A 24-year-old analyst describes how Wall Street maintains two sets of numbers: low public earnings estimates so favored stocks beat them and rise in price, while giving institutional clients higher private target prices based on more optimistic models. He faced pushback for questioning the practice.
Chapters
And they kind of gave me the typical pushback, which was like, oh, no, maybe your model doesn't understand the nuances of my companies or this or that. I'm like, no, no, no, it does them all. It's fine. Blah, blah, blah, blah. They finally said, okay, the reason we can't use your model is because then people will know that we have 2 sets of numbers. And I'm like, what do you mean? Well, you know how the game works, David. If I'm bullish on a stock, I have a buy rating. I want it to go up. Well, stocks go up when they beat the number, beat their earnings number. So for all the stocks that I like, I've got really low estimates, so it's easy for them to beat. Now, if we put those estimates into a valuation model, well, then the stock's going to look expensive because showing it's got no profits. I'm like, yeah, so what do you do? How do you, how do you like have a target price? Like, well, that's my other number. That's what I give to my institutional clients. I was like, and I didn't know what to say. I was like 24 years old. I was like, oh, that sounds bad.