Founder's Dilemma: Wrong Arbitrages and Rising Token Costs #shorts

18 Jun 2026 · 0 min

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In this short commentary, the speaker argues that many startup founders are pursuing the wrong arbitrage opportunities by assuming that token costs will continue to decline. He points out that current token prices are often subsidized and may actually rise, meaning business models that rely on decreasing token costs could become unviable if the cost curve reverses.

I think it's a very confusing time to be a founder. I think there are a lot of people who are chasing various— every business to me is an arbitrage, but I think they're chasing some of the wrong arbitrages. Their presumption is that token costs are going down. I don't know if that's true. I think a lot of token costs we see today are subsidized, and I think they're going up. And so there are things they want to do today where they think they can ride this depreciation token cost curve. And if token costs actually go up, they don't have a business.