The Golden Metric Advantage - February 2025 Training

In this 90‑minute YouTube training, New Constructs founder David Trainer presents his firm’s proprietary “golden metric” – a condition where a company’s economic earnings (NOPAT − WACC × invested capital) exceed its GAAP earnings – as a powerful signal for uncovering undervalued stocks that Wall Street overlooks. Trainer explains why GAAP and other adjusted earnings are misleading, outlines the 30 accounting loopholes his system corrects, and shows how the metric has driven historic outperformance in stocks such as Domino’s, AutoZone, and several small‑cap winners. He describes New Constructs’ AI‑driven RoboAnalyst rating system (five‑metric risk‑reward framework) and its patented, footnote‑level data extraction process, emphasizing transparency and auditability for institutional subscribers. Trainer repeatedly cites external validation from Harvard Business School, MIT Sloan, Ernst & Young, and the Journal of Financial Economics, as well as top rankings on SumZero, to argue that New Constructs outperforms both buy‑side and sell‑side research. He critiques Wall Street’s conflicted buy/hold ratings, warns of market overvaluation and “false narratives” (NFTs, meme stocks, SPACs), and positions his firm as a source of “dark‑corner” investment ideas for a forthcoming “golden era” of stock picking. The session ends with a call to action for viewers to access the latest top recommendation and subscribe to New Constructs’ data‑rich platform.
Chapters
Thanks everybody for joining today. I'm very excited to be talking to you about the Golden Metric Advantage, our secret weapon to find undervalued stocks missed by Wall Street. Discover how New Constructs backtested system identifies stocks with massive upside potential. We're going to give you insight into information and data you can't get anyplace else. That's what we do at New Constructs. We're not into helping you chase the obvious stocks, chase the crowded stocks. We are shining lights into the dark corners of the market to give you insight you can't get anyplace else. Let's jump in here. I want to do disclosures and disclaimers. Look, past performance is not indicative of future performance. It shouldn't be taken that way. Also, we are not advisors. We're not providing any investment advice. We are a research firm. We are a research firm unearthing insights you can't get anywhere else. This is to help you make more informed decisions. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not pretend to be. All right. As I mentioned at the top, I want to hear from you in the chat. What city are you in? What type of investor are you? I'm always interested in, you know, are you more of an individual or hedge fund manager? If you stay to the end, I'm going to reveal the golden metric that we use to find brand new stocks to beat the market. We don't even have a model portfolio for these. This is an insight that we figured out that supercharges our rating system. I'm also going to talk about how accounting loopholes distort a company's true earnings potential. Look, I mean, companies and Wall Street have been playing with the numbers forever. We understand how to fix that better than anybody in the world. I'm going to show you how you can grab my latest top stock recommendation based on our latest discoveries. And our proprietary data. So those of you who don't know me, I'm David Trainer. I'm the founder of New Constructs, and I'm the author of Modern Tools for Valuation. I've spent 25 years in machine learning, finance, AI, accounting, you name it. We built the best system in the world for fundamental analysis, hands down. If you're one of our new members, you might be wondering why you should use our research and stock recommendations. What makes New Constructs special? First of all, our stock picking, our stock picking has beaten 16,000 buy-side professionals to claim the number one ranking in multiple spots from SumZero, a buy-side only competition. Buy-side only is really important. Professional investors probably know this, but if you're not a pro, you know, the buy-side folks are the hedge fund side of Wall Street. The sell-side are the Wall Street analysts. Those folks are not known for stock picking, believe it or not. Their stock picking is pretty terrible. Uh, they don't do it for a living. They're not paid to pick stocks. They're paid to sell stock. On the buy side, people— on the, on the buy side, people, on the other hand, those folks are paid to pick stocks. And those— that's, that's the higher level competition. Those— that's who we beat. We beat the buy side. Our work has been also studied and vetted by prestigious institutions such as The MIT Sloan School of Business, the Harvard Business School, Ernst Young, and the Journal of Financial Economics. I say this all the time. If you know of another research firm that has one paper written that proves that their research is superior, please put it in the chat, send me an email, whatever. We have 3, 3 separate papers written by some of the most prestigious And published by some of the most prestigious firms in the world. That's part of why you can trust us. The other reason is because all of our research is transparent. But you don't have to take my word for it. Some of the most prestigious institutions in the world vetted and validated our research. We've also been amongst the very first to recommend today many of today's most valuable stocks, including Microsoft at $42, Apple at $1,950, Eli Lilly at $36 a share, up 2,000%. And even Nvidia at $0.57 a share. We were talking about Nvidia before anybody else was. That's how you make the big bucks, my friends. It's not chasing the stuff that everyone chases. It's talking about stocks that nobody even is thinking about at this point. That's what we're going to do later today. We've also been able to recommend many other lesser-known hidden gem winners such as Williams-Sonoma up 494% over 8 years, 494% over 8 years versus the S&P at 162%. Jabil, 266% gain over 4 years versus the S&P at just 55%. Sprouts Farmers Market, 428% versus the S&P at just 59%. And today I'm going to show you how to get my latest number 1 stock recommendation, which could rival the performance of any of our previous recommendations. And remember, You got to go to places where other people aren't looking if you really want to make the big bucks. Crowded trades only work for a while, and when they unwind, you could be in big trouble. Note that this new recommendation is not found in any of our current model portfolios. It's a— it's a— this recommendation is based on a combination of 2 factors: a golden metric we've been studying, backtesting, and have recently validated, and the proven superior stock rating system in New Constructs. This recommendation should not be taken lightly because our track record speaks for itself. I've been recently ranked the number one stock picker on SumZero out of 16,000+ buy-side, buy-side stock pickers. I hold the number one spot in industrials, and as much as I'd like to give myself credit for these number one ratings, it's really all based on the proprietary Rebel Analyst technology and stock rating system. And in this training, I'll be showing you how to grab my number one new recommendation today. Note, the last four years has made the U.S. market the most expensive it's ever been. In fact, the S&P 500 hit the highest level in history based on several indicators. This market really hasn't ever been this expensive. The combined valuation metrics even exceeded. The dot-com bubble and the 1920s before the Great Depression. And the market is highly concentrated. People are chasing the same stocks. And the over— this overvalued market makes good stocks harder to find, period. It's harder to find good stocks. I think that's part of why Wall Street just keeps cheering people to buy the same stuff over and over. They don't have to rewrite any reports. It's easy work, right? I don't have to do any work. I just say, keep, you know, hey, what I said before, same thing, just pile it in there. But even in this kind of market, we do believe that there are still great investments out there right now. In fact, we believe we're entering into what I'd call a golden era of stock picking. With the new shifts in our leadership and the new changes in federal spending, I think the market's going to start getting smarter, not dumber, and capital will be allocated to where it deserves to go most. We've seen false narratives crushing our country, dividing our country. Those false narratives don't just exist in politics and health and— but in our markets. And I think the false narratives in our markets are the worst. I mean, think about it. They were trying to sell you NFTs not too long ago, SPACs not too long ago. They're still trying to sell you meme coins, meme stocks. These narratives are designed to make certain people rich and you poor. These false narratives are purposely designed to cause the markets to be inefficient, to misallocate capital to individuals who want to make more money. I would submit that the false narratives in the capital markets are even more aggressive and more common and more insidious because they're get-rich-quick schemes. So false narratives abound. You need someone to help you unwind those false narratives, and I believe that that's going to start happening more and more. The market's going to be focused more on real companies, not social causes or pie-in-the-sky companies. Real companies. And investors will be rewarded if they get into the right places ahead of the crowd. We've uncovered a set of stocks we believe are primed to receive this capital and thrive in the near future, especially as we enter into the new golden era. And I'm expected— I'm excited to share how you can get access to them, as these are the very companies that will fuel America's future growth, especially after uncovering and now validating a discovery here at New Constructs. Our team is constantly analyzing our proprietary and proven superior data to find new, better ways to pick stocks. That's what we do. That's what you do with a proprietary data set. That's what Harvard Business School and MIT Sloan and Ernst Young did also. And just a few months ago, after completing backtests on stocks, on these stocks, the results we found astounded us. Since then, we went on to make new recommendations with this new discovery, and the results from several of the picks confirmed our theories true. Large-cap financial company. This is part of the Super Stock Bundle Number 1 we delivered back in September of 2024, since we recommended that, up 76%. A small-cap financials company. Super Stock number 9, it's up over 80%. So when we say that this theory has been validated, we're talking about stock price performance. And it all has to do with a golden metric that finds stocks almost no one else knows about. So that we can identify undervalued stars in the stock market today. Look, there are 2 kinds of research. There's really almost 2 kinds of investing, 2 kinds of everything. There's the stuff that everyone knows about and the media talks about and you see on Instagram and blah, blah, blah. And there's the stuff that only the great folks or the great investors know about and have and gives them an edge to outperform. There's the easy stuff that everyone else has. And there's the hard stuff, the unique stuff. And today we're going to give you an edge that almost no one else has ever had. It's based on a recent discovery and indicates an excellent long-term future with potential triple-digit gains. Stocks such as Domino's had this metric, and it went on to go up 2,000%. Accenture, 1,700% gain. when this metric came into play. AutoZone, 700% gain when this metric came into play. This performance led us to do more research into the golden metric that these hidden gem stocks have in common. So what is this gold metric I've been hinting at? It's when economic earnings is greater than GAAP earnings. How do we— how do we calculate economic earnings? Note that this is a proprietary an adjusted metric that you can't get anywhere else. The formula is simple: NOPAT minus WACC times invested capital. It's real simple. You can also look at it as return on capital minus cost of capital times invested capital. Now, why are economics earnings better? Well, they're mainly better because we do them the right way. But I want you to know economic earnings is not a new concept. Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Ben Graham, Adam Smith, All these folks have talked about economic earnings as the right way to pick stocks since the beginning of time. And they matter more because they're based on the complete set of financials. All the other metrics you see, especially GAAP earnings, God help us, adjusted earnings or non-GAAP earnings, they are usually— those are always looking at an increasingly smaller portion of the financial picture. And I would go in this order. GAAP earnings are the ones I mentioned. GAAP earnings are better than pro forma earnings, adjusted earnings, etc. All those metrics are doing is, is forcing you to make investment decisions based on a smaller and smaller set of data. Economic earnings, the way New Constructs does it with the footnotes, takes into account everything related to the financial performance of the business. And there's no reason your investment decision should ever be based on anything but everything. Right? Do you want to make a purposely myopic decision? Do you want to make a purposely uninformed decision by making investments based on incomplete data sets? Heck no. Economic earnings are also standard for all companies. It's apples to apples, so that makes it better. And then it's a more accurate representation of the true underlying cash flows of the business, also very important. And it's better for finding hidden gems in the stock market. I mean, it's just a more A more efficient way of doing things. So how do we calculate economic earnings? Let's give you a couple, a couple of examples. Groupon back in 2015, the math was NOPAT of negative $11 minus 8.9% times $130. That's equal to negative $22 of economic earnings. At that point in time, their GAAP earnings were $21 a share. By the way, this was pulled— this was, this is a danger zone stock. It got crushed, right? So this, this metric is really important on both sides of the coin. When GAAP earnings meaningfully overstate economic earnings, watch out. Another example, Bumble, back in 2021. Their economic earnings were negative $383 million. The GAAP earnings were positive $318 million. Again, another stock that got crushed. The bottom line, if a company is not generating positive economic earnings, It is not creating shareholder value and could go to zero. See, the economic earnings are important for equity investors because it takes into account how much, how much actual cash flow or earnings are available to you, Mr. Equity Investor. GAAP earnings doesn't do that. Nothing does that. Nothing does that like economic earnings. That's why it's an important number. So let's show you how this has worked in the past and have a look at the stocks we mentioned before to see the hidden metric in place. Domino's Pizza. So we found back in March of 2015, we went through the 10-K, we saw that economic earnings were greater than GAAP earnings. Since then, stock's up 2,083% while the S&P is just up 370%. AutoZone, similar. We went through the 10-K, found out that economic earnings are greater than GAAP earnings. Stock was up 732% versus the S&P at 293%. And I want to point out here, proprietary adjusted— we are going through the footnotes and we are identifying differences in economic earnings and accounting earnings by finding things other people don't see in the fine print in these 200-plus page filings. Now, it's important to realize how rare this metric is. More on that later. And how large the true difference between economic earnings and the reported GAAP earnings can be. Over the last 25 years, I found more than 30 GAAP loopholes that can distort a company's earnings. I've even published white papers on each one of these. I'm transparent. We are transparent about the kind of work we do. We will tell you every adjustment we're making, and if you're a professional or institutional subscriber, you can audit every single one of those adjustments. Sometimes that's too much data for a lot of folks, but if you ever want to be able to audit or check what we're doing, we will show you. Name another firm that does the same thing. You won't find it. You won't find it. There's a lot of adjustments we're making. It's a lot of work. That's why we have technology. Now, it's important to know that sometimes these distortions can occur by chance, but often, more times than not, They are deliberate. I've been doing this work for almost 30 years. And within the first couple of years, it was clear to me that companies obfuscate performance because it's too easy to do it right. And they choose not to. The flexibility in GAAP rules keeps— creates loopholes that companies can exploit to manipulate their reported earnings. It's the bottom line. It's there and they do it. In other words, the numbers can be manipulated to make earnings and profitability appear more impressive than they truly are. And that's the tough truth of today's stock market. You cannot trust GAAP earnings or any earnings from companies or Wall Street. Can't do it. Thankfully, over the past 20 years, we've trained our system to identify and close these loopholes. Again, I've seen this going on for a long time. And it's happening at such an enormous scale, technology was needed to fix it. And this technology is what's required to uncover the true distortions between economic and GAAP earnings, because it helps warn investors about bad stocks in the market, such as Beyond Meat. We warned on it near the top. We warned on it at the IPO. It's down 96%. Groupon down 91%. Allbirds down 98%. But it also helps us spot good stocks that can lead to triple-digit gains. Bath and Body Works, another example. We went through, we, we created our proprietary and adjusted economic earnings. Since then, the stock's up 430%. Or over the next year after we identified the economic earnings were greater than accounting earnings, it was up over 430%. Natural Resource Partners, we updated our proprietary adjusted economic earnings and the stock is up over 260%. DXB Enterprises, We updated those economic earnings, and over the next year, it was up over 160%. These stock picks closely align with Warren Buffett's philosophy, where he highlights the difference between a good company and a good investment. Specifically, he says investors making purchases in an overheated market need to recognize that it may often take an extended period for the value of an outstanding company to catch up with the price they pay. It's like a perfect example of the crowded market we're in right now. So much wealth going into so few stocks and such an expensive market. It's, it's, it's not looking good for long-term expected returns from here, my friends. I don't think it's looking good at all. I think it's going to be tough. And that's why, that's why we're here. That's why we're here, to give you an alternative, a better way to find stocks. If it's— if I think it's an investor superpower to find companies earning significantly more than what the market perceives. Because that's how you get an edge like the greats. But you can only do that if you have the right research and data to see where economic earnings are greater than GAAP earnings. This is not an easy thing to do. Heads up, Google or ChatGPT, they will not give you an accurate list of companies where economic earnings are greater than GAAP earnings. This information is available only from our system. Their numbers are based on faulty data and will not give you a good read on what's really happening. No one has the data that we have. That's what Harvard Business School, MIT Sloan, Ernst Young, and the Journal of Financial Economics all proved. Only we can do that. Here's what it looks like using our research platform. We actually have a special chart just for this. Been tracking this kind of stuff for 25 years. Here you can see economic earnings greater than accounting earnings. 2 different companies, 2 different trends. When this metric is in place, eventually those profits can catch up and boost the stock. The key is getting your money in ahead of the crowd. Again, being different, being successful, being great by definition means being different. Being different in investing business means you're doing stuff before everyone finds it popular. That's how you make the big bucks. Chasing the popular stocks is a short-term trading scheme, not a real investment strategy. Now, I need to be transparent with you. Although our hidden gem metric of economic earnings greater than GAAP earnings is extremely powerful and rare for stocks to have, it is not the be-all end-all to find a quality stock pick. It's still important to find a stock with this metric in place that also has a cheap valuation that's poised to explode. And that's what our proven stock rating system is designed to do. Our ratings are powered by robo-analyst AI. And they apply to over 3,400, 3,300 stocks and another 7,000 or 8,000 ETFs and mutual funds. But this is what the rating system looks like. You have an overall risk-reward rating system. Why risk-reward? Because I don't believe I can predict the future. But I can give you the best possible measure of risk-reward. This AI has the ability to comb through thousands of government filings with precision, analyzing every line and footnote. Some of the top investors at the top firms use and pay heavily for this system. Its superpower is finding these earnings distortions across thousands of publicly traded stocks. Our rating system includes 5 key metrics. The first is quality of earnings. Or economic earnings versus accounting earnings, reported EPS, same thing as GAAP earnings. We track this as part of our rating system. It's a big part of the system. We like to understand when, especially when there's a misleading trend, when accounting earnings are positive and rising and economic earnings are negative and declining. Big red flag. We track return on invested capital. That's my favorite ratio in the business. How much capital does the business generate? Relative to how much capital has gone into it over its life. No one measures that better than we do. No one measures economic earnings better than we do. Return on invested capital is one of the most important elements within economic earnings. Then we got 3 valuation metrics. You got your free cash flow yield, your price-to-economic book value, which is the price relative to the no-growth value of the business, and then the market implied growth appreciation period. We've done a whole training on this before. That's a very powerful metric as well. And, and that one has been used to, to create some special stock bundles that look really good also. And, and it's a very important metric and a very important part of our rating. We've been doing a bunch of case studies. If you've not seen them, go to our website, look at free trainings, tons of case studies showing how our reverse discounted cash flow model drives this metric and how powerful it can be. But it's a— it's probably one of the most sophisticated and advanced and insightful models in the entire market. And that's a big part of our valuation section here in our overall rating system. But the most beautiful thing about all that you're seeing with respect to this rating system— a lot of really complicated complication calculations and a lot of data goes into all this— the beautiful part about this for you is that it makes things simple. Green means good. Red means bad. All 5 metrics play a critical role in rating a stock, but we're making it simple because that's what good research does— not misleading, but simple— because it's based on real data and the best analytics in the world. These metrics help us gauge the quality of a company's earnings and determine if the stock is priced correctly in relation to the true earnings. That's why we got quality of earnings and valuation 2 super key components. It's such a good rating system that Harvard Business School published a 50-page paper proving the superiority of our stock ratings. You want a funny story about this? I didn't even know about it until it was done. They didn't tell me about that. They had a way to access some of our ratings through an academic data feed through one of our syndication partners. They went and did all this work. I think, like, and I think I found out about it, like, maybe they did something on CNBC. Or maybe they called me, I don't remember. But it was kind of nice, like, hey, by the way, we just published a paper proving that your RoboAnalyst stock ratings outperform all Wall Street ratings. Pretty cool. We also have the only stock rating system, the only research platform, the only research firm that I know of in the world that has an official US patent behind it. Again, go into the chat and let me know if any of this stuff is not true. Like, you guys know of another research firm that has a patent? You know, another research firm that has Harvard Business School papers written for it, or any other prestigious institution, please let me know. And the other thing I want you to know that when we talk about our AI, we are super transparent. I did an interview at the Stansberry Research Conference just a couple months ago. And it's on our site. You can find it. Just look up Stansberry in the blog. It'll come up. But I was telling people very clearly that AI is not magic. Data matters more than technology. If you have bad inputs, you're gonna have bad outputs. It doesn't matter how many billions of dollars you spend on your model. There's no such thing as a model that can turn bad data into good data. Why do you think all the venture capital money that's been spent in AI, why do you think the majority of that has gone to cleaning up data? By the way, I don't actually believe you can clean data. The only way to get data right is to get it from the source. If you haven't verified the data against the source, How do you even know if it's right or wrong? And that's why we collect everything from the source, and that's what we show you, our source data. ChatGPT is not reliable. All of these big models, these AI models out there, large language models, they don't work. You know why? Because they're based on the internet. Pop quiz, everybody. Close your books. Put down your calculators. Pop quiz. What percentage of the internet is reliable? What percentage— put it in the chat, put it in the Q&A. What percentage of the internet is reliable? Let me know. If we get enough correct answers, I'll go through 4 stocks instead of 3. All right. Great answers. Trick question. We don't know, but we doubt it's probably over 50%. But the problem is you really don't know. I mean, like, if you don't know how much your data is reliable, how can you trust any model that's based on it? And I think the most important thing to think about with AI is, is that it's gotta be based on a focused dataset. You can't pretend to boil the ocean. Right? And I, and I've, and I listen to a lot of podcasts and experts talking about AI, and they're all talking about how they're training it against the internet. And they wanna build these inference models and all these things. And it, but the problem is that it's like a, it's a, it's a flawed dataset to begin with. So our AI is based on a very, very curated dataset. It's one that we know that is small enough that we know we can get exactly right. Because a huge one, you just can't. It's very focused on financial statements and footnotes. And this technology is going to do the research that most people don't do and do the proper diligence that most people don't do. Remember what I said? In order to be great, you got to do stuff that other people aren't willing to do, that don't do. That's exactly what we're about. Tom Brady says it well, to win in this world, you have to be willing to do things that other people will not do. Chasing popular stocks, not a great strategy. You want to be better than someone, you got to do work harder. You got to do things that they're not willing to do. That's just by definition. And the RoboAnalyst technology does that. It delivers alpha from the footnotes, which Harvard Business School proves the market is missing. It delivers alpha from the footnotes, which Harvard Business School proves the market is missing. Those 2 sentences mean a lot. They go together very well. The alpha comes from the fact that the market is missing the footnotes. We have something that the market is missing, and we're packaging, packaging this up in a way to make it extremely easy for you to profit from that. Most investors and professionals don't have the time To find and read footnotes. It's really hard. How many of you have tried it? Put that in the chat. I'd like to know how many of you have read a filing, a 10-K or 10-Q, from COVID to cover in the last month. The reason this work is hard, and those of you who've read them know, is because it's buried in 200— a 200-plus page filing. And some of them are 2,000 pages. And by the way, this is not comic book material. It's not, there's not a lot of pictures in there unless they're placed illegally as a, as a form to obfuscate, to make it harder for machines to read the data. But no, there's no cartoons, there's no pictures, there's no colors. It's a lot of text, complicated legalese and accounting jargon. But you know what? We do it because that's what it takes to get an edge. And do proper diligence. I strongly believe in doing my diligence. It's a big part of who I am and what New Constructs has always been about. And the bottom line, without our technology, this process costs millions of dollars per quarter. I know my clients tell me. We just recently did a bunch of renewals, and it's great. You know, I talk about these institutional clients. Hey, we're going to do a price increase this year. And their reaction is, no problem. And at the end of the call, they thank me because they freely admit it would— they would have to hire 10, 20, 30, 100 people to, to try to replicate what they get from us at a fraction of that cost. And 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, I mean, that's probably 100 people just to go through the data. That doesn't count building the models, building the data and database and data extraction system to model all that data and put it into meaningful form. It's a lot that goes into it. Then once all the data is there, you got to figure out how to model it in a way to express the alpha that's in that footnote data. It's a lot of expertise and a lot of work. That's why nobody else does it. It's too much easier. Look, when you're making as much money as Cramer and Wall Street, buy, buy, buy. Don't fix it if it ain't broke. The sad truth about Wall Street is that 96% of the stocks that they cover get a buy or hold rating. 96%. That's because their paychecks depend on you buying stocks. That's how they make their money. Remember I said before, the sell side doesn't make money based on good stock picks. They make money selling stock. That's their job. Selling stock means investment banking business. All right, I got another pop quiz for you. Pencils or calculators down. Books closed. What percentage of the revenue that Wall Street in general makes, what percentage of that comes from the research analysts, the sell side? Anybody know? Oh, we got a lot of different answers. I got— I think we got some veterans on here. We got a lot of right answers. The answer is zero. They don't make money selling research, my friends. They make money with investment bankers and the traders. So guess what happens to the sell side research analysts If they're not positive about a stock, if they're not helping that investment banker get a better relationship with the company, what happens to that sell-side analyst? They get fired. It's happened. I've worked with folks, good folks got fired for saying the truth on Wall Street. Truth doesn't sell, my friends. Truth doesn't sell. Investment banking deals make money. And you don't get companies to choose you to be their investment banker if you got a sell rating on their stock. Right. So should we be surprised? Should we be surprised that Wall Street wants you to buy or hold 96% of stocks? Probably not. Are you surprised to know that less than 13% of our stocks have an attractive rating or better? Less than 4% are listed as very attractive. Now, we've already mentioned that Wall Street wants you to either buy or hold over 96% of their stock recommendations. But according to recent data, 50% of Wall Street ratings for stocks are listed as buy compared to our 13%. Here's the ratio. Look at this. Buy. We got red here for their buy ratings because I don't really trust their buy ratings. They've got some buy ratings of some stocks that I think are absolutely risky and going to hurt a lot of people. And it's troubling to see. We're more discerning, obviously, at 13%. Here are a couple quick samples of how our stock ratings compare to Morningstar, also part of Wall Street. You can see they had positive ratings on all of these. We had negative, neutral. We only overlapped the same on a couple. Morningstar is also positive. They make money from the companies they cover as well. They're conflicted in the same way that other traditional sell-side firms are conflicted. There are many more examples of how misleading Wall Street buy ratings can be and how they compare to our honest ratings. Here's some specifics. Back when, according to Wall Street, New Fortress Energy was a buy or hold over the past year, for us it was unattractive. Stock is down 61%. Whose rating would you rather trust? How about Wolfspeed? Wall Street had a buy or hold rating after— over the past year. We said unattractive. Down 78% over the past year. Who should you trust? And then there's Moderna, mostly a buy or hold this year, unattractive to very unattractive throughout the year on our system, down 62%. Who should you trust? I said this before and I'll continue to say it: trusting Wall Street research is like trusting the tobacco companies when they said that cigarettes were not harmful or addictive. Wall Street is not out there to help you be healthy, for you to be financially healthy. They're out there to make themselves money. Same thing here. So what is different about our research? Diligence. We've done the work analyzing thousands and thousands of pages of SEC filings to uncover critical data that is often buried in the footnotes. You may also be wondering, sure, your stock ratings at New Constructs are different from Wall Street, but how do we know they are better? Well, how about being ranked number 1 by SumZero for 44 straight months against over 16,000 buy-side stock pickers? How about the fact that top-tier institutions prove the superiority of our ratings at every layer? Remember I said how it was important that every model had good data? Well, Harvard Business School and MIT professors teamed up to publish a paper in a top-tier peer-reviewed journal that proves our data is superior, and we are able to express that in a way that actually generates alpha. Core earnings is empirically distinct, distinct from commonly used alternatives, and it's less likely to be susceptible to compositional and selection biases found in analysts' and managerial estimates. That's academic speak for our data is better and not susceptible to the tricks that everyone else's data is susceptible to. And that these strategies create abnormal returns. That's another word for novel alpha. Ernst Young wrote a paper proving that our analytics, our models were superior. And then this Harvard Business School paper I mentioned a minute ago, a minute ago proves that our ratings are superior. Again, I have yet to see, and I've been doing this for a while, and I've been asking people for a long time, is there another research firm that can say the same thing as us about the superiority of our data or superiority of their research? Not only does our research protect you from false buy ratings, it shows you the true buys, those stocks that are attractive or very attractive based on our superior data and analytics. Remember, only about 13% of the thousands of stocks we analyze have an attractive or very attractive rating, which is rare to begin with. And so when we find a stock that has both an attractive or very attractive stock rating and economic earnings greater than accounting earnings, well, you'll be able to find stock plays that can potentially demolish the S&P in the next few years, such as Capri Holdings. We went through the 10-K. Did our diligence, found out that economic earnings were greater than accounting earnings. Stock was up 220% over the next year. Fundco, same story, up over 110% in the next year after identifying that economic earnings were greater than accounting earnings. Argonne, up 90% over the next year after we identified that economic earnings were greater. It's important to note these picks go above and beyond our typical rating system. They are considered outliers. And amongst the attractive— even amongst the attractive-rated stocks, these guys are considered outliers. We have not placed these stocks into a monthly model portfolio yet. It's new research, it's fresh. They are special picks that receive a new super rating. Why? Because not only are they rated attractive or better, they also have the golden metric in place. That no one is able to see but us. We've been building and refining our data for over 2 decades now, which gets updated daily with new stock prices and any new filings from the SEC. At least once a quarter, we update our models on over 3,000 stocks with the latest financial data. That means there are always new ideas coming out of our research. However, we still get very few stocks with this criteria in place. And when we do find these special stocks, we pay extra close attention because most of the time these stocks will have us shouting, it's time to back up the truck. The comprehensive, the comprehensive nature of our research entails countless pages of data documentation, including information from balance sheets, income statements, cash flow statements, footnotes, dozens of other disclosures. Producing and maintaining this level of detailed research would set you back millions of dollars each quarter. And our higher-level memberships give you access to a level of depth of financial research that's considered a goldmine to the big professional hedge fund, mutual fund managers. This reminds me of the letter Roberto Goizueta, the legendary CEO of Coca-Cola, wrote me after seeing my first-ever economic earnings model. Roberto was the CEO of Coke when it went from $4 to $150 billion in market cap, one of the most beloved CEOs of all time, wrote me a letter at Credit Suisse saying that he was so happy that people were starting to pay attention to return on invested capital and economic earnings because he believes that's what makes America and our capital markets successful. At the end of the day, taking capital at $4 billion and turning into $100 billion, that's how you create value. Because Coca-Cola's return on capital economic earnings were great. We could trust Roberto Goizeta to take the money from shareholders and turn the dollar that they gave them into more money. That's what's great. That's why we don't want to allocate capital to stocks that are already too expensive. They can't do anything with that money. They're maxed out. That money needs to go to the dark corners of the market, to the stocks we're talking about, because they are making real money and they're undervalued. They can take that capital and create real growth. Otherwise, we crowd into other big stocks. All you're doing is lining the pockets of Wall Street. You're lining the pockets of Wall Street executives like Elon Musk and the guy at Nvidia and all the bankers that are selling stock into these high prices. But if you put your money into the good stock picks, the dark corners, that's where you also make yourself money and you actually make the markets better. Look at what's happening at all the institutions around the world. Are we surprised? Heck no. I mean, we're waking up from a bunch of really false narratives already, right? Whether it's COVID, whether, whether it's we should be so divided as a country, we recognize people are trying to manipulate us and they're doing the same thing in the stock market, my friends. SPACs, NFTs. Meme stocks, meme coins— those are false narratives. Those are meant to steal money from you and undermine the integrity of our markets. You should not trust them. You should not trust the people and the platforms pushing them. At New Constructs, though, we believe in trust, and we believe we deserve it. We can prove we deserve it. We deliver transparency and authenticity at New Constructs. Watch any of my other videos. Watch those reverse DCF case studies. When I tell you that a stock's expensive, I show you the math. If you've seen any of my earnings watch recaps or any of my live earnings watches, which I'm going to be doing another one of those in just a couple hours or so, we give you the real math. I'm not making stuff up. I show you a model and show you exactly how the stock looks cheap or expensive. We are anti— we are anti-propaganda. We are the We are the cure for propaganda. We only recommend stocks that we believe are truly valuable based on superior data. We are not paid to promote or to rate as attractive any stocks or ETFs. Okay, friends, thanks very much for being with me.
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