Historical data often fails to predict the future. The speaker argues for scenario-based forecasting instead and emphasizes that being transparent about what you can't predict builds stakeholder trust.
Chapters
I think first and foremost is communication with your stakeholders and knowing your limitations. Forecast is good if your past reflects the future. And so I think telling your stakeholders, look, the historical cannot represent the future. We need to go different approach, like let's do scenarios. And I think be transparent with your stakeholders where you know that you cannot create forecast that is accurate because of the limitation of your data is important. It's Science, and science has limitation like every field of science, right? Limitation with transparency, I think it's the first and foremost to build this trust in your forecast.