Bob FraserCFO & Macro Strategist | Data-Driven Investing Expert | Speaker & Author

Everyone wants to go green but it's not ready yet. | Bob Fraser of Aspen Funds #shorts

Name: Everyone wants to go green but it's not ready yet. | Bob Fraser of Aspen Funds #shorts
Uploaded: 2022-08-21T08:30:58+00:00
Duration: 1 min 56 s
Channel: Bob Fraser
Description: In this short commentary, engineer Bob Fraser critiques the overly optimistic narrative surrounding the green energy transition. He highlights three main…

21 Aug 2022 · 2 min

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1:56

In this short commentary, engineer Bob Fraser critiques the overly optimistic narrative surrounding the green energy transition. He highlights three main practical constraints: (1) solar power’s higher cost, large land footprint, and geographic limitations, exemplified by attempts to deploy it in low‑sun regions like northern Germany; (2) the disparity between electric‑vehicle (EV) adoption and lithium demand, noting that only 4.4% of new U.S. vehicle sales were EVs last year yet EVs consumed 65% of global lithium production, and citing Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that lithium and copper will need to grow 40‑fold and 20‑fold respectively—both metals tied to energy‑intensive, oil‑dependent mining processes; (3) the permitting bottleneck for lithium mines in the United States, where environmental opposition blocks projects that are essential for EV production, creating a paradox. Fraser concludes that while everyone wants to be green, the current infrastructure, resource constraints, and regulatory environment mean the transition is not yet ready, urging a pragmatic, engineering‑focused approach over idealistic hype.

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And solar's coming along, but it's still more expensive and takes a lot of real estate. And there's only certain geographies that are suitable, right? People forget this. They're trying to put solar in northern Germany. Good luck. I mean, that's like the North Pole practically. There's not a lot of sun up there. And so people are— there's kind of wishful thinking more than there is mathematics sometimes in, in, in the, the green crowd. And I mean, here's a stat that I ran across. So last year, 4.4% of new vehicle sales in America were EVs, 4.4, but used 65% of global lithium production, which was a record. So, okay, and, and it was, I think, is the EIA that was saying we need a 40 times growth in lithium and something like 20x in copper. Um, and which is all— are all very dirty industries, by the way, and require oil. Very energy-intensive industries. Yes. And, and so, you know, so we're seeing again there's this, this reality that you can't get a lithium mine permitted right now. There's 2 lithium mines in America that can't get permitted because of environmentalists opposing it. And, but these are the same environmentalists that are, that are telling us we're going to be all in EVs that you can't create without lithium. So, so there's just really some nonsensical thinking that's happening. And I'm an engineer by background, so I just think practical. I mean, idealism takes you so far. Idealism gets you excited, but it has to be workable, right, at the end of the day. Yeah. Um, and so, so So we're kind of missing the mark in, you know, I mean, everyone wants to be green. Who doesn't want to be green? I want to be green, but it's not ready yet.