AI is the latest speculative bubble, following tech stocks, mortgage-backed securities, and EVs. When a business gets exceptional returns, competitors pile in and erode margins until profits match the cost of capital. That's why AI won't deliver outsized returns.
Chapters
AI is the new meme stocks. You know, I've seen this movie so many times, whether it's the tech bubble or it's mortgage-backed securities or social media stocks or it's electric vehicles. Whenever there's a new technology, people think that the first few companies are going to have the lion's share of the profits and value. Anyone who's ever thought much about competition would challenge that because if you have a really profitable business, you've got really high margins, great returns on invested capital, that will invite competition. And the competition just has to say, oh, this company does 100% ROIC. I'm going to do what they do, but I'm going to do it for a 95% ROIC. But 95 is still really good. I'm still making a lot of money and I can take share from these guys. And then the next company says, you know what, I'll do it for 90. And the next company says, you know, I'll do it for 80, 60, 50, until it goes to the cost of capital. Because the world is competitive. They're going to come after you. So yeah, I'm not too interested about AI at this point.