Ep 765 | When to Trust Your Gut vs. When to Trust the Data

Thank you for joining me today. It's Brian Gubernick, and welcome to the No Days Off podcast, where we believe that every single day brings a new opportunity to get better. So I was in a conversation recently with a, a pretty experienced person, a smart person, someone that I have a good deal of respect for. And we were going back and forth on a decision that he's facing in his business. And every time I asked a probing question, I would get a response like, "Well, my gut says..." And then I'd try to dig a little deeper and he'd say, "My gut says..." And I'd push a little further and he'd say, "I just feel like..." And I'm sitting there and I'm listening and I'm nodding, but inside I was actually screaming. And I wanted to scream, "Hey, enough about your gut. What does the data say?" Now, I didn't say that out loud. I probably should have, but I didn't say that out loud. I wanted to, but here's the thing and here's why I'm talking around this. I have a lot of respect for intuition. I have a lot of respect for experience-based judgment, but what I've noticed in business and leadership and the people I get to work with every day is that most people have this— frankly, I think have it completely backwards. In other words, they lead with their gut when they should be looking at data, and then on the flip side, they hide behind data when they should be trusting their gut. And I think both of these mistakes are interestingly, you know, pretty costly. And today I want to help you figure out which one you're making. So let's start here. Let's, let's level set. What actually is your gut? What do we mean with that phrase? Because I don't think it's, it's magic. I don't think it's some mystical inner voice that exists outside of logic. Your gut is nothing more than pattern recognition. It's your brain processing hundreds or thousands of past experiences and observations and outcomes, and it's doing so faster than your, your conscious mind can keep up with. So when a great coach watches a player and says, "Hey, something's off," before they can explain why, that's just pattern recognition. When, when an experienced investor gets a bad feeling about a deal before the numbers are even on the table, that's again just pattern recognition. So gut instinct at its very best is compressed experience, and that's it. But it's genuinely valuable. But, and, and I think this is a pretty big but, it is only as good as the experiences that shaped it. If your past experiences were limited or skewed or frankly just flat out wrong, then your gut will most likely lead you in the wrong direction. And the crazy thing is you may not even question it because it feels right. So it begs the question, when should you trust your gut? Well, I think there's a few specific scenarios or situations where gut deserves real weight. Number 1, when you have deep relevant experience in that exact domain, I think you could trust your gut. Not similar experience, not adjacent experience. I mean that exact domain. A leader who has hired and developed 50 salespeople over 15 years, well, their gut read on a candidate in an interview probably carries some real weight. Because it's built on a, on a foundation of, of actual data. They just maybe can't articulate it in the moment. But that same leader, if you put them in a domain that they've never operated in, maybe it's a new industry or a new market or an entirely new type of decision, that gut feeling now, it, it's not as relevant. It's just preference that's being disguised or dressed up as as wisdom. So number 1, you could trust your gut when you have deep relevant experience in that specific domain. Number 2, when the decision time is— is when this— I'm sorry, when the decision is time sensitive and the cost of being wrong is actually recoverable. It's what Bezos would describe as that two-way door where you could go in but you could come right back out if you make the wrong call. In scenarios like that, your, your gut may be okay because sometimes you don't have the luxury of full analysis. You, you have to make a move. And in those moments, especially when the downside is pretty manageable, I think that gut is a perfectly reasonable tiebreaker. So you make the call, you move forward, and then you adjust as you go. And then number 3, in terms of using your gut, when something feels deeply wrong even though the numbers look fine. I think this one is a little underrated because sometimes the data actually does say yes, and the spreadsheet may check out, the projections look good, but then there's something in you that just says, hey, hold off, wait. Don't ignore that, not because your gut is always right, but because that feeling is, is often detecting something that maybe you haven't consciously identified or processed yet. So just slow down and maybe dig a little bit deeper and figure out what your, your instincts are picking up on. The data might still win out, but at least give your gut a chance to make a case. So now let's flip it. When should you not trust your gut? In other words, when should the data win? Number 1, no surprise, when you're in unfamiliar territory. I know I already said this one, but it bears repeating. If you're in a new market or a new product or a new audience, If you don't have a deep, you know, understanding or relevant experience to draw from, your gut is just a guess. And a guess with confidence is still just a guess. So in these situations, you need data, you need comps, you need benchmarks, test results. I don't care what it— real feedback doesn't matter. Don't let certainty of feeling substitute for certainty of evidence of data. Okay, so when data should win: number 1, when you're in unfamiliar territory. Number 2, when the stakes are high and the decision is really hard to reverse. So it's— if it's a big hire or a major investment, some sort of strategic pivot, these are not gut call decisions. These are decisions that deserve some serious underwriting. Because the cost of being wrong is not just recoverable inconvenience, it's, it's months or even years of damage. I referenced Bezos talking about the two-way door. This would be a one-way door when you can only go in and getting back out is really difficult. In other words, you get a chance to make this decision, but you not be— you may not be able to reverse it. In cases like this, you've got to slow down. You got to look at the numbers. I think your gut can inform the process, but it should not drive the outcome, the data should. And then number 3, when you should be using data, and this is the one I, you know, where I see the most damage be done, when your gut is really just comfort. When what you're calling instinct is just confirmation bias or familiarity or a desire to avoid a hard conversation, that's a good one. Or just not wanting to be wrong. I've seen leaders that have completely blown up great opportunities because the opportunity looked different than what they were used to. It just doesn't feel right. But when you press them, what they really meant was it just doesn't feel familiar. Those are not the same thing. Comfort is not intuition. Being familiar with something is, is not wisdom. And the gut that's really just protecting your ego, see, that gut is what's going to end up costing you. So here's the framework I want you to carry out of here today, okay? Before you make your next significant decision, I want you to ask yourself 2 questions. Question 1: Do I have deep, relevant, domain-specific experience here? If yes, your gut can be used. It's earned a seat at the table. If no, you've got to lead with data. Let gut play a supporting role, maybe, but lead with data. So question 1: Do I have deep, relevant, domain-specific experience here? Question 2: Am I trusting my gut or am I trusting my comfort zone? And you got to be honest here because these two things feel identical in the moment. The difference is that gut is built on experience, comfort is built on familiarity. One will actually move you forward, the other keeps you exactly where you are. So when I think around the best decision makers I know, and I've, I've been around some really great decision makers, they don't choose really between gut and data. They use them both. Data narrows the field, gut makes the final call. Or gut flags something worth investigating and then data either confirms it or challenges it. It's really just a conversation between the two, not so much a competition. I'm gonna go with my gut or I'm gonna go with, with, with the data. I think the leaders who get themselves in trouble are the ones who only speak one language. The pure data person can't make moves without the perfect spreadsheet, that, that person is going to be paralyzed and be slow and miss some windows. And the pure gut person, the one that I was talking to, you know, that I mentioned talking to, that I mentioned at the start of this episode, that pure gut person is confident and decisive, yes, but occasionally he's dangerously wrong. So think about a significant decision you're currently making or one that's coming up in the next 3 30 or 60 days and, and run it through the filters I just described and figure out, you know, am I leaning data, am I leaning gut, and how can I let these two work together as opposed to in competition? And just check yourself, okay? Because your gut hasn't earned the vote all the time, and data shouldn't be overly leaned on all the time. Give them both the weight they deserve, the data and gut together, and I think it's how the best decisions get made. That's all I have for you today, the No Days Off Podcast. Thank you so much for listening, and remember, every single day brings a new opportunity to get better. So let's get after it.