Bob Fraser expects inflation to moderate but stay stubbornly high through 2022-23, doesn't see an imminent recession despite the chatter, and warns that multifamily real-estate cap rates have fallen below borrowing costs, making deals financially impossible.
Those of you who know, know we're passionate about economics. You know, I personally spend many, many hours a day, every day reading and studying economics and to really understand what's going on on the planet and what it means for us. So, so some of the, some of the, some of the highlights here that I'm paying attention to, of course, inflation is the big, the big thing. Here's my summaries. I believe we will see inflation moderating. But it's also going to persist stubbornly throughout this year, next year. There's a lot of people calling for recession. I'm not seeing it yet. You know, could happen. Not yet. Well, I'll go into why we're seeing commercial real estate cap rates rising right now on— because of basically debt rates are increasing. And so we're seeing a lot of, particularly in multifamily, the cap rates actually below the debt to buy that, to buy the property, which is, which is nuts.
