Ben, Bob Fraser, and a third speaker discuss reshoring to Mexico, labor shortages in construction and agriculture, and AI automation's impact on jobs. Ben proposes sector-specific visa programs to fill gaps. The panel expects higher GDP growth than consensus forecasts, driven by reshoring capital and constrained labor markets.
The big question is still going to be the employment picture that we discussed, but none of this is going to happen like in the next 3 months. This is something that is— it's short term, yes, but it's a year, 2, 3 years. It's evolving. Although we're bullish on GDP, it's not— not to say that it's not going to change over the 3 or 5-year horizon, but short term, we're still very robust. And so that's the good news. But I suppose for your retail investors or anyone who's thinking about these, these issues, we want to think, separate out some of that noise, that volatility that scares us so much, and think, okay, what is the logical path that's going on here? We know those supply chains are coming back into Mexico. They're going to take a couple of years. Now might be a ground level to pick and look at some of these industries and say, what's going to benefit from these changes? I hope in the employment picture that we take a different view and we say, let's, you know, we need construction workers, so let's give them construction visas like we do in the agricultural sector to help address some of the shortages throughout the country. It's a rotation through the country and then they go back to their home. Why couldn't we think that way for construction and other things to help?
So she's pointing out this reshoring, nearshoring trend that we've been calling out for years and have been putting capital to work in this, in this trend, saying it's a very, very big thing. And, and yes, predicting higher GDP GDP growth because of that.
Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, this is a short-term outlook of employment, but it's also a bigger picture challenge that I think our economy will struggle with as we have, you know, new technologies like AI start to displace a lot of, a lot of jobs. And it's going to be a very bifurcated economy on the types of jobs that will be replaced. And I think part of the reason she is a believer there's going to be higher inflation is because of those labor constraints, especially in the shortages we're seeing in agriculture and healthcare and construction, etc. And also leads her to believe in the higher GDP growth, which is out of consensus, but it's hard to argue with her points.
Yeah, we're seeing a weakening demand for white-collar jobs and a growing demand for blue-collar jobs. And I echo her call for very smart immigration policy. We need foreign workers. To supplement our workforce. And, um, so hopefully every politician is going to hear this podcast and, uh, and, and put together a smart immigration policy.
