In this market briefing, trader Dave Barnhart provides a rapid‑fire analysis of two key equities ahead of the U.S. non‑farm payroll (NFP) release. He first examines Lululemon (LULU), noting the massive institutional trades that occurred around $118‑$122 in the month prior, the stock’s failure to close above those high‑volume prints, and the resulting $21 drop to $99. Using his proprietary pivot, CAM (cumulative area market) and exponential moving average framework, Barnhart maps out bullish zones above $102 and bearish zones below $98, highlighting specific price targets (e.g., $102.50, $104, $105, $106.62, $107.50, $110, $111.33) and risk management advice. He then shifts to the SPY ETF, reviewing late‑reported dark‑pool prints from the past month, including a $3.5 billion trade at 772 and other multi‑million‑share prints. Barnhart outlines a bullish scenario above $774 with incremental targets up to $784.71, and a bearish scenario below $771 with support levels down to $766. He ties the analysis to the upcoming NFP data, suggesting volatility could push the index through these levels. The video concludes with a standard call‑to‑action, a Labor Day remark, and a sponsorship plug for MobyTick’s partnership with TrendSpider.
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Good morning, traders. It's Friday, September 4th at 4:34 AM. All right, 2 stocks for you today. We've got Lululemon killed on earnings, and we've got the SPY because there's non-farm payroll today, and so we're expecting some volatility. So we'll see where the institutions are positioned in the index. So let's go ahead and look at Lulu. First largest trades in the last month. Biggest one here, $570K here at 120, and then the other one, $428K at 118. So between 118 and 122, yeah, a couple billion dollars worth. So you can see here, August 12th, you, uh, a large print here, and then we've just been ranging in between these prints, right? So it's really difficult to tell what their intention was here, except if you drew a box around that. Hindsight's 20/20. Sometimes, sometimes you can tell, other times You can't, but massive volume didn't close above any of these prints here. The this this high, and then just tanked. We're down $21 right now. The ATR is $4.46, so we're down. What is it? Three and a half times this ATR, so we're down to $99. Look at that giant one. So let's trade it intraday and see what's going on. We're below all my pivots and cams, so it's just free space and major dollar levels. We're going to be bullish above 102. Let's get above this S5. This is resistance right here, so you want this to be support. 102.50, 104, 105, 106.62 is S4. 107.50, 110, 111.33 is S3. It's also my 200 exponential moving average right there. On the downside, we're going to be bearish below 98. Let's get below here if you want to get in. If it's rolling over with increasing volume and breaks below here, then Yeah, you can get in probably around 99. I picked 98. It's early. 97, 95, 92.50, and 90. I did mention the HR was, was, uh, about 446. So I'm just going by the major dollar levels, half dollar levels, and just, yeah, be careful, be careful with that and, uh, scale out as needed. All right, let's move over to the SPY. All right, SPY. I'm switching this over to late prints, these ones that are reported 24 hours late on purpose. And so last night we got 3 million shares here, 765.04, and we're above all of those. So these are the largest ones in the last month. The biggest one here was this 5 million at 772. So that's about a $3.5 billion trade. We're just above that, 773.75. So you can see going back here, the this consolidation range, and right around the 773 level, that's the high concentration. This day on August 14th, we had 2.1 million, which threw it down the stairs a little bit through all of these prints. But then we got new print here at the bottom around 762, 2.8 million. So we've been stuck in this range. This is interesting here, seeing this reversal right on this moving average here, increasing volume and then kicking off on low volume And now we're up. So what we need to do is plan for bullish above a specific level, bearish below. If we close strong and get above this, then we're above all the prints in the last month, which would be interesting. So let's go ahead and map this out on the intraday. We're going to be bullish above 774. Let's get above this right here. Target 774.38 is a cam. 774.98, 775.65, 776.69, 777. 2.1 million. We had mentioned that one. Then we've got 778.13, 779.80 is a CAM, and then I put 784.71, which is R3. That's usually overbought on that. But anyway, if you see the 4 and the 8 exponential moving average running together— 4 is the red one, 8 is the blue— they're running together. And it's really strong, and you're blowing through these things. There's no reason to, um, no reason to get out this one. Anyway, we're bumping our head on resistance here. We're going to be bearish below 771. Look at all of this mess down here: 1.9 million, 1.9. We pointed out this 3.5 billion share print. There's the post-market support, and we've got all of these prints. So this is this area here is a lot of strength on the support side because you can see where the institutions. Are actually sitting, and they do trade off these pivots and cams. And I've got a little 50 simple moving average stuck in there, so we're going to be bearish below 771. Let's get right to about here. Target 769.94 is this print. Now we're getting into my 200 exponential, 200 simple. This might be the end of the road. We'll see if it's a cushion. If the NFP doesn't work out very well for the For the market, you'll just see that it'll blow through some of these and then probably hit one of the S1, S2, S3, something like that. So as yeah, 769.55, 769.07 is S1, and then 768.61. You've got this 6.6 million right here as well. 766.54. Is a cam. 765.04 is 3 million. So I've got this right here as well. And then we've got all of these trapped in here as well. 3, 5, 8, about 10 million here around 767.19. All right, there you have it. Those are your trade setups for today. So please like, share, subscribe, do all of that great stuff. Leave some comments in the comment section below, and we'll see you Tuesday. So have a great long weekend. Labor Day, anybody with kids Get your foot in the small of their back and kick them off to school, and we'll see you next week. Take care. MobyTick has partnered with TrendSpider to bring real-time institutional trades to your charts. Click the link in the description below for more details.
