Charles Hudson cites Sequoia research showing major tech trends surface 5-6 years before peaking. He argues the next big thing after AI has already started emerging quietly among insiders, but venture capitalists struggle to convince investors to back unfashionable categories when AI is what everyone wants to fund.
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LinkedIn post from Konstantin Buehler over at Sequoia. Top companies are almost never born from the hype of their founding year. New trends also appear to announce themselves 5 to 6 years before they peak.
Whatever is coming after AI, which by the way, I don't think is robotics, whatever it is, started happening a couple years ago and a handful of people probably know it and the rest of us don't yet. But it's really hard to go to LPs and like, hey, I'm spending a bunch of my time in a category that no one else is talking about, that no one else thinks is valuable. And I just think it's so much easier to say, I'm working on the thing that everybody else is working on. To go to a cocktail party today and talk about your inference or harness or model companies is a lot easier than to go talk about some consumer company that you're investing in that nobody cares about.