NVDA Lied To Investors AGAIN!

Welcome to this week's earnings watch. A lot of interesting news this week. You know, is the AI party still going or is it not? Glad to be with you guys. Please let us know in the chat if you have any requests for tickers to cover. Let us know if you're a first-time attendee. We like to do a special shout out to all of those guys. Welcome for your first time, and let's just jump into it here. Let me share my screen. I think the biggest news easily, right, has got to be, you know, hey, what happened with Nvidia, the biggest market cap company, I think, in the world? What happened? I'll tell you what happened. They beat, right? And they lied. They lied about earnings and they really cooked the books, so to speak, by overloading accounts receivable, bloating accounts receivable, and overstating profits. Cash flows weren't there. The market saw through it. Took a little while, but it happened. So made for an exciting day yesterday, really, right? I mean, the earnings came out and everyone's like, oh my gosh, yeah, I think it's still on. This is so great, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And we actually had a strong miss yesterday before the new filing came in. We got a new filing in. So, this is for next quarter. So, the data is already in. But there was a strong miss or miss. I don't remember for sure. So, the interesting thing is this is why these signals are rather so good. Sure, it was a beat, but we know that the real numbers were a miss. And so, what our system, I think, was telling us is that they were overstating stuff to a degree that I think it just couldn't hold up. And now as we get the K and the Q in, we're seeing numbers that probably a little bit more realistic. But I think you got to be careful of the balance sheet in general. Look, what you're seeing with the valuation here with Nvidia, pretty good company, bad stock, right? It's just super expensive. So any chink in the armor for this report, you're going to see what you saw. Which was a pretty bad number for those guys. And look, what were they down? So the month, it's pretty flat. So despite a blowout quarter, they are not looking so good as a stock. Great 6 months, great year to date, but down 3%, which compared to S&P 500, about the same as the market. Gone up and come down. Not quite like the S&P, but yeah, this is what I just call good company, bad stock. All right, how about Walmart? Walmart had a pretty good showing this week, didn't it? Yeah, up overall for the week. Everything's been down. They did a great job. Top estimates, raised full-year forecast. This business is remarkably resilient. I mean, look, it's one of the greatest companies ever. Don't get me wrong, right? Good company, as I've said before, bad stock. Look, we love this as a long idea. It was awesome. I remember when it got cheap, I was like, here we go. We've been waiting. We got it. Long idea focus list did great, got expensive, and we exited. So yeah, this was still a great company. You know, return on capital isn't like a tech company, but the capital base and the economic earnings here are absolutely huge. So we again think it's a great business, not necessarily great stock. Home Depot, I think results were a little more mixed. Wow, it's up a bunch today, but it's been hurt, right? They came in and they missed their numbers and they lowered some guidance. So, you know, sort of the bloom is a bit off the rose on Home Depot. I mean, they were acting like, oh, tariffs aren't going to hurt us and we're going to be fine. Super operations. Yeah, I mean, you can walk on water as long as, you know, it's only a couple inches deep. But I think when we got deeper into what's really going on with the economy, What was revealed is that this is not quite as strong as people thought. And again, good company, not crazy expensive like some of these others. It's come down some, but still, folks, like, as the point we made during our last training, only 3% of all stocks are the ones that are going to drive performance, right? So, look, I don't think Home Depot is one of them. These expensive stocks, they're not going to be the ones that are going to make you a lot of money in the long term. They're not going to be the ones that make you a lot of money in the long term. Period. Paragraph. Let me give you a link to the replay of this training so you guys can have that. Check it out. It's all about the AI. We spend a lot of time talking about our AI, how you can get access, how it works. We are giving out a special access opportunity for those folks who are signing up. And if you are a Pro customer, you're going to be grandfathered in to have at least 1 or 2 free months of access to Finsights, the one and only real AI that works. All right, Lowe's, big acquisition. Look, same profiles, Home Depot. I mean, look, Home Depot, Lowe's, like what's the difference? Maybe Home Depot's a slightly better company. Lowe's had better reports. So maybe that advantage that Home Depot has had operationally over Lowe's for a while is dissipating. Maybe it was a mirage because, you know, comparing Home Depot and Lowe's. This week, big difference. Tale of two stories. And you know, kind of done a little bit better throughout this year as well, or the last six months. Year to date, pretty much identical until here just now. Look, things are the same until they're not, right? Everyone thinks that hey, maybe Lowe's is as good a company as Home Depot until you realize well, maybe it's not. And it takes tough times like this to reveal those distinctions. That's what happens, right? That's what that's what tough times are for. You find out who can handle the foxhole, right? It's easy to hang out in the foxhole. It's like a camping trip till the bombs start falling. And then you see how people can really react. So it's adversity. Adversity matters. Adversity is wonderful. Challenge is wonderful. It's what builds strength. It's what builds faith. It's what builds endurance. It's what builds character. And it's what reveals who's strong and who's not. Looks like for me, Lowe's is a better business, at least in this environment. Though again, it's not going to be one of those 3% stocks. And that's why we need AI these days, folks. Nobody can go through all the filings. Nobody can do the work on their own, right? There's maybe one sort of magic person, Warren Buffett, and he was able to read filings, right? They said over his life, maybe he did 100,000 filings. You know how many have we done in new constructs? 500,000. 200,000 meticulously marked up, 215,200, I don't know. So over 200,000, like, specifically focused marked up. The AI has done more than double that on its own, right? Where we've tested and tweaked and let it go back and forth, like, the number of, like, reps that the AI gets, that's kind of the benefit of having the system. We can now say, hey, look, this has been expertly marked up and collated and analyzed by human expert. Now AI. Go match that. We're not going to tell you the answers. See how well you can do. Then we go grade it. Oh, you missed this, this, and this. Go back, try again. Go back, try again. Then it finally learns it, right? We can do that an infinite number of times. The key is to have that expertly marked up data and ontology to begin with. The data checks to verify that everything is right, the models to verify that everything is right and to produce results, and a process to iterate on that. But most importantly, the expertise to plant the machine with what is the right answer. And when we say what's the right answer, well, I think we can say that we are pretty good at giving people the right answer when it comes to picking stocks. When you look at the performance of our live-traded portfolios, here's the Core Earnings Leader Index. You want to look how it's done over the last 6 months? Yeah. All right. It's up way more than the S&P, 16.5% to 11.88%. Year to date, even more. 1 year, about the same. Point is, we're beating the heck out of it. 5 years, even more, 116% to 80%. Not bad. 10 years, 346% to 228%. Good research matters. Good data matters, folks. And that's what drives our AI. That kind of insight— name another research firm, name anything that's got data this good. That's why people sign up for new constructs. That's why this special offer that I dropped into the chat here, that's why it's so good. You're going to get access to the best AI technology data in the world on US stocks. How much is that worth? You can't put a number on that. We price it at a level that says we trust you to take a look and be a customer long term, but we're not going to force you to trust us too much by spending a whole bunch of money and paying full price and having to see if it works first. We're going to give it to you at a deal so you can see if it works first. That's why we're doing these special offers. Because we're so confident. And we understand, look, it's a tough place. There's all kinds of people out there in the marketplace, in the newsletter business. You ever heard of MarketWise, Agora, Porter Company? All these guys are selling a bunch of stuff all the time. Is it real? Maybe some of it. I don't know. Is new construction real? Yes. Real. Grounded back to the real fundamentals. Speaking of which, let's talk Palo Alto Networks. Just did a big acquisition. Another good company, bad stock, right? Good earnings. We like that. And this is all part of your pro membership, by the way. This is what I'm showing folks today. But look, this share's going up. Not good, right? Selling shares into an expensive stock price. Look at economic earnings. Counting earnings, head fake, came back, right? That's what we're doing when we look at earnings distortion. Same is true there, right? Core earnings. That's the truth, folks. That's why these stock picking strategies based on core earnings work. Better data wins. Everybody's got models these days. Shoot, Google came out with the, with the, like, the best AI model that we've, that anybody's seen in a long time. Everyone thought, oh, they were lost. No, Gemini 3, bam, blown away. But guess what's even more important than the model? Why do you think Google chose us to build an AI? They give people the ability to build their own AIs. They're the rails. They don't want to be the train. But with us, they created a train. They created an AI. Why? To demonstrate the art of the possible. When you combine true deep subject matter expertise with machines, you get amazing stuff. Never been done before. That's why it was the art of the possible. Now it's the art of the actual, right? Here it is. What are the best stocks in the Healthcare sector. Bam! We'll come back in just a second. Why don't we knock out another stock in a second? What it thinks on that. I don't like watching it think. It only takes a few seconds, but I'm not that patient. Target. How did Target do this week? No data. That's funny, right? FinSights can give us some data. Best stocks in the healthcare sector. All right, let's see. What's the methodology behind the overall rating? Give me that answer. How many data on Target? Well, planning to invest, quarterly profit slides, challenging holiday season, may have hit rock bottom. These are tough times. What are we saying about Target? Yeah, looking cheap, not so good. Attractive. We've liked this business for a while. We think it's sort of like a fancy Walmart in more convenient locations, has a lot of opportunity. They got off track kind of like Disney, you know, with some of this popular cultural stuff. And they gotta, they gotta, they gotta make something happen here. But yeah, the stock, we're gonna have a performance here. You can see I down a lot lately, last 3 months, and not looking good. Not looking good and not looking super attractive. Has gotten cheaper, but this would be closer to the 3%. Very attractive is where you get into the 3% of stocks that matter. This is for the— depends on whether company for a fund, ETFs and mutual funds. All right, who else we got here on our list? Baidu, neutral rated but cheap. Biggest quarterly revenue drop amid weak ad business. So even this business, which everyone loved for so long, kind of coming to a halt here. Not a great company, looking cheap, maybe cheap for a reason. Not good. So not looking good here recently either. Yeah, clearly not part of the 3%, not an elite stock, folks. If you want to be a winner in the stock market Beat the market, and who knows what percentage of investors, professional investors out there, what percentage of them actually beat the market? Anybody know in any given year? We were looking this up recently after fees, which means they earn enough. Their performance is good enough to justify how much you pay them. It's like one quarter in any given year. If you want to go for over five years, it's like less than a percent. People getting paid to rip you off. It's the way I look at it. Zoom, good company, bad stock, right? How do these guys do? Yeah, down a lot. You know, look, I don't know about you guys, but it feels like to me the markets these days are a little bit more discerning. It doesn't feel like everything's just going up. Sort of surprised. Maybe this is why they're dropping the Epstein files, right? It's like, oh, the market's gonna go down. There's worse things out there. Than Epstein files. I don't know. It's a nutty time, but I don't think the market is just setting everything up right. For a long time, bad news was good news. Good news was good news. But this is an expensive stock. And see, it doesn't give us any news on how they reported, but clearly not a good week. Doesn't look like it's gone so well. All right, I've got a little bit of time for a couple of requests. Anybody got a request out there for something they want me to look up? Which of the healthcare stocks above are most likely, likely to beat their earnings estimates next quarter? That's a pretty cool question. All right, we got 2 requests while this guy's thinking on this. We'll give it a second. There you go. That's not bad. So I'm going to go through, I'm going to give you the best stocks in the healthcare sector. I'm going to tell you which ones are most likely to beat or miss. There it is. That's the earnings distortion, Street earnings distortion capture. So these, when it's negative, that's good. That means earnings are understated. Their core earnings are better than what the market thinks. And then you can see these are the guys that are likely to miss. Pretty cool, right? Take this list. And then overlay the earnings projections, the earnings distortion. Pretty awesome. Pretty awesome. That's that is elite level stock research and analysis. Elite. All right, let's do a couple more stocks here. What do we got? We're going to do two for the people that ran fastest. Sorry, typo. CXW. CoreCivic. Unattractive. Bad company. Mediocre stock. Let's see here. Return on— let's see what the trends are like. The stock's headed down. So you've seen a lot of compression in valuation. You know, I don't really like this. Accounting earnings doing that. Economic earnings really going in the opposite direction. I do like seeing shares going down. Cost of capital going up a lot because of the stock price, I guess, while return on capital goes down. But it's coming back some. No pet margins. Free cash flow been pretty solid, but dropped off a good bit here lately. My guess is they did an acquisition, got cocky. All right, last one. KGC, Ross Gold Corp. Neutral. So again, not elite, right? We want stuff in the best 3%. That's a very attractive rating. And this doesn't get it neutral. I mean, neutral, pretty far from, right? So this is sort of like in the middle ground territory. Don't touch it. Don't play with it. Ken Ross. Yeah, neutral. All right, everybody. Well, that's all we got for today. I appreciate you being with us. Sorry for the technical difficulties on the front end. I hope you have a great weekend and a great holiday season. Thank you.