Charles Hudson argues that billion-dollar exits no longer move the needle for large venture funds. Only $30 to 40 billion outcomes matter, and since not every firm can own meaningful stakes in those rare deals, most exits are too small to actually change returns.
Chapters
The only way to do that, I believe, is through really large outcomes. Two things have to be true. There have to be 30 to 40 billion dollars outcomes, and your specific venture firm needs to be in those. And my hunch is that it's zero sum. Since there's only 100% to buy. It is impossible that every large venture firm can own 20% of every meaningful exit. Interesting thing will be of those really large firms, who does the best job of capturing meaningful ownership in the companies that ultimately matter? And I think if you're a really big venture fund, that's the only game that matters to you, because it's the only that moves. And as the post does, the median exit doesn't do anything for a big venture fund. It simply isn't big enough. Even if they own 200% of that company, it wouldn't matter.