The Coming Bitcoin Surge w/ Cathie Wood | EP #88

Wouldn't it be great to manage your portfolio on one platform? Well, now you can trade all in one place on Robinhood. That means you can trade individual stocks and ETFs and also buy and sell crypto using seriously powerful and intuitive tools at one of the lowest costs on average without needing to manage multiple apps. Robinhood makes withdrawing and depositing crypto seamless. Send crypto to your Robinhood account or send crypto from your Robinhood account to other wallets without deposit or withdrawal fees from Robinhood. Trade all in one place. Get started now on Robinhood Trading. Crypto involves significant risk. Crypto trading is offered through an account with Robinhood Crypto llc. Robinhood Crypto is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Crypto held through Robinhood Crypto is not FDIC insured or SIPC Protected network fees may apply to crypto transfers. Crypto transfers may not be available to all customers. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal securities. Trading is offered through an account with Robinhood Financial LLC member sipc, a registered broker dealer.

When did making plans get this complicated? It's time to streamline with WhatsApp, the secure messaging app that brings the whole group together. Use polls to settle dinner plans, send event invites and pin messages so no one forgets mom 60th and never miss a meme or milestone. All protected with end to end encryption. It's time for WhatsApp message privately with everyone. Learn more@WhatsApp.com There are 19.6 million Bitcoin out there right now and the highest it will ever go is 21 million. Is this a bubble? And the way we are answering it is. We think in the next five to ten years you will not recognize the world as we know it today.

In the next decade we're going to see as much progress as we've seen in the last century.

What we think is going to happen is not exponential growth, but super exponential growth as we get the convergence between among technologies out there. This is not just a technology, it's a new asset class and beyond that, a global monetary system. It's a big idea everybody.

Welcome to Moonshots. Peter here about to have a conversation with Kathy Wood, the head of Ark Investments, one of the most extraordinary moonshot investors on the planet. Both she and I recently had a conversation with Elon on our channels. Today we're going to talk about artificial intelligence, the coming wave of artificial general intelligence, robo taxis, flying cars, bitcoin, humanoid robots, US Chinese relations and AI all the things that are going to make literally an explosion of exponential wealth and potential over not decades over the next few years between now and 2030. All right, let's jump in everyone. It's Peter. In a few weeks, I'm gathering an incredible group of AI leaders, including Ray Kurzweil, Eric Schmidt, Mustafa Suleiman, Imad Mustak, Michael Saylor and others at my private Abundance Summit to discuss the impact of AI on our lives, our businesses and the world. The Abundance Summit is a private community open to extraordinary moonshot entrepreneurs. It's Singularity University's highest level program and it's not for everyone. If you're at the top of your game and you want to learn more about this program, click on the link below to be considered. Okay, let's go back to the episode. Enjoy. All right. Well, Kathy, you know, one thing I love is that you and I have the same sort of massive transformative purpose and moonshots, you know, seeing disruptive technologies as the mechanism that uplift humanity and create the most progress. And I'm kind of shocked that more people are not on this thesis that more people are not seeing it and not moving towards it, because I'm convinced, you know, I'm 100% convinced of what you have been saying. I've been saying the same thing. But you've made the financial vehicles to enable people. Why do you think people aren't actually seeing it in such a clear fashion?

I think in, in the traditional financial world, which is where there are the trillions and trillions of dollars, the reason is because of the move to passive investing. Now this used not to be a thing. When I started in the business in the late 70s, early 80s, asset managers were all active meant, which simply means they were trying to figure out how the future was going to work. And they would do so using macro analysis, so economics and so forth as well as micro analysis, company by company. And then in 2000 with the tech and telecom bust, we had this shift towards benchmark style investing, accelerated shift benchmarks being S&P 500, NASDAQ MSCI World, and then even more so after 08 09, the financial meltdown, we had an accelerated move towards passive investing. And why was this? It was a self fulfilling prophecy. As more and more active managers became benchmark sensitive, they were bidding up those stocks in the benchmarks, of course. Now the other thing that happened to active managers, which was really terrible is while they were doing that, they were charging fees. They were charging fees and yet they were starting to look like These benchmarks that don't charge fees. And so they were already behind the benchmarks at the start of every year just because of their fees. And so you had the self fulfilling prophecy and now what we have is, I think it's almost 75%, definitely north of 50% of all assets under management are in, in the passive style, which means they simply mimic a benchmark. I believe this is the most massive misallocation of capital in history because there is no, I, I can't tell you how many conferences I've gone to in the ETF world, which is mostly passive, where it's starting to turn active, but how many ETF conferences I'll go and I'll see. There are no Bloomberg machines, no broadcasts, CNBC or Bloomberg or Fox Business News, nothing. Guess what? They don't care what's in the index. All they care about is how closely the index tracks the, the S and P or the nasdaq. So there's a loss of brain power in the industry. And I think there is, there's a, you know, one of the things, honestly one of the things that I say is here you have the best and the brightest coming out of the elite schools into our business. And I think I'm, I'm going to, I'm sure I'm going to be criticized for saying this, but I think we lose their brains to this quant way of looking at the world which slices and dices indexes. Indexes are at the heart of every, all the quant analysis.

And so I mean, yeah, I agree with you and it's such a large institutional force that bucking the system is very, very difficult and risky. You've done it and thank you for that. And I think again, like I said in the beginning, I think your thesis is going to prove out not by a little bit, but by orders of magnitude at the end of the day.

And can I say, Peter, just sorry to interrupt you, but what happened to. I think there were a lot of people in 17, 18, 19, 20 who were looking at what we're doing and they were starting to copy us. And I was thrilled with that. And then we hit 21 and 22, which was a bloody disaster.

Interest rates fear causes retrenchment to the norm.

Well, and a 24 fold increase in interest rates never happened in history. Crucified all long duration assets, even bonds, long term bonds, which were where safety was supposed to be. They had their worst year in 250 years since the 1700s. So you know, we, we couldn't Win. Now I think we're on the other side of that now. People are trying to figure out why aren't long term interest rates continuing to go up if the Fed says inflation is still an issue and they're not going up? Because the real issue is deflation.

Yeah. And technology is a deflationary force in a very good way. It's an efficiency, an efficiency magnifying force.

Productivity boom.

Yeah, yeah, agreed. The other thing that's going on, Kathy, that I keep on seeing and I had this conversation with Ray Kurzweil, who's a dear friend, he's my co. Founder of Singularity. He's sort of the, the high priest of exponential thinking, if you would. Right. And Ray and I were talking about this. He'll be with me at the Abundance Summit in a couple of weeks and we're talking about how absolutely challenging it is for people to think in exponential fashion. That despite all of the evidence they keep seeing over and over and over again, they still extrapolate in a linear fashion. And they do. And it's, it's, it's crazy. I mean, anyway, I want to get into this conversation here before, can we.

Before we go further there. It's such an important point in the financial world. Exponential, that concept, the last time investors heard it was during the tech and telecom bubble. And for them that ended badly. Now they just don't believe it. They don't believe it's possible to sustain growth rates at 15, 20, 25% plus per year. But what we think is going to happen is not exponential growth, but super exponential growth as we get the convergence between among technologies out there.

So this is the other side. These are overlapping waves of exponentials that cause tsunamis. Right. And, and I like to say, how do you know you need to surf on top of the tsunami instead of being crushed by it?

Absolutely.

You know the analogy I use, which I welcome you, I love this analogy, is the 10 kilometer asteroid that hit the planet 65 million years ago. Right. So this 10 kilometer asteroid hits the planet, it changes the environment so rapidly that the slow lumbering dinosaurs are unable to adapt. But it's the furry mammals that are agile, that are able to rapidly adapt to the environment and then become the dominant players. And the massive asteroid hitting planet Earth today are these converging exponential technologies and they're going to change everything faster? Faster than people can possibly imagine?

Yes. We think in the next five to ten years you will not recognize the world as we know it today. And we just put on something called big ideas Summit here in St. Petersburg, Florida to as.

That's right. You moved to St. Petersburg.

Yes, yes. And really innovative, optimistic spirit down here, I must say. And just trying to communicate to people, not just investors, but parents, grandparents, this is how you steer students into this way of thinking and have them catch these waves because they're going to be enormous and make sure they stay away from the disrupted or the disintermediated or the soon to be destroyed.

You know, I'm going to share this with you a little bit off the subject, but related. I just gave a talk to my kids school to all of the teachers. They're in sixth grade right now, in middle school. And I asked two questions at the beginning. It was a talk on exponential technologies and where our world is going because I don't think our schools are preparing our kids anywhere close to to for what's coming. And I asked the question, how many of you. And this is the teachers in the room, 150 of them. How many of you think that the world was better off 40 or 50 years ago? Two thirds of the room raised their hand, right, wow. And then I asked a second question. How many of you think that the lives of our children will be better in the future? 2 out of the 150 raised their hand and I was like, oh, wrong school.

What, what. Let me ask you, what age group the, the.

These were middle school and high school teachers.

Such an important time.

100. And at the end of the day, we have to realize that those of you who are parents listening to this, think about who's preparing your kids for the future. Because honestly, the future, if they're in middle school or high school, their future is going to be not a little bit different, it's going to be dramatically different. What you know, Ray and I talk about is in the next decade we're going to see as much progress as we've seen the last century. So think what it was like in 1924 to today. Right. That's their future.

Yeah, we're. When we're trying to help people understand the same thing again, not just investors, but anybody. We often say the last time we had multiple innovation platforms evolving at the same time was in the early 1900s, late 1800s, early 1900s. And, and absolutely right. That's what, you know, got everyone off the farms and into the new world. Right. This is the same, but it's on steroids compared to that.

I, I think it's a starship compared to a bottle rocket. So, you know, there's so much to Talk about. And so much extraordinary things. I mean, the, the grandfather of all of the, you know. Well, first of all, the underlying bedrock of this is computation. It is the massive explosion of processing power, cloud, GPUs. But that layer on top of that is AI, which is what all I'm talking about right now and everything that you're principally talking about right now. My thesis for the Abundant Summit in a few weeks is the Great AI Debate. And we'll have Eric Schmidt and Mustafa Suleiman and Ray Kurzweil and Jeffrey Hinton and a whole bunch of amazing people there. And it's going to be a conversation to help people flesh out the idea of am I a boomer or a doomer? Is this the most important technology? Should we go as fast as we can, slow it down and of course it is the most important technology and we don't fully understand it and we can't slow it down if we wanted to even.

That's right, that's right. And the one thing I will say about that, in terms of the doomers, I'm glad there are a lot of people worried about it because half of the solution is understanding the problem and being very straightforward about it. And I was very happy to learn about hallucinations and confabulations and all of the things that could go wrong. And then also to even, you know, someone during one of our brainstorms raised the idea that, wait a minute, wait a minute. Could these confabulations be the same as what human beings go through when they dream? Could this actually, could this be channeled into something very interesting? Let's not denigrate it. Let's think about it. Let's maybe harness it.

You know, I love that. You know, one fun thing I've done, I've always wanted to do this. You know, the Abundance Summit is part of Singularity University. Ray Kurzwein. I started that God 14, 15 years ago. And I always dreamt about having AI faculty. And so for this, this year, for the first time, we've got a number of AI faculty and AI robot faculty amica will be teaching a session on humanoid robotics with me. And then we have, we have, we have Raybot, Ray Kurzweil, be there physically, but also as a, an avatar. And it's going to truly reinvent the entire educational ecosystem in a massive fashion.

Oh, absolutely. Personalized tutors. Absolutely can. While we're on education. And I wanted to say this earlier, but one of the reasons we moved to St. Petersburg is because of this innovative spirit after what? After two years of being here. ARCS research, as you say, it's not being taught in the schools. ARCS research has been made age appropriate for sixth graders, so that ARCS research is the science curriculum for all of sixth grade throughout Pinellas county and soon to be all of middle school.

That's awesome.

It's awesome. That is awesome.

Because at the end of the day, this is not only what our kids are going to inherit, but what they're going to have to lead.

Yes, yes, absolutely. Absolutely. One foot in the new world. Okay. Excite them about it, you know, and, and especially in the lower socioeconomic, you know, demographic. Tell them this is the great leveler. This, this is the great leveler. Catch this wave and your life and your family's life will be delightful.

You know, I think that is such an important point. One of the things I talk about a lot is the, what I call the six Ds of exponential. That when you digitize something, you're dematerialized, demonetized, and democratize it. It's deceptive in the beginning, then disruptive in the end. And Google, for example, isn't a little bit better for Larry Page's kids compared to the poorest kids. It's identical. It is complete leveler and AI is the same. And in fact, there was a study done, I think it was out of Microsoft, that looked at the impact it had on high end workers and low end workers and it actually brought up the low end higher than it brought up the high end. So it is a leveling force.

So that was a big Bain consulting study. It was a study of Bain consultants. And we put this in our big ideas this year. The improvement of the high performing consultants after I think this was GPT3 chat. GPT was, was 17%. The improvement of the lower performing consultants was 43%. Think about that. It's crazy.

I probably got it from one of your tweets. I love the social media that you and your team put out. So let's dive. I want to dive into AI. I want to dive into autonomous cars, robo taxis, flying cars. I want to talk a little bit about biotech and my personal favorite subject, which is longevity, which I think the two biggest financial markets on the planet are going to be AI and longevity. Because I still, when I'm in a crowd and I say, how many of you would, how much of your wealth would you pay for an extra 20 healthy years?

You know, it's a lot.

It's a lot. It's, it's most of a person's wealth at the end of the day, if they're being honest with themselves. So it's a massive market. We can talk about that. There should be some ETFs around the longevity side too. AI. So I what are you most excited about in the AI world right now? There's so much to be excited about.

Well, again, it's AI and the convergence with everything. And so in fact, our chief futurist, Brett Winton wrote the convergence part of our big ideas. And you can talk about excitement from a number of angles. So in terms of how our lives are going to change, I think the biggest from a revenue impact for, you know, investors to think about is autonomous mobility and, and what it's going to do to transportation. It's interesting. We just had a presentation. They're going to redo St. Petersburg around the new, the new Tampa Bay Rays baseball team. And it's just going to transform it. And when I mentioned to that organization that do you know, because they were focused a lot on parking, I said, did you know that for every car on the road in the United States today, there are five parking spaces? But the world's going to change and we will only need one of those parking spots per car. So, you know, 20% of the parking spaces is all we'll need that. So we think that autonomous taxi platforms are an 8 to $10 trillion revenue opportunity by 2030. Now, a lot of people dismiss us out of hand now because Elon has been predicting this for the as as this year, for the last four or five years. And now that in this last quarterly report he said, I, I know that I've been doing this and I know I've been wrong. So I'm not going to give you a time that probably means we're really close now. You know what I mean? It's just how human psychology is.

I do. You and I both did a Twitter spaces with Elon in the last few months and he's, you know, been a friend for 24 years. He, I would never bet against him and not even I remember, you know, in the reusability space. I was, you know, I met him before he started SpaceX because we were both were space cadets and we were having dinner and you're sketching out for me when the Falcon 9 was first launching, how he wanted to make the Falcon 9 first stage reusable and resell it for the same price or maybe higher because it was a proven first stage. And I was like, that's incredibly brilliant. And of course that's happened in spades. And now Starship is about to occur and of course, you know, our cars are idle, what, 95%, 97% of the time.

Yes, yes.

I want to push that big button on my, I have a Model X and a Model S and go out, make me money.

Right, yeah, that's. We, I really think it, we really think it's going to happen and that, that it's an enormous opportunity. It will, it will lower the cost of transportation dramatically and so therefore we will get more of it. So you know, I know that Mary Bara at GM says zero congestion. That's just not true. We will get more congestion. It's just we will then take to the skies and, and that's what started our air taxi work. So mobility for all kinds of things, delivery of food, you know, people and so forth. Moving to the skies.

Yeah, my, the example I give is, I want you to imagine, I mean we will get rid of our cars or if you're a two or three family car, family, you know, in two or three cars in your family, you'll get, you know, rid of a couple and leave one. I imagine you're at breakfast, you're, you're getting up from breakfast with your kids, you're walking towards the front door. Your AI knows, your calendar knows, your schedule is watching you walk towards the front door. It's, it knows that you didn't sleep much the night before and it has, it has, it pulls up in front of your house is an autonomous Tesla or Uber or whatever it may be with a lie down bed in the back, right. Taking you where you need to go. You never, it will be seamless and you'll never have to ask. It'll be. The term I use is automatical. Right.

And there will be lots of different form factors, as you say, some for sleeping, some for entertainment, some for office study work.

You know, my numbers are that an electric autonomous car will be four times cheaper than car ownership. I'm not sure if you go further than that.

Yeah, we have it really being a third of including everything. And you'll see that in our big ideas and in our study as well because insurance, depreciation, maintenance, all of that. So we've got it at roughly a third.

Yes, but it's probably 4x if you include productivity, time.

That's a good point. That, that, that's a good point. I was going to say something else, just lost it. But yeah.

Well, I'll say the thing that's interesting is that the poorest people on the planet will be chauffeured around most efficiently. Right. It's a leveling, it's a leveling of the playing field.

It is, it is, yeah. So when people talk adenigrate technology as creating the great divide, I just ask them, you know, okay, do you think the cell phone bringing the world together hurt, hurt people at the lower. No, it helped them, help them enormously. You know, I remember when, when I lived in Ireland, which I did as a child, I remember how important, you know, learning about the rest of the world was there weren't any TVs in the households when I lived there. That was a long time ago and it was a very rural, rural part of Ireland. And, and so when one person got a TV and got to see how the rest of the world lived, transformed their lives and the same thing happened with cell phones and smartphones. Right?

Yeah. And, and now the fact that you can make a video call for effectively for free if you're on wi fi just continues to blow my mind.

I know.

You know, I love earlier this year and we could talk about Tesla versus, versus GM or other, or Waymo. You know, earlier this year when Tesla replaced 300,000 lines of C code with 3,000 lines of basically a large language model. That was amazing. And you know, and the, I love using self driving on my, on my Tesla. It, you know, it scares me on occasion, but it works really well 98% of the time.

Yeah, we've done some great statistics around this. You know, I, I'm, I'm shocked, I'm shocked when I go to conferences now and if they're, if they're on the conservative side of things, I'm seeing this anti EV vehicle. But you present, you present anyone with these facts and you understand why this is going to take off. So this is a measure of safety. How many miles between accidents for the average car on the road?

Don't know.

Now this is on surface street driving, not highway. Okay, so surface street, the hardest. 190,000 miles on average. Okay. Yep. In a Tesla without FSD, that number is roughly 600,000 miles. In a Tesla with FSD, it is 3.2 million miles. Wow, wow, wow. So yeah, again, any, you know, this is how Volvo made its brand and its name was safety. Sure.

So yeah, yeah, no, I'm, I'm, I'm thrilled by it. And then as you said, in addition to our, our electric autonomous cars, the other thing that convergence is enabling, of course, what, you know, in autonomous Volvo, autonomous Tesla is a convergence play. You know, I, I, I Think about the convergence play on EVTOLs, which I hate that term. Electric vertical takeoff for landing. I'm going to call them flying cars.

Yes. Air taxis.

Taxis. Okay. That's extraordinary. And coming soon. And the price point, you know, I was speaking to the CEO of Archer and their goal is the price point for a pilot and for paying passengers is the same as taking a, you know, an Uber drive. That will be amazing, I think.

And it's going to be here sooner than I think people imagine. Of course, we have to get the regulators in gear here. That's the, that's going to be the gating factor, because I think we're almost there, Peter, in terms of. I mean, we did this study on getting from Manhattan to JFK for roughly the same. Yeah, for roughly the same cost as a taxi. I think we're almost there now. I mean, technically, we're almost there now. Of course, it has to scale to, to make sense. You won't go straight down to the taxi rate right away because of the massive amount of convenience. And these companies do have to earn a rate of return for all of the investment that they've put in. But I think we're there now. We just need to scale it.

And of course, what's happening is we're seeing a regulatory arbitrage where companies are going to Saudi or Dubai or China or India because the regulators are more supportive, which is fine. But the old adage for the FAA is we're not happy until you're not happy.

Yeah. Well, you know, it's interesting. We saw when we first started studying drones in 2014, when I founded Ark, I think Amazon was on its ninth generation drone. And at that time, this is 2014, the FAA would not let Amazon fly its drones outside on its own property. It had to be inside. And so they went to Hong Kong, India, as you say, uk. I think they went on Australia. I mean, it's. And of course, the same thing has happened with crypto, you know, broadly. You know, a lot of talent has left this country and, and, and a lot of the asset managers in Europe don't even want American customers because of our regulators.

Yeah, I see, I see that. And when I'm, when I'm coaching entrepreneurs, you know, I'm like, please take your vision beyond the US Borderline. You know, it's interesting. I was Kai Fu Lee, I'm sure you know, Kai Fu out of sinovations in China, and I used to take a group of American investors there to Shenzhen and Shanghai and Beijing to go meet the Chinese companies and entrepreneurs and I remember two distinct things. Number one was the work life. Balance was their motto was 996 which I'm sure you're right in 9am to 9pm six days a week. The second thing was a Chinese entrepreneur looks at the one point something billion Chinese market and the 300 million US market while the US entrepreneurs are basically just looking at the US market and it's a big world out there with po, with porous borders and sometimes regulations allow you to start faster elsewhere and then you know, in the biotech world in particular because we humans are all the same globally.

Yeah. You know, it's interesting. I'd love to get your thoughts Peter, on China, China and GPUs. Do you think that the, the sanctions that the US has placed on China will embolden them to, to become much more creative and focused on getting their own GPUs, much like in the 80s when we banned cars, Japanese cars from the US or certain kinds of cars or put enormous tariffs on, encouraged Japan to become the highest quality because at the time they were junk. The highest quality. Most innovative auto companies in the world.

I have no question at all for a multitude of reasons the Chinese will invest and, and you know, I was talking to some of my friends who run large language model fun, you know, focused AI companies today and their belief is that China's LLMs are at or above the GPT4 level already and will be. And you know, one of the things that the Chinese companies have as advantages are a government that puts their finger on the scale and.

Absolutely.

And creates regulatory reforms to support them and causes capital to flow in. So there are very few restrictions and despite that America does incredibly well. But that is a. China is going to play big in the chip world and in the AI world for sure.

I think their property issues and just the massive over leveraging that took place over the 20 years after they entered the WTO. Just buy the dip. Buy the dip. Leverage up, Leverage up. Has come back to haunt them and that they need to change the subject. So what I'm hoping is that it's not Taiwan but that it is actually their own prowess in AI.

Everybody, I want to take a short break from our episode to talk about a company that's very important to me and could actually save your life or the life of someone that you love. The company is called Fountain Life and it's a company I started years ago with Tony Robbins and a group of very talented physicians. You know, most of us don't actually know what's going on inside our body. We're all optimists until that day when you have a pain in your side. You go to the physician in the emergency room and they say, listen, I'm sorry to tell you this, but you have this stage three or four going on and you know, it didn't start that morning. It probably was a problem that's been going on for some time. But because we never look, we don't find out. So what we built at Fountain Life was the world's most advanced diagnostic centers. We have four across the US today, and we're building 20 around the world. These centers give you a full body mri, a brain, a brain vasculature, an AI enabled coronary CT looking for soft plaque, DEXA scan, a grail blood cancer test, a full executive blood workup. It's the most advanced workup you'll ever receive. 150 gigabytes of data that then go to our AIs and our physicians to find any disease at the very beginning when it's solvable. You're going to find out eventually. Might as well find out when you can take action. Found Life over also has an entire side of therapeutics. We look around the world for the most advanced therapeutics that can add 10, 20 healthy years to your life. And we provide them to you at our centers. So if this is of interest to you, please go and check it out. Go to fountainlife.com Peter when Tony and I wrote our New York Times bestseller LifeForce, we had 30,000 people who reached out to us for Fountain Life memberships. If you go to fountainlife.com Peter will put you to the top of the list. Really, it's something that is, for me, one of the most important things I offer my Entire family, the CEOs of my companies, my friends. It's a chance to really add decades onto our healthy lifespans. Go to fountainlife.com Peter just one of the most important things I can offer to you as one of my listeners. All right, let's go back to our episode. Speaking of AI, let's go to the conversation around AGI and digital superintelligence. The first thing I'll say is we passed the Turing Test without anyone noticing a long time ago. Hey, everybody, did you notice we passed the Turing Test a thousand times over in the last couple of years, or the last year at least? AGI, you put out a beautiful curve that looks at people's predictions of when we're going to have human level intelligence. Right. In 1999, Ray Kurzweil famously predicted 2029. Pretty ballsy. Thirty years out to predict a single year.

And they thought he was crazy.

Prediction, thought he was crazy. Impossible. It's 100 years out, it's 50 years out. And so what did that curve you put out say?

So it said as recently as 2019. So that's 30 years after. Was it? He put it out in 99. Did you say it was?

Yeah, 1999.

Yeah, yeah. So okay, 20 years later in 2019. Futurists, these aren't just normal, you know, forecasters of technology, but actual futurists. It's a, a survey. Brett Winton, our chief futurist, AI and.

AI focused futurists as well.

Exactly, exactly. So 2019, those futurists said AGI was 80 years away today, today, eight years away. So Ray curse. And if they continue to make the same forecasting error, it could be three to four years away. And there you go. I mean Ray may have hit it on the mark.

Nailed it. Yeah, nailed it. And we'll celebrate him in 2029. You know, Elon's predictions have been between 2025 and 2028. And he said, basically, listen, Ray got it right and of course the question becomes, all right, and so what, we have human level AI? Because I still think of much of the AI systems that I'm using right now in their focused area are much better than humans. It's just we don't have a generalized AI. But what happens next of course is where we have a singularity. You know, we talk about a singularity is a, is a horizon beyond which you can't predict what's going to happen next and there's going to be an AI Singularity When AIs are self programming themselves and when we get to digital super intelligence, you know, because fine, if we have human level AI in 2029, by 2030, you know, it's 2x4x10x. Because the doubling time in the AI world in terms of algorithms capital compute has been less than Moore's Law. It's been faster than Moore's Law.

Yes, every, yeah, every three to four months. Forget about two, 18 months to two years. It's, it's unbelievable because AI training costs are dropping 75% per year. AI inference costs according to our estimates and research are dropping 85, 90% per year.

And the amount of capital, amount of capital going in, amount of capital going in. Now what do you predict that at.

Number, you mean the amount of capital.

Being invested into, into AI related computer companies and so forth. I mean Last year the prediction I think was like about 150 to 180 billion went in. And I just see this as a, as a. Everybody's pouring capital in.

Yes. And so here is the question there that we're getting all the time, is this, is this a bubble? And the way we are answering it is, no, this is not a bubble. This is. There's something.

Was Electricity. Electricity, a bubble?

Exactly, exactly. Now, is there too much capital chasing, you know, chasing the same thing? That could be. I can tell you, you know, we've had in, in and you know the headlines. I'm not saying anything that, that you don't know, but we have been pulling away from Nvidia mostly because we see how well understood that story is. And it is, and, and all praise to Jensen Huang and his incredible team. You know, they have done so much of the heavy lifting up, you know, as we've evolved to this level. Now, however it is, we're the companies in our portfolio that are hugely undervalued and not recognized for what AI is going to enable are those with deep domain expertise. And especially in one of your favorite areas, Peter, the multi omic space. So deep domain expertise, AI expertise, take this seriously. This is going to determine winners and losers, good distribution, whether alone or with partners, and then finally, most important, harnessing that proprietary data, data that a company has that nobody else has. So that's where we're spending our money.

I tell my entrepreneurs, you've got to wrap your arms around your data. What data you want to collect, what data do you have, what data you're going to gather for sure. So when I'm looking at ARC for investments in AI, is it the Innovation fund, is it the Autonomous Tech fund and Robotics Fund? Which ETF do you have most of your AI assets in?

Well, when we think AI arkw is probably the most focused. But AI, as I mentioned before, is going to permeate every sector, every industry, and should impact every company. And so our flagship strategy has the multi omics in it as well. And we think that there will be some of the most profound applications of AI in the multiomic space, which is incredibly out of favor. I know, you know, when.

It'S been a bloodbath. Biotech stocks.

Yeah, yeah. And when the critic, shall I say, see a sale of, a sale of Nvidia and the purchase of Recursion, which by the way, Nvidia's venture firm owns and is very picky about what it owns too, especially in the life sciences space, they go crazy. They don't understand, they don't understand that recursion is from a drug discovery point of view, getting superior results because of AI and because of Nvidia.

Yeah. You know, you know my friend who runs in silica medicine, which is another AI driven drug discovery company, he was creating generative pre trained transformers around molecule designs before it was a term. And it's amazing because all of a sudden drug discovery costs are, Dr. Are collapsing and what people don't realize is AI is the first act, Quantum is coming next and it's going to, you know, if people, yeah, I don't, I don't know how people are going to deal with the disruption, the speed of disruption. We're, we're, we're about to announce an X prize with Google in the quantum space, by the way, so stay tuned for that. And I have Hartmut Nevin, who's the head of Google's Quantum on stage with me this month and he was telling me that they're about to make some huge announcement in the quantum space as it relates to classical computing. And so I'm super excited when quantum starts to become part of the infrastructure of our day to day lives. And we don't realize it, but things are just instant and magical. It's coming and I think it's not, you know, it's, it's in the near term, it's within everybody's investment horizon and job horizon and leadership horizon, education horizon and no one is getting us ready for it.

Yeah. You know, just to jump back to the last point because I think something, you know, as we say, new discoveries and just kind of unlocking the, the code to life, death and death and disease, that, that is what's going on now and this, this convergence between multi omic sequencing and artificial intelligence. But one of the more practical things that I, I think astonish people who are in, in the research business, shall I say, is that the number, if we're right, the number of trial failures and you know, 90% plus of trials fade, 95% of trials, they fail, that's going to drop by we think 75%. And that's going to be a huge unlock of resources. Very practical, huge unlock of resources and.

What people understand, you're going to select who's in your trial. More accurately, one thing people don't realize when you're taking a drug that's been approved for a disease by the fda, the percentage of people who have that disease for which the drug actually works is like under 20%.

Yes, yes.

It's crazy.

What's very interesting. Again this is in big ideas is if you look at the drugs that the FDA has approved for the proteome. Now today it is only. They target only 4% of the proteome. We think with yeah targeted protein degradators and degraders and multi omic sequencing that is going to shoot up over the years. This is a slow moving because of regulatory but to 56, 58%.

You know one of the things I want to get to my, my favorite pet subject on human health span and longevity. We just launched the largest x Prize ever. $111 million of capital for the team that could reverse loss of function in muscle, immune and cognition by 20 years or more. Right. So we have 300 teams hopefully get to a thousand teams competing for this X prize. It's funded out of Saudi and out of the U.S. but what folks don't realize is you know, we've all accepted death at like 80, 90 years old. It's like just the way it is. And you know there are species on this planet. Bowhead whales that live to 200 years and Greenland sharks that live to 500 years have, have pups at 200 years. And the question is why can they and why can't we? And when I was in medical school years ago, for me the realization was it's either a hardware problem or software problem and we're going to be able to eventually solve it. I think this is the decade that we have the tools to understand why we age, how to slow it, how to stop it, how to reverse it. And you want to talk about impact on society. Imagine if at 70, 80, 90 you had the energy when you had a 30 or 40. Right. There was a study out of Harvard David Sinclair did that said adding just one year of health to the US population is worth $38 trillion. I have to track those numbers down. I mean if you google it. That's insane.

Yeah, that's interesting that, that you say that I had when you were mentioning the whales I was thinking okay, cold baths. That's definitely one of the reasons. Right.

I think it has to do with their, their particular genes that allow them to detect and slay cancerous. But we've now got the tools to go and, and re program ourselves. Right? The tools around CRISPR and around gene editing.

Absolutely, absolutely. And what's so interesting in the, in, in the traditional financial world, we own all of the crispr, pretty much all of the major CRISPR stocks. And yet you know, and we get questions like why do you own those they're, they, they, they. There's no EBITDA there because this is so new. Just approved by the FDA for beta thalassemia and sickle cell disease. That's Crispr Therapeutics and Vertex. This is what I'm talking about we talked about at the beginning of this spaces and podcast. It is investors in the traditional financial world not willing to invest in the future. Isn't that something, what is investing? In fact, when I started Ark and I was trying to, to explain to someone not in the financial business why I needed to start Ark, he ended up replaying it back to me and he said, oh, you mean the future of investing is investing in the future? And I said yes, bingo. Because these benchmarks are all about the past. Right.

And by the way, I think the old economic systems and theories and practices have all broken. I think they've all, all. If I had more time I'd write an economics book because it old economics don't bear witness to what's going on today.

Well, I think that there are many economic theories. I think the right one is the Austrian school. And you know that people who, who understand the world from that angle are making sense of all of this. But I agree that, and I, I, I also agree that regulation and government policy is typically in the way, typically in the way.

You know, I, the, the theme I love is the best way to predict the future is create yourself. And one of the things that you're doing through your investing, I'm doing through my investing or the companies I'm starting is let's make this happen. Let's not moan about it, let's not worry about it. Let's actually go and solve. The truth will win out. And I believe there is no problem we cannot solve. And the best way to become a billionaire is help a billion people. And those convergent principles uplift humanity in a beautiful way.

And I think as you say, as far as human longevity, just use first principles. Thinking just because something has been done one way for a hundred years, think automobile production doesn't mean that's the way it should be in the future. That's what Elon has done and has, you know, helped help many people understand. Wait a minute, can I think about this in a different way? And, and that's good. Just challenging conventional wisdom again. The more that happens, the more what you are saying is, is going to prove to be correct. Truth will win out.

Yes. I mean there's so many subjects to go on. How do you, how do you make short term trades on these on these waves of exponentials. What's your thesis there?

Yeah, we get all kinds of questions on this, as you might imagine, especially anytime we sell Tesla or Nvidia. So we in, in high conviction names that are still, we believe going to deliver us our minimum hurdle rate of return, which is 15% at a compound annual rate over five years. So on average per year, 15% like a Tesla in spades. I mean so much more than that if we're right. But we will, we will. When it, when it goes through a massive move to the upside. Last year at one point it was up 150% and we started taking profits because guess what? Some of these multi omics names were getting crushed and we needed, you know, when you have only 100% to work with, you need to trade around ideas. So take some of those profits from something that's up 150% and buy something that is down 15% in the same year. You know, sell high, buy low. Kind of a very basic investment tenant. Now does that mean it Tesla leaves our top five? No. In fact it's still number two. Coinbase in our flagship fund is number one because of the massive move that it has had and you'll see us taking profits there as well. So I want to get, I want.

To move to Bitcoin in a second, but I want to ask you another question. So I mean I just have to imagine that Elon will become the first trillionaire. I have no way of, of not imagining that.

I, I think he will. And we have to get the court system out of determining CEO pay shareholders. We were, we were, we were among the 73% of shareholders who voted for that pay package, just delighted with it, saying, wow, if he really will not take a salary, will not take a bonus until he, you know, double, at least double minimum doubles the share price and then takes the, the stock up and revenue up and EBITDA up by as much as these 12 tranches of. If he does that, this stock is going to go crazy. And it did, it went up 13 fold and the, and they're using some.

If only he had performed over the last decade or so.

Oh my gosh, you know, think about that. They were using some, a very, you know, esoteric legal fairness clause. And it was like, are you kidding me? That was so fair to shareholders taking no pay, everything in options, all on the come, all on performance. You know, if, if more CEOs were like that, we'd have a much stronger economy, much better performing companies.

Yeah, without question. Hey everyone I want to take a quick break from this episode to tell you about a health product that I love and that I use every day. In fact, I use it twice a day. It seeds DSO1 daily symbiotic. Hopefully by now you understand that your microbiome and your gut health are one of the most important modifiable parts of your health. You know, your gut microbiome is connected to everything. Your brain health, your cardiac health, your metabolic health. So the question is, what are you doing to optimize your gut? Let me take a moment to tell you about what I'm doing. Every day I take two capsules of seeds DSO one daily symbiotic. It's a 2 in 1 probiotic and prebiotic formulation that supports digestive health, gut health, skin health, heart health, and more. It contains 24 clinically and scientifically proven probiotic strains that are delivered in a patented capsule that actually protects the contents from your stomach acid and ensures that 100% of it is survivable reaching your colon. Now, if you Want to try seeds DS01 Daily Symbiotic for yourself, you can get 25% off your first month supply by using the code PETER25 at checkout. Just go to seed.commoonshots and enter the code PETER25 at checkout. That's seed.commoonshots and use the code PETER25 to get your 25% off the first month month of seeds Daily Symbiotic. Trust me, your gut will thank you. All right, let's go back to the episode Bitcoin. Congrats on your etf. It's done very well. You're number three now.

Number three. You know, this was David against Goliath and you know, so this is a, a, a, a very nice win for us. Now we're not finished. And in fact, in our business, what's interesting is, is the wirehouses which dominate our customers. So Morgan Stanley, all the advisors at these wirehouses, Morgan Stanley, UBS Merrill lynch, at B of A Wells Fargo, not one of them has approved bitcoin on its platform. That hasn't even happened yet. Those are our primary clients. When that happens, wait until you see explosion. Explosion.

Yeah, I used to. Years and years ago, I went on CNBC saying, I sold all my gold and I bit, I bought bitcoin and I said it's, you know, it follows the 60s roadmap. It's digitized, dematerialized, demonetized, and democratized. And in all of these things, you have slow deceptive growth and Then it becomes disruptive and we're just at, I mean it's been a slow disruption, but institutional in the institutions coming on and then governments following. I mean the ship has sailed.

Yes, it has. And this is not just a technology, it's a new asset class. Right. And beyond that, it's a global monetary system. You know, it is the first global private meaning no government oversight, digital and decentralized. Rules based, that's the most important word here, rules based monetary system in history. It's a big idea.

Yeah, it, it is. I'm going to have Mike Seller on my, on my stage the same place that you spoke last time. And we're going to spend a couple of hours talking about this. But not just Bitcoin as a store of value, but Bitcoin related applications. Right. Where's Lightning Network going? This is, you know, Bitcoin is, I've heard you say this, the, the financial side of the Internet that did not exist in the 90s. And it's also the mechanism that AI is going to be using to implement its will or your will through it on the world.

Yes. What we, we did something called Bitcoin Brainstorm. We do a Bitcoin brainstorm monthly and one of them was the convergence between Bitcoin and AI and we had, you'll probably know of his, his developer named Rose Beef from the lightning, from the lightning network on and he was talking about how in Africa already this convergence is redefining division of labor. I mean the gig economy we understand here in the United States put that on steroids in terms of micro, micro gig economy in the emerging markets and you have a whole, a whole new kind of economy. So yes, very exciting.

Yeah. We can see the hash rate exploding onto the scene having, coming and you know, I hate to ask predictions again but I think I remember your sort of bear case meeting case and best case. Give us some of those numbers as you see them.

Yes, well, we have all kinds of metrics but when I was at abundance, the, the forecast was our bull case was $1.5 million in five years. So that would have been 2027. We still have time and, and we still think that's going to be right. If you just look at the institutional push into Bitcoin, this new asset class, they have to consider it as fiduciaries. When you use that co those code words, new asset class, what it means the correlation of these returns are very low compared to those of other assets.

Especially as bonds and stocks are becoming more correlated.

You need something uncorrelated yes, absolutely, absolutely. And so they have to consider it. Now what are we saying? There are 19.6 million bitcoin out there right now and the highest it will ever go is 21 million. Uh, well, okay, there's real scarcity value. And what, what is going to happen? The price increase for every institutional dollar pushing in now is going to be much higher than it was last year, two years ago. It's, you know, we're going to get into if these institutions really want to own it. What I found fascinating recently, just learned it this morning, is typically when you go through a price move, a bitcoin price move to the upside, you usually see long term holders, which is a metric we monitor, it's an on chain analytics metric and it means people who have not moved or wallets that have not moved their Bitcoin in 155 days or more. Yes, well normally when you go through a price move to the upside, a very nice one like we've seen in the last year, that tends to start moving down. And it did that true to form, but it has reversed in recent days because what we learned is GBTC sold some of its bitcoin. So that was. Those wallets hadn't been changed in a long time. Right now that is done, at least for the time being. Now that is done and it's going back up again as the price goes up. That's highly unusual and I think it is because the long term holder saying why would I sell now when I know all these institutions which own nothing, own nothing in this realm, in this new asset class and they have to consider it because it is a new asset class.

I have friends of mine who are just setting up their, their bitcoins. They can borrow against it. No one wants to sell. Everyone is convinced it's an uptick. And so on to a couple of questions here. A friend of mine who you know, Bill Barheit, who's the CEO of Abra, right. Is one of the last man's last men standing. He's done an amazing, amazing job. What's your, what do you think of as the, the future of defi and the future of banking with regard to this?

Yes. And first let me tell you a little story about bill. In 2017, when Bitcoin was below a thousand dollars and there was a war going on between the bitcoin maximalists and you know, those focused on bitcoin, the Ethereum network. Chris Bernisky, you may know him, he was our first crypto analyst and went off to start placeholder, he decided, you know what, we should have a meetup at our office between the Bitcoin and Ethereum supporters. And we'll, we'll provide religion. Yeah. We'll provide rules of the road. And Bill was the grownup in the room, set the tone from, you know, the Ethereum side. And we had a talk, such a productive talk that I went out and bought Ether right away. We own, you know, I already owned a lot of Bitcoin because it was so convincing that there is a place for both.

Bill is a brilliant adult in this space. Yes, for sure.

Yes, yes. And so, yes, we're very excited about the Ethereum network and Solana. And so they all play different roles and what I love is there's kind of a little competition. I think competition is always good to keep the other networks honest. And so yes, we think that decentralized finance and we do call it now the Internet financial system, which is really a Christian point that.

Yes, I like that because it's, it really, it really talks about the functionality more than this, this ethereal idea. It's, it, it, it is the financial backbone and it's the, it's really the dematerialized and democratized access to taking action in the world.

Absolutely. And taking the middlemen out of. Yes, everything. You know, when we get the sand.

Out of the gears.

Yeah. When we did our digital wallet work, you know, we're, we're saying, okay, let's try to figure out how much it, how many steps it takes for a merchant or for a consumer to pay a merchant. And that was nine steps, including the two of them. And that's, and, and you know, there are many other middlemen, but these were the most direct steps. And that is a 1, well a 2 to 4% tax on every purchase in the world. If you're using intermediaries, credit cards and so forth. So just think about that cutting, you know, that tax rate dramatically is, is going to increase access dramatically.

I want to hit on another fun subject. The, the nine year old inside of me is like the robots are coming. The robots are coming. You know, they are humanoid, humanoid robots. Tesla Bot, a friend of mine is one of the senior leaders at Tesla and just showing me what's going on there is amazing, right. Tesla Bot 2 Optimus, second generation. And then we've got, we've got amica, we've got figure and my count, 30 other humanoid robots in your development.

Yes. And we think this, first of all, if you look at the Wright's law and Apply it to industrial robots. What we see is based on the 50% cost decline for every cumulative doubling in the number of robots out there, we believe that during the next six to seven years, that space is going to grow the fastest, even faster than AI. Now, this is from a market valuation point of view. I'm talking about how it's valued in the marketplace. We think by more than 80% per year at a compound annual rate. Whereas we think all of disruptive innovation will be growing 40% from roughly $20 trillion now in the public and private market. And figure AI, we, we have taken a position in our venture fund there. So from 20 trillion to 220 trillion by the year 2030. So that's a 40% compound annual rate of growth. But, but generalized generalizable robotics is going to grow the fastest, we believe.

Incredible. And I, you know, my venture fund build capital, we took a position in figure as well. And of course, I'm a, I'm a huge Tesla fan.

Yes, yes, of course, we are too.

And you know, it's interesting if you look at the, you know, Elon's prediction on Optimus at 20,000, let's say he's going to be optimistic as he normally is, and that's good. Optimism helps you. You know, if, if innovators weren't optimistic, they would never start any of the ventures because you've got to be optimistic. But let's say that it's not 20,000 for an optimist, let's say, or a figure. Let's say it's 50,000. You know, if you're leasing it like you lease a car, you know, 500 bucks a month, you've got labor 24, seven sitting in your closet downstairs working for you. It's extraordinary.

It is, it is. We're pretty excited. And the way we value this, this particular space is it's roughly 50, 50 home and out of home, about $12 trillion each. So, yes, very exciting.

It's a lot. Now, the numbers are interesting for those who haven't sort of seen the conversation. You know, I've seen Vinod Khosa, who's a friend, you know, talk about, you know, as well as the team at figure that will hit, you know, billions, perhaps 10 billion by 2040. These are humanoid robots walking amongst us and millions by 2030. What do you think? What have you. What's your projections?

We think they are right and that we are hitting the tipping point now. And, you know, Elon does not do anything unless he. Well, nothing small. We for sure, for sure. But unless again, on a first principles basis he can justify it. And so the fact that he's, you know, throwing this weight behind it. And I hope he does get his 25% voting control at Tesla because, you know, he does to a shareholder. Yeah. I want him to see this through.

Yeah. You know, it's interesting. What I love is not only convergence in technologies, but convergence in, within Elon's companies. So we've got, we've got, you know, Tesla and SpaceX working together and the other thing. And I'm spending some good time at the Abundance Summit on brain computer interface scenario that we haven't spoken about much but you know, the ability to connect your neocortex to the cloud and be able to think and Google or take action. Increasing intelligence. Right. The number one greatest asset a company or nation has is, is the intelligence of its employees or its citizens. If you can up that to some degree, that would be extraordinary. So imagine Neuralink and Optimus together. Right. So I'm able to occupy an optimus robot someplace and drive it around. We've seen movies about this and it's not that far away.

We agree. We agree. Especially. Yeah. As we're combining what you just said with AGI, that how, how wrong, how wrong the market has been and how close to reality it might be.

You know, it, the point you just made, how wrong the market has been. I am, I'm flabbergasted. I don't know, I don't know, I don't know what the right term is. How, how confused I am about the, the public and the markets not recognizing how impactful these exponential technology driven companies are and how like you said earlier, right. Super exponentials are coming as these tsunami size convergences are about to transform every aspect of our lives. Every company, nation, states are going to be transformed.

Exactly. Accelerate the exponential growth rates. So yeah, I can tell you why, and I mentioned it briefly, but in the reasons, but in a word, people are scared and they are hugging benchmarks because they don't want to go through another tech and telecom bust. They don't want to go through another financial meltdown. They don't want. People are talking about, you know, another tech, another technology hype cycle here. So these are trigger words for them right now. So here's the irony, here's the irony. In the late 90s, I was there in the late 90s, the, this idea of the Internet captured the investor's imagination and they started valuing companies on a number of eyeballs potentially in 10 to 20 years.

I'll never forget when one travel company is worth more than all the airlines put together.

There you go. So too much capital chased, too few opportunities too soon, and it ended badly. The technologies weren't ready and they were too expensive. But what people do not understand is the seeds for everything happening now were sown during the, the 20 years that ended in the tech and telecom bubble. They've been germinating for 25, 30 years. We are ready for prime time. And Unlike the late 90s, they're, they're running away, they're running for the hills. What are the hills? They're benchmarks. Is ridiculous.

Old school. Old school. Safe havens for, for capital which are.

That will end badly too. That will end badly.

Yeah. You know, when I'm looking to predict the future, one of the things I think about and look at is what I call user interface moments. These are moments where complex technology gets a simplified user interface on top of it that then makes the public, gives the public access. So when, when, when, when Mosaic came along, right, When Marc Andreessen created Mosaic, he put a user interface on top of arpanet and all of a sudden it exploded, right? Steve Jobs does that with the phone, with the iPhone and the App Store and so forth. ChatGPT created a user interface moment on top of large language models and all of a sudden, massive, right? So we're going to be seeing these user interface moments coming on, making all of this very rich, very powerful, complex technology accessible to everybody. And in one sense, AI is the ultimate user interface, right?

Absolutely.

There will be a future. You know, I keep on, in my, in my blogs and my books, I talk about Jarvis because I just love Jarvis from Ironman. And I, you know, and it's like, you know, it will be my interface where I don't know how to 3D print or write 3D printing code. And I haven't coded in a number of years, but I know what I want. And if I can explain to my user interface exactly what I want, it has all the APIs and everything needed to go and do anything I desire.

And you know, natural language.

Yes, I do, I do.

There you go.

The challenge is going to be, of course, and we'll have to deal with this is how do we overcome the, the ill actors, you know, the malevolent actors in society who will want to use this for, for harm. And therein lies, you know, the black height, black hat, white hat. The use of AI to support humanity in, in doing good over evil.

Yeah. What I, you know, this Brings up the open source versus Closed. You know, just in, in the spaces with Elon he was saying open AI. Ha, you should call it closed AI, you know. But you know, we have, and it's in the again, the big ideas. We have a chart in there that shows the rate of performance improvement for closed source models and open source models. Now if you look at the level, GPT4 is just out there. It's, you know, way above the rest. But if you look at the slope of the line of performance improvements for open source, it is steeper, it's improving faster. And I'm wondering, you know, I often say with the bitcoin blockchain, I say, hey, this is a giant neighborhood watch. You've got a lot of people whose livelihoods and wealth are concentrated here and they don't want anything to go wrong. I feel like that should be the case in open source with open source AI as well. Now Elon in our spaces said he thought closed would win. And I'm thinking, well maybe, but could it be that we've seen Llama 2 and can't wait to see Llama 3 is good enough, Good enough. And I've talked to many enterprises who say we just need this to settle down because we have to hardwire this for compliance and security and all of that. So I just wonder, I just wonder.

I'm, I'm of the open source, you know, open will win. I really fundamentally believe that over and over again. You know, I'm going to have, you know, we have hugging face, we have Imad mustache is going to be with us from stability. And, and I think one of the things that hasn't been calculated into this is we're going to see nation statewide players partnering with open source players to digitize the data in their nations and create nation state language models that are respectful of their, of their culture and of their, you know, their history. And so we're going to see, we'll see, you know, 100 plus major players out there. I don't think it's going to all be Microsoft or Google.

I agree with you. I agree with you. I don't think people wanted to be Microsoft or Google.

Yeah, though, you know, Google's, Google's been an open source player almost every place else. I know.

That's what's so interesting, isn't it?

It is fascinating and I hope that they do take on the open source bandwagon. I will, I will not go into, into the conversation about Gemini right now because I don't want to get us into another half hour conversation. But listen, I want to, I want to close out and you've been so generous with time. This has been a fun conversation, Kathy.

Great. Yeah, I miss you too.

You know, let's talk one second. You have gotten into the venture business since you were on my stage at Abundance360 talk 1 second about your, your venture fund. A moment and how people can find out more about that.

So democratizing venture. It's an interval fund which is, it's regulated just like an ETF or a mutual fund and for $500 and we're available on both Titan, which is an Andreessen Horowitz funded app, and on SoFi now just launched there for $500 you can get access to SpaceX and Discord and Epic and Databricks which bought Mosaics, which we own. So a free, free gnome in the. In the multi omic space. So really transformational companies. We're excited about this effort and, and we're really grateful.

How big is the. How big is your venture fund?

So it started about a year ago and it's grassroots as I just described it is approaching. I think it's just about 50 million now. And we know that the wirehouses will look forward to putting it on their platforms when it hits crosses a threshold, say 70 to 100 million depending on the warehouse. So we're excited about that. Yeah.

I mean, because most people like, you know, for my venture funds, your minimum investment is a million. $2 million. You know.

The other thing, Peter, is we're not charging a carry. We are charging a 2.75% fee but no carry. And that is why we can offer it to retail. Go figure. This is an SEC rule. You if you don't earn a million, if you don't. I don't know what the thresholds are, but a million dollars and some other dollar for. For income, which most of our young, young investors don't. You can't have a shot at these moonshots. Of course.

This is critical for diversification to have some segment of your assets in venture and you make it possible for them. And congratulations on that.

Thank you.

Yeah. And where does one go to learn about the rest of the incredible ecosystem you've created?

Oh, thank you. So it's ark-invest.com. you can find Big Ideas 2024 on there. And then we also have all of our podcasts we do in the know, which is more economics and a little bit of innovation. That's every month. Bitcoin Brainstorm, Bitcoin monthly and we have something called. It's actually very interesting. It's called the Brainstorm, and it's Nick Ruse, who's an apm, with me, and Sam Koris, who's a director of research, basically summarizing our brainstorm from the previous Friday. It comes out the following Tuesday. So definitely stay tuned for that.

Nice, nice. And I would love to have you back on my stage in next year's Abundance Summit, which is a common theme on convergence. And let's talk about sort of, you know, where things are going. Someone interested in seeing these tsunamis. Where do they invest? What. What's your. What's your thinking? Anyway, I'm excited for that. Thank you for your time.

Likewise.

Thank you for your work.

Thank you so much, Peter. Thank you for your work. Yes, yes. We've gotta. We gotta bring. We gotta reverse this massive misallocation of capital and redirect it. Right.

And. And also the. If I could, the negativism out there. We are living through the most extraordinary time ever, right? We are.

Absolutely.

This technology is uplifting humanity. It's creating increasing abundance. And these are good things.

And it tends to. Sorry, Peter. It tends to gain traction during tough times. So when people are negative and not optimistic is when surreptitiously, deceptively, as you say, these technologies start to take hold. And then, please God, we're into the Roaring twenties again.

Yes. Amazing. Amazing.

Yeah.

Kathy, a pleasure. We're going to end our spaces here, if you'd stay with me on the video. Take care, everybody. Thank you for joining us and see you next time. Whether it's in Drive, Dropbox, Slack, or that folder called. Ugh, Dropbox Dash finds it fast. Smart search built for messy humans. Learn more@Dropbox.com dash.