Watch Our Earnings Recap on Cisco, CoreWeave, Walmart, Alibaba, Deere, Cava, and More

Welcome everybody, it is Friday, May 16th. We are doing an earnings watch on Cisco, CoreWeave, Walmart, Alibaba, Applied Materials, Deere, Kava, and more. Uh, excited to be with you guys. If you got requests for stocks you want me to take a look at, stick them into the chat. But with that, I will get going. I will share my screen here and we will jump into our latest earnings watch. As always, if you've got questions, please don't hesitate to let me know. I want to hear what you guys have to say and I want to make sure that anything you guys need to know, we provide the answers because at New Constructs, that's what we do. So we're going to cover a bunch of stocks today. We are also going to share a little bit of training about what it is we do. And also, also need to always start with our disclosures and disclaimers. Look, we are not an investment advisory firm. We are a publisher of information and research. We are here to help educate, but not to guide any kind of investment decision-making process. That is not what we do. So let me know. Let me hear from you in the chat, as I mentioned before. And let's just jump into what kind of market we're in. Look, we've recently heard that, look, interest rates aren't going to be going down as much as people thought. This would typically really send the market into a tailspin. We know for sure that the trade war is driving prices up. The biggest retailer in the world counts about 90% of Americans as its clients, said flat out, we're going to have to raise prices. And the recession— recession still remains a significant possibility, according to one of the smartest guys in the business, Jamie Dimon. And then on a company-specific basis, Meta is delaying the release of its behemoth AI model. What does this mean for one of the most profitable, best stocks in the market for the past year? And then Trump's really putting his thumb on some folks. He got after Tim Cook for building products in India instead of the US. So I think this idea that all the trade stuff is behind us and that we can just assume that President Trump is going to take it easy and just not do anything to disrupt markets for the rest of the year might be naive. Oil prices are dropping as President Trump is doing deals in the Middle East, including potentially with Iran. Crazy. And then one place where AI does seem to be working is Alibaba. It's seeing huge dividends. So let me give you a quick background. Look, I was on Wall Street for a long time. I've seen the tricks. And at New Constructs, we built something different. Something that gives investors something they can trust, a clear, honest truth serum, a decoder ring for the propaganda, things that are based on real, verifiable numbers, not just a bunch of hype. And by the way, the performance has been pretty stellar. We've been the number one ranked stock picker on SumZero, which is a buy-side network of 16,000 people, for 47 straight weeks in a row. And by the way, buy side means we're competing against professional investors. Our work's also been vetted and validated by some of the most prestigious institutions in the world. And then the performance of our stock picks. You have to take my word for it. Bloomberg has a family of indices that demonstrate the performance, that demonstrate the alpha. You can see here our Very Attractive Stocks Index in the first quarter was up 4.5% while the market was down 5% or 4.5%. Outperformed by 9% in just the first quarter. Over the last 5 years, it's beaten the S&P by 80%. We have another index. And by the way, this other index is based on our very attractive stocks. Just if you hold the stocks that get a very attractive rating, this is the kind of outperformance that you can achieve. This is kind of the alpha in our data. By alpha, I mean incremental stock picking power that can't be found elsewhere. That's how you outperform. You're doing things that other firms don't or can't do. There's a ton of data in our core earnings number. This is an index that is effectively, it's an enhanced version of the S&P 500. So instead of weighting the S&P 500 stocks based on market cap, we weight them based on core earnings. That's it. Somebody else can pick the stocks. We can still outperform because we're going to weight those stocks in a superior way. When you do that, you saw that we got outperformance in the first quarter of 1%. If you look out over, over 5 years, outperformed by 33%. Again, folks, this is just weighting somebody else's stocks, in this case the S&P 500, based on core earnings as opposed to market cap. So look, I think it's important, and you guys have been to my presentations, you hear me and see me talking about this over and over. Why? Because Proof is in performance, my friends. Like, we're showing alpha in the data right now and over a long period of time. It doesn't get any better than that. If you ever wanted to believe whether or not a research product worked, you'd want to see results like this. And if any of you can show me that you've seen results like this from other firms, please put it in the chat. I'll give you a free copy of my Most Attractive Stocks report. Free copy of one of our most valuable model portfolios right now. If you can show me another research firm that is anything close to this. Now, there's a catch. These indices are managed by Bloomberg, and they are not available for the public to purchase yet. We want them to be in ETS, but they're not all there yet. So the only place you can get this research is from us. That's why I'm doing this, right? We sell research. That's how we make our money. So it's important that our research be something that people can trust. Right? That's just— this is what we do. We provide superior information for making investment decisions. That's not what Wall Street does. Wall Street doesn't do that. Wall Street doesn't make money on research. They make money on investment banking and trading, which is why 90% of the stocks covered by Wall Street are listed as buy or hold. They don't care what the rating is because they're not really there to help you make decisions. They care to have a good relationship with the companies for whom they have the ratings because they make money on the banking. That's the difference. Their paychecks depend on you buying stocks. They make no profit from research. They want you to buy as much as possible because they want to be able to go to companies and say, we can sell a lot of your stock as possible and make you, Mr. CEO, rich. That's their job. So there's a big difference between the amount of buy ratings on Wall Street versus New Constructs. We have a much lower number because we have integrity. We're only rating the stocks that deserve a good rating. Which is why our ratings outperform. Another thing that's really important to keep in mind, especially as we're in earnings season, is that when you dig into the real numbers, big companies, especially for these bigger, really highly valued companies, there's a huge gap between the valuations of these stocks and the current cash flows. Now, Wall Street would have you— doesn't want you to have any idea about this. No idea. Because if you knew, You wouldn't buy. If you knew how trivially small earnings estimates are in terms of explaining the valuation of a business, you wouldn't buy most of the stocks they're trying to sell. You'd be terrified if you knew the whole truth. Guess what? We're going to scare you. If you're new to us, this is going to be scary. So here's a great example, case study. New Constructs will always give you a case study. If you're ever seeing something from new constructs or from me and you're like, oh, how do you do that? What is that? Are you making it up? You're spoofing it? Ask me. I will show you. And here's a great example of me showing you. So for these 3 companies, the best Wall Street can offer is estimates that go out a few years. You can see the '25 and '26 numbers. You can get those freely available in a lot of different places. The numbers in '27 and beyond we took from a private site. So we don't give you the exact numbers, just a general range. But this is the best you can get from Wall Street. Estimates going out to 2030. What we give you is what you deserve, the whole truth. Our models will show you all the cash flows baked into stock prices, the whole picture. Because the gap between the full amount of cash flow required to justify a stock price and the earnings estimates is staggering. Let me show you exactly what I mean. Here's Tesla. In the red, what you see are the future cash flows required to justify the stock price. Now, I think the price is up a lot since then, since $276. So the red area is even bigger. But this is over the lifetime of the business, what it has to do to justify the price. This is based on a very straightforward discounted cash flow model that doesn't try to predict the future. It instead reverse engineers the expectations baked into the price, the cash flows baked into the price. When we do that work, which we do for every company we cover, what you see is in the red. That blue area, those are those Wall Street analyst estimates. What kind of price does that imply? Maybe $10 a share, right? So they're going to get you to focus on that. They're going to get you to worry about a penny per share either here or there, when in reality, all of it's a drop in the bucket compared to what the company really has to do. How about Amazon? $189 a share. This is the future value, the future cash flows, the, the present value of these future cash flows required to justify the price. This is actually just— this isn't present value earnings, it's just the earnings that they give us. I didn't even discount them to the present because I don't have to, because the difference between where Wall Street is and where the actual valuation is is so huge. Nvidia, similar situation. The cash flows required to justify its price dwarf the EPS estimates. So I hope I made my point clear. EPS earnings estimates, they're not nearly enough to make informed decisions. And it's part of why I do these earnings, these earnings watch parties, because I'm going to show you beat or miss. What do we— what does it really matter to the big picture for these companies and stocks? Wall Street doesn't want you to know the truth, and definitely not in this environment. Definitely not in this market because it's going to get tougher. Well, how do we do what we do? What is our edge to outperform even in the most chaotic markets? Most of you know it's our robo-analyst technology, the first and best and only AI for investing. It's been used and is used by some of the most sophisticated investors in the world. And we simplify it down for you, though, to make it usable for everybody. Because I've got big clients. I've had them for years. Some of the most sophisticated investors in the world have been my clients for 2 decades. But I'm here to provide you access to something that can change your world for investing. And I had to make it simple because guess what? Investment decisions can be simple as long as someone else has done the work. What you don't want is oversimplification that avoids work. Which is what you get with all this oversimplification. So you don't look at the big picture, just think about earnings and obsess about a penny per share on an earnings number that is utterly inconsequential to the bigger picture of the valuation. That's what everyone else does. What I do is make it real simple in terms of green is good and red means bad, because we've done all the work to really understand what that means. I've done so much great work that I, I'm the only firm that hasn't— that has a patent on our system. Because the truth of the matter is you need a system, you need technology because nobody has the time to read 200-plus-page 10-Ks and 10-Qs. It costs people millions of dollars per quarter to do this. We know. My clients tell me. They pay us a tenth of that because they're— and they're happy to do it because they know it's a tenth of what they'd have to pay if they try to do it themselves. Even if they— even assuming they could get it, which I don't know that they would. What we do in— and what we do entails countless hours and data and pages of stuff from income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements. And we're going straight into the notes. No other firm can show you examples of where we pulled stuff straight out of the notes. I got 2 right here for you. On our website, if you're an institutional client, you can look at millions of them. Every single page in a filing, it's in there. And every single, every single item we've highlighted on the filing, we can show you in a matter of clicks. So with that, let me get to the— let me get to the heat of the heart of the matter. We just wanted to spend a few minutes talking about, hey, what we— how what we do is special. But let's get into— let's get into our earnings watch. So we're going to look at these stocks. I am going to go to our system. I'm going to go to the portfolios page. I'm going to create a new portfolio. We'll call it Earnings Watch 516. I'll fix my spelling. We'll create a new portfolio, close this out. We come to the page, Earnings Watch 516. I'm going to type— I'm going to paste in these tickers. Here's what we got. So Oklo is not part of our coverage yet. They don't have complete financial statements. That's part of the problem. Forgot about that. Can you see what I'm sharing now? And for how long could you not see what I— because is everybody able to— let me know if you haven't been able to see my screen or my slides. I see one person who said that. Are there others? Okay, cool. And I'm sure you see what I see now. All right, great. Thank you, guys. I've made that mistake before. It's kind of a nightmare. And I honestly, I was like 20 minutes in. To another training, and it was like I'd never show my screen. It's like, oh my gosh! Just wasted like everybody's time. So anyway, I'm a good talker. I'm not that good. The slides help a lot. So here we go. Let's talk about the. Let's go. Let's go in order of market cap. Take a look. Okay, Walmart. Big news from Walmart. We know this is where we got the big announcement about how they're gonna have to raise prices. Business was good. I'm not really surprised to see. And we can see the stock is doing pretty well, flat over the last few days, as is the rest of the market. Today is a good day. They're going to have to hike prices. I think their earnings were good. They topped views because guess what? There's been a lot of pull-forward spending. People know prices are going to go up, so they've been out shopping and buying now and stocking up because they know tariffs are going to hit. But prices are going to be going up. And look, Walmart— I think the biggest takeaway from all this is that Walmart is like Is there a better company for giving us a proxy of what's going to happen with prices? So let's take a look at what we think about Walmart. What's going on here? Good company, bad stock. Look, there was a time when Walmart was on our focus list. We loved it. It was awesome. It's been one of the best return on invested capital companies in the history of the world in terms of a strong return on invested capital. And steady over a long period of time. You can see here return on capital steady. This is just 5 years. If we were to open our model on Walmart, you would see that it has had a good strong return on capital for an extremely long period of time. Super impressive element of the business that it's been able to do that as well as it has for as long as it has. I think that's super impressive. And yeah, it's a good business. It's making money. The problem is it's gotten expensive. That's why we closed our position. It's gotten expensive. Does that mean it won't keep going up? No. But does it mean it's good risk-reward? No. Neutral risk-reward. When valuation gets super high, I think sometimes some stocks are more neutral than others, I guess the way I would put it. They're more dangerous than others. Walmart, because it's such a steady eddy, it's one of the least dangerous stocks for a neutral rating. But it's not going to be as exciting either in terms of what we're going to see as upside. So you can see with our professional membership, you also get to compare how economic earnings and reported earnings stack up. Not so good. Like Walmart's juicing the books a little bit here. Accounting earnings have diverged in a way they haven't always for, for Walmart. Return on capital still looking steady. You can see the stats period by period beneath that. We're looking at margins and capital efficiency. This is an often overlooked power move by Walmart, their capital efficiency is the best. How do they have good capital efficiency? It's all about the merchandising. It's getting the right products to the right stores in the right place where customers buy it. So those products spend as little time on the shelf as possible. So Walmart, that's part of why they can afford lower margins and lower prices is because their merchandising is amazing. And that's what's manifest in this capital turns. That's where you see that, the ability to get the products to the places where they're gonna sell the fastest. They're turning stuff over faster than everyone else. That's why their capital capital efficiency is better. And they're doing that, you know, in stores consistently across lots of stores. So they're not just doing it in a few spots across lots of stores. They're maximizing revenue per square foot. They're maxing revenue per dollar of capital in the business. Free cash flow. Hey, Walmart's one of these big stocks that's actually making money, right? And it's one of— that's what's part of what's so powerful to us. And when it was on the focus list, we're like, oh my gosh, these guys are growing. They're not growing as much now. But they were growing pretty significantly still several years ago. But they're still making so much money that they can be opening new stores and still be free cash flow positive. I mean, this is— I mean, look at this free cash flow. You got $3.3 billion, $37 billion, $13 billion, $6 billion, $4 billion, $14 billion. And we just got the K, so we don't have any quarterly results to put in here. But that's a big number. Now, relative to enterprise value, not that big, but making a lot of money. Price-to-economic book value ratio, you can see The profitability has gone down. But what's happened in the last year? We've had a lot of money crowded into the market. What has it done? Just driven the stock price up faster than the economics of the business have improved. And then the market implied growth appreciation period analysis or the price implied growth appreciation period analysis, if they grow at consensus rates and margins stay the same, It's going to take— and margins actually get better. It still takes more than 100 years for our reverse discounted cash flow model to come up with a value equal to the current stock price. So yeah, expensive stock, expensive stock. Credit rating. Good one. This again, it's a high-quality business. If we were to look at their model for Walmart, you could see, you know, the data goes back all the way to 1998 on an annual. Quarterly TTM basis, you know, it's it's it's all there. And then, you know, the model in terms of profitability evaluation, you can see we have a we have a couple scenarios here where if the company grows at a lot faster rate, let's just say this optimistic scenario grows a lot faster, eight percent, while also seeing improvement in profitability. Well, you only need eleven years of growth at that rate. 11 years. But what does that mean in terms of revenue? I mean, they're going to have to go from— by the way, I think Walmart's number 1 in the S&P 500. So $680 billion, $681 billion to $1.6 trillion. That's a lot of growth. That's, I think, about the GDP of Japan these days or something like that. Somebody can look that up. And then in terms of net operating profit after tax, you know, that would put them at $65 billion, which would be amongst the very best in the entire world for sure. So a lot of good news priced in the stock. That's what I mean by good company, bad stock. All right, let's go to Alibaba. Alibaba, they had a good report, a good, good quarter, and, and this AI success, very interesting as well. Let's see, last 5 days down quite a bit. So they didn't— shares dropped more than 7% on big profit miss. So profits weren't so good, but they made a lot of promises on how AI is going to help the business grow. I think, you know, we've got, I think we've got some old school folks on the phone here or longtime clients of New Constructs. And, you know, I think, I think companies based in China present an enigma because you never know for sure what might happen or where their best interests lie. Well, I guess you kind of do now. I mean, you know, look, the PBOC cares most about the PBOC, 100%. And so, you know, this is an interesting stock. I honestly have been surprised that Munger and folks, you know, were as bullish as they were on a business that could potentially, you know, take everything away from US shareholders. Look, we've seen this happen with a lot of small-cap stocks. There have been a lot of small-cap Chinese scams. And look, they don't hold themselves to the same level of accounting and audits. So interesting from a rating perspective, you know, it gets an attractive rating. I would, I would, you know, I would be concerned if this was expensive, you know. And I think the fact that it isn't that expensive is that not many people are willing to buy into the hype, you know. And they'd much rather put their money into a Berkshire Hathaway or a Walmart or a Microsoft or Meta because kind of trust the results there a little bit better, even though this is a pretty terrifically profitable company. We're getting a new K here any day now. By the way, every quarter About a quarter of our ratings changes. So 25% of our ratings change every quarter, quarter to quarter, every quarter, quarter of the ratings change. And by the way, ratings changes are tremendously profitable for folks. So you should keep that in mind with respect to like a professional membership gives you access to all these ratings. You can track companies, you can see when their ratings change. You can't necessarily track the entire market or all of our coverage and see ratings change. That's institutional level. But for all the stocks you care about, you can put them into a portfolio and you'll get alerted every time a rating change. When something gets upgraded to very attractive, that's a very good thing in terms of future price performance. I'll show you some examples in a minute, but as I've shown you already, the very attractive stocks portfolio on Bloomberg has done extremely well. So very attractive stocks are great. There's additional upside when stocks get upgraded. Too very attractive. So Alibaba, attractive rating suspended because we're about to get a new 6K. And so, you know, the takeaway here is it depends on your appetite for taking risk and dealing with China. All right, let's go with Cisco. Cisco has kind of been, you know, a favorite of ours for a while. Uh, it was a, it was a focus list stock as well, and then it got expensive. As you can see, we're the neutral rating. We've kept it on the focus list because we like the business, and you know, but this red thing makes us think it might be time to sell. They just did a big acquisition, and I think the stock continues to just just crush it. And you know, look, we're not immune to recognizing momentum at certain times, especially when it's in our favor. I mean, look, we we had a buy on GameStop before it became a meme stock, and that turned out to be an enormous. Great performer, but you can see Cisco has been an outperformer year to date. Strong outperformer over the last year and five years. Last five days really well done really well today not as well. Look, we love this business for a lot of reasons. You can you can read about them in our reports. But you know it's been you know it's we loved it because it was like plumbing for the internet. And so we felt like the growth and profitability would go well above expectations. So far we've been proven right. You know, now we got to start thinking about whether or not, you know, maybe this thing is topped out because it is getting pretty expensive. Applied Materials. Yeah, we see a lot of this in everything related to semiconductor stocks, everything related— like, it's all gotten expensive. Now profitability, don't get me wrong, it's amazing. 38% return on capital, right? That's more than 3 times where Walmart is. But can they scale? I don't know. But they're certainly priced to scale. This 2.4 price-to-economic book value ratio, probably my favorite quick and dirty metric on valuation. Doesn't work all the time, but it works a lot of the time in terms of just giving you a quick and dirty read. It's a quick way of saying that the stock price is implying that profits are going to rise 240% from where they are today. That's what the stock price is saying, that the company's profits will rise 240% from where they are today, which means it's expensive. And the, the point here is that for you to believe the stock is a buy, you got to believe that the company is going to do even better than what the stock price already implies. So you got to believe in 270%, 280%, whatever a material improvement is enough to move the stock for it to be an attractive stock for you to buy today according to this valuation metric. Now, one of the ways to get a better sense of how big a deal is a 240% improvement in profits is to model it out over time in a reasonable way. And that's what we did. And we do model it out in that reasonable way. We find that the ability for this company, given its historical growth rates and expected growth rates, to grow to that 240% improvement in profits is highly unlikely. It would take more than 100 years. So just another take on, hey, immediately, how much of the stock price is dependent upon future growth? That's what that 2.4 gives you a handle on. Okay, now if we look at that business, how long would it take for that company to achieve that growth? And that's what this market implied gap shows you. And when we model it out in a reasonable way, it looks like it's going to take way more than 100 years. So not a good sign. Deere. Talk about a company affected by tariffs. So I got a friend who lives in the Midwest told me that on Liberation Day, one of his buddies who had been let go From Deere for a long time was like rehired immediately. So I think this tariff thing has meant jobs for potentially a lot of people. We don't see a lot about that in the headlines. I think there's some silver linings out there that we don't get to see. And I don't know that this one anecdotal example is that representative of the whole world, but I do know that Deere is, is priced to do pretty well. Again, you got kind of good company, bad stock, poor disclosure. This is something we flag because they're giving us a lot less transparency into understanding the differences between their industrial businesses and their financial businesses. So Deere does a lot of financing, like a whole, there's a whole big part of the business that's based on financing. And so we like to distinguish between the debt that's used to run that business and the debt that's used to run the industrial part of the business because they're 2 very different things. The interest expense related to the financing part of the business, well, that's, that's a cost of goods sold. But the interest expense related to the industrial part of the business or the building part of the business, That's a financing, non-operating expense. So we'd like to make those distinctions, and when and we can't do it anymore, that's a bad sign. What happened with Deer? I think they had some good numbers. Jumps on, you know, good numbers now, bad numbers in the future. We've seen that a lot. Hey, we did all right, but we're going to cut guidance. So this is going to be one of those stocks that's really going to ride the wave, I think, of. Tariffs. If we look year to date, wow! Done really well year to date. Interesting. I thought this would have been. You can see here it's been really volatile. So good at beginning of the year, good numbers, and then you know you had this big drawdown, and then come back since then, and then some. So good business, and I think in some ways this business is bullish. You know. The business is going to depend on sort of the bullishness for the world's growth because these guys provide the equipment to help people build and farm and do the things that, that company, that countries that are emerging and becoming more successful are going to do. So it's a good sign that people are bullish about Deere because that means they're bullish on the, on the kind of thing, world prosperity. CoreWeave, didn't they announce some big deal here recently? Yeah. They announced some sort of big $4 billion deal with a pretty big company. Let's see. Yeah. It's with Google. How much money do you think they're making on that deal? Zero, I bet. Oh, it's gonna look good on the top line. But you think Google's like, hey, CoreWeave, we're gonna do a deal with you and we're gonna let you take care of some of our processing. And by the way, we're also in the, we're in, in the data center and computing power business, but we're gonna give some of it to you. Yeah, and we're going to let you make a big profit on that. No, Google's not doing a deal that lets anybody else make profits. They're going to like basically, you know, pay them costs probably. So be careful about this headline. And I would say be careful about this stock. The valuation is off the charts. We warned about this at the IPO. This stock price implies a pretty ridiculous amount of profit growth a long time ago. Misleading results, weak internal controls. IPO investors got ripped off. They don't get any voting power. Poor disclosure because it's using the emerging growth company exemption. And the valuation implies super rapid revenue growth and high margins. That was at $15.6 billion valuation. Current valuation is $31 billion. So it's doubled. Price has doubled since the IPO. So in order to, in order to justify the current stock price, if the margins don't stay the same, they fall the slightest bit— that, I'm sorry, at half the stock price, you gotta— you see what the implied profit has to do? Huge amount of improvement. And if it does anything less than that, you're going to see a significant decline. So I mean, this is one, folks, where just the valuation is pretty ridiculous. Let's see, what else can we see here that would be interesting? Let's take a look at economic. You don't have a lot of history, but you can see economic earnings, GAAP earnings are negative, return on invested capital close to zero. Margins fell, capital turns up. I don't think we're going to see any free cash flow. You don't have a lot of data here because this hasn't been around for a while, but the economic book value per share, negative $35. So you've got all kinds of really super good news priced into the stock. We take a look at some of the numbers here. Interesting. Got a lot of non-operating expenses. So we're showing a positive NOPAT, some good NOPAT growth. So it's not all negative, folks. So, you know, we're not like all just trying to bang on this guy. Invested capital, pretty big. You've got a lot of off-balance sheet debt that people are missing. It looks like here, like, so $13.9 billion. That's a big number on total assets of $19 billion. And then in terms of liabilities, nothing too crazy, you know, $25, $24.5 billion in debt. You don't have a lot of option liability, which is good. So yeah, this is, yeah, this is kind of riding the waves, as Roger put it, of, you know, the AI stuff, whatever. But what I'm telling you folks is all the good news is priced in. All the good news is priced in. Avoid it. Avoid the stock. The stock is one you, you don't, don't walk. You want to run from the stock. See, do I have an optimistic scenario? Let's just go. Let's go crazy here. Let's take this reverse DCF model, and we've got margins, super high margins. Like there's no way they're going to sustain that. Let's go with. We got 20% consensus. Let's go 20% for 20 years. Save that off. Let's see what that implies. Let's see if we assume that kind of revenue growth. What does that mean? 8 years. They got to do 20% revenue growth for 8 years. That would put them at $8.2 billion in revenue. That's what you think they're going to do or better. They would also at the same time have to significantly improve their profits. Keep in mind their profits are super low and they got to get up to $4.2 billion in profits. So it's going to be one of the bigger companies in the S&P 500 in terms of profits. So that's what's priced in. If you think they're going to do that well or better, especially considering that they're, they're so unprofitable as it is, you know, more power to you. I would look for better risk reward. Let's look at Tencent. Interesting. Same thing as Alibaba. Good company, but a little bit more expensive. I think people have— this one said they bid up the price a little bit more than this one, but you got a similar situation. We've just parsed a new 6K and put in a new forecast here in the last couple days. Let's see what happened with TME. Yeah, I wanted to talk about Tencent if we were going to talk about Alibaba. So better than Alibaba here recently. We can compare the two. It's up a good bit more. And Tencent owns TikTok. So there's a lot of interesting things going on there. They are owner of an asset that we as a country think is dangerous. And I do think it's looked at as A father of teenage kids, like, I think it's dangerous. I think the, I think social media is dangerous and we don't understand just how dangerous it is. And it's not just for kids, it's for everybody. We pay too much attention to that. They're monetizing our attention. They're polluting our brains with a lot of bad images. We should be filling our brains with good stuff, not what people who are trying to sell to us want us to see. They don't have the best interest of our brains in mind. They have the best interest of, of themselves in mind and how they can get money out of our wallet. That's their goal. They'll show you whatever they need to show you to get you there. Kava, strong miss. How's it done here recently? Down while the market's up. Year to date, down quite a bit. So good results, but they had to hold back on their outlook. So not surprising. That's what you can take away. The strong miss means either they're going to miss earnings now or they're going to miss in the near future. Cutting guidance, the same thing as a miss. It's like, oh, hey, by the way, those numbers you thought out there, they're not as good as you think. They're not going to be as good as you think. That applies to ones that just happened or the ones that are going to happen in the near future. So our core earnings distortion score worked well here. Kava, the economics of the business have improved. They're still not great, but it's super expensive. Super expensive. 112.4 price-to-economic book value ratio. So the stock price implies that profits are going to be 1,120% better than what they are now. Part of that's because profits are really pretty low right now. You've got negative economic earnings. I think return on capital has turned positive. Margins have turned positive, which is great. Got a margin of 6.9%. So that's good. It's just got to get a lot better. We're not saying it's a terrible business. Business is doing okay, especially one for growing as fast as it is. But the valuation is giving it credit for all kinds of crazy good, good results. We did a good analysis on the implied market share gains and what the price has got to do. You can see at $19.50, it was going to be bigger than Cheesecake Factory. The price was going to imply— was implied that its profits would be bigger than the Cheesecake Factory and all of EAT. What is Eat? That's a, that's a conglomerate of Brinker. Yeah. Brinker with a lot of brands. And so look, Chili's, Maggiano's. Yeah. Chili's. That's a pretty big brand. So Cava has gotta be significantly bigger than them. That was in 1950. It's in 1950. Stock today is what, 99? So yeah, this is basically priced to take over the world. So that gives you a good sense of what our system can do. Let me finish up with a special offer for you guys. I just explained to you a lot about how our professional membership works. You get ratings on 10,000+ securities. You get alerts on anything that you want to track. You track up to 50 portfolios. And we're going to make a special offer for you today on this professional membership. I put a link into the chat for a special deal, and let me show you exactly why this deal is so special. First of all, when we allow you the ability to understand the true profitability and risk in stocks, we give you the opportunity to take advantage of one of the best models in the world, a superior financial model for finding stocks. And as examples, I told you I'd give you examples. Look, we upgraded the stock on April 9th. Within the next month, it was up 32%. That's what happens when you go from neutral to attractive or very attractive. Alibaba, It was up 24% after it got upgraded to very attractive. Guess what? Not attractive anymore. It's gone up too much. You missed it on that one, but we identified it when it was cheap and then it went up. We also help you avoid the bad stocks. So Caesarstone, we upgraded that on March 6th. It's down 24% within a month. Voyager Therapeutics, we upgraded that on March 12th, down 22% in the next month. We get these stories all the time. We just had a meeting this morning. with one of our sales guys tracking stocks. He's like, David, as soon as the stock got upgraded to very attractive, bam, up 15%, 20%. It rips usually within a couple of days. People are watching what we're doing. Keep in mind, though, that to do this kind of work, it will require millions and millions of dollars every quarter. And so our professional membership gives you access to a level of depth of financial research that's considered a goldmine to some of the top investors in the world. Keep in mind, you can use this professional membership To invest with confidence, to maximize your profits, leverage a new AI that's built for you, not one to take advantage of you. Enjoy real due diligence. Go to sleep at night knowing that you're making investment decisions based on cold, hard data, not somebody's wild narrative. So you're probably wondering, what are we going to— what are we going to charge for this? What does the professional membership cost you? Well, it would cost you $2.1 million a quarter. just to maintain the data. And a lot of our clients pay us $10,000 a month for access to this. But we're not looking to make you— charge you anything like that. We're not going to give you that level of detail or overwhelm you with that kind of detail or data feeds. We're get— we're, you know, we typically charge $1,000 a month. But for a limited time, we're going to give you a special deal. We're going to give you 6 months as part of our special Q1 earnings season deal. 6 months for the price of 5 months. If you sign up today, we'll give you 1 month for free. So you can get 6 months of the professional membership for $5,000. Or do the smart thing, buy it for a full year, you get 3 months for free. And it's only $9,000. Think about that. For $9,000, you're able to actually understand the entire market and not just look at stocks. but screen for stocks. So for example, our screening tool is amazing. You want to go in and say, give me all the top stocks in the consumer non-cyclical sector because I want stocks that will be resistant to the recession and cyclicality. Within a few clicks, there's the list. Not a lot. Not a lot. You could also say, all right, I only want the stocks with the return on capital greater than 15%. Now the list got a little smaller. Point is, you can analyze the entire market for the best stocks. Look, nothing in food and drug and retailing for consumer cyclicals that meet that criteria. We can go to other sectors— industrials. There's that list. Point is, you can search the entire market to find the best stocks in a matter of seconds and track those stocks. That's what you get with professional membership. And that's not all you're getting. You also get all of our model portfolios, the most attractive stocks model portfolio, the most dangerous stocks model portfolio, maybe the most valuable one in a market where we're seeing everything so overvalued, the dividend growth stocks model portfolio, safest dividends model portfolio, and my favorite, the executive compensation aligned with ROIC model portfolio. Our rating updates inside our pro membership often uncover new market-beating opportunities, as we noticed this past year. I got to give you more examples, folks. Upgraded to very attractive April 19th. Over the next month, over the next month, up 38%. American Public Education upgraded last year. It happened. This happens all the time. After the, the, we got the 10-Q in August, up 21% in the next month. Consul Energy up 15% and remained on the very attractive list, and it's up 46%. Also, when things go the other way and they go unattractive and very unattractive, right down 24% after it got downgraded. Denny's, New Fortress Energy got downgraded after we parsed this 10-Q, down 24%. The other thing you get with the— with, with our professional membership is our long ideas. And our focus list model portfolio, this focus list has been an unbelievable outperformer over the last few years, both on the long side and on the short side. These are our best of our best picks. You also get access to the long ideas where we talk about how we identify focus list stocks. So, you know, you get to see our thinking. You know, we just published an amazing long idea on a very interesting consumer company. And I, you know, it's amazing. It's going to be added to the focus list, and you have access to read that report and in detail understand what's going on. You also get access to training. I'm going to give a free bonus training for everybody who signs up today. I'm going to do this on May 22nd. But every month, as a professional member, we get together as a group and we talk long ideas. We talk questions from the audience, ticker requests, etc. We go through and break it down every month, how to get the most out of the professional membership and, you know, where our best long ideas are. So it's one-time training and a regular training, super valuable training. It's better than a business school education, in my opinion. And people have paid me a lot for this. I had a— had one client pay for $10,000 for just one hour. So if you join this professional membership in the next few days, I'm going to be throwing in one other special deal. Those are our top 3 tariff-proof stock picks backed by our superior AI-driven financial models. We've handpicked 3 stocks we think are going to work in whatever market. In a world where trust in most US institutions has withered, whether it's big business, Congress, newspapers, you name it, the media, we're here to give you someplace you can trust. We're here to speak to trust, to authenticity, to honesty. And we hope that that's of value to you, especially concerning the fact that it generates alpha. But that's what New Constructs is really about. And we're really proud to see truth matters and generates alpha in this market. And if you want access to research and a system that can give you the truth, that's been vetted by prestigious institutions, that can be audited back to the source so that you know that we're never ever making anything up, everything's based on real data. Proven superior data, we're the place for you. We're not paid to promote or rate is attractive. We are only paid when we do good work. So let's talk about how much good work we do for you. When you add everything up, if you were to purchase it separately, it'd come up to $37,000. We're only asking you to give us $5,000. I'm sorry, when you add everything up, it'd be $42,000. We're only asking you to give us $5,000. That means you save $37,000. An incredible deal for honest research that generates alpha. What would cost you millions of dollars per quarter to even come close. All right, so I put the link into the chat. If you have any questions, please let me know. If you have any issues getting that link, let me know. If you're a new user and you're interested in the Pro subscription, you know how, you know, if you're worried about being able to access everything, don't worry, we got trainings. We've got the ability to book a demo with any of our experts at any time. So you can get as many demos as you want, or you can sign up for all the trainings. We're gonna, we're gonna make sure you know how to use the tool. Look, I want you to know how good my tool is. Like, I'm not here to hide it. I want to show it off as much as possible. I love driving it around. That's why I do these earnings watches. You know, at first I was like, oh my gosh, it's gonna be a lot of work. But guess what? I love taking out our Lamborghini of research and driving it around the track for people to watch. That's a good time for me. So there's no shortage of training. How do you find the best stocks inside a particular industry? I just showed you the stock screener. 2 seconds. Which industry? Which ratings? Go. It's an amazing tool. Are the very attractive and attractive stocks in the membership guaranteed to have a double or triple-digit gain in the next year? No. We make no guarantees. There are no guarantees in life except death and taxes. There's certainly not any guarantees in the stock market. Not any guarantees with our research. The best you can do in a world where the uncertain future is to maximize your risk-reward, have the best risk-reward in what you do. And that's exactly what our research focuses on, is risk-reward. What will we be covering in our monthly training calls? Whatever you want. Whatever you want. How to get the most out of the pro membership, long ideas, etc. Any other questions about our memberships and the Pro membership today? Now's the time to ask. All right, well, thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, for being with us today. I hope you have a great weekend. Take advantage of that special offer while it's still available. Thank you.