect policy?

Not enough, but it's gonna be a fight, right? It's gonna be a lot of back and forth and conversation. But, you know, everybody— there's a lot more people than just the governor on that board, right? The chair of the board. So, and Powell still stays in play. And when you read what the, the other presidents have said, you, you get a sense of what their thinking is about these movements. So it's not going to be just a wham bam and it's done and we're going to get these 1% interest rates anymore.

Yeah, that's good stuff. Good stuff.

Uh, Lynn, I know we're kind of coming to time. I want to check the chat here. There may be a few questions for you here as we're kind of waiting on, uh, our next speaker to join. You have a few extra minutes to, to stay with us?

Yeah.

And we can just kind of go directly in the chat. Would love to hear directly from our audience and, um, in anything here. There, there was a question about, uh, large layoffs announced in 2026. I know we talked about the concern there, but is that the— is he referring to Is there a concern about the large layoffs announced on 2026 GDP?

The tech layoffs? I'm not sure.

The tech layoffs. Yeah. Again, these are adjustments that firms are making, and so you're losing workers there. So the question is, can they pivot into another industry? And when these tech firms make these changes, are they consolidating and getting more productivity out of the workers that remain? And if that's the case, then they offset each other. If that's not the case, then that's where we're going to have an issue. Right? So keep the workforce that's the most productive, you pay them more. And so it offsets that loss. And so that, that's the balancing act that we're watching. Now where they go after that is, you know, let's give them incentives to fill some of these other gaps, because they'll probably end up making as much as they were making in the tech sector. I know my plumber's expensive. Probably if you call somebody out to your house for plumbing, it's very expensive. So, you know, it's, it's, it's a, it pays, it's a good paying job. Yeah.

Yeah, great question here from Randy, uh, what do you, uh, the relationship between the Fed rates and the 10-year. So obviously 10-year drives, drives much investment, and, uh, and we are, so then the 10-year, of course, so the Fed rates are setting the Fed, Fed rates, uh, But the tenure is set by the market. And as I've pointed out, we've seen really an oversupply in the debt markets as part of the great financial crisis. There are 6 times more Treasuries now in existence. Right. And so what are you seeing with long rates? Do you look at those? And what do you see in the capital markets?

Well, yeah, I see that. I mean, those— while the Fed sets those interest rates because they're thinking this is what we— what the rate should be, and the government is issuing debt because they need to pay for a big debt we didn't— which we didn't speak about, right? But there's a big debt there. And then externally, the volatility is coming from individuals not wanting to invest in that way, right? So those interest rates are sensitive to the expectations of the investors in them is, is what that is. So how do we feel about buying U.S. debt at this point in time? And maybe domestic investors feel a little bit better than international investors do. I think when the Fed sets those rates, they're not setting them necessarily to target the ranges of these bonds. They're thinking more in terms of what is the appropriate number for us to be able to to recoup our debt and pay it off on time. So I was looking at those numbers. I looked at the 2-year, 5, 10, and 30, and they're all circling around some of these 4-point-something numbers, right? So I wonder if there's a convergence there as in— as bond investors are thinking, you know, hedging one way, making sure they're in the right place in another, because those interest rates are actually a very interesting indicative. I use the 10 for the short-term ideas and the 30-year for the longer term because they're more commensurate with mortgages.

So do you generally see long rates trending with the, with the changes in the Fed rates and tracking that, or you see it compressing, or so it's pretty much tracking?

Yeah, pretty much tracking. And they tend to because, you know, the Fed rate, then add a couple of percentage, a couple of points there, and you get the prime rate, and then you start getting all these other rates. So they all kind of hinge on each other. Within a band of a certain number of basis points. So as the Fed goes this way, they should, they should come down. And if they don't come down, there's something else blocking that process.

Belinda, we got a question here. We're about to wrap up here with you, but folks want to know where they follow you. Can they get access to your reports or continue to just hear from you?

Let folks know, maybe hear you play your piano back there.

Yeah.

Would you like to do a live performance? On cue.

I will, you know, I'm not very diligent on social media, but I'll answer questions if you, if you write to me because, you know, I still gotta take care of my students. And so that's, that's my, my social media I work on. I work as intensively with my students as I can so that they can participate as you're discussing, you know, they like to think about all these other things and I want to invest and I like cryptocurrencies. And I like this, I like that, you know, well, you got to talk about it first and learn it so that you understand it at this degree.

So do you have social media handles or not?

Well, I'm marginally— I am on LinkedIn, but I don't post a lot there because, you know, I just don't— I'll be honest with you, I don't make the time for it because I'm always going off in 10 million directions.

Right. So but let's get you part of our school platform. And maybe this is a great way we can continue to engage with you, or investors can engage with you. I think that would be tremendous. Guys, if you haven't joined school, we'll drop the link again for you to join. It's just school.com/ilab. Uh, it would be amazing to have someone of your caliber to be in there interacting directly. That's what you do, right, with your students and whatnot too?

Get your students on there and get them to answer the questions, and then you can discuss it.

I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm going to get my internet international students because we're talking exactly about this, the investment strategies and things.

So yes, yes, Linda, thank you so much for joining us today. It was such an honor and privilege. Everybody please give Linda, uh, some love in the chat again and, uh, be sure to join the community to, to continue to interact with her. Thank you so much.

Thank you. You all have a good day.

Thank you.

All right, thanks, Belinda.