Anthony Vinci - Founder at Vico.io

25 Jun 2026 · 34 min
33:36

In this Founder Wisdom Podcast episode, host Charles Cormier interviews Anthony Vinci, PhD, former intelligence officer, ex‑CTO of a U.S. intelligence agency, former investor at Bridgewater and Cerberus, and founder of Vico.ai (formerly Vaico.io). Vinci recounts his eclectic career— from academic research to intelligence work, to early startups (Finder, Leviathan Analytics), to a decade‑long stint bringing AI and computer‑vision into a government agency, and later venture investing— before launching Vico about 18 months ago. Vico is presented as an off‑the‑shelf forecasting platform that lets users (individuals or enterprises) generate probabilistic predictions about political, economic, and geopolitical events. The service offers a free beta with limited forecasts, a $100‑per‑month “token‑per‑forecast” tier for individuals, and a $100,000‑per‑year enterprise tier with API access and the ability to ingest proprietary data. Vinci explains how Vico’s forecasts have outperformed prediction markets and even internal expert judgments, citing a concrete example where Vico predicted the Iran strike with 60‑80% probability weeks before the event, whereas market‑based forecasts hovered around 50%. The platform aggregates roughly 150,000 open‑source data streams, can incorporate private data silos, and provides reasoning behind each probability. The conversation shifts to AI policy: Vinci reflects on his experience with Project Maven, the controversy over AI use in the Department of Defense, and the current tension between the DoD and Anthropic over ethical AI deployment. He stresses the need for dialogue and acknowledges the growing pains of integrating powerful AI into national security. Vinci also shares his geopolitical outlook: Vico’s model remains bearish on a lasting peace between the U.S. and Iran (predicting a low chance of Strait of Hormuz reopening) and forecasts sub‑50% probability of a durable peace in Ukraine over the next year. He hints at future work extending forecasts into technology domains, including super‑intelligence take‑off scenarios. The interview touches on his 2025 book, The Fourth Intelligence Revolution, which argues that intelligence is expanding into economic, scientific, and tech domains; AI will permeate all intelligence work; and state‑level surveillance is now targeting the general populace, urging citizens to adopt an intelligence‑officer mindset for personal resilience. Finally, Vinci discusses the U.S.–China AI competition, noting China’s focus on open‑source, low‑cost models to gain market share, while the U.S. leads in frontier proprietary models, and he warns about the Chinese Communist Party’s surveillance export ambitions.

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