Traditional GDP metrics will fail to measure real economic growth as AI advances toward a singularity. The speaker argues real wealth could double or triple year-over-year, far exceeding the 15% growth conventional statistics show, because current tools can't capture the rapid expansion AI will create.
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I think Anthropic is lowballing estimates. I think the Fed doesn't have, even the regional feds don't have the macroeconomic, likely macroeconomic instrumentation to measure what's about to happen. I think there is a universe in which real GDP, or maybe even real GDP, not quite the right metric as Elon and others would remind us, real wealth growth, call it, is doubling or tripling year over year. The GDP, the regional GDP measures are going haywire, but it's a broken measure anyway. Maybe it looks like 15%, maybe it looks negative. Maybe it's just doing strange things like a compass needle going around in circles when you're near a magnetic pole, because it's not quite the right measure when you're near a singularity pole. But I think if we had the right macroeconomic measures, again, not investment advice, as we get deeper into the singularity, I expect 2x or 3x year-over-year growth and not just 15%. I think 15% is like a lowball.