Dr. Chris Kuehl says central banks are backing off aggressive rate hikes because they risk causing recession. The Bank of Japan is appointing a new governor who favors keeping monetary policy loose. Economists' forecasts are warnings, not predictions.
I don't see them driving it particularly hard because one of the things that people learned about economists is that we are constantly forecasting, even though we know we can't. And often that forecast is more of a warning than anything else. It's basically saying, if you don't do this, or if you keep doing that, you're going to reach an unpleasant conclusion. And what you're searing almost overwhelmingly is directed at the central banks saying, if you keep pushing as hard as you have been on the issue of inflation, you are going to send things into recession. And the various central banks are reacting by saying, maybe we aren't going to push that hard. We don't spend a lot of time focusing on other banks, but for example, the Bank of Japan is getting a new central bank head. He's an academic and he has been extremely forceful about wanting to keep the loose monetary policy that the Bank of Japan has.
