Annie Duke argues we judge decisions by outcomes when we should judge them by the thinking behind them. Rewarding lucky wins and punishing unlucky losses makes us emotional and irrational. Instead, treat decisions like poker bets: estimate odds, focus on what you control, and ask if you made the best call with what you knew then, not whether you were right.
This book will change how you make decisions. It's called Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, a champion poker player and cognitive psychologist. Here's her core idea: stop judging decisions by their outcomes. A terrible result doesn't always mean a crappy decision, and an excellent result doesn't always mean a smart decision. This is a cognitive bias that Annie calls resulting, and it's dangerous. It rewards bad decisions that got lucky and punishes smart ones that ran into bad fortune. Over time, it trains you to react emotionally, not logically. Annie's fix? Think like a poker player. Treat bets as beliefs, estimate probabilities, know what you can control, and separate luck from skill. So next time, don't ask, was I right? Ask, did I make the best decision with the info I had at the time? That's how pros think, and that's how you can start making smarter moves.
